Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[cashinmattress]

53 minutes ago, ABZ_RVK said:

Agree for that property 450 is way overpriced. 

Sheesh. Who are the people buying these?

The mortgage costs, taxes, upkeep, even heating is untenable for the vast majority of locals, and even Brits!

[AD14]

Some news on the North Sea oil industry: EnQuest buys 25% stage in BP's Magnus platform and also acquires operatorship.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/129566/bp-sells-25-stake-north-sea-magnus-field-enquest/

The deal also includes a small (3%) interest in the Sullum Voe terminal, too.

 

[sfr]

9 minutes ago, AD14 said:

Some news on the North Sea oil industry: EnQuest buys 25% stage in BP's Magnus platform and also acquires operatorship.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/129566/bp-sells-25-stake-north-sea-magnus-field-enquest/

The deal also includes a small (3%) interest in the Sullum Voe terminal, too.

 

Haha. So much for BP blah blah we are committed to the North Sea blah blah.

Enquest. There's an interesting sale. They aren't exactly in the best of financial health are they?

Also more interestingly, BP were (are near the end) of an 18 week EOR project for Magnus. AmecFW are doing it...

Spose that's now off the cards? 

[ABZ_RVK]

31 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Sheesh. Who are the people buying these?

The mortgage costs, taxes, upkeep, even heating is untenable for the vast majority of locals, and even Brits!

Just curious to find out. Does this house even worth £400K i would imagine in the region of £350K? Feel sorry for the current owner. 

[AD14]

9 minutes ago, sfr said:

Haha. So much for BP blah blah we are committed to the North Sea blah blah.

Enquest. There's an interesting sale. They aren't exactly in the best of financial health are they?

Also more interestingly, BP were (are near the end) of an 18 week EOR project for Magnus. AmecFW are doing it...

Spose that's now off the cards? 

I don't know much about the internal goings on of BP or the Magnus platform, but I agree I am quite surprised about the buyer given the financial problems they've been in.recently. I guess BP's main focus is on their newer assets rather than the 30+ year old Magnus.

There might be more deals like this coming up. It's recently been reported that Shell is closing in on a deal for some of its North Sea assets. 

[AD14]

3 hours ago, ABZ_RVK said:

Valuation of £550K asking price £395K ... Thats a massive drop

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/341222/Mill-House--Balgownie-Road/Aberdeen/

That's below £2000/square metre! 

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, AD14 said:

I don't know much about the internal goings on of BP or the Magnus platform, but I agree I am quite surprised about the buyer given the financial problems they've been in.recently. I guess BP's main focus is on their newer assets rather than the 30+ year old Magnus.

There might be more deals like this coming up. It's recently been reported that Shell is closing in on a deal for some of its North Sea assets. 

Enquest is not really a beacon of North Sea success stories to date.

https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.xlsx

Edited January 24, 2017 by cashinmattress

[shortbread]

Hmmm, as per the Aspc report, in another year the prices will 'officially' fall below the '09 levels!

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by shortbread

[quine]

On 23/01/2017 at 2:02 PM, ABZ_RVK said:

Hi All,

This is my first post. I have been reading this topic for last few days. I have been living in Aberdeen for last 8 years. I need some help/guidance. 

I bought a 2 bedroom Apartment in 2010 in Aberdeen City Center. Apartment is just opposite to Aberdeen Sports village. We now have kids and thinking of selling this property to buy a bigger property mostly a 3 bedroom or 4 bedroom house.

From my initial analysis and research, if i sell the flat now, i believe i might be able to get back a very small profit( couple of grands - between  £2000 ~ £5000) taking a very conservative estimate. 

We bought the apartment for circa £148,000 in 2010 and current Zoopla valuation shows around £160,000. So taking into the current downtrend i guess we can atleast make couple of grands if not more. 

my question is we are bit confused whether to sell and buy a bigger house or should we continue to wait. Ideally i would prefer to wait but the only reason we are thinking to sell and buy now is that my kids will be starting school in September 2018 next year and we wanted to move to a area near good schools. Especially looking for house near Mile End Primary School( Near AB15 or AB25 post codes ). 

Of course house in post codes AB15 & AB25 are still very high and thats why i am thinking whether to buy or wait for the prices to still come down. Both me and my wife are currently employed. My wife works with a Oil & gas company and i work as an IT consultant( both of us earn above the UK average salary). Both our companies have gone through 2 rounds of redundancy. No one knows when the next will come. We know the risk involved but are willing to take a call and at the same time trying to keep the risk as low as possible.

