Annual house prices up 5.1pc with 'no signs of significant corrections in the market' (HM Land Registry and ONS)

[adarmo]

8 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

Any views about the ONS data? Or just crap about Diane Abbott, some spelling mistakes and the hope somebody will rise to the bait and help you de-rail the thread?

Had your number for a while, pal. See you around.

What's my number? Are we pals? You never call ?

Not derailing the thread merely deriding The Daily Express as a source for projected house prices into 2018 but no matter. I understand this is your hobby. 

The ONS data shows prices falling in some areas, rising in others. At a glance it would seem that those London boroughs taking the hit currently seem to be the most expensive. It might be explained by high levels of foreign owners in those areas and/or the stamp duty changes which would be hard to ignore even for the very wealthy. 

[rantnrave]

What chance the Express stops property ramping now its changed hands?

[bear.getting.old]

2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

What chance the Express stops property ramping now its changed hands?

They said that the editing will be seperate as it is now, yet in the same story it was said that the papers will share resources and content! I'd guess we are looking at a left wing Express?

[bear.getting.old]

Back to the topic. Yes ALL of the UK fell after the previous 1989 and 2007 crashes, London led the crash. It rippled quickly to the south east. The north fell 6-12 months later. We are seeing already London falling and commuter towns starting to fall now. This could be the start of a crash, though I'm not sure if we have had a trigger for a full on crash. This could just be an small correction. By summer it could be boomtime again, however with factors such as rising rates, Section 24 and possible job losses in retail I would think that unlikely. Could it just bump along this year at 0% HPI until A, the next proper downturn or B. More upturn in the economy. But Wwat do I know? Everything I read from even the most gloomy of forecasters like Max Kiezer doesn't see a crash yet.

Edited February 14, 2018 by bear.getting.old

[Si1]

29 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Back to the topic. Yes ALL of the UK fell after the previous 1989 and 2007 crashes, London led the crash. It rippled quickly to the south east. The north fell 6-12 months later. We are seeing already London falling and commuter towns starting to fall now. This could be the start of a crash, though I'm not sure if we have had a trigger for a full on crash. This could just be an small correction. By summer it could be boomtime again, however with factors such as rising rates, Section 24 and possible job losses in retail I would think that unlikely. Could it just bump along this year at 0% HPI until A, the next proper downturn or B. More upturn in the economy. But Wwat do I know? Everything I read from even the most gloomy of forecasters like Max Kiezer doesn't see a crash yet.

History doesn't repeat exactly but it does rhyme. I see froth coming off London and bubbley aspirational pockets around the country, more gradual longer terms corrections rippling out elsewhere, absent a trigger. Timescale - covering a decade+

 

Or in other words a bear market.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Si1

[Fromage Frais]

I am seeing silly prices new builds go from 46X,000 > 43X,000 now even with all the help to buy etc.  NR12 wroxham

Even seeing a few "stamp duty paid" malarkey.

At the moment they are not as nice as used houses for the same money another 10-20% or so off and if might be interesting.

Feels so dangerous to buy now asking prices and selling prices must be a void ATM

[Guest]

It's so hard to monitor my local market... Very low volumes. Can the ons data be extracted into a s/s with postcodes, property type and rooms? If it can I'll have a play around.

I think sentiment can turn overnight (sheeple are more like starlings changing direction in a millisecond). I'm seeing the start of drops now in SE... 

Doesn't take many distressed sellers or estate sales with low asking prices to transform a market in days.

[bear.getting.old]

This is not just affecting FTB's, also trader uppers. I'm now at a point where I need to move so I could sell my slavebox now possibly at the market peak, rent, and not buy again until reset. The difference in value to trade up is a large amount compared to what it will be when house prices normalise. I've been here before, in 2003 when I STR. At the time it was looking quite insane. Look what HPI did then after the IR cuts. A very bad call. However rates today are only going one way - up.

Decisions....

[Bland Unsight]

5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

What chance the Express stops property ramping now its changed hands?

 

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

Or in other words a bear market.

 This is a bit too dark to tempt me into starting a new thread so I'll just post it here. In 2013 the owners of the Daily Express presented the details of their readership as follows:

Source

Express readers are old. Express readers are in fact boomers.

The UK baby boom has two peaks; 1947 and 1963

Source

Life expectancy has stretched a bit since the people at the front edge of the first peak were born in 1941.

Source

However, we are now at a stage where the boomers are reaching the shores of the "the undiscovered country from whose bourn no traveller returns", and obvs what Shakey can make fancy words about about I can graph.

Source

And there's more:

Quote

Over the full 25-year period from mid-2016 to mid-2041 the proportion of growth resulting from the balance of births and deaths is projected to be lower, at 39%. This is mainly because the number of deaths is projected to rise as large numbers of those born in the baby boom immediately after World War 2 die later in the period.

Source: ONS National Population Projections: 2016-based statistical bulletin, released 26 October 2017, emphasis added.

The demographic contribution to UK house prices changed direction in 2011.

