Black Monday

[dubsie]

This is the first time I've posted a black day post but I think this time there is a real possibility of a very bad day for the markets on Monday.

What do you think?

[babesagainstmachines]

This is the first time I've posted a black day post but I think this time there is a real possibility of a very bad day for the markets on Monday.

What do you think?

Friday was bad, so monday is more likely to be good than bad, but not as good as friday was bad. Or it could just be a bit "mmeh".

[Abteilung]

This is the first time I've posted a black day post but I think this time there is a real possibility of a very bad day for the markets on Monday.

What do you think?

Is it 100% guaranteed?

We've had posts on here that says the Dow is crashing, but it's still up on last year.

We've had posts here that say the pound is crashing against the dollar, it's actuallly coming off 26 year highs.

The best prediction when it comes to the wider economy is to use Evanomics;

"Well it maybe be looking bad but there again maybe not, there are some pressures in the economy but there are good signs too, blah, blah, blah"

Only one thing is certain, we've had a house price bubble, it's bursting

[mbga9pgf]

Is it 100% guaranteed?

We've had posts on here that says the Dow is crashing, but it's still up on last year.

We've had posts here that say the pound is crashing against the dollar, it's actuallly coming off 26 year highs.

The best prediction when it comes to the wider economy is to use Evanomics;

"Well it maybe be looking bad but there again maybe not, there are some pressures in the economy but there are good signs too, blah, blah, blah"

Only one thing is certain, we've had a house price bubble, it's bursting

Naah, i reckon rebound, then, midweek, another Sh*tload of bad news followed by end of next week finishing on the same level as now.

[FernandoMorientes]

Congratulations....can I do one the week after? Always like the BM threads the forum seems empty without

This is the first time I've posted a black day post but I think this time there is a real possibility of a very bad day for the markets on Monday.

What do you think?

[The Masked Tulip]

Times has an article today saying that bankers have pulled out of funding for two monoline insurers.

[conifer]

Another Black Monday forcast????

At the moment there seem to be two parallel economic outlooks - impending doom and resuming boom! There are lots of reduced price house ads in the papers yet builders seem to be marching on with new housing schemes. I get to hear about new schemes coming up to start of work - there seems to be no let-up in these yet.

I've said before - when we start to hear about lots of builders cancelling projects, we know there's a slump. Of course, even in a boom, the occasional scheme will be cancelled because of other factors like unforeseen expenses or a partner pulling out etc.

Edited March 1, 2008 by conifer

[Loadsofmoneyonce]

It’s the Pound vs Euro that’s more interesting! - Almost hit 1.30 on Friday, at one point.

If the feds keep cutting IR’s the pound will stay high against the Dollar.

[ScaredEitherWay]

builders seem to be marching on with new housing schemes. I get to hear about new schemes coming up to start of work - there seems to be no let-up in these yet.

They are businesses and it's a slow process. Having got to the stage of having planning permission, they need to at least get the foundations down so they can mothball the site.

As for the rest, they have to soldier on "business as usual" and at least complete what they've started because you can't easily sell half finished houses. And they have bank loans and shareholders to service. So they at least need to come to a dignified closure.

If you consider yourself as a business, if you think your company are going under do you just stop going to work? No, you go in, do what you can and see what happens. Same for them. You can't just give up and go home or jack it in so easily.

[right_freds_dead]

If you consider yourself as a business, if you think your company are going under do you just stop going to work? No, you go in, do what you can and see what happens. Same for them. You can't just give up and go home or jack it in so easily.

from my exp people in this position begin to drain off cash from the business as fast as they can, then go bust, or change all assets into someone elses name.

[domo]

meh black sunday IMO

[nowrentingandwaiting]

City bloke on Bloomberg today spoke about the end of an upward, depleting wedge formation in recent trading signalling a 1000 point correction in the next few weeks.

Down to 5000 soon but no black Monday ! ( not next Monday anyway ).

[beans on toast]

The market is not going to crash when everyone expects it - i say monday will be a small rally day. The crash is out there, but it'll happen when we least expect it.

[Realistbear]

Is it 100% guaranteed?

We've had posts on here that says the Dow is crashing, but it's still up on last year.

We've had posts here that say the pound is crashing against the dollar, it's actuallly coming off 26 year highs.

The best prediction when it comes to the wider economy is to use Evanomics;

"Well it maybe be looking bad but there again maybe not, there are some pressures in the economy but there are good signs too, blah, blah, blah"

Only one thing is certain, we've had a house price bubble, it's bursting

This is true. The only certainty IS the ongoing collapse of housing bubbles wherever they have occured.

In the wake of big HPCs comes the certainty of collateral damage. Recession. Recessions are not always a disaster for stocks that tend to be forward looking anyway. If we are just going to get a recession and nothing worse I can see the DOW down to around 11,000 but not much below that. FTSE should see a slightly worse drop as the collateral HPC damage here will be worse here than in the States given our much higher prices to wage ratios and the fact that our miracle economy is much more service industry dependent.

The other certainty with regard to currencies is that sterling is falling sharply vs. the Euro and will continue to drop vs. the US$ in the medium to longer term as the HPC gets worse here and the market realises the collateral damage is going to be worse than in the US.

