toodimm Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I remember reading somewhere that one idea about the psychology behind bubbles is the idea of the greater fool. That is, while there is still a greater fool out there than yourself, then it is rational to buy. The really beautiful thing about the crash in house prices is that it allows us to pinpoint, with accuracy, who the greatest fools are amongst our peers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I remember reading somewhere that one idea about the psychology behind bubbles is the idea of the greater fool. That is, while there is still a greater fool out there than yourself, then it is rational to buy.The really beautiful thing about the crash in house prices is that it allows us to pinpoint, with accuracy, who the greatest fools are amongst our peers. It depends toodles, if the government rty to inflate away debt as a result the renters and savers will be punished too...the system makes a fool of many Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubai Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) It depends toodles, if the government rty to inflate away debt as a result the renters and savers will be punished too...the system makes a fool of many Bob, Your ar5e is quite off-putting. Can you put some undies on? Edited January 9, 2009 by Dubai Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the-sign-jacker Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) I remember reading somewhere that one idea about the psychology behind bubbles is the idea of the greater fool. That is, while there is still a greater fool out there than yourself, then it is rational to buy.The really beautiful thing about the crash in house prices is that it allows us to pinpoint, with accuracy, who the greatest fools are amongst our peers. this is one of the things that convinces me to think GOLD. soon the people with the saving rates will work out whats going on and there will be a rush to gold. also, the last peak of gold was in 1982, some 3 years after the start of that recession. it rose to $850 at the moment the sheeple savers are waking up to the fact what the government are doing with their savings. also the £ is falling, which adds value to the gold. so far buying gold due to currency fluctuations has risen 25% against £s since nov 08. thats a massive 25% PROFIT in 3 months. $850 in 1982 is around $3000 by today's standards. gold at $850oz is dirt cheap. and the fools have yet to abandon paper-bank deals and rush in and the government seem to be intent on printing / deflating the value of the debts by deflating the currency. so far its all on track for a gold rush. prob 1-2 years from today. however, with the speed of everything in this particular crisis that time frame could be halved. theres gold in them there hills, and smiths, and jones's..... Edited January 9, 2009 by the-sign-jacker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelly Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Bob,Your ar5e is quite off-putting. Can you put some undies on? I was thinkin that but I think they are round his ankles, might be a little gay bear-ness about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) That is why the shares in housebuilders have been climbing - because of the 'greater fools' wanting to buy the shares. But 'greater fool' is only a temporary condition, lifted when you sell to an even greater fool. Then, you are wise. Ultimately, the only fool is the one at the top of the chain when values collapse. It's like playing pass the parcel when the parcel contains dog poo. Edited January 9, 2009 by blankster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I was thinkin that but I think they are round his ankles, might be a little gay bear-ness about it It's a metaphor for this country. The uk had too many dips into the credit punchbowl. The party got out of hand. Now it is luring face down in it's own urine, and to top it off someone might be about to have a go on it's @rse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotMyHouse Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 this is one of the things that convinces me to think GOLD. Sounds like the media attention phase is getting started. Telegraph at it. Yes, there will undoubtedly be a bubble at some point, but I don't think it has happened yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 My sister and her hubby, both highly qualified people with Maths MSc's (they are qualified actuaries) bought a flat in Maida Vale around Easter last year.... after having been renting for the 5 years previously. Biggest fools I personally know. My ex-flatmate moved out in Q3 2007. Stretched herself way past the limit to buy an a 1bed ex-council flat in some Brixton estate. She's going to be regretting that for the rest of her life. Another friend, newly qualified lawyer, bought Mid 2008. She's probably seen her hard-saved 60k deposit evapourate since then. And just to rub salt into the wound, they were recently broken into. All of them hardworking and intelligent people... they just failed to see that this was inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
