To All The Hpc Poster That Think Germany

[Deckard]

Right so by your logic the banking system is all hunky dory and nothing untoward has happened?

The Chinese are a dynamic power hungry country who have corened the world's manufacturing base. Yet you claim that finance is somehow beyond them?

Hubris. How odd.

One thing is manufacturing things on the cheap by cramming 1,000 poorly paid wage slaves in a sweat shop.

No one is disputing the Chinese are masters at that game.

Building a credible alternative to London/NY/Zurich in the financial services industry is a somewhat different proposition - particularly for a communist country, don't you think?

[GrillsBears]

As the previous poster noted you do not have a clue about the financial markets and how they work,

Also this is a thread about Germany, why bring china into it?

Aha bold assertions and yet no consideration of globalisation how convenient.

Who holds the world's greatest capital reserves currently? Do you believe such leverage is illusory? The hegemony enjoyed by Western powers is coming to an end. Only the truly foolish will deny it. As Primary and Secondary industries have been cast to the offshore winds so will tertiary and quaternary activity.

Yet a few Canutes will stand alone claiming that only those in the West understand markets and how they work.

Germany is interesting as an advanced economy still primarily concerned with secondary activity. They will be forced to change focus from West to East. However they still retain tooling and skills that differentiate then from others. What doe Britain have tooffer that can't be moved from London?

[ralphmalph]

Aha bold assertions and yet no consideration of globalisation how convenient.

Who holds the world's greatest capital reserves currently? Do you believe such leverage is illusory? The hegemony enjoyed by Western powers is coming to an end. Only the truly foolish will deny it. As Primary and Secondary industries have been cast to the offshore winds so will tertiary and quaternary activity.

Yet a few Canutes will stand alone claiming that only those in the West understand markets and how they work.

Germany is interesting as an advanced economy still primarily concerned with secondary activity. They will be forced to change focus from West to East. However they still retain tooling and skills that differentiate then from others. What doe Britain have tooffer that can't be moved from London?

You sound like Ed Balls, explain how china is going to help germany?

[OnlyMe]

One thing is manufacturing things on the cheap by cramming 1,000 poorly paid wage slaves in a sweat shop.

No one is disputing the Chinese are masters at that game.

Building a credible alternative to London/NY/Zurich in the financial services industry is a somewhat different proposition - particularly for a communist country, don't you think?

You also have to ask the question why a Chinese financial system would want to use money in the same way as London and New York bankers do.

I suggest not. They will take in the investment and pension money from elsewhere and invest it in tangible asses that will supply their own and other markets, buy up resources, buy up IP (if they feel they have to), equipment , brand names, access to non-screwed or growing markets further investing in making their economy more efficient and more productive than the competition. Sort of how the UK and US financial markets once acted before they just thought they could make more money more quickly by just hosing everybody with leverage.

[Deckard]

Aha bold assertions and yet no consideration of globalisation how convenient.

Who holds the world's greatest capital reserves currently? Do you believe such leverage is illusory? The hegemony enjoyed by Western powers is coming to an end. Only the truly foolish will deny it. As Primary and Secondary industries have been cast to the offshore winds so will tertiary and quaternary activity.

Yet a few Canutes will stand alone claiming that only those in the West understand markets and how they work.

Germany is interesting as an advanced economy still primarily concerned with secondary activity. They will be forced to change focus from West to East. However they still retain tooling and skills that differentiate then from others. What doe Britain have tooffer that can't be moved from London?

Jeez man, please stop wasting our time talking about things you do not understand.

"secondary activity"? where did you take your economics 101 class - in Beijing?

Edited May 15, 2009 by VoteWithYourFeet

[GrillsBears]

You sound like Ed Balls, explain how china is going to help germany?

I'm not saying it will. But the odd conceit that the eurozone can crash and burn whilst Britannia sails merrily on is just that a conceit.

The Euro is ******ed

Sterling is ******ed.

Not a race worth winning IMO

[kilroy]

You sound like Ed Balls, explain how china is going to help germany?

instead of lending money to UK citizens to buy BMWs, they are buying the bmws themselves.

[ralphmalph]

instead of lending money to UK citizens to buy BMWs, they are buying the bmws themselves.

But not enough to ofset the collapse in demaned in the debt culture junkies of US and UK.

