Rightmove October Report

[thecrashingisles]

The Rightmove October report is out next Monday and is based on figures from yesterday. Will it confirm the drop in the market picked up last month? Will we get another leak before the weekend?

[ianbeale]

The Rightmove October report is out next Monday and is based on figures from yesterday. Will it confirm the drop in the market picked up last month? Will we get another leak before the weekend?

difficult to say a lot of HIPS noise in the figs to darw any conclusion - though i suspect they will be slightly red neg 0.5ish

[Selling up]

Better damn well show some red. This "it's all over bar any actual data" thing is getting on my nerves.

[Fairies Wear Boots]

Better damn well show some red. This "it's all over bar any actual data" thing is getting on my nerves.

Here here. Crash market crash.

However, don't we need a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers, and then lots more sellers joining the party , or being forced too before they fall substantially? Or do you reckon quite a few people will realise they don't want to chase the market down and set a 'will sell ' price?

[Kurt Barlow]

Here here. Crash market crash.

However, don't we need a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers, and then lots more sellers joining the party , or being forced too before they fall substantially? Or do you reckon quite a few people will realise they don't want to chase the market down and set a 'will sell ' price?

You wont see any major decrease month on month. Prices will gradually drift lower - I suspect anywhere upto 0.5% a month. Its not like a stock market crash. The last property crash was played out over 7 years! Also remember no growth is falling prices because they are not keeping up with inflation.

[Selling up]

However, don't we need a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers, and then lots more sellers joining the party , or being forced too before they fall substantially?

You speak the truth. [edit: just seen Kurt's post. So do you, Kurt!]

I'm just getting fed up waiting - so many things are in place for a bloodbath (credit crunch, amateur BTLers holding up the market, lie-to-buy revelations, media sentiment shift) but it's all... so... slow....

Edited October 9, 2007 by Selling up

[starsign]

thanks for the heads up, that gives us a few days to come up with some really strong arguments to use just in case the data shows prices growing. Obviously if prices are down then we can just celebrate.

here's my list:

we are being withheld the truth (this is a personal favourite)

VI spin

it is based on "for sale" prices not actual sold prices

the data is not robust because of HIPs

[LivingWithTheInlaws]

From what I've seen in my area in the last month, there has to be an overall drop in asking prices. I've got 20-odd properties on my saved list. Around 5 of them have dropped their asking price in the last month by an average of about 15k.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

-10% MoM.

Or I'll eat your wife*

*terms and conditions apply

[Extradry Martini]

It is interesting that in Spain, where pretty much everyone knows that prices are in freefall, what indices there are are still showing price rises.

[madasafrog]

thanks for the heads up, that gives us a few days to come up with some really strong arguments to use just in case the data shows prices growing. Obviously if prices are down then we can just celebrate.

here's my list:

we are being withheld the truth (this is a personal favourite)

VI spin

it is based on "for sale" prices not actual sold prices

the data is not robust because of HIPs

All of these reports are just a very broad yardstick and not an accurate measure of house prices.

I will stick to the land registry figures thanks

[DoctorJ]

the RM stats still have some effect on sentiment. Thats why it will be fudged

[crashmonitor]

Volumes are so thin it is reasonable to suppose that only the best in each category is selling,this should help mask the falls.

I had expected the HIPS factor to be helpful to the Bulls,indeed new instructions are down 37% on the same period last year as HIPs act as a deterrent to the casual vendor.But low supply (according to EAs) is crashing the market.Seems I totally misread that one,if exising home owners don't play swaperama at fantasy prices then there is only hard cash left either borrowed by FTBs,BTLs or reintroduced by STRers.

Edited October 10, 2007 by crashmonitor

[Benedict]

difficult to say a lot of HIPS noise in the figs to darw any conclusion - though i suspect they will be slightly red neg 0.5ish

Just on HIPs alone I'd imagine they'll be worse than that. 3 beds all needed HIPs from September 12th so pretty well exactly the period the rightmove stats are covering, they've knocked out 40% of 4 bed+ places, now they're going to knock out 40% of 3 bed places so the index is going to be heavily skewed towards the 1 and 2 bed places.

