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insidetrack

Nationwide Or Halifax To Go Yoy Negative First?

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Looking at the two indices you might expect the Nationwide to go negative first, since it is already at a lower figure.

However, having studied the monthly figures, I predict the Halifax will go YoY negative first. This will happen in April and the Nationwide will go negative in May/June.

Neither will go YoY positive until some indeterminate time in the next decade! :)

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Can the VIs afford to admit YoY negative? It will change their entire vocabulary. No more: "house price growth slowing" "prices rising more slowly" "soft landing" "less rapid growth" etc.

Instead the language will have to include such phrases as "house prices falling."

IMO they will try to show smaller and smaller meaningless decreases and use 3 decimal places such as drops of 0.003% to try to convice the sheeple that while its dropping things will get better quite soon.

Todays Halifax report admitting a microscopic 0.3% drop is typical of what we will get. IIRC they never admitted prices were falling in the last great crash?

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Looking at the two indices you might expect the Nationwide to go negative first, since it is already at a lower figure.

However, having studied the monthly figures, I predict the Halifax will go YoY negative first. This will happen in April and the Nationwide will go negative in May/June.

Both will go YoY negative in April

Neither will go YoY positive until some indeterminate time in the next decade! :)

Hopefully 2010/11.

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The conspiracy theories are unwarranted in my opinion. They've been publishing the data in a standard format for so long now that it would be a news item in itself if they stopped.

Looking at the way the seasoning works, my gut feel is that the Halifax figures will indicate a significant fall in the April figures and Nationwide will follow the following month. Nationwide's don't look to be as heavily seasoned (only had a quick check so my maths might be flawed) as Halifax's which has the perverse effect of delaying the really big drop. Am I right, HPC-spreadsheet geeks?

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The conspiracy theories are unwarranted in my opinion. They've been publishing the data in a standard format for so long now that it would be a news item in itself if they stopped.

Looking at the way the seasoning works, my gut feel is that the Halifax figures will indicate a significant fall in the April figures and Nationwide will follow the following month. Nationwide's don't look to be as heavily seasoned (only had a quick check so my maths might be flawed) as Halifax's which has the perverse effect of delaying the really big drop. Am I right, HPC-spreadsheet geeks?

You are right, Nationwide generally season less based on the last 12 months figures which is all I've got in front of me at the moment.

However, the Nationwide figures are already closer to going negative so, based on that, I am going to stick to my original estimate.

Both negative YoY in April.

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_41275454_house_prices_latest.gif

2005 false hope

_44459237_house_price_feb08_203gr.gif

Yes, yes, I can see the graphs but the key is the angle of drop which is determined by the seasoning. Halifax first, Nationwide after. April and May respectively....

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Now i wasn't even looking at buying property when the 2005 false hope happened, but I had no idea that houses were rising by 20%, I figured 12-15% maximum.

You can really see where that .25% base rate cut comes in too.

Nothing to save it this time.

My prediction is Halifax and Negative will go YOY in the April. Nationwide will report it first in their end of April report and Halifax in May.

After that there is no come back. The champers is going to be 0 degrees celcius when poured, which'll be higher than YoY HPI.

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Just remember we've seen these graphs before a couple of years back when it went to almost zero then took off again. I will believe it when I see it, I've seen too many false dawns.

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Who cares if it`s Halifux or Nationslide who tell us that YoY has gone negative, as long as one of them spill the beans soon. It`ll be a good day, whoever drops that particular bombshell.

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Just remember we've seen these graphs before a couple of years back when it went to almost zero then took off again. I will believe it when I see it, I've seen too many false dawns.

Yes we have.

After that rate cut we had the biggest explosion of fraud and financial muppetry ever seen in this country.

The banks are reeling form it now and most still haven't even begun to fess up quite what and to whom they have lent money.

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Halifax is already YoY negative.

From the latest report:

hpi.PNG

The only reason it's not showed up yet is that they're comparing 3 month averages.

Have a look at the prices for March 2007 and March 2008.

March 2007

£194,094

March 2008

£191,556

Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure. Look at what happen between March and April 2007.......