The houses we have been looking in AB15 & AB25 are in the range in of £300,000 to £390,000 . This will be a big jump for us from a Flat @ £150 to house at £300K+ 

I understand its difficult to find the bottom of the market but same time i dont want to take too much risk. Is my understanding correct that the fall in price for a house is more than flats? Some of my friends and EA's told me that generally the drop n price is much higher for houses compared to flats. if this is true should i wait some more time? I guess at-least till beginning of next year? if this means when selling my property i might have to take a small loss but same time gaining in a brigger price drop when  buying a bigger house? 

 

Any suggestions? what you will do if you are in our shoes? Sell & buy or Continue to wait ? Appreciate any inputs. 

IMO renting is the way to go in Aberdeen just now.  However, it might be difficult to sell your flat at the moment.  No one takes any notice of Zoopla valuations.  They are nonesense.  The situation isn't getting any better in Aberdeen but The Crash hasn't happened yet. 

Personally I'd be too scared to do anything other than sit tight at the moment.    There are lots of houses coming on the market just now that have been bought over the past couple of years by people in your circumstances (people feeling safe after surviving redundancy threats and then it actually happening).  Unless you have the cash available to buy one of those houses you want without a large mortgage I'd stay put.  House/flat prices in Aberdeen aren't going anywhere but down.

[ABZ_RVK]

7 minutes ago, quine said:

IMO renting is the way to go in Aberdeen just now.  However, it might be difficult to sell your flat at the moment.  No one takes any notice of Zoopla valuations.  They are nonesense.  The situation isn't getting any better in Aberdeen but The Crash hasn't happened yet. 

Personally I'd be too scared to do anything other than sit tight at the moment.    There are lots of houses coming on the market just now that have been bought over the past couple of years by people in your circumstances (people feeling safe after surviving redundancy threats and then it actually happening).  Unless you have the cash available to buy one of those houses you want without a large mortgage I'd stay put.  House/flat prices in Aberdeen aren't going anywhere but down.

Many Thanks for your inputs. 

I have been closely following House prices in Aberdeen market but it is quite confusing at time.

I am under the assumption that the house price has returned to the 2009 or 2010 levels and it is likely to go down further. I can see some properties bought around 2009/2010 is now back on to the market for almost the same price it was bought in 2009/2010. However in some cases i can also see poeple asking for a huge profit on what they have paid in 2009/2010. 

 

For example this property https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/351204/77-Collieston-Circle/Aberdeen/ is now listed for £390K but the current owner paid around £240K in 2010. So the owner is expecting a profit of £150K in current market? Ofcourse the owner has extended the property but will it make such a big difference? 

 

[AD14]

On 23/01/2017 at 2:02 PM, ABZ_RVK said:

Any suggestions? what you will do if you are in our shoes? Sell & buy or Continue to wait ? Appreciate any inputs. 

As @quine says, renting may be an option to move into a bigger property more suitable for a family. The rental market seems to have been hit much harder, so this might be a good option for those who want to see where things go in the next few years, and don't want to risk buying a property that is declining in value.

Although the overall trend in Aberdeen property prices is down, there seems to be a big variance in the exact values. Some seem to still be going for what we in this forum would consider to be bubble prices, as if the oil boom is still ongoing, whereas others seem to have went down significantly more than the trend (circa 8-10% YoY I think). So you may be able to secure a property that meets your needs at a much more palatable price than is advertised.

There's also the issue of your current apartment. Given its location close across from ASV, and hence really close to the university, it may be easier to sell than other comparable properties.

Ultimately, it's your call, and only you'll know what's best for your family and financial situation. I would just make sure that you are armed with the data, such as the ASPC reports and Rightmove - who publish residential property transactions alongside the previous sale prices, and allow you to search by postcode - so you can hopefully make a better decision.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Aberdeen.html

 

[ABZ_RVK]

16 hours ago, AD14 said:

As @quine says, renting may be an option to move into a bigger property more suitable for a family. The rental market seems to have been hit much harder, so this might be a good option for those who want to see where things go in the next few years, and don't want to risk buying a property that is declining in value.

Although the overall trend in Aberdeen property prices is down, there seems to be a big variance in the exact values. Some seem to still be going for what we in this forum would consider to be bubble prices, as if the oil boom is still ongoing, whereas others seem to have went down significantly more than the trend (circa 8-10% YoY I think). So you may be able to secure a property that meets your needs at a much more palatable price than is advertised.

There's also the issue of your current apartment. Given its location close across from ASV, and hence really close to the university, it may be easier to sell than other comparable properties.

