insidetrack Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Looking at the two indices you might expect the Nationwide to go negative first, since it is already at a lower figure. However, having studied the monthly figures, I predict the Halifax will go YoY negative first. This will happen in April and the Nationwide will go negative in May/June. Neither will go YoY positive until some indeterminate time in the next decade! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 (edited) Nationwide went QoQ negative first so I expect them to go YoY first too Edited March 6, 2008 by DoctorJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Can the VIs afford to admit YoY negative? It will change their entire vocabulary. No more: "house price growth slowing" "prices rising more slowly" "soft landing" "less rapid growth" etc. Instead the language will have to include such phrases as "house prices falling." IMO they will try to show smaller and smaller meaningless decreases and use 3 decimal places such as drops of 0.003% to try to convice the sheeple that while its dropping things will get better quite soon. Todays Halifax report admitting a microscopic 0.3% drop is typical of what we will get. IIRC they never admitted prices were falling in the last great crash? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyAnalyser Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Looking at the two indices you might expect the Nationwide to go negative first, since it is already at a lower figure.However, having studied the monthly figures, I predict the Halifax will go YoY negative first. This will happen in April and the Nationwide will go negative in May/June. Both will go YoY negative in April Neither will go YoY positive until some indeterminate time in the next decade! Hopefully 2010/11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 The conspiracy theories are unwarranted in my opinion. They've been publishing the data in a standard format for so long now that it would be a news item in itself if they stopped. Looking at the way the seasoning works, my gut feel is that the Halifax figures will indicate a significant fall in the April figures and Nationwide will follow the following month. Nationwide's don't look to be as heavily seasoned (only had a quick check so my maths might be flawed) as Halifax's which has the perverse effect of delaying the really big drop. Am I right, HPC-spreadsheet geeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyAnalyser Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 The conspiracy theories are unwarranted in my opinion. They've been publishing the data in a standard format for so long now that it would be a news item in itself if they stopped.Looking at the way the seasoning works, my gut feel is that the Halifax figures will indicate a significant fall in the April figures and Nationwide will follow the following month. Nationwide's don't look to be as heavily seasoned (only had a quick check so my maths might be flawed) as Halifax's which has the perverse effect of delaying the really big drop. Am I right, HPC-spreadsheet geeks? You are right, Nationwide generally season less based on the last 12 months figures which is all I've got in front of me at the moment. However, the Nationwide figures are already closer to going negative so, based on that, I am going to stick to my original estimate. Both negative YoY in April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 2005 false hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddles Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 2005 false hope Yes, yes, I can see the graphs but the key is the angle of drop which is determined by the seasoning. Halifax first, Nationwide after. April and May respectively.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc-craig Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Now i wasn't even looking at buying property when the 2005 false hope happened, but I had no idea that houses were rising by 20%, I figured 12-15% maximum. You can really see where that .25% base rate cut comes in too. Nothing to save it this time. My prediction is Halifax and Negative will go YOY in the April. Nationwide will report it first in their end of April report and Halifax in May. After that there is no come back. The champers is going to be 0 degrees celcius when poured, which'll be higher than YoY HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Just remember we've seen these graphs before a couple of years back when it went to almost zero then took off again. I will believe it when I see it, I've seen too many false dawns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Who cares if it`s Halifux or Nationslide who tell us that YoY has gone negative, as long as one of them spill the beans soon. It`ll be a good day, whoever drops that particular bombshell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Erm... who gives a cufk??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insidetrack Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Neck and neck now. Halifax has caught up the Nationwide and both are at 1.1% for March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Just remember we've seen these graphs before a couple of years back when it went to almost zero then took off again. I will believe it when I see it, I've seen too many false dawns. Yes we have. After that rate cut we had the biggest explosion of fraud and financial muppetry ever seen in this country. The banks are reeling form it now and most still haven't even begun to fess up quite what and to whom they have lent money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Halifax is already YoY negative. From the latest report: The only reason it's not showed up yet is that they're comparing 3 month averages. Have a look at the prices for March 2007 and March 2008. March 2007 £194,094 March 2008 £191,556 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insidetrack Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 Halifax is already