I reckon that UK house prices are facing some major challenges which are not widely understood:

• The demographic tide running against prices
• A likely selling down by some buy-to-let investors as section 24 erodes profits (ticking up from now but likely to peak about four years from now unless collapsing house prices provokes an earlier fire sale)
• The 1997-2008 boom interest-only borrowers coming to term and having to sell-up (peaks about 2032 but volumes ticking up from now onward)

Edited February 14, 2018 by Beary McBearface

[Si1]

7 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

 

 This is a bit too dark to tempt me into starting a new thread so I'll just post it here. In 2013 the owners of the Daily Express presented the details of their readership as follows:

Source

Express readers are old. Express readers are in fact boomers.

The UK baby boom has two peaks; 1947 and 1963

Source

Life expectancy has stretched a bit since the people at the front edge of the first peak were born in 1941.

Source

However, we are now at a stage where the boomers are reaching the shores of the "the undiscovered country from whose bourn no traveller returns", and obvs what Shakey can make fancy words about about I can graph.

Source

And there's more:

Source: ONS National Population Projections: 2016-based statistical bulletin, released 26 October 2017, emphasis added.

The demographic contribution to UK house prices changed direction in 2011.

I reckon that UK house prices some major challenges which are not widely understood:

• The demographic tide running against prices
• A likely selling down by some buy-to-let investors as section 24 erodes profits (ticking up from now but likely to peak about four years from now unless collapsing house prices provokes an earlier fire sale)
• The 1997-2008 boom interest-only borrowers coming to term and having to sell-up (peaks about 2032 but volumes ticking up from now onward)

Yes, that's my view, I think it's a supercycle

[bear.getting.old]

2 hours ago, Si1 said:

History doesn't repeat exactly but it does rhyme. I see froth coming off London and bubbley aspirational pockets around the country, more gradual longer terms corrections rippling out elsewhere, absent a trigger. Timescale - covering a decade+

Or in other words a bear market.

Also possible. I remember back at the height of the banking crisis amongst the doom and gloom of the falls even EAs saying this is it. Prices will take decades to recover etc and they will not really ever go up.

"A report by a leading estate agent said the price of the average home peaked at £183,959 in 2007 but has fallen so dramatically it will not return to this level until 2019.

The 12-year recovery period could be the longest since records began in the 1950s.

The report said that once the impact of inflation is stripped out, average prices will not return to 2007 levels until 2031 – an incredible 24 years after they peaked."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255765/Bad-news-homeowners-house-prices-return-pre-recession-peak-end-decade.html

That was wrong eh!

What has happened here and in Ireland with values going up quickly just shows nobody has learnt a bloody thing. Perhaps a decade of zero is next but I hope not. I'd rather the reset quickly then no more than RPI values HPI.

Edited February 14, 2018 by bear.getting.old

[Kosmin]

2 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

But Wwat do I know? Everything I read from even the most gloomy of forecasters like Max Kiezer doesn't see a crash yet.

Sounds like you don't know that he isn't the most gloomy forecaster.

 

2 hours ago, Si1 said:

History doesn't repeat exactly but it does rhyme.

First as tragedy, then as farce.

[Si1]

32 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

 

I reckon that UK house prices some major challenges which are not widely understood:

• The demographic tide running against prices
• A likely selling down by some buy-to-let investors as section 24 erodes profits (ticking up from now but likely to peak about four years from now unless collapsing house prices provokes an earlier fire sale)
• The 1997-2008 boom interest-only borrowers coming to term and having to sell-up (peaks about 2032 but volumes ticking up from now onward)

On the link between demography, interest rates and house price booms

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf

 

[Bland Unsight]

18 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Yes, that's my view, I think it's a supercycle

Another things is that in the past part of the driver of growth in real house prices was growth in real earnings. The Resolution Foundation's Intergenerational Commission have published some interesting bits and pieces about how things are working out for Generation X and the Millennials who will need to pick up the pwoperdee mad pwoperdee buying baton from their illustrious predecessors. It's not going well.

Quote

Because in normal times earnings growth outstrips inflation, the expectation is that each generation will earn more than the one before at any given age. Figure 8 gives a similar picture to Figure 7 but zooms out to cover the entirety of careers, and aggregates across entire generations. It shows that generation-upon-generation earnings gains are exactly what happened over the course of the 20th century, with the silent generation earning more than the greatest generation in their 50s and early 60s; the baby boomers making particularly large gains on the silent generation from their 30s onwards; and generation X outperforming the boomers, at least until their late 30s when the pay squeeze hits their trajectory.

Source: Stagnation Generation, RF Intergenerational Commission Report, July 2016

[Bland Unsight]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

On the link between demography, interest rates and house price booms

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf

 

Interesting. From the article:

[Bland Unsight]

31 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Also possible. I remember back at the height of the banking crisis amongst the doom and gloom of the falls even EAs saying this is it. Prices will take decades to recover etc and they will not really ever go up. What has happened here and in Ireland with values going up quickly just shows nobody has learnt a bloody thing. Perhaps a decade of zero is next but I hope not. I'd rather the reset quickly then no more than RPI values HPI.

You were listening to an estate agent's long-term forecast on house prices? How bizarre.

Were you smoking crack at the time or just enjoying a peanut butter and crack sandwich?