Ultimately, it's your call, and only you'll know what's best for your family and financial situation. I would just make sure that you are armed with the data, such as the ASPC reports and Rightmove - who publish residential property transactions alongside the previous sale prices, and allow you to search by postcode - so you can hopefully make a better decision.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/Aberdeen.html

 

Thanks for your inputs. 

I will explore more about renting a bigger home. I did a quick search for 3 bedroom houses for rent near to Mile End primary School. AB25 & AB15 post code and the ones i have seen in gumtree and citylets are showing up at £1200+ per month. 

This is my dilemma. Currently on our flat i am paying a mortgage of £470 month( this includes interest and captial re-payement ). The mortgage payment are less as i have overpaid regularly. So i will end up almost £700 extra from my pocket. 

I am trying to find out if i am going on renting for couple of years paying anywhere between £1000 to £1200 per month V/S buying a home now and even if the crash happens how much more the price can come down? Will the difference be more than the extra amount I will be paying for rent? 

Will try to work out some numbers and see how it goes. 

[babo456]

21 hours ago, AD14 said:

Some news on the North Sea oil industry: EnQuest buys 25% stage in BP's Magnus platform and also acquires operatorship.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/129566/bp-sells-25-stake-north-sea-magnus-field-enquest/

The deal also includes a small (3%) interest in the Sullum Voe terminal, too.

 

There always seems to be a dodgey bank/auditor behind these deals who will make a fortune in 'fees' and will advise the client to go ahead. You would think big companies would know this. JPMoron, Goldmansucks, KPMG all those types.

17 hours ago, ABZ_RVK said:

Many Thanks for your inputs. 

I have been closely following House prices in Aberdeen market but it is quite confusing at time.

I am under the assumption that the house price has returned to the 2009 or 2010 levels and it is likely to go down further. I can see some properties bought around 2009/2010 is now back on to the market for almost the same price it was bought in 2009/2010. However in some cases i can also see poeple asking for a huge profit on what they have paid in 2009/2010. 

 

For example this property https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/351204/77-Collieston-Circle/Aberdeen/ is now listed for £390K but the current owner paid around £240K in 2010. So the owner is expecting a profit of £150K in current market? Ofcourse the owner has extended the property but will it make such a big difference? 

 

I've been looking to move out for a while now. I'll be 27 this year, still with parents. Been saving up a deposit and make just slightly above the UK average salary. Have a niche NHS job here plus being funded to do an MSc so can't really leave easily as much as I don't like the city. (I am Aberdonian)

It an odd market at the moment. I have my eye on a 2 bed semi at offers over 170k - I personally would be wanting to pay probably 140k max. Which would be around 2008 levels for that street - however some did go for 180ish in 2008. Mad as these houses were changing hands for 80-100k in 2004!!! Crazy how they shot up in price.

I had my eye on one house in kingswells at 210k (way over my budget but just keeping an eye on it) and it was bought in OCT 2015 for 210k, sold in OCT 2016 for 160k... so drops are happening. As well as people still paying over!...

I want to move out and be a 'proper'adult and renting just isn't for me. I would rather get a mortgage. Although as others say, renting may well be better for certain people at the moment in this city.

 

[shortbread]

2 hours ago, ABZ_RVK said:

Thanks for your inputs. 

I will explore more about renting a bigger home. I did a quick search for 3 bedroom houses for rent near to Mile End primary School. AB25 & AB15 post code and the ones i have seen in gumtree and citylets are showing up at £1200+ per month. 

This is my dilemma. Currently on our flat i am paying a mortgage of £470 month( this includes interest and captial re-payement ). The mortgage payment are less as i have overpaid regularly. So i will end up almost £700 extra from my pocket. 

I am trying to find out if i am going on renting for couple of years paying anywhere between £1000 to £1200 per month V/S buying a home now and even if the crash happens how much more the price can come down? Will the difference be more than the extra amount I will be paying for rent? 

Will try to work out some numbers and see how it goes. 

Hi ABZ_RVK,

Don't pay attention to advertised rents and haggle with the landlords or letting agents like you are in a bazaar! Trust me, I did the same a few months back and negotiated for every property I was interested in and 80% of the time they came back with reduced rents.

The fall in rents is greater in bigger properties, a 3 bed in the City center area now is well below £1k. The best thing you can do is to use the ASPC site and draw the area you are interested in the map function. Send emails to the landlords/letting agents and explain what you are willing to pay. Negotiate hard, especially if you are looking for a 1 year let. 

I am quite sure over the next year the fall in house prices will be greater than your rent outgoing for 12 months.

[babo456]

2nd shortbread. 

