The Times - Is The Bottom Here Now?

[W12]

Ms Ashworth seems to be away on holiday (reports of a continent-wide shortage of Bombay Sapphire have yet to be substantiated), but her fill-in Judith Heywood is certainly doing her very best. This week, she asks a bunch of estate agents and lenders if now is a good time to buy. Can you guess what they say?

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4434860.ece

The interim report from Sir James Crosby this week maintained that there is no magic remedy for the ills of the mortgage market. With three more years of credit crunch predicted by the former head of HBOS, homebuyers could be forgiven for retreating deep into their garden with a jug of Pimm's and a cold compress.

But some experts maintain - even in this bleak sort of week- that, if you want to make a clever call on the bottom of the market, you had best pay attention not in 2010, 2011 or even 2017 (the various years in which house price recovery has been tipped) but now. Liam Bailey, Knight Frank's head of research, suggested this week that, just as cash-strapped homeowners are most inclined to avert their eyes, the biggest bargains may be emerging.

To overcome buyers' inertia, some agents report that determined sellers are setting prices 25 per cent below the peak - in one swoop offering a discount equal to the most extreme predicted house-price falls. The result? Cashed-up investors are massing, Bailey says, “desperate not to be the last to see the bottom of the market”.

Don't be misled: little sign of them buying has yet emerged, even in auction rooms. But Paul Tabor, of the property finders Garrington, agrees that cash-rich predators are “rubbing their hands with glee”. He expects the juiciest bargains to emerge within six months, while Bailey tips autumn next year as the turning point.

The savviest buyers will, as ever, be watching to see what the professionals are doing. But in this loans drought will any be able to snap up any bargains? The mortgage expert Ray Boulger, of Charcol, is unexpectedly upbeat: the past month has been “encouraging”, with swap rates peaking and the cost of some deals easing.

Boulger even suggests that interest rates may be cut in quick succession next year to as little as 4 per cent. There is little hope of the now-stricter criteria for loans being eased, but in a year's time buyers armed with higher wages and bigger savings could be well-placed to buy the more affordable homes. He says: “The challenge for buyers - who will, in the main, hold off until it's too late - is to get in while it's a buyers' market.”

OK, she does qualify things a bit, but still.... You'd almost think that the Bricks and Mortar section of The Times was merely a vehicle for advertising by developers and estate agents.

[red]

Oh, Christ - it get on my t1ts when people talk about the bottom of the market already...a 12 year boom is going to bottom out in a year and then start up again? Do me a lemon...

[ruisort7]

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4434860.ece

There is little hope of the now-stricter criteria for loans being eased, but in a year's time buyers armed with higher wages and bigger savings could be well-placed to buy the more affordable homes.

Is The Times now advocating that workers shrug off those calls for wage restraint to keep interest rates from rising?

[Cogs]

Notice the emotional tenor of these articles. "Canny buyers" and "savvy predators" are "rubbing their hands with glee" etc etc.

Could they be any more blatant? Quick everyone, panic, we may never get another chance.

As to what "the professionals are doing", it was my understanding they were out property ages ago.

An aside really, a mechanism for the bull trap: it isn't a short-term rebound of sentiment that is the culprit, it is the over-specialised investor mentality. What I get from these articles is the sense that some people are, at least in their heads, one trick ponies. If you are property investor, when the market turns like this you should be a something-else investor (wheat? oil? certain stocks? maybe even just shove it in a bank account and go on holiday), but it just doesn't work like that. They are still desperately trying to find an opportunity and a reason to buy houses. The means have become confused with the end. Its a form of cargo-cultism [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult], keep going through the same actions that you thought "worked" before (e.g., anyone on Property Ladder who attributed their success to their eye for interior design) regardless of the fact the reasons it really worked have ceased to apply. I blame the decline of cricket in schools, learning that there are some deliveries you should just refuse to raise your bat to is a good lesson for life.

Edited August 1, 2008 by Cogs

[Furby]

I blame the decline of cricket in schools, learning that there are some deliveries you should just refuse to raise your bat to is a good lesson for life.

That some of the england cricket team would do well to learn....

F

[Paddles]

Ms Ashworth seems to be away on holiday (reports of a continent-wide shortage of Bombay Sapphire have yet to be substantiated), but her fill-in Judith Heywood is certainly doing her very best. This week, she asks a bunch of estate agents and lenders if now is a good time to buy. Can you guess what they say?