contractor Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 My sister and her hubby, both highly qualified people with Maths MSc's (they are qualified actuaries) bought a flat in Maida Vale around Easter last year.... after having been renting for the 5 years previously. Biggest fools I personally know.My ex-flatmate moved out in Q3 2007. Stretched herself way past the limit to buy an a 1bed ex-council flat in some Brixton estate. She's going to be regretting that for the rest of her life. Another friend, newly qualified lawyer, bought Mid 2008. She's probably seen her hard-saved 60k deposit evapourate since then. And just to rub salt into the wound, they were recently broken into. All of them hardworking and intelligent people... they just failed to see that this was inevitable. A lot of these qualified people smack of arrogance and believe that they could never make a bad decision. Van's anectode is a case in point. It's quite possible to be great in your field but suck at everything else, including common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tummybanana Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 It's a metaphor for this country. The uk had too many dips into the credit punchbowl. The party got out of hand. Now it is luring face down in it's own urine, and to top it off someone might be about to have a go on it's @rse. There is a saying in Brazil - "Drunk arses have no owners." Spoken by a judge throwing out of court the claim by a man at an orgy that he was taken advantage of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 A lot of these qualified people smack of arrogance and believe that they could never make a bad decision. Van's anectode is a case in point. It's quite possible to be great in your field but suck at everything else, including common sense. Indeed. A lot of them just suffer from the stupidity and impetuosity of youth, as well. No doubt when they are old, they will have the wisdom and experience they lack now and have good advice for their children. However, an old head on young shoulders is a rare commodity these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 A lot of these qualified people smack of arrogance and believe that they could never make a bad decision. Van's anectode is a case in point. It's quite possible to be great in your field but suck at everything else, including common sense. I'm still stuck in 2008. My sister&hubby actually brought the flat at Easter 2007. The worst, worst, possible time imo. If they had to sell today, they would probably loose 25-30% on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ignorant Steve Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I bought late 2005 having STR'd in London 2004. So I'm fairly ignorant. Not quite as ignorant as some friends who have recently purchased 2 houses; Notting Hill and Dorset. They've just learned that their step dad had taken out a huge IO mortgage on one of his houses to fund his retirement. He died unexpectedly last year - they have until Sept this year to find £450K or lose a lovely house worth £2 million (give or take a million!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Another very big fool was a girl a work. Happy-go-lucky hippy type. Bought a house mid 2008 with her partner. 25 now, so all grown up. £215k or thereabouts. Pregnancy & marriage followed in the next few months. Q3 08. Laid off. Oops. Now being visibly preggers, no one is going to give her another job any time soon. Ironic thing again, is that we work in asset-management/analytics software, and our clients are major Banks, so you would have thought they would have some financial acumen. Not so. Can you say fux0red? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) My sister and her hubby, both highly qualified people with Maths MSc's (they are qualified actuaries) bought a flat in Maida Vale around Easter last year.... after having been renting for the 5 years previously. Biggest fools I personally know.My ex-flatmate moved out in Q3 2007. Stretched herself way past the limit to buy an a 1bed ex-council flat in some Brixton estate. She's going to be regretting that for the rest of her life. Another friend, newly qualified lawyer, bought Mid 2008. She's probably seen her hard-saved 60k deposit evapourate since then. And just to rub salt into the wound, they were recently broken into. All of them hardworking and intelligent people... they just failed to see that this was inevitable. I have seen, & am seeing so much of this Van. Bizarre to see highly qualified people just don't understand what's going on. Imagine how many people would never get the Bsc in Common Sense Degree, that's probab;y why they will never offer one. That's also why they don't teach anything about banking, where money comes from, what it is, what debt is etc..... why do thye call it a credit card (your in debt the first day you use it, you not in credit) when it should be called a debt card. edited - also, why do people think it's great to have a credit card that allows them to get more debt than others judged by the colour of the card. complete fools. I applied for a credit card a couple of years ago, they sent it with a £8,500 limit. When I phoned up to ask about changing the limit, the girl said she would have to speak with a supervisor to see. When the supervisor came onto the phone & asked why I wanted a larger limit, I said I didn't, I wanted to lower it to £1500 for emergencies. There was a bit of a pause & then she said the lowest limit I could have on this card was £3500. They both assumed that I wanted an increased limit. That's why the UK is fooked, everyone has just become accustomed to credit debt. Edited January 9, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zilly Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Another very big fool was a girl a work. Happy-go-lucky hippy type.Bought a house mid 2008 with her partner. 