If you really really need to move out now then might be worth renting. 

Also worth noting 100's if not 1000's of homes due to come online in next few years. About 500 being built in BOD plus mugiemoss is about to have 100's more built in top of the newish ones built in the last 2 years or so. 

 

 

 

[ABZ_RVK]

19 hours ago, AD14 said:

 

1 hour ago, shortbread said:

Hi ABZ_RVK,

Don't pay attention to advertised rents and haggle with the landlords or letting agents like you are in a bazaar! Trust me, I did the same a few months back and negotiated for every property I was interested in and 80% of the time they came back with reduced rents.

The fall in rents is greater in bigger properties, a 3 bed in the City center area now is well below £1k. The best thing you can do is to use the ASPC site and draw the area you are interested in the map function. Send emails to the landlords/letting agents and explain what you are willing to pay. Negotiate hard, especially if you are looking for a 1 year let. 

I am quite sure over the next year the fall in house prices will be greater than your rent outgoing for 12 months.

Thanks for the tips on haggling. 

1 hour ago, babo456 said:

2nd shortbread. 

If you really really need to move out now then might be worth renting. 

Also worth noting 100's if not 1000's of homes due to come online in next few years. About 500 being built in BOD plus mugiemoss is about to have 100's more built in top of the newish ones built in the last 2 years or so. 

 

 

 

Thanks. Yeah the builders are still building, will be interesting to know if there are any more new home buyers left in the market. 

[spyguy]

https://forums.theregister.co.uk/forum/1/2017/01/25/gov_advising_it_contractors_to_hike_fees_by_20_per_cent_to_avoid_ir35_exodus/

'In the oil industry.

Before the **** fell out of it probably 50% plus workers were contractors. The companies liked it this way because they could hire and fire at will dependent on workload or whether they actually liked the contractor or not.

When things pick up the oil companies will be wanting contractors back again on 6 to 12 month stints, but of course the goalposts have moved greatly in the past two years.

There's gonna be a crisis because a lot of the contractors were not from Aberdeen originally and have gone home, and the ones that are left will realise the tax system has changed and they can only draw 5k without penalty.

This has been a total screw up and to save a penny the government will lose a hell of a lot more.'

Bless his optimism!

Very few people are going back to Aberdeen.

[Unbowed]

There's gonna be a crisis because a lot of the contractors were not from Aberdeen originally and have gone home, and the ones that are left will realise the tax system has changed and they can only draw 5k without penalty.

I gave up IT contracting due to IR35, coinciding with the mass redundancies when the big cos starting importing Indians en masse. When will HMRC realise that IR35 has cost them billions, just so some of the larger corporations that lobbied for it (in particular EDS) could remove the competition. I dare say the big companies in Oil welcomed its effect too. In time the PCG won no end of cases and IR35 was effectively beaten. So why not just quietly bin it. Apart from the Exp changes and Divi tax is there something else I don't know - i.e. while I've been permy have they been tweaking it to make sure everyone other than Actors, Butlers, Nannies  & Govt Advisors are definitely court?

If you screw people too much, then they simply don't bother anymore. What part of that don't they understand ?

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

https://forums.theregister.co.uk/forum/1/2017/01/25/gov_advising_it_contractors_to_hike_fees_by_20_per_cent_to_avoid_ir35_exodus/

 

That doesn't really apply in Aberdeen any more.

There are what... 50-80k people no longer in the patch who have the prerequisite 'engineering skills' to work at the likes of Wood Group?

Where else is there bountiful and good paying work for somebody who uses MS Project or Primavera, or is a professional group thinker and meeting sitter?

So more like.... drop your rates by 20% to get some work... or more apt, like 55%+.

Even worse for the legions of BS engineers up here who've for years been hiding behind dodgy degrees & quals, and raking it in.

Pencils are so sharp up here you could slice a hydrocarbon molecule in two.

IR35 oil and gas 'contractors' for the most part have a big bulls-eye on their backs, primed for an audit, only a matter of time... particularly if there's been huge swings in your income stream.

Edited January 25, 2017 by cashinmattress

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Unbowed said:

There's gonna be a crisis because a lot of the contractors were not from Aberdeen originally and have gone home, and the ones that are left will realise the tax system has changed and they can only draw 5k without penalty.

I gave up IT contracting due to IR35, coinciding with the mass redundancies when the big cos starting importing Indians en masse. When will HMRC realise that IR35 has cost them billions, just so some of the larger corporations that lobbied for it (in particular EDS) could remove the competition. I dare say the big companies in Oil welcomed its effect too. In time the PCG won no end of cases and IR35 was effectively beaten. So why not just quietly bin it. Apart from the Exp changes and Divi tax is there something else I don't know - i.e. while I've been permy have they been tweaking it to make sure everyone other than Actors, Butlers, Nannies  & Govt Advisors are definitely court?