To be fair, any run on stocks of Bombay Saphire can't be attributed to La Ashworth this year; she's taken such a bath on her BTL portfolio this year that she's sticking to the Netto value label stuff now.

[Patfig]

Ms Ashworth seems to be away on holiday (reports of a continent-wide shortage of Bombay Sapphire have yet to be substantiated), but her fill-in Judith Heywood is certainly doing her very best. This week, she asks a bunch of estate agents and lenders if now is a good time to buy. Can you guess what they say?

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4434860.ece

The interim report from Sir James Crosby this week maintained that there is no magic remedy for the ills of the mortgage market. With three more years of credit crunch predicted by the former head of HBOS, homebuyers could be forgiven for retreating deep into their garden with a jug of Pimm's and a cold compress.

But some experts maintain - even in this bleak sort of week- that, if you want to make a clever call on the bottom of the market, you had best pay attention not in 2010, 2011 or even 2017 (the various years in which house price recovery has been tipped) but now. Liam Bailey, Knight Frank's head of research, suggested this week that, just as cash-strapped homeowners are most inclined to avert their eyes, the biggest bargains may be emerging.

To overcome buyers' inertia, some agents report that determined sellers are setting prices 25 per cent below the peak - in one swoop offering a discount equal to the most extreme predicted house-price falls. The result? Cashed-up investors are massing, Bailey says, “desperate not to be the last to see the bottom of the market”.

Don't be misled: little sign of them buying has yet emerged, even in auction rooms. But Paul Tabor, of the property finders Garrington, agrees that cash-rich predators are “rubbing their hands with glee”. He expects the juiciest bargains to emerge within six months, while Bailey tips autumn next year as the turning point.

The savviest buyers will, as ever, be watching to see what the professionals are doing. But in this loans drought will any be able to snap up any bargains? The mortgage expert Ray Boulger, of Charcol, is unexpectedly upbeat: the past month has been “encouraging”, with swap rates peaking and the cost of some deals easing.

Boulger even suggests that interest rates may be cut in quick succession next year to as little as 4 per cent. There is little hope of the now-stricter criteria for loans being eased, but in a year's time buyers armed with higher wages and bigger savings could be well-placed to buy the more affordable homes. He says: “The challenge for buyers - who will, in the main, hold off until it's too late - is to get in while it's a buyers' market.”

OK, she does qualify things a bit, but still.... You'd almost think that the Bricks and Mortar section of The Times was merely a vehicle for advertising by developers and estate agents.

Into a bottomless pit she goes

[Guest AuntJess]

Oh, Christ - it get on my t1ts when people talk about the bottom of the market already...a 12 year boom is going to bottom out in a year and then start up again? Do me a lemon...

Yeah, it gets on mine, an'all. I did not notice all this frantic journalism in the nineties, when we had the last boom and bust. The papers were NOT full of house prices rises,falls etc.

These promoters have been hoist by their own petard: they who sought to make housing a key headline issue for years, talking the market up and gloating over their portfolios. They are just going to have to take their medicine now, as headlines - in a topic THEY thrust into the limelight - discuss in minute detail the fall of the housing-market-as-investment era.

[Paddles]

I wonder whether this week might not have been another significant milestone for this type of "journalism"; we had the Crosby report which basically said "anything we do will make a very bad situation even worse" followed by Ms. Earley having to tell us that we were only 1% away from her recent prediction for where we'd be by the end of the year.

The editors of the newspapers with these pull out Bricks and Mortar type properdee sections must surely be wondering whether the column inches might not be better filled with articles on the arts or sport or adverts for Cash Converters?

How many staff does the Bricks and Mortar team consist of? 5 writers? Maybe another 10 support staff? That's probably half a million in annual salary costs being spent producing articles about a subject most readers are going to feel sick to the stomach reading about from now on.

[W12]

How many staff does the Bricks and Mortar team consist of? 5 writers? Maybe another 10 support staff? That's probably half a million in annual salary costs being spent producing articles about a subject most readers are going to feel sick to the stomach reading about from now on.

Plus the printing costs, of course. But I reckon it's still pretty lucrative for them, albeit not on the same scale as the last few years. Once it becomes unprofitable for a few months, we'll see it pulled.

[Bloo Loo]

The only bottom we are likely to see is that of Krusty walking out of the studio revolving doors as she leaves for her next job as housing advisor to the Conservative Party.