Edited May 15, 2009 by ralphmalph

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

for me the markets will always tell the truth because they are efficient, whilst i know its a huge oversimplification due to corporate globalisation if you look at the dax current position compared to the FTSE it has fallen quite a bit less relative to the 2003 low, if you also take take the 30% GBP currency devaluation into account then it has hugely outperformed the FTSE. The markets are saying germany despite its obvious problems is a far better bet than the UK

Edited May 15, 2009 by T De Lempicka

[ralphmalph]

for me the markets will always tell the truth because they are efficient, whilst i know its a huge oversimplification due to corporate globalisation if you look at the dax current position compared to the FTSE it has fallen quite a bit less relative to the 2003 low, if you also take take the 30% GBP currency devaluation into account then it has hugely outperformed the FTSE. The markets are saying germany despite its obvious problems is a far better bet than the UK

The DAX is a noddy market, I suggest you have a look at the daily volume of shares treaded on bith markets.

[kilroy]

But not enough to ofset the collapse in demaned in the debt culture junkies of US and UK.

we can go swing with our debt-based consumer-led economies. German producers have already accepted the new reality and are cutting production; they are already resigned to a lower turnover, lower profit future. In the good times they developed good products and knowledge. We developed an economy which cannot function without more and more consumer debt. Germany household debt is miniscule compared to UK, and that is because they did not have to take out huge debt to purchase. Will indeed be tough for german households, will be a lot tougher for UK ones.

[kilroy]

The DAX is a noddy market, I suggest you have a look at the daily volume of shares treaded on bith markets.

ah, so the dax is just plain wrong because of the volume? I suggest you short the dax and go long the ftse as a pair trade......

[Game_Over]

I'm not saying it will. But the odd conceit that the eurozone can crash and burn whilst Britannia sails merrily on is just that a conceit.

The Euro is ******ed

Sterling is ******ed.

Not a race worth winning IMO

The difference is

Sterling will survive

The Euro wont

IMHO

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

The DAX is a noddy market, I suggest you have a look at the daily volume of shares treaded on bith markets.

maybe, but hte indexes are still the best indicator of a countries economic strength and progress over time, iyou could argue that the FTSE's greater participation actually is a further confirmation of its relative weakness

[mew too]

The DAX is a noddy market, I suggest you have a look at the daily volume of shares treaded on bith markets.

the dax futures are popular with traders and are heavily traded more so than the ftse, certainly in the past it has been far more volatile than the ftse going higher in the upmoves and lower in the down, trading these spreads can often work well

[FreeTrader]

I hope you're wrong Ralph, just so I don't have to hear Anatole Kaletsky saying "I told you so".

Seriously, this is a great thread subject, and it's a shame that posters feel the need to have a slanging match. What a turn out it would it be if Gordon Brown is right, and the UK really is better placed to see out this downturn. Germany didn't buy into the house price price boom, it ran a high current account surplus, and it has $140bn in foreign reserves, of which nearly $100bn is in gold.

The UK meanwhile went mad with the credit card. Record household debt, impending massive public debt, banks with liabilities at 400% of UK GDP, and a current account deficit despite the high earnings from the city (and with declining oil production we face a constant headwind with international trade).

It's a fascinating contrast. I for one haven't got a clue which country will fare better, but I suspect it very much depends on how we're governed over the next decade rather than where we stand now. Also, I think it must be said that the UK is arguably better placed with its labour laws for us to become poorer faster, if you get what I mean. The hardest thing for Europe to accept over the coming decades is that our relative living standards must drop.

Edit: fair --> fare

Edited May 15, 2009 by FreeTrader

[Ah-so]

Aha bold assertions and yet no consideration of globalisation how convenient.

Who holds the world's greatest capital reserves currently? Do you believe such leverage is illusory? The hegemony enjoyed by Western powers is coming to an end. Only the truly foolish will deny it. As Primary and Secondary industries have been cast to the offshore winds so will tertiary and quaternary activity.

Yet a few Canutes will stand alone claiming that only those in the West understand markets and how they work.

Germany is interesting as an advanced economy still primarily concerned with secondary activity. They will be forced to change focus from West to East. However they still retain tooling and skills that differentiate then from others. What doe Britain have tooffer that can't be moved from London?

Most of the arguments you use could equally have been applied to Japan about 20 years (and were I seem to remember).

What does the UK offer that China does not? Here are a few suggestions off the top of my head:

1) It is in a useful place, not perched precariously on the edge of the Pacific in an impractical time zone. Europeans can fly there within a couple of hours or just pick up the phone and find us at work, not tucked up in bed.

2) English is a native language here.

3) China's economy is focussed on manufacturing and currently their banking system supports that. The skill base is limited.

4) London's role as the centre of finance has grown organically over centuries and has seen off challenges from other cities, such as Frankfurt. You may as well write that there is no reason why China should not supplant Hollywood as the centre of film production because they can do everything cheaper.