If you screw people too much, then they simply don't bother anymore. What part of that don't they understand ?

The way around IR35 surely is not to spoof as a FT head and have side earnings/job on the side.

Rather than work 12 months for one compnay, do a side job in teaching, or writing a book, anything but have a single income source from a single company.

My brother does this. Ive told him time + time again that he needs to run courses, offer the odd  weekend, anything, just to make sure his income does not come from one source.

[ABZ_RVK]

23 hours ago, babo456 said:

There always seems to be a dodgey bank/auditor behind these deals who will make a fortune in 'fees' and will advise the client to go ahead. You would think big companies would know this. JPMoron, Goldmansucks, KPMG all those types.

I've been looking to move out for a while now. I'll be 27 this year, still with parents. Been saving up a deposit and make just slightly above the UK average salary. Have a niche NHS job here plus being funded to do an MSc so can't really leave easily as much as I don't like the city. (I am Aberdonian)

It an odd market at the moment. I have my eye on a 2 bed semi at offers over 170k - I personally would be wanting to pay probably 140k max. Which would be around 2008 levels for that street - however some did go for 180ish in 2008. Mad as these houses were changing hands for 80-100k in 2004!!! Crazy how they shot up in price.

I had my eye on one house in kingswells at 210k (way over my budget but just keeping an eye on it) and it was bought in OCT 2015 for 210k, sold in OCT 2016 for 160k... so drops are happening. As well as people still paying over!...

I want to move out and be a 'proper'adult and renting just isn't for me. I would rather get a mortgage. Although as others say, renting may well be better for certain people at the moment in this city.

 

Yes agree its been crazy. I am surprised to know how people could be so crazy to pay so much for something which may not be really that value for money. The owner staying just above our flat( we are on 1st floor, so i am talking about the second floor ) paid £218K around mid 2014. Their house is exactly same as us. No difference at all. Its well maintained just as ours. However they paid crazy money in 2014. Today we might struggle to sell the house for £155k to £160k 

lot of people who bought their house between 2014 and 2016 have paid a lot of money. The market was crazy 2 years back. Never realized it could turn around so quickly and guess the worst is yet to come. 

[Gush]

15 hours ago, Unbowed said:

There's gonna be a crisis because a lot of the contractors were not from Aberdeen originally and have gone home, and the ones that are left will realise the tax system has changed and they can only draw 5k without penalty.

I gave up IT contracting due to IR35, coinciding with the mass redundancies when the big cos starting importing Indians en masse. When will HMRC realise that IR35 has cost them billions, just so some of the larger corporations that lobbied for it (in particular EDS) could remove the competition. I dare say the big companies in Oil welcomed its effect too. In time the PCG won no end of cases and IR35 was effectively beaten. So why not just quietly bin it. Apart from the Exp changes and Divi tax is there something else I don't know - i.e. while I've been permy have they been tweaking it to make sure everyone other than Actors, Butlers, Nannies  & Govt Advisors are definitely court?

If you screw people too much, then they simply don't bother anymore. What part of that don't they understand ?

In addition to exp, divi rules change they are making sure Govt. Contracts dont go through personal service company but only through hand picked umbrella companies or full PAYE company.  TFL has started this and I hear other private contracts also will be forced to go this route from 2018,

[Unbowed]

13 minutes ago, Gush said:

In addition to exp, divi rules change they are making sure Govt. Contracts dont go through personal service company but only through hand picked umbrella companies or full PAYE company.  TFL has started this and I hear other private contracts also will be forced to go this route from 2018,

Oh I see. So further meddling to force everyone onto PAYE, but of course don't pay them redundancy at the end of their 'employment' whilst reminding them that they are self employed when out of work.

I gave up due to being offered ever lower rates in late 2004. But I kept my PCG membership and Ltd for some years. A few years down the line I was under the impression, that the PCG effectively disarmed IR35 with over 4000 victories. So did the tide turn back?

If I were contracting now, post Pensions A day, I'd be maxing my SIPP contributions.

[ccc]

15 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Where else is there bountiful and good paying work for somebody who uses MS Project or Primavera, or is a professional group thinker and meeting sitter?

Edinburgh in financial services doing the sort of stuff I do ?

Well that's probably what many were planning on until Williams and Glyn was canned back in August. 

I was