I think it'll have at least the impact of the 4 bed change, 3 beds don't have the ridiculously top of the range properties but anyone who's tried to upgrade from a 2 to a 3 bed property will know that it's quite a big step, and they make up a bigger proportion of the market than the 4 bed plus properties in some areas.

In the event of no real change in prices at all (NOT saying that's what will happen, just using that as an assumption to guess the HIPs effect) I'd say 2% drop overall for rightmove and 3% for London because 3 bed homes make up more of the top of the range properties there because most houses are smaller.

[Guest tbatst2000]

-10% MoM.

Or I'll eat your wife*

*terms and conditions apply

Will that be with some fava beans and a big Barolo?

[Benedict]

I've recently noticed an increase in 4 and 5 bed houses appearing on Rightmove in my area (many of them £400K+). This has had the effect of pushing up my simple average by about 4 percent this month.

I suspect that there was a pent up backlog of larger houses that held off listing when the 4 bed HIP rule came in. Now that it's obvious that HIPs aren't going away they've finally decided to list.

In my opinion, HIPs is definitely having an impact on Rightmove's data, but it's not particularly clear in what way - therefore it's quite easy to form theories to explain both higher and lower prices.

Personally I'm only interested in what houses sell for, not what they list for.

Doesn't it take a bit of time to arrange a HIPs? Even if one knows what one's doing it probably involves booking someone, taking a day off work, waiting for them to write up their findings and generally messing around before listing. Plus with most people being confused about the whole situation it probably took a couple of weeks to even get as far as booking someone, even without people holding out particularly just from the sudden introduction of that level of delay the stats would be messed up.

I have to say I'm astonished that Rightmove hasn't made a simple mix adjustment to present some "as if" figures to people. It'd be so, so easy to do with access to the data but still they haven't, which basically means several months where their figures are absolutely meaningless.

I agree that sold prices are the key, but it's very interesting seeing how asking prices relate to sold prices, a good indicator of confidence in the market I think. Looking at charts of indices put together rightmove always seems to diverge around the peak easter buying season as people get a bit carried away and then come back to the other indices later.

[Bloo Loo]

cant remember ever seeing falls month on month in the last crash.

Didnt see any green shoots either for years.

Saw lots of properties at the Black Horse though.

[crown]

can't decide thismonth on a -5% type figure or a flat 0% figure

hope it's leaked again though

[CviewUK]

I will stick to the land registry figures thanks

Treat the LR figures with caution as they do not include cashback, etc deals, and their can be long delays before the solicitors get their acts together and send off the paperwork after completion.

I sold an expensive detached house that is listed at the LR as a semi and this has distorted the average semi prices for the area.

Edited October 10, 2007 by CviewUK

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I will stick to the land registry figures thanks

Treat the LR figures with caution as they do not include cashback, etc deals, and their can be long delays before the solicitors get their acts together and send off the paperwork after completion.

I sold an expensive detached house that is listed at the LR as a semi and this has distorted the average semi prices for the area.

I agree, especially those cash back deals & developer treats.

it will all come out in the wash.

[jdc]

I think Rightmove up this month, though not by much. 0.4% maybe. Last month was too big to tally, there's some noise in there. Would love to be wrong, of course.

[thecrashingisles]

Does anyone have a hint about this yet??

[Guest The_Oldie]

Up perhaps?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=797495

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=797567

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=808288

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=805394

[Pent Vaer]

Doesn't it take a bit of time to arrange a HIPs? Even if one knows what one's doing it probably involves booking someone, taking a day off work, waiting for them to write up their findings and generally messing around before listing. Plus with most people being confused about the whole situation it probably took a couple of weeks to even get as far as booking someone, even without people holding out particularly just from the sudden introduction of that level of delay the stats would be messed up.

We put our house up just after the HIPs date for 4-bedders. It was not a particularly noticeable time delay.

Agent put the house on rightmove straight away, the HIPs inspection was done before the ad went in the local paper the next week.

Inspection took about 45 mins, cost 350 quid, done by a recently career-shifted sailor

I suspect that there was a pent up backlog of larger houses that held off listing when the 4 bed HIP rule came in. Now that it's obvious that HIPs aren't going away they've finally decided to list.

Find it hard to believe that many owners of houses getting on for 1/2 million are going to wait for months in making a major life change in order to save 350 quid.

Pent