5) In a single business day you can make deals with both Asia and the Americas out of London. China cannot even speak to New York in the same day, being 13 hours ahead and cannot trade in the same business day because of the dateline.

Shanghai and Hong Kong will no doubt grow as domestic and regional finance centres and perhaps some business will be lost to them, but I will eat my hat if China actually supplants London's position. Tell you what, I will admit I am wrong when Lloyd's of London shuts up shop over here and moves, bell and all, over to Shanghai.

[agmoldham]

What's the betting they will carry this situation rather than bury it under a pile of currency?

They will scale back production but they will still have productive capacity and functioning companies that manuacture product that the rest of the world will buy.

We however will just have a steaming pile of debt and nothing to repay it with in the future.

Agree totally with this. It seems a little unfair on Germany that the seizure of the Financial system should wreck their manufacturing. In a few years time the manufacturing demand will recover, but I expect the Financial Services sector to contract for decades to come. I'm not sure how many of our bankers will take to working on the production line.

[kilroy]

Agree totally with this. It seems a little unfair on Germany that the seizure of the Financial system should wreck their manufacturing. In a few years time the manufacturing demand will recover, but I expect the Financial Services sector to contract for decades to come. I'm not sure how many of our bankers will take to working on the production line.

what production line?

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

I hope you're wrong Ralph, just so I don't have to hear Anatole Kaletsky saying "I told you so".

Seriously, this is a great thread subject, and it's a shame that posters feel the need to have a slanging match. What a turn out it would it be if Gordon Brown is right, and the UK really is better placed to see out this downturn. Germany didn't buy into the house price price boom, it ran a high current account surplus, and it has $140bn in foreign reserves, of which nearly $100bn is in gold.

The UK meanwhile went mad with the credit card. Record household debt, impending massive public debt, banks with liabilities at 400% of UK GDP, and a current account deficit despite the high earnings from the city (and with declining oil production we face a constant headwind with international trade).

It's a fascinating contrast. I for one haven't got a clue which country will fair better, but I suspect it very much depends on how we're governed over the next decade rather than where we stand now. Also, I think it must be said that the UK is arguably better placed with its labour laws for us to become poorer faster, if you get what I mean. The hardest thing for Europe to accept over the coming decades is that our relative living standards must drop.

i also think Germany are far better placed to deal with a downturn because they have had experience recently due to reunification, they are relatively frugal, all the UK's politicians and public know is prosperity, this is a new experience for them

Edited May 15, 2009 by T De Lempicka

[mew too]

Neue Sparsamkeit, the german people are less entrenched in the debt habit than us and are perhaps embracing the 'new frugality', this will naturally impact business and their economy, with recession still in their memories it's probably not difficult to cut back on spending and save for that rainy day, they are for sure better placed to weather this, socially and economically than the UK

[council dweller]

So why are BMW and MERC sales down 40% year on year, Oh yeah because china can not make up for the broke consumers in USA and Europe.

....and Japan. A big market for Merc.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9...;show_article=1

[Pick It Down]

Germany didn't buy into the house price price boom, it ran a high current account surplus, and it has $140bn in foreign reserves, of which nearly $100bn is in gold.

The UK meanwhile went mad with the credit card. Record household debt, impending massive public debt, banks with liabilities at 400% of UK GDP, and a current account deficit despite the high earnings from the city (and with declining oil production we face a constant headwind with international trade).

It's a fascinating contrast. I for one haven't got a clue which country will fare better, but I suspect it very much depends on how we're governed over the next decade rather than where we stand now.

Very good post.

Incentives are the key. In Britain, we are incentivised to be lazy See Yous.

[indirectapproach]

There is a plethora of evidence to say Germany is more stuffed than the UK. Germany is usually more stuffed than the UK. The Germans beat the British at mass produced consumer durables, mass produced cars, Ruritanian uniforms, goose stepping, genocide and classical music.

We beat them hands down at everything else and by that I mean about everything else except maybe football but they are too useless to even get a game against us at cricket or rugby.

[Pick It Down]

There is a plethora of evidence to say Germany is more stuffed than the UK. Germany is usually more stuffed than the UK. The Germans beat the British at mass produced consumer durables, mass produced cars, Ruritanian uniforms, goose stepping, genocide and classical music.

We beat them hands down at everything else and by that I mean about everything else except maybe football but they are too useless to even get a game against us at cricket or rugby.

I can testifty that that is because they are no use with their hands. Girls included.