Realistbear Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columni...ing-to-win.html It's the Europhiles versus reality, and reality is going to win Milton Friedman was right to predict that the euro might not survive a recession, notes Simon Heffer. Simon Heffer Last Updated: 8:36AM GMT 04 Mar 2009 Comments 18 | Comment on this article A Euro sign in Frankfurt The single currency may not survive the recession Photo: Reuters During the current crisis we have several times heard invoked the wisdom of Milton Friedman about the unfeasibility of the euro as a currency surviving a recession. In an interview not long before his death three years ago, Friedman said: "The euro is going to be a big source of problems, not a source of help. The euro has no precedent. To the best of my knowledge, there has never been a monetary union, putting out a fiat currency, composed of independent states. There have been unions based on gold or silver, but not on fiat money – money tempted to inflate – put out by politically independent entities." It is what lies below the surface of this observation that is putting not just the euro, but the entire confection of the European Union, under such intense pressure. Any recession would bring into play tensions between idealism and nationalism: the desire by those who pilot the European project to maintain the confection for as long as possible and as intact as possible, that it might come out on the other side of this economic horror bloodied but unbowed; and the inevitable identification of hundreds of millions who stand outside the fantasy world of the political class with their own nation state, their own nationals and their own national interest. Without a degree of coercion beyond what even this undemocratic, Sovietised swindle has attempted in the recent past, the national interest will in the end prevail. .../ Incipient nationalism and a long history of being unable to cope with svere ecnomic downturns repeating? The author of this has been looking at my old posts? Gold is next to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 (edited) Gold is next to go. UP. it is indeed. Perhaps after a small retracement (all, TA speak for going down a bit ) you still holding all those dollars RB ? Edited March 4, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Another "Euro is Dead" article in the Telegraph. Is it a slow news day or are they desperate to fill space due to the drop in advertising? I think we should be told........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted March 4, 2009 Author Share Posted March 4, 2009 UP. it is indeed. Perhaps after a small retracement (all, TA speak for going down a bit ) you still holding all those dollars RB ? 2/3rds $ and 1/3rd pounds to buy a house in about a year or so! Gold at 909--down over $100 in the last few days might be the start of a longer term trend in that direction? The world is becoming bubble averse and deflation looks like winning where cash will be king for a few years as everything else tanks. Anyone buy gold above $950 recently? Euro is the most dangerous bet now. With Germany reeling what else will hold it up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 2/3rds $ and 1/3rd pounds to buy a house in about a year or so!Gold at 909--down over $100 in the last few days might be the start of a longer term trend in that direction? The world is becoming bubble averse and deflation looks like winning where cash will be king for a few years as everything else tanks. Anyone buy gold above $950 recently? Euro is the most dangerous bet now. With Germany reeling what else will hold it up? well, you've paid your money & made your choice. we will see who's right then eh..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methinkshe Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Without a degree of coercion beyond what even this undemocratic, Sovietised swindle has attempted in the recent past,... And I wouldn't bet against it with this fascist NuLab government that would control our every thought given half a chance......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I personally think that gold at some point is going to lose a lot of value that it will never recover. Most of its value comes from its historically perceived value and the fact that people hoard it due to its perceived value - if people stop doing this then it'll come crashing down pretty rapidly. what will big businesses invest in right now then ? name the asset or commodity or anything else in fact... please don't say the stock market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Eurobear RB may have been right after all? this doesn't make up for your awful prediction of gold at $300! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 The euro is the best placed o fall the currencies because there is no political centre. Bernanke or King would have alreayd inflated it to atoms, it's harder to do that when peopel can walk off. It's still a giant pile of shite though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Gold is next to go. ahhh, this makes things difficult now. You see, you have proved one of the best contrary indicators on here; when you called $300 gold before it proved an excellent time to buy. However, the problem is I anticipate further price weakness and sideways movement for a while before things take off again. Well I did, until you came along with your buy signals! ps - oil may have found the bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Concrete Jungle Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 what will big businesses invest in right now then ?name the asset or commodity or anything else in fact... please don't say the stock market. How about property in Margate and the Reigate and Banstead areas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I personally think that gold at some point is going to lose a lot of value that it will never recover. Most of its value comes from its historically perceived value and the fact that people hoard it due to its perceived value - if people stop doing this then it'll come crashing down pretty rapidly. This perception is well founded. It has paid fares and bribes remarkably well in the past. It is the favoured currency of the last aircraft/ship to leave the chaos when the local paper money is laughed at. A few Sovs, dollars, Swiff Francs and Yen probably still makes sense to the prudently paranoid. