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mew too

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  1. the top will lag the Stock Market by 2-3 months, so the top should be in feb or mar then let the hpc continue
  2. and like most boomers - expecting someone else to pay for their retirement
  3. Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression - Robert Prechter 2nd edition just released http://www.amazon.co.uk/Conquer-Crash-Survive-Deflationary-Depression/dp/047056797X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258311069&sr=8-1
  4. it boils down to what you want from life, is it to be mortgage free, I mean at 39 at 40ish you're not too old to work, and I would imagine you don't want to retire yet, so is a small mortgage and living in the SE possible? The children play a part here too, you haven't said how old they are, but my 2 are at infants school now and we rent in a small village in kent, we choose it mainly for the school and my children love this life, the countryside is healthy for them, it's a small community and they have lots of nice friends as do we. If your wife has worked in London for 15 years I would say moving so far away would be too much of a change (if she's anything like my missus!), once your kids are settled and happy - she will be too - so you need to find a nice area with good schools in SE (there are quite a few) and pay the price to live here or move north and accept a change of lifestyle from the London one and have less need for money ....or carry on renting but in an area where you want to stay with a view to buying in the near future. The latter is working for us, and even in the expensive south east we manage to save more everyday...It's a lifestyle choice
  5. CIT Group Inc. plans to file for bankruptcy as soon as Sunday afternoon, said people familiar with the matter, in a high-stakes restructuring intended to keep the doors open at one of the U.S.'s largest small-business lenders. CIT's board was meeting about the likely filing early Sunday afternoon, these people said, and the company expected to seek Chapter 11 protection in New York in a matter of hours. The lender expected to have considerable support from creditors for its "prepackaged" reorganization, which could allow CIT to have its plan approved quickly and emerge from bankruptcy by the end of the year, other people familiar with the matter said. The filing comes after a previous debt-exchange offer made to CIT's bondholders failed. But CIT garnered broad support for a prepackaged bankruptcy, people familiar with the matter said. The $2.3 billion in taxpayer money spent to save CIT is likely to be wiped out, as the lender prepares for the filing. In a move smoothing its restructuring, the company said Friday that it had persuaded billionaire investor Carl Icahn to support its prepackaged bankruptcy plan. Mr. Icahn, who wanted to push CIT into liquidation, failed to persuade other bondholders to derail CIT's restructuring plan. With $71 billion in assets, CIT would have the fifth-largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, trailing only those of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc., Worldcom Inc. and General Motors Corp. CIT's Utah bank, which has about $10 billion in assets, wouldn't be part of the bankruptcy filing. [Carl Icahn] Carl Icahn One loser from a bankruptcy would be the U.S. Treasury. Late last year it injected $2.3 billion of funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to help stabilize the lender, which was weighed down by billions of dollars of bad student loans and subprime mortgages. The government investment is likely to be wiped out, said people familiar with the matter. Common shares would likely drop to zero, too, these people said. Starting last year the Treasury invested upward of $400 billion in a variety of companies, from auto makers to insurers, to shore up their finances. A number of those companies, such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley Inc., have repaid the bailout money. A bankruptcy of CIT would be the first time the government recorded a loss on one of its bailout investments. Taxpayers could have lost more, though. Despite likely losing its $2.3 billion investment, the U.S. government saved possibly billions more in losses when it rebuffed further bailout requests over the summer, after concluding CIT's demise wouldn't threaten the broad financial system. A filing could also be a blow to some of the tens of thousands of small- to medium-size businesses that are customers of the century-old lender. Unlike public corporations -- which enjoy access to reinvigorated credit markets -- small borrowers are finding capital remains scarce. Even if CIT emerges intact, its lending capacity could drop to less than 20% of what it was two years ago, according to an estimate by Brian Charles, a debt analyst at R.W. Pressprich & Co. CIT made just under $40 billion in new commercial loans in 2007, not including an additional $45 billion for trade financing, according to company figures. That plunged to just $4.4 billion in the first half of 2009. CIT's bankruptcy filing "is a risky proposition," said Donald Workman, head of the bankruptcy practice at law firm Baker Hostetler. "It's far from a certainty that they will be able to exit... because of all the challenges a financial services company will face, particularly in this market." Other restructuring experts said CIT's plan puts it in good position to speed through court. "If