Thatll make them as full of talent as the current incumbents

[LondonToManchester]

Oh, Christ - it get on my t1ts when people talk about the bottom of the market already...a 12 year boom is going to bottom out in a year and then start up again? Do me a lemon...

Generally markets fall ALOT faster than they rise.

Don't get me wrong though I still don't think we have hit bottom just yet..

[Leonard Hatred]

Only a couple of months ago they were barking at people to keep buying. Those that did have now wasted their money. Christ, will this lot never give up? I guess only when the lynch mobs come for them.

[Ash4781]

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4434860.ece

"One cheering thought for those of us with a tendency towards sloth: the market slowdown has restacked the sums when it comes to home improvements. "

property sloths

Edited August 1, 2008 by Ash4781

[blankster]

Some of us HPCers were spinning gloom and doom long before the market collapsed so it's not really surprising if property bulls are doing the same thing the other way round now!

[bobthe~]

To overcome buyers' inertia, some agents report that determined sellers are setting prices 25 per cent below the peak - in one swoop offering a discount equal to the most extreme predicted house-price falls. The result? Cashed-up investors are massing, Bailey says, “desperate not to be the last to see the bottom of the market”.

Well I am not.

All this will do is set the new price in the market, and as things get worse, that price will go down further.

This says to me that some have worked out the truth and we have entered the panic phase.

[Mrs Bear]

The Times B&M section is always a ramp-sheet par excellence. Not forgetting all the pieces about their smug mates with the Georgian rectory.

Interestingly, the Times main section today has a piece on what a jolly good time it is to buy that second home.

Quote from an EA in Newton Abbott, Devon:

"There is a positive attitude, viewings have increased and offers are being made. Frankly, I think a lot of people are bored of hearing about the credit crunch and want to get on with their lives. People who sold to rent have suddenly decided to buy and take advantage of lower prices."

I'm more convinced than ever that masses of journos have 2nd homes they're desperately trying to offload.

Linky:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle4439919.ece

[Realistbear]

Are we at the bottom yet?

A simple illustration might help describe where we are in relation to a bottom in the housikng market. IMagine a roller coaster. A very big roller coaster. One with a peak dip that touches the clouds. The rickety old "cosater" has reached the top and has begun to dip its nose down the other side. The wheels are going clackity-clack clackity clack--but there is a momentary gap between the clackity and the clack indicating that speed is only just building up. The passengers in the coaster are feeling a bit of breeze in their faces and their knuckles are going red from gripping the safety bar but haven't gone white yet. The stomach is, however, beginning to turn in anticipation of the terrifying drop ahead where the bottom is still hidden by the clouds.

So, are we at the bottom yet?

No.

[Fool's Gold]

Ms Ashworth seems to be away on holiday (reports of a continent-wide shortage of Bombay Sapphire have yet to be substantiated), but her fill-in Judith Heywood is certainly doing her very best. This week, she asks a bunch of estate agents and lenders if now is a good time to buy. Can you guess what they say?

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle4434860.ece

The interim report from Sir James Crosby this week maintained that there is no magic remedy for the ills of the mortgage market. With three more years of credit crunch predicted by the former head of HBOS, homebuyers could be forgiven for retreating deep into their garden with a jug of Pimm's and a cold compress.

But some experts maintain - even in this bleak sort of week- that, if you want to make a clever call on the bottom of the market, you had best pay attention not in 2010, 2011 or even 2017 (the various years in which house price recovery has been tipped) but now. Liam Bailey, Knight Frank's head of research, suggested this week that, just as cash-strapped homeowners are most inclined to avert their eyes, the biggest bargains may be emerging.

To overcome buyers' inertia, some agents report that determined sellers are setting prices 25 per cent below the peak - in one swoop offering a discount equal to the most extreme predicted house-price falls. The result? Cashed-up investors are massing, Bailey says, “desperate not to be the last to see the bottom of the market”.

Don't be misled: little sign of them buying has yet emerged, even in auction rooms. But Paul Tabor, of the property finders Garrington, agrees that cash-rich predators are “rubbing their hands with glee”. He expects the juiciest bargains to emerge within six months, while Bailey tips autumn next year as the turning point.

The savviest buyers will, as ever, be watching to see what the professionals are doing. But in this loans drought will any be able to snap up any bargains? The mortgage expert Ray Boulger, of Charcol, is unexpectedly upbeat: the past month has been “encouraging”, with swap rates peaking and the cost of some deals easing.

