Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Michael O'Flynn

New Members
  • Content Count

    11
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Michael O'Flynn

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie
  1. It's an interesting question/observation - there's actually a degree of disbelief around at the moment about the current rally in the market. Why are prices stabilizing - or actually rising? There are a few points I'd make about this question: 1. At the moment there aren't a lot of forced sellers - repossessions have risen, for sure, but not massively. There's been no fire sale in the BTL market because low interest rates and strong rental demand are supporting a lot of landlords. 2. Stock levels are low at the moment - down 20% year-on-year according to our new House Prices & Affordability Index. http://www.findaproperty.com/media/house-prices/FindaProperty_HPA_Index_Sep09.pdf' rel="external nofollow"> 3. Low supply levels have supported prices. But while prices are rising at present there are significant divergences in the market - strongest at the top end and for larger properties; but still falling at the lower end (our index segments the market into first-time buyers and movers). 4. The reason for this is fairly straightforward - it's all about who can move at present, and that's a limited number of people with equity (older homeowners), cash (professional investors, the wealthy), first-timers with large deposits, and overseas buyers attracting by weak pound. These buyers are predominantly at the middle to upper ends of market and are chasing limited stock (with 1m people in negative equity the possibility of selling/moving is constrained). For the crash scenario you desire you would need some of the following to happen: Increased unemployment leading to more forced sales and stock increases Higher interest rates putting pressure on owners A tougher Gov/banking policy that pushed more struggling owners into repossession and sell-off A continuation, or exacerbation of current tight lending situation Further troubles in the financial markets Whether these things will happen remains to be seen ā€“ but do you really want to see more unemployment, and more repossessions? My own view is the current revival in prices is relatively shallow and will probably ease off ā€“ thereafter we will see prices bumping along the bottom over the coming year. Iā€™d be interested to hear views on this! Cheers Michael O'Flynn FindaProperty.com
  2. The pundits are all making like msytic meg at the moment ... but what do you think will happen next year (ok, I know, the site's name is a bit ofa hint!) Will prices keep falling? And how long for? Will rate cuts boost transaction levels? If you have a minute please nip over to http://www.findaproperty.com/ and vote in our survey It's also here: http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/housing-market-2009/ cheers Michael
  3. Pretty surprising - don't think many anticipated such a large cut. We ran a poll recently and found that many didn't want a cut, they wanted further house price falls - we get a lot of FTBs on our site, whihc may epxlain that result! I wonder how you view this cut ... do you think it will put a floor under house price falls and boost transaction levels... or will it make no difference? Please vote here: http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/quic...erest-rate-cut/
  4. Morning all. Looks like we'll see a half point or even a full one per cent rate cut this week. But with lenders still tightfisted I do wonder whether it will make any difference? If they don't pass it on should the gov lean on them? Or should the market be left to find a natural level? We're running a poll about this over on http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/quic...-good-bad-news/ I'd really appreciate it if you could drop by and vote ... and if you have time, please leave a comment too. cheers Michael Property Blog: http://blog.findaproperty.com/
  5. Thanks for all your replies. It will be interesting to see how Brighton fares. I agree that the town's rebranding makes it less likely to return to its skid row days and I'm pretty sure that there's very little space left to build on - with the sea on one side and the Downs on the other the options are limited. So while I think prices have a way to go yet, I also think Brighton will be one of those places that holds up better than most. cheers Michael http://blog.findaproperty.com/
  6. Guys, I think I may be able to explain. I work for <A HREF="http://www.findaproperty.com</A>. Basically, property numbers went up dramatically over the past year on FaP because we did a deal with Northcliffe newspapers, a regional chain, to help us expand nationally. This was very successful and it meant a very significant boost to our property numbers. If portal performance is of interest check out Bob North's column on estate ageny news http://www.estateagencynews.co.uk/north_articles/north.asp or the recently launched http://www.propertyportalwatch.com/ On a different subject ...these blog enteries may be of interest since they were inspired by, or inspired housepricecrash comment: <A HREF="http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/spivvy/">Spivvy</A> <A HREF="http://blog.findaproperty.com/general/phil-spencer-under-police-protection/">Phil Spencer Under Police Protection</A>
  7. Mods,

    Just to confirm I have confirmed by emailing findaproperty that this is indeed the editor and welcomed him to the site!

    Nice to have him around!

  8. I think the report shows that we may well be close to the bottom of the market - I still think we're about half way through the process of house price falls but with the government bailout and falling interest rates I do think the pace of the downturn will ease in the months ahead. I expect transaction levels to start edging up and a degree fo confidence to return ... it will be a slow process, but a more normal financing situation will bring buyers back. And before you all start wondering about vested interests, I should point out that I'm the editor of FindaProperty.com ... so yes, I'm probably a bit biased biased (incidentally, if you want to read a more off-beat take on the housing market check out our blog ... http://blog.findaproperty.com/ cheers Michael O'Flynn
  9. Hi guys Not sure if you've heard about this, but Cluttons estate agency has launched a new set of rules for buyers in a bid to stop gazundering ... as people who have fairly strong views about the market, I'd be interested to hear what you think ... there's a lively thread about it developing over on FindaProperty.com. Feel free to come and have your say http://www.findaproperty.com/displaystory....p;storyid=22625 cheers Michael O'Flynn
  10. I live in Brighton and the market seems to be quite variable. I was looking to buy a flat here last autumn but the deal fell through. Asking prices in the area I was looking in (Preston park, a pouplar and well-established suburb) are now down around 8% and props, while slow, seem to be selling. Elsewhere they seem to have fallen more sharply (for example, off the Lewes Road) - 10-15 per cent. Brighton is one of those places everyone ... espeically Londoners - seem to want to live in so the market is pretty resilient. At the moment I'm wondering whether yesterday's bail out will boost the market ... I'll be watching it closely because having waited a long time for prices to come down, I don't want to end up chasing a rising market again. I suspect a lot of people feel the same (posted a poll about this over on our blog: http://blog.findaproperty.com/buying-selli...e-start-buying/ feel free to drop by, vote, and leave a comment). cheers Mike
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.