2009: Are We All Doooomed?

[Michael O'Flynn]

The pundits are all making like msytic meg at the moment ... but what do you think will happen next year (ok, I know, the site's name is a bit ofa hint!) Will prices keep falling? And how long for? Will rate cuts boost transaction levels? If you have a minute please nip over to

http://www.findaproperty.com/ and vote in our survey

It's also here: http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/housing-market-2009/

cheers

Michael

[NoFlatsPlease]

The pundits are all making like msytic meg at the moment ... but what do you think will happen next year (ok, I know, the site's name is a bit ofa hint!) Will prices keep falling? And how long for? Will rate cuts boost transaction levels? If you have a minute please nip over to

http://www.findaproperty.com/ and vote in our survey

It's also here: http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/housing-market-2009/

cheers

Michael

Why doesn't Property Bee work with findaproperty.com? I think you should fix that or Rightmove will take all your surfers!

As to your question, I am guessing a 30% fall but I am one of the more optimistic surfer here

[sossij]

The pundits are all making like msytic meg at the moment ... but what do you think will happen next year (ok, I know, the site's name is a bit ofa hint!) Will prices keep falling? And how long for? Will rate cuts boost transaction levels? If you have a minute please nip over to

http://www.findaproperty.com/ and vote in our survey

It's also here: http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/housing-market-2009/

cheers

Michael

Done. Will you come back and tell us the results?

[Wait & See]

By the end of 2009 I predict a fall of at least 60% in property prices and unemployment at over 4 million.

[Bloo Loo]

By the end of 2009 I predict a fall of at least 60% in property prices and unemployment at over 4 million.

40% from peak and 4 million, taxes UP. interest rates 1% . Bankruptcy soars or abolished.

[deflation]

If IR cuts are passed on, and if (a big IF) there are tax cuts and a run for the polls, a possible and short-lived rally might happen.

Buul Trap? Dead cat bounce?

[Miserable Barsteward]

Will prices keep falling next year?...God yes....and the year after that and the year after that....In fact I think the average life expectancy for a man in the UK is 77 In that sense we are all doooooomed.....So you might like to plan accordingly...How long have you got left?

[bobthe~]

40% from peak and 4 million, taxes UP. interest rates 1% . Bankruptcy soars or abolished.

Bankruptcy abolished and the government to announce a prison building program to hold anyone found saving money.

Edit to add the word prison, otherwise it makes even less sense.

Edited November 18, 2008 by bobthe~

[SeniorBear]

I expect that people will put Christmas spending on their credit cards, and hope that 'something will turn up' in 2009. What will turn up is more job losses, followed by a massive hike in house repossessions, and a concomitant decrease in property prices. By the summer of 2009 we will have a lot of people in great distress. It will be horrible. However, houses will become affordable again (3.5 times salary) by the end of 2009.

[bobthe~]

I expect that people will put Christmas spending on their credit cards, and hope that 'something will turn up' in 2009. What will turn up is more job losses, followed by a massive hike in house repossessions, and a concomitant decrease in property prices. By the summer of 2009 we will have a lot of people in great distress. It will be horrible. However, houses will become affordable again (3.5 times salary) by the end of 2009.

The government won't let it happen.

[symo]

I expect that people will put Christmas spending on their credit cards, and hope that 'something will turn up' in 2009. What will turn up is more job losses, followed by a massive hike in house repossessions, and a concomitant decrease in property prices. By the summer of 2009 we will have a lot of people in great distress. It will be horrible. However, houses will become affordable again (3.5 times salary) by the end of 2009.

+1

[Tonkers]

40% from peak and 4 million, taxes UP. interest rates 1% . Bankruptcy soars or abolished.

I have been wondering about possible changes to bankruptcy laws as so many will take that option. Can they seize assets already?

[Tonkers]

I expect that people will put Christmas spending on their credit cards, and hope that 'something will turn up' in 2009. What will turn up is more job losses, followed by a massive hike in house repossessions, and a concomitant decrease in property prices. By the summer of 2009 we will have a lot of people in great distress. It will be horrible. However, houses will become affordable again (3.5 times salary) by the end of 2009.

Whacking Cristmas on your credit card could easily rank as profligate spending under current bankruptcy laws and so you may well be given a BRO which will have you as a bankrupt for 2 - 15 years with all the attendant hassle.

[eightiesgirly]

It's not just job losses that cause problems, my daughter has today been put on a 4 day week (35 hours a month reduction) for the foreseeable future and there is talk of reducing it to 3. These shifty moves don't show up in unemployment figures.

I'm well miffed 'cause she is moving back home, can't afford her rent. Her landlord's non too chuffed either.

[SeniorBear]

One of my offspring has come back to live with me, since her current research contract is not being renewed. A sign of the times. However, she is a wonderful cook. so I don't mind.