Boulger even suggests that interest rates may be cut in quick succession next year to as little as 4 per cent. There is little hope of the now-stricter criteria for loans being eased, but in a year's time buyers armed with higher wages and bigger savings could be well-placed to buy the more affordable homes. He says: “The challenge for buyers - who will, in the main, hold off until it's too late - is to get in while it's a buyers' market.”

OK, she does qualify things a bit, but still.... You'd almost think that the Bricks and Mortar section of The Times was merely a vehicle for advertising by developers and estate agents.

Oh well, those 35% price hikes by British Gas were all just a bad dream then. They're not going to affect inflation after all, mortgages will be cheap once again and the government will bail out the banks and estate agents under the guise of kick starting the housing market again. It makes me feel secure that I can get myself a whopping great mortgage for a tiny shoebox-home knowing that if I loose my job the government will be there to catch me and will talk nicely to my mortgage lender to 're-structure' my repayments.

What an ace country I live in. I'm off to buy an over-priced house..or I might just wait till I see more than 25k drops...the price drops around me I have noticed (with the help of property bee) ARE getting bigger. Drops are in 25k territory now not the piddling few k of a few months ago.

[JonoP]

Notice the emotional tenor of these articles. "Canny buyers" and "savvy predators" are "rubbing their hands with glee" etc etc.

Could they be any more blatant? Quick everyone, panic, we may never get another chance.

Yeah, have to agree here. This Judith Heywood bird is possibly even dumber than the peroxide nightmare Ashworth herself. She cannot write prose in any style other than 'Estate Agents Brochure'. The only surprise is that she omitted to use the word 'astute'.

[0q0]

Notice the emotional tenor of these articles. "Canny buyers" and "savvy predators" are "rubbing their hands with glee" etc etc.

Could they be any more blatant? Quick everyone, panic, we may never get another chance.

As to what "the professionals are doing", it was my understanding they were out property ages ago.

An aside really, a mechanism for the bull trap: it isn't a short-term rebound of sentiment that is the culprit, it is the over-specialised investor mentality. What I get from these articles is the sense that some people are, at least in their heads, one trick ponies. If you are property investor, when the market turns like this you should be a something-else investor (wheat? oil? certain stocks? maybe even just shove it in a bank account and go on holiday), but it just doesn't work like that. They are still desperately trying to find an opportunity and a reason to buy houses. The means have become confused with the end. Its a form of cargo-cultism [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult], keep going through the same actions that you thought "worked" before (e.g., anyone on Property Ladder who attributed their success to their eye for interior design) regardless of the fact the reasons it really worked have ceased to apply. I blame the decline of cricket in schools, learning that there are some deliveries you should just refuse to raise your bat to is a good lesson for life.

I thought that, add "cashed up". Silly twonks.

As said in my previous posts, I think the decline may be 2-pronged: people as described in that article may think that they will strike within the next 6 months, and then on to prong 2 when prices might drop well below what they bought at.

It happens in stock market crashes, then down it goes again. Property just can take quite a while longer to do the same, if the money supply to buy is much diminished and stays that way but for a half-time flurry of those salivating at what they perceive as the max discounts.

[Paddles]

I thought that, add "cashed up". Silly twonks.

As said in my previous posts, I think the decline may be 2-pronged: people as described in that article may think that they will strike within the next 6 months, and then on to prong 2 when prices might drop well below what they bought at.

It happens in stock market crashes, then down it goes again. Property just can take quite a while longer to do the same, if the money supply to buy is much diminished and stays that way but for a half-time flurry of those salivating at what they perceive as the max discounts.

That's right. People often forget that just because something has dropped 90% it can still drop another 50%.

Or as Bob says, "just when you think you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"....

[bobthe~]

That's right. People often forget that just because something has dropped 90% it can still drop another 50%.

Or as Bob says, "just when you think you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"....

I never said that, although it is true.

I had this dodgy curry a few years back...

[Austin Allegro]

Only a couple of months ago they were barking at people to keep buying. Those that did have now wasted their money. Christ, will this lot never give up? I guess only when the lynch mobs come for them.

Yes I love the way the journos went straight from 'property only goes up' to 'now is the trough of the bust' without actually mentioning the bust happening in the first place! They're so programmed to think property only goes up that they can only see a crash as an opportunity to buy, not a huge warning sign for the economy in general.