25 now, so all grown up. £215k or thereabouts. Pregnancy & marriage followed in the next few months. Q3 08. Laid off. Oops. Now being visibly preggers, no one is going to give her another job any time soon. Ironic thing again, is that we work in asset-management/analytics software, and our clients are major Banks, so you would have thought they would have some financial acumen. Not so. Can you say fux0red? Regardless of intelligence level, the vast majority of human beings are driven by the need to be part of, and approved of, by the 'herd'. Sheeple in HPC forum terms. Being outside of the herd can result in ridicule and criticism as those of us who don't own piles of bricks have found out. Home ownership in the UK isn't just a matter of owning a home. It's regarded as behaving 'correctly' to have a mortgage; to be a 'homeowner' (even though you aren't). Anyone who hasn't, is a little strange. It's a great piece of brainwashing and has ensured enormous bank profits for a very long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postigol Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 My sister and her hubby, both highly qualified people with Maths MSc's (they are qualified actuaries) bought a flat in Maida Vale around Easter last year.... after having been renting for the 5 years previously. Biggest fools I personally know.My ex-flatmate moved out in Q3 2007. Stretched herself way past the limit to buy an a 1bed ex-council flat in some Brixton estate. She's going to be regretting that for the rest of her life. Another friend, newly qualified lawyer, bought Mid 2008. She's probably seen her hard-saved 60k deposit evapourate since then. And just to rub salt into the wound, they were recently broken into. All of them hardworking and intelligent people... they just failed to see that this was inevitable. I have lots of friends and even family in this situation - as a demographic we are late 20s, well-educated (many privately and Oxbridge), professional (lawyers, accountants) and generally earning well. This is one of the saddest aspects of the whole sorry affair IMO. Lots of otherwise bright and certainly decent people that didn't see this coming, and got sucked into the bottom of the pyramid. Yes, they made mistakes, and got it wrong, but really, you shouldn't have to spend months on a website full of apocalyptic nutters to help decide whether you want to buy a house or not. These people just bought houses because they were the sort of age where one does such a thing, and wanted to get on with their lives, and they were prepared to stretch themselves, work hard and make sacrifices to do so. This is the sort of attitude anyone from a traditional middle class background would have, because it is drummed into you. "Just do what me and your mother did son, it's always tought the first few years, we never had any spare cash or holidays either" etc etc you all know the patter. I didn't buy a house because when I looked into it I thought nah, that's way too expensive, and my rent is much cheaper. I'd rather p*ss my disposable up the wall and have a good time for a few years. Accidentally one of the best decisions I could ever have made. It's all just such a load of boll*x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toodimm Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) why do thye call it a credit card because it extends a line of credit from the issuer to you. Edited January 9, 2009 by toodimm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 There is a saying in Brazil - "Drunk arses have no owners."Spoken by a judge throwing out of court the claim by a man at an orgy that he was taken advantage of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) Hi! Me, buying just before the peak even though Ive been a regular poster since 2004 . I also banked with icesave My Neighbour keeps dropping his price, still along way to go before he reaches my price Edited January 9, 2009 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I was ridiculed by many of my colleagues and competitors (Surveyors) for a few years. Quite a few bought, many bought flats. 2006/7 was a tough year or so when the beast decided on one last push before the crunch. Some of them deserve, though quite a few were hoodwinked lie the rest of UK.plc. These days I feel pity rather than Schadenfreude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Taeper Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Bob,Your ar5e is quite off-putting. Can you put some undies on? I thought it was a cycle rack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bimyo Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 I applied for a credit card a couple of years ago, they sent it with a £8,500 limit. When I phoned up to ask about changing the limit, the girl said she would have to speak with a supervisor to see. When the supervisor came onto the phone & asked why I wanted a larger limit, I said I didn't, I wanted to lower it to £1500 for emergencies. There was a bit of a pause & then she said the lowest limit I could have on this card was £3500. They both assumed that I wanted an increased limit. That's why the UK is fooked, everyone has just become accustomed to credit debt. Just before Christmas I was passing through a large shopping estate in a none-too-wealthy provincial area. Woman of about 30 doing a promotion, pretty, bouncy, asked the hook question, Sir, do you have a credit card? When I said no she looked at me like I'd said something obscene, then her expression changed to disbelief, as if I was lying to avoid a charity collector. A couple of them standing there looking respectable and suburban, never having given a thought to the fact that their job was to enslave people and steal their lives from them. And it is all so absolutely normal, and it is what passes for industry and hard work here. It gave me a deep sense of despair which I think will stay with me till Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bimyo Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 really, you shouldn't have to spend months on a website full of apocalyptic nutters to help decide whether you want to buy a house or not. true the distance between a life of wage-slavery on the one hand and getting by with a bit of freedom on the other was just much, much too small, and had very little to do with merit or talent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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