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House Price Crash Forum


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About JonoP

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  1. Certain people on this forum are prone to posting that they will not buy until prices return to where they were at (in terms of income multiples) in the mid nineties. I think that this is deluded. Houses in the mid nineties were undervalued, in the same way that they are overvalued today. I do not, in my lifetime, expect to see houseprice/income ratios return to where they were 15 to 20 years ago. The same people also often quote the ‘long term’ trend of average house prices averaging 3.5 times average income. Again, I think this model is flawed. The long term average spans many years where it was the norm for the husband to work and the wife to stay at home as a housewife. That model is now long gone. Both husbands and wives now routinely work so the new norm is the double income family. Finally, interest rates were historically a lot higher than they are now. This meant historically the cost of servicing a small loan was similar to the current cost of servicing a large loan. People argue that IRs will rise, and indeed I believe they will. But not by much and not very fast. I think that it is quite conceivable that someone taking out a new Mortgage today could see IRs stay below 2.5% for the entire duration of their mortgage. Look at Japan. So, although I would LIKE house prices to revert back to nineties levels in terms of price/income ratios, I do not think they will.
  2. I sell software for one of the larger US software companies. It is not glorious at all. In fact, at the moment, I quite dislike my job (hence Holland). In terms of money, after a certain amount you do not notice much difference, you just bank the ‘spare’ amount. I look at bankers bonuses with a degree of jealously. I am sure they look at oligarchs salaries with a degree of jealousy. It is the way of the world. I transferred from the UK to Aus with my current employer. If I move to Holland, it will be with a competitor. I work in a reasonably specialised field and there are not that many people to compete with for jobs. I also come from a poor background. In the nineties I was earning three pounds an hour (one hundred quid a week) and having to pay my rent and all my bills from that amount. It was harsh. However, you can better yourself if you put some effort in to it. In terms of work – remember that in your twenties you are getting experience. In your thirties you get paid for the experience…. But, the one thing you DO need to do is get off your butt and do something. Apply for other jobs. Take some risks. Go live overseas. Forget about money, if you are good at your job money will come anyway.
  3. Balls, I have been reading your posts for years now and there are two endlessly repeating themes. 1. How you might move to Germany 2. How you are jealous of people who earn more than you You need to pull your finger out and get on with life. Seriously, getting a cheap house is not the be all and end all of life. When you are on your death bed, the time you have spent obsessing about house prices will probably be a major source of regret. In the time that you have been vacillating about maybe moving to Germany I have moved from the UK to Aus and have now pretty much lined up my next job in Holland. Stop talking and start doing!!! Take a risk!!! And as for winning friends and influencing people - hmmm - you are assuming that I want to 'win' you as a friend Amusingly, I earn one of those six figure salaries you crave and my job revolves around winning friends and influencing people (I do sales). Just saying
  4. Bet you actually do nothing but sit on HPC whinging about how unfair it all is and how you might move to germany 'soon'.
  5. Ummm, yeah, it was mainly that that I was referring to....... And WOW, what a statement!!!! Taking down the CIA website!!!! That will change the world!!!! And mean they can steal music forever!!!!
  6. Alternatively, Daddy, why do a bunch of teenage geek misfits think that launching crude denial of service attacks against a couple of websites will further their cause in terms of continuing to be able to steal music? 'cause thats what it all seems to about.
  7. Our banks would have failed. That is the elephant in the room. They still will if they jack up IRs.
  8. But I want to live in the south east. And do not talk to me about nominal. I am earning $AUD at the moment. Nominal is my friend :-)
  9. But I want to live in the south east. And do not talk to me about nominal. I am earning $AUD at the moment. Nominal is my friend :-)
  10. Very happy thanks. It is summer over here in Aus and lfe is good. On on the subject of nappies though, I suspect you will be wearring one before me. In your rented care home :-)
  11. But I would own it.... I could take the money I spend on a car and stick it in a bank. The interest would probably cover the cost of my bus tickets. But I would not be to able to move around with the freedom that I enjoy as a car owner. The freedom is worth more to me that the money I save catching the bus. Hence I buy a car.
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