[Fromage Frais]

I always get disturbed by legislation trying to tie people to debts, if you think about it one of the cornerstones of modern commerce is the "limited liability" company. Ie the ability to start an entity which has iabilities limited to its share capital.

I know that banks are limited in such a way so thus it is better to have them take the hit than the public. Also if we are going to deleverage then lets go for it and get it over with. When your a saver with over a million or a shaleholder you should be smart enough to do your homework and not invest/save with a reckless company its a given.

If things are going to be so bad maybe a opposite way of thinking would be better ie shorter bankrupcy periods, changing loans to non recorse (to prevent banks from doing the same thing again in the future obviously with no fanny or freddy mac to complicate things).

• Backrupcy by tribuneral and times reduced not increased
  
• mortgages to become non recorse
  
• 25% deposit manditory on domestic home loans
  
• empty property tax of 50% of rental value
  
• speculation tax of 90% of campital gain if property sold within 5 years reducing 10% each year thereafter (inprovements with reciepts can be included) new homes excluded.
  
• banks able to package losses and trade them to profitable companies (like carbon trading), insentivising writing down residential properties values.
  
• Income from savings within FSA limit to be free of tax (to encourage saving) maybe even make saving manditory like in singapore eg 20% of salary.
  

Personally I would like anything from the above or anything else if it just made the pain harder and quicker there is a level in the market and a point at which people will start buying again and that is the point where even a moron can see that renting is more expensive than buying and the bank can see that the punter will have a better financial positon doing so also.

I read a post in another thread that summed things up for me £100 food, £100 bills, £500 rent I think as a society we need to do somthing to stop the excess productive funds/efficiency being soaked up by rising rents and property prices as they are quick to go up (everyone happy) and as we can see now slow to go down (everyone sad).

Edited November 18, 2008 by Fromage Frais

[eightiesgirly]

One of my offspring has come back to live with me, since her current research contract is not being renewed. A sign of the times. However, she is a wonderful cook. so I don't mind.

That's quite nice, my little darling is a first class mess maker.

[Bloo Loo]

I have been wondering about possible changes to bankruptcy laws as so many will take that option. Can they seize assets already?

you have no assets as a bankrupt until the OR discharges you

[Caribbean Beauty]

It's not just job losses that cause problems, my daughter has today been put on a 4 day week (35 hours a month reduction) for the foreseeable future and there is talk of reducing it to 3. These shifty moves don't show up in unemployment figures.

I'm well miffed 'cause she is moving back home, can't afford her rent. Her landlord's non too chuffed either.

I'm sorry to hear about your daughter's work reduction - can you share the type of field which she worked in for info for us? Or you could name the company if it's a national chain.

The other thing employers do to destroy jobs is simply not replace the retirees, emigres and people who get fired or resign for normal reasons - natural wastage. In boom times these posts are advertised again, so they still count as a job lost, but a little more humanely.

[eightiesgirly]

I'm sorry to hear about your daughter's work reduction - can you share the type of field which she worked in for info for us? Or you could name the company if it's a national chain.

The other thing employers do to destroy jobs is simply not replace the retirees, emigres and people who get fired or resign for normal reasons - natural wastage. In boom times these posts are advertised again, so they still count as a job lost, but a little more humanely.

Restaurant. To be honest looking at the prices they charge it's no surprise. Ok while everyone has loads of disposable income, but now that's been crunched I guess they don't feel the need to pay over a fiver for a sandwich.

[Leonard Hatred]

If the housing market gets a lucky break, it will only be carnage. Otherwise, devastation

[Crashman Begins]

House price crashers getting ready / planning to buy 2010

Ohhh the excitment

[porca misèria]

I always get disturbed by legislation trying to tie people to debts, if you think about it one of the cornerstones of modern commerce is the "limited liability" company. Ie the ability to start an entity which has iabilities limited to its share capital.

Try setting up a limited company to do something that requires investment, like setting up a facility or employing staff. And try raising money to meet those costs until your business plan says you'll have the income to meet them.

A venture capitalist might invest in you, and will then own a lot of the equity in the business. But if you want to keep hold of the equity, you'll have to borrow. That's when you find out where limited liability ends: your house will routinely be collateral, and if you don't have a house, then neither do you have a business loan.

[Fromage Frais]

Try setting up a limited company to do something that requires investment, like setting up a facility or employing staff. And try raising money to meet those costs until your business plan says you'll have the income to meet them.

A venture capitalist might invest in you, and will then own a lot of the equity in the business. But if you want to keep hold of the equity, you'll have to borrow. That's when you find out where limited liability ends: your house will routinely be collateral, and if you don't have a house, then neither do you have a business loan.

I understand as I am a company director this but I was speaking generally the trend, especially the equivalent of the government signing the personal garuntees and then implimenting laws to put on the hook later.

You do not see directors of banks being sued for these losses?