YoY negative.From the latest report: The only reason it's not showed up yet is that they're comparing 3 month averages. Have a look at the prices for March 2007 and March 2008. March 2007 £194,094 March 2008 £191,556 Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure. Look at what happen between March and April 2007....... Dec 2006 594.4 8.4 183,645 Jan 2007 595.7 10.4 184,067 Feb 2007 612.3 11.0 189,197 Mar 2007 625.2 11.2 193,180 Apr 2007 641.5 10.4 198,206 May 2007 644.9 10.3 199,264 Jun 2007 645.5 11.4 199,458 Jul 2007 649.2 11.8 200,578 Aug 2007 650.8 11.0 201,081 Sep 2007 647.8 9.1 200,168 Oct 2007 640.2 6.7 197,817 Nov 2007 628.7 3.2 194,258 Dec 2007 632.2 6.4 195,333 Jan 2008 619.1 3.9 191,275 Feb 2008 626.1 2.2 193,448 Mar 2008 616.9 -1.3 190,619 So April,march,feb2007 average = 193.5 (total 580.5) So far feb+march 2008 = 384.1 so April2008 has to be 196.4 to equal 0% YoY So next month anything less than a 5.8k rise ( 3% MoM ) will send the YoY figure negative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImA20SomethingGetMeOutOfHere Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure. Look at what happen between March and April 2007.......Dec 2006 594.4 8.4 183,645 Jan 2007 595.7 10.4 184,067 Feb 2007 612.3 11.0 189,197 Mar 2007 625.2 11.2 193,180 Apr 2007 641.5 10.4 198,206 May 2007 644.9 10.3 199,264 Jun 2007 645.5 11.4 199,458 Jul 2007 649.2 11.8 200,578 Aug 2007 650.8 11.0 201,081 Sep 2007 647.8 9.1 200,168 Oct 2007 640.2 6.7 197,817 Nov 2007 628.7 3.2 194,258 Dec 2007 632.2 6.4 195,333 Jan 2008 619.1 3.9 191,275 Feb 2008 626.1 2.2 193,448 Mar 2008 616.9 -1.3 190,619 So April,march,feb2007 average = 193.5 (total 580.5) So far feb+march 2008 = 384.1 so April2008 has to be 196.4 to equal 0% YoY So next month anything less than a 5.8k rise ( 3% MoM ) will send the YoY figure negative. The bit that really warmed the cockles of my heart was the fact that prices are already about 8 grand down from the peak. That's about a year's rent. Free house! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken Holmes Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Can the VIs afford to admit YoY negative? It will change their entire vocabulary. No more: "house price growth slowing" "prices rising more slowly" "soft landing" "less rapid growth" etc.Instead the language will have to include such phrases as "house prices falling." IMO they will try to show smaller and smaller meaningless decreases and use 3 decimal places such as drops of 0.003% to try to convice the sheeple that while its dropping things will get better quite soon. Todays Halifax report admitting a microscopic 0.3% drop is typical of what we will get. IIRC they never admitted prices were falling in the last great crash? Did anybody else ever buy this 'soft landing' rubbish? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotNoodle Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Martin Ellis, HBOS Chief Economist says: (paraphrased)"Decade on decade growth has been massive and is only very slightly down in the last month." He also said "it is too early to say what this means in terms of house prices going forward" No, Martin. Growth has been negative for 7 months in a row. Down about 4%. Next month it is going to be down 6%. This is not "slight". Nor is it too early to say the words "bubble", "crash", "slump", "hang on to your hat for the really huge slide" etc etc. And lastly, Martin, house prices are not, just not, "going forward". Silly as people are, there is a limit to how far you can delude them. I think we have reached that limit. Now, the people will realise what is happening. And the crash will accelerate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken Holmes Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Erm...who gives a cufk??? Lol well given that this is a House Price Crash forum I would guess pretty much everybody!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insidetrack Posted April 8, 2008 Author Share Posted April 8, 2008 (edited) Updated graph. YoY negative for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. Edited April 8, 2008 by insidetrack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Updated graph. YoY for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. There is a slight difference in that NWide are slightly earlier in the month as well. So if they come out at zero and Hal come out -0.2 or something then I think a draw is a fair result. Interesting that these are also based on approvals, so are the properties that they are willing to lend on. I suggest that properties they are not willing to lend on are probably lower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 (edited) Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure. Stop perpetuating this myth that house prices are not YoY negative when they most certainly are. For f**ks sake, how many times do we have to suffer people here crowing about stocks falling just because they have a bad day? If you took a 3 month rolling average on the ftse it simply never would have a bad day. May I respectfully remind people that this site is called HousePriceCrash and not FTSECrash. I leave the last word to ImA20Something : Halifax is already YoY negative.The only reason it's not showed up yet is that they're comparing 3 month averages. Have a look at the prices for March 2007 and March 2008. March 2007 £194,094 March 2008 £191,556 Edited April 8, 2008 by Sledgehead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sambino Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Gordon Brown will be employing Robert Mugabe before too long to engineer the various housing indicators to avoid negative drops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyAnalyser Posted April 8, 2008 Share Posted April 8, 2008 Updated graph. YoY for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. It will be so nice to see negative numbers on the BBC YOY HPI chart next month ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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