you have a deal pre-negotiated, you have creditors locked up and you put out the right message ... companies can actually get fixed through bankruptcy and not lose their customers," said Jonathan Henes of Kirkland & Ellis LLP. Under the bankruptcy plan, senior bondholders would trade their current debt for new debt maturing later worth about 70 cents on the dollar. They would get 92.5% of the equity in a restructured CIT. Junior bondholders would get the remaining equity in a reorganized CIT, but no new debt. Large bondholders -- including investment firms Centerbridge Partners, Silver Point Capital, Capital Research & Management and Oaktree Capital Management -- gave CIT rescue loans over the summer to buy it time to restructure. They and other bondholders have committed $4.5 billion more to see it through. CIT overcame one hurdle Friday, when Mr. Icahn reached an agreement with CIT, pledging to support the lender's bankruptcy plan and providing $1 billion in backup financing. CIT will tap the funds only if the $4.5 billion loan proves insufficient. "The prepack is giving up control and putting fair restrictions on capital use. That, to me, is a great victory for bondholders," Mr. Icahn said in an interview. If CIT emerges from bankruptcy protection, the company still needs the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to lift a "cease-and-desist" order limiting its ability to raise deposits at its Utah bank, a key to implementing its new plan. A person familiar with the negotiations said CIT had received "positive" indications that the FDIC would approve all its requests, but cautioned a deal had yet to be reached. An FDIC spokesman declined to comment.
  6. Try this one http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125709781695721315.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
  7. "However, the proposals have caused alarm among Treasury officials who fear any increased spending could upset the financial markets, making it harder to service the growing national debt." rock and a hard place, we've arrived at that point and darling knows it
  8. down on monday as we follow weakness in asia, the risk averse trade is back and there are big sellers out there, on friday the market didn't follow through on thursdays move up, indicating a change, also the vix spiked 25ct indicating more options coverage, faith in the central bankers to save the markets in faltering and we have a lot of faith priced in. if it bounces, it will be from lower as lots want to sell now from a higher level, the bounce imo will come later in the week 3150 on the ftse before christmas is possible
  9. The correction of the early ninties was just that, a correction in the continuing up-trend. With hindsight it is clear. The recent 2008 move downward bulls argue was another correction in the continuing up-trend and now we resume to new highs. The bears argue this recent move upwards is a bull-trap and then we continue lower. If the bears are correct, and I believe they are and will be proven so soon, then the bulls should be very worried as this recent correction/bull trap will confirm a change of trend in the housing market and how low it goes - nobody knows, but one thing is for sure a change of trend is not a correction and it will be a length of time before a bottom is reached. Time will tell and I think that time is very soon.
  10. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timcollard/100015299/oh-no-house-prices-are-going-up-again/ I see from today’s papers that there has been a minuscule rise in year-on-year house prices. A fairly minor statistic, you might think – funny how that’s front-page news. But, of course, in papers of conservative inclination it always is – Private Eye has a running joke about it. In reality, house price fluctuations should only be of interest to those actually on the point of buying or selling, which is quite a small minority. But we know that there are vast swathes of Middle Britain where the state of the housing market is regarded as an indicator of financial, social and moral well-being, if not as a direct correlative to the size of the male Middle British appendage. See daytime television for confirmation of this. Actually, for Pete’s sake, don’t. And don’t you just want to plank anyone who talks about “properties”? It’s a house, you plonker, it’s a BLOODY HOUSE! It’s for LIVING IN! We’re not playing Monopoly here!...
  11. i dunno, somethings changed, am leaning more to a continuation of the selling on monday, the vix is up 25pct today, the demand for options hedging is high, the market ain't buying the stimulus anymore, the gdpfigs were an excuse for officials to ramp, but underlying consumer confidence is down, theres a few people on bloomberg calling for a crash, the market is spooked
  12. there's been a def shift in the markets in last few days, the risk-off trade is back, as the gains from one-day wonder yesterday are totally reversed, how many times has this happened since march low = zero
  13. 1929 crash anniversary alert, probably get a rally!
  14. Actually Red Karma your advice to write a letter to the Vendor about the agent is one we may pursue, as they clearly are manipulating us and we are loathe to continue using them. Me and the missus'll talk about it tomorrow, its been a long evening of thinking too much about houses and my head hurts...nite all n thanks
  15. no worries mate, we have lived and learned a little today
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