The BIG question is what follows the HPC? Inflation of Deflation? Is cash or gold going to be the ultimate ruler of the earth?

Only 2 certain crashing items: UK house prices and Sterling.

[Barb E Dahl]

Another Black Monday forcast????

At the moment there seem to be two parallel economic outlooks - impending doom and resuming boom! There are lots of reduced price house ads in the papers yet builders seem to be marching on with new housing schemes. I get to hear about new schemes coming up to start of work - there seems to be no let-up in these yet.

I've said before - when we start to hear about lots of builders cancelling projects, we know there's a slump. Of course, even in a boom, the occasional scheme will be cancelled because of other factors like unforeseen expenses or a partner pulling out etc.

In light of the recent changes with deposits required to obtain a mortgage, I expect builders will do pretty well in the near future. I expect many FTBs without a significant deposit will be attracted to the '5% deals' on new builds.

[_w_]

Monday's outcome belongs to the japanese housewife

If she freaks out about her next sushi going the way of the dollar, Tokyo will tank and so will Europe (it's got some catching up to do with the Dow anyway).

The only thing I am fairly confident about is that short of a _proper_ crash, Helicopter Ben won't be able to lower rates before the next FOMC meet. The Dow is trading without the sort of instant Bernanke put it's enjoyed the past few months.

Then again, the japanese housewife might have had great sex over the weekend, and everything will shoot up. What do I know?

[Assurbanipal]

Is it 100% guaranteed?

We've had posts on here that says the Dow is crashing, but it's still up on last year.

We've had posts here that say the pound is crashing against the dollar, it's actuallly coming off 26 year highs.

The best prediction when it comes to the wider economy is to use Evanomics;

"Well it maybe be looking bad but there again maybe not, there are some pressures in the economy but there are good signs too, blah, blah, blah"

Only one thing is certain, we've had a house price bubble, it's bursting

The Dow isn't especially up

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/in...eq=1&time=9

In last 6 months is strongly down.

We have bear market regardless of coming Black Monday or not coming, bad news, lack of liquidity consistently drags markets anyway. They will go up and down but in longer term will head down, together with house prices.

[The Masked Tulip]

Monday's outcome belongs to the japanese housewife

If she freaks out about her next sushi going the way of the dollar, Tokyo will tank and so will Europe (it's got some catching up to do with the Dow anyway).

The only thing I am fairly confident about is that short of a _proper_ crash, Helicopter Ben won't be able to lower rates before the next FOMC meet. The Dow is trading without the sort of instant Bernanke put it's enjoyed the past few months.

Then again, the japanese housewife might have had great sex over the weekend, and everything will shoot up. What do I know?

Is it true that every Japanese housewife has a schoolgirl uniform in their closet?

[Sinking Feeling]

I've said for a while that I expect the low point to be in March, then rebound before going into terminal decline in the second Quarter next year!

[waitingandsaving]

I was thinking it had been a while since the last black Monday thread...

I think if ever there was a Monday that should be black - it should be this one... for no other reason than it's the Labour conference this weekend, and presumably Gordo should be reasonably easy to track down on Monday for a response... unless, of course there is a mysterious need to suddenly disappear to see the flower growers being given a fair wage in Africa or somesuch...

It's crazy - there's been very little real news (despite all the financial turmoil) for the last few weeks, and Gordo has seemingly disappeared - it's time things started to happen that can't be swept under the carpet, and time the Prime Minister bothered to respond :angry:

[Abteilung]

The Dow isn't especially up

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/in...eq=1&time=9

In last 6 months is strongly down.

All this proves is that we are choosing our time parameters to 'prove' our arguments My point is that the only certainty IMHO is that houseprices will go down in the next few years, the dow? the dollar? Up over the last year, 26 year high, crashing in the last 6 months, pound is crashing against the dollar in the last few months, we're all doomed, it won't be that bad, maybe, maybe not.

Take your pick, none of us know what the wider economy will do in the next few years, 100% guaranteed.

[whoami]

meh black sunday IMO

Yep. Watch Asia, Sunday night. Could get interesting. (Again.)

[_w_]

My point is that the only certainty IMHO is that houseprices will go down in the next few years.

Take your pick, none of us know what the wider economy will do in the next few years, 100% guaranteed.

Agreed with the latter but with houseprices who knows? In this country the housing market is just as speculative as the stock market.

[Ah-so]

Monday's outcome belongs to the japanese housewife

If she freaks out about her next sushi going the way of the dollar, Tokyo will tank and so will Europe (it's got some catching up to do with the Dow anyway).

The only thing I am fairly confident about is that short of a _proper_ crash, Helicopter Ben won't be able to lower rates before the next FOMC meet. The Dow is trading without the sort of instant Bernanke put it's enjoyed the past few months.

Then again, the japanese housewife might have had great sex over the weekend, and everything will shoot up. What do I know?

Not very much about Japanese housewives from the sounds of it!

[_w_]

Is it true that every Japanese housewife has a schoolgirl uniform in their closet?

It's true if those movies on the net are anything to go by.