[Trump Invective]

6 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

Interesting. From the article:

Is that graph saying what Im hoping its saying??

[bear.getting.old]

4 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

You were listening to an estate agent's long-term forecast on house prices? How bizarre.

Were you smoking crack at the time or just enjoying a peanut butter and crack sandwich?

Don't worry I know they talk 90 % ********. I'm just pointing out that what they said was so. Although its unusual for EAs to talk the market down. Great posts and graphs by the way.

Edited February 14, 2018 by bear.getting.old

[Si1]

6 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Is that graph saying what Im hoping its saying??

Put your celebration on ice until you read the horizontal axis values.

[PerfectCircle]

18 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

(Emphasis added)

I think the whole idea of proving that London prices are going up or down is idiotic. There's the data, there's legitimate interpretation of the data and then there's the truth of things. The truth of things is not ours to know so it's best to let the data do the talking. What I was trying to do is challenge your "I've looked at the London data and it's all going up" post higher up the thread (link).

The latest Land Registry data suggests that London HPI continues to fall. It's also just a plain fact that in 9 of the 33 boroughs the LR data have London prices as flat or falling year on year (in nominal) which doesn't tally neatly with your assertion that "almost every authority, including central ones, are up YoY". There's room for debate about how many boroughs need to be falling before the qualifier "almost every" moves from exaggeration to falsehood but you're definitely in exaggeration territory. If an experimental treatment is given to 100 patients and 27 of them die anyway then people might look sceptically on the claim that it "almost" saved them all.

As others have pointed out already, the Land Registry is the laggiest data set but nevertheless the trend in the Land Registry London data is consistent with the LSL Acadata series which is claiming that as of right now London is down 4.1% YoY.

Separately, the posts on this thread show that as per the latest Land Registry data (being October 2017) volumes are steady compared to a year ago so if you have any evidence for your assertion that transaction volumes are "collapsing" you better present it (I won't hold my breath).

 

I am not denying a downward trend as most YoY data for London have shown a continuous price weakening. Volumes have gone from 12 000 in July 2015 to just over 6000. For the rest, you just introduce some technicalities such as wage inflation as if one would look at wage growth to justify spending more on a house, or picking up vastly illiquid authority such as Westminster and City (50 and 20 transactions a year) or  K&C which do not reflective the larger London market (other falls are pretty insignificant). All borrows are closely correlated at least within the same region, yet we see some strong gains near flat prices. Housing maket is illiquid by nature, only 3% of the housing stock is exchanged every year, probably even less in London for couple of years. It is mostly bought by non-professional money (household) hence irrational and driven mostly by sentiment. The sentiment is that sellers refuse to take price cut and buyers can't stretch any further, I have read some estimates showing that almost 50% of property fail to sell and are withdrawn from the market.  Bank have been very accommodating this business cycle 2008-today compare to the 90's crash, this explained largely why we didn't and still don't see big price falls despite strong headwinds.  

[Trump Invective]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Put your celebration on ice until you read the horizontal axis values.

OK so I will be dead or dying before house prices are reasonable. Kind of sours the taste.

[Bland Unsight]

59 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Also possible. I remember back at the height of the banking crisis amongst the doom and gloom of the falls even EAs saying this is it. Prices will take decades to recover etc and they will not really ever go up.

"A report by a leading estate agent said the price of the average home peaked at £183,959 in 2007 but has fallen so dramatically it will not return to this level until 2019.

The 12-year recovery period could be the longest since records began in the 1950s.

The report said that once the impact of inflation is stripped out, average prices will not return to 2007 levels until 2031 – an incredible 24 years after they peaked."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255765/Bad-news-homeowners-house-prices-return-pre-recession-peak-end-decade.html

That was wrong eh!

What has happened here and in Ireland with values going up quickly just shows nobody has learnt a bloody thing. Perhaps a decade of zero is next but I hope not. I'd rather the reset quickly then no more than RPI values HPI.

(Emphasis added)

Except of course it is actually correct thus far.

Source: Nationwide (Excel file)

Please do ask if you'd like an explanation of the what the phrase "once the impact of inflation is stripped out" means.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Beary McBearface

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, Beary McBearface said:

Another things is that in the past part of the driver of growth in real house prices was growth in real earnings. The Resolution Foundation's Intergenerational Commission have published some interesting bits and pieces about how things are working out for Generation X and the Millennials who will need to pick up the pwoperdee mad pwoperdee buying baton from their illustrious predecessors. It's not going well.

Source: Stagnation Generation, RF Intergenerational Commission Report, July 2016

Wow, half a century of technological growth during peacetime = zero increase in real wages. Impressive achievement by policymakers.

[Toast]

3 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

Please do ask if you'd like an explanation of the what the phrase "once the impact of inflation is stripped out" means.

No thank you, but it sure as hell feels otherwise compared to my wage inflation. I think I should look for a better job.

The DM article was presumably referring to national averages, but I would be interested to see that chart for the South East specifically.

[Kosmin]

6 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

What has happened here and in Ireland with values going up quickly just shows nobody has learnt a bloody thing.

It only shows that not everyone has learned, which isn't particularly surprising.