Dec 2006 594.4 8.4 183,645

Jan 2007 595.7 10.4 184,067

Feb 2007 612.3 11.0 189,197

Mar 2007 625.2 11.2 193,180

Apr 2007 641.5 10.4 198,206

May 2007 644.9 10.3 199,264

Jun 2007 645.5 11.4 199,458

Jul 2007 649.2 11.8 200,578

Aug 2007 650.8 11.0 201,081

Sep 2007 647.8 9.1 200,168

Oct 2007 640.2 6.7 197,817

Nov 2007 628.7 3.2 194,258

Dec 2007 632.2 6.4 195,333

Jan 2008 619.1 3.9 191,275

Feb 2008 626.1 2.2 193,448

Mar 2008 616.9 -1.3 190,619

So April,march,feb2007 average = 193.5 (total 580.5)

So far feb+march 2008 = 384.1 so April2008 has to be 196.4 to equal 0% YoY

So next month anything less than a 5.8k rise ( 3% MoM ) will send the YoY figure negative.

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Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure. Look at what happen between March and April 2007.......

Dec 2006 594.4 8.4 183,645

Jan 2007 595.7 10.4 184,067

Feb 2007 612.3 11.0 189,197

Mar 2007 625.2 11.2 193,180

Apr 2007 641.5 10.4 198,206

May 2007 644.9 10.3 199,264

Jun 2007 645.5 11.4 199,458

Jul 2007 649.2 11.8 200,578

Aug 2007 650.8 11.0 201,081

Sep 2007 647.8 9.1 200,168

Oct 2007 640.2 6.7 197,817

Nov 2007 628.7 3.2 194,258

Dec 2007 632.2 6.4 195,333

Jan 2008 619.1 3.9 191,275

Feb 2008 626.1 2.2 193,448

Mar 2008 616.9 -1.3 190,619

So April,march,feb2007 average = 193.5 (total 580.5)

So far feb+march 2008 = 384.1 so April2008 has to be 196.4 to equal 0% YoY

So next month anything less than a 5.8k rise ( 3% MoM ) will send the YoY figure negative.

The bit that really warmed the cockles of my heart was the fact that prices are already about 8 grand down from the peak. That's about a year's rent. Free house!

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Can the VIs afford to admit YoY negative? It will change their entire vocabulary. No more: "house price growth slowing" "prices rising more slowly" "soft landing" "less rapid growth" etc.

Instead the language will have to include such phrases as "house prices falling."

IMO they will try to show smaller and smaller meaningless decreases and use 3 decimal places such as drops of 0.003% to try to convice the sheeple that while its dropping things will get better quite soon.

Todays Halifax report admitting a microscopic 0.3% drop is typical of what we will get. IIRC they never admitted prices were falling in the last great crash?

Did anybody else ever buy this 'soft landing' rubbish? :lol:

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Martin Ellis, HBOS Chief Economist says: (paraphrased)

"Decade on decade growth has been massive and is only very slightly down in the last month."

He also said "it is too early to say what this means in terms of house prices going forward"

No, Martin. Growth has been negative for 7 months in a row. Down about 4%.

Next month it is going to be down 6%.

This is not "slight".

Nor is it too early to say the words "bubble", "crash", "slump", "hang on to your

hat for the really huge slide" etc etc.

And lastly, Martin, house prices are not, just not, "going forward".

Silly as people are, there is a limit to how far you can delude them.

I think we have reached that limit.

Now, the people will realise what is happening.

And the crash will accelerate.

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Updated graph. YoY negative for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. :)

_44548969_house_price_mar08_226x274.gif

post-8961-1207659464_thumb.png

Edited by insidetrack

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Updated graph. YoY for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. :)

:)

There is a slight difference in that NWide are slightly earlier in the month as well. So if they come out at zero and Hal come out -0.2 or something then I think a draw is a fair result.

Interesting that these are also based on approvals, so are the properties that they are willing to lend on. I suggest that properties they are not willing to lend on are probably lower

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Thanks. Even allowing for their 3 month average, next month looks a certainty for a negative YoY figure.

Stop perpetuating this myth that house prices are not YoY negative when they most certainly are.

For f**ks sake, how many times do we have to suffer people here crowing about stocks falling just because they have a bad day? If you took a 3 month rolling average on the ftse it simply never would have a bad day.

May I respectfully remind people that this site is called HousePriceCrash and not FTSECrash. I leave the last word to ImA20Something :

Halifax is already YoY negative.

The only reason it's not showed up yet is that they're comparing 3 month averages.

Have a look at the prices for March 2007 and March 2008.

March 2007

£194,094

March 2008

£191,556

Edited by Sledgehead

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Updated graph. YoY for the Halifax is a certainty for next months (April) figures. I suspect Nationwide's April YoY figure may just be slightly positive, if it goes negative too then it's a draw. :)

It will be so nice to see negative numbers on the BBC YOY HPI chart next month !

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