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 (edited) "The euro is going to be a big source of problems, not a source of help. What I don't understand is this: there is a lot of talk about the Euro failing - but no explanation of what that means. Do we mean that the Euro will fail through inflation (that sounds likely) or through deflation (which I can't picture.) I can imagine the Euro being economically damaging to countries that have adopted it - because their governments are less able to manipulate the currency to meet the objectives of government planning... but that is rather different to the currency itself failing. Do the arguments make sense to anyone? Edited March 4, 2009 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 (edited) Perhaps after a small retracement (all, TA speak for going down a bit ) What's TA speak for "oh my shit!" ? That which dare not speak its name seems to be meandering toward the $905 support like a doodlebug that's lost its doodle, and I suspect if it crosses that Rubicon it's going to migrate due south for the summer; not that I'm into the whole tea-leaf gag or anything, but some of my best friends... Edited March 4, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 RB, you have said sell gold every single time it goes down. So eventually you will be correct but been wrong so many times it doesn't matter. Starting from late 2006 I think? This is just about gold (which I am out of) not anything else RB says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 What's TA speak for "oh my shit!" ?That which dare not speak its name seems to be meandering toward the $905 support like a doddlebug that's lost its doodle, and I suspect if it crosses that Rubicon it's going to migrate due south for the summer; not that I'm into the whole tea-leaf gag or anything, but some of my best friends... yes, fair comment. However we don't all buy our gold in dollars, but your point is a very valid one PM. It will not break that support level imo. Let's see eh..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolf Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 2/3rds $ and 1/3rd pounds to buy a house in about a year or so!Gold at 909--down over $100 in the last few days might be the start of a longer term trend in that direction? The world is becoming bubble averse and deflation looks like winning where cash will be king for a few years as everything else tanks. Anyone buy gold above $950 recently? Euro is the most dangerous bet now. With Germany reeling what else will hold it up? Gold is still bouncing around inside an upward trend channel for the last 4 months. It's at the lower end of that channel right now, the next week should be quite telling. I would expect it to either bounce up again soon or take a turn down. I really doubt that it will maintain this price though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 yes, fair comment. However we don't all buy our gold in dollars, but your point is a very valid one PM. It will not break that support level imo. Let's see eh..... no TA was used or harmed in the making of this prediction, only common sense, experience & gut feeling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr ray Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columni...ing-to-win.htmlsnip............. .............snip Gold is next to go. RB, You are predicting collapse of a major reserve fiat currency and gold. Surely if the euro collapses there would be a mad scramble to get into Yen and gold and maybe Dollars as safe havens. Probably not Sterling. The gold bugs are keen on gold because of the risk of currency collapse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Eurobear RB may have been right after all? Ego... ego! Remember, thou are not worthy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 RB,You are predicting collapse of a major reserve fiat currency and gold. Surely if the euro collapses there would be a mad scramble to get into Yen and gold and maybe Dollars as safe havens. Probably not Sterling. The gold bugs are keen on gold because of the risk of currency collapse he's banking on sterling & the dollar winning & the euro & gold losing. he is very, very wrong. The Euro medium term is also doomed though, but not until Sterling is toasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 2/3rds $ and 1/3rd pounds to buy a house in about a year or so! whooppie f****** doo! pretty much everything has gone up relative to houses. it is a housing crash afterall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolf Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 RB,You are predicting collapse of a major reserve fiat currency and gold. Surely if the euro collapses there would be a mad scramble to get into Yen and gold and maybe Dollars as safe havens. Probably not Sterling. The gold bugs are keen on gold because of the risk of currency collapse Exactly. I am of the view that the fundamentals dominate and that gold will go to 3000 dollars an ounce in the next few years. Technicals may help you time your trades in the short term if you are so inclined to do that. But the fundamentals cannot be denied. Some people think that gold is overvalued based on long term historical averages. Well these are historically some of the worst economic times we have had! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 What's TA speak for "oh my shit!" ?That which dare not speak its name seems to be meandering toward the $905 support like a doodlebug that's lost its doodle, and I suspect if it crosses that Rubicon it's going to migrate due south for the summer; not that I'm into the whole tea-leaf gag or anything, but some of my best friends... hey PM, where have you put yer peso's then ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamies1stgoal Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Again with all the bad news relating to the Euro states I would have expected the Euro to have fallen in value in the last month against the £. But then again that probably indicates how devalued the pound remains. If a Euro state (eg Eire) decides to walk from the Euro and goes back to punts - will this strengthen the remaining members and currency on the basis one of the weak has left? Perhaps the Euro will remain for France Germany Benelux, ...and Spain, Eire, Italy go there own way. Can't see how that would make the Euro collapse, if the strong states stay in. It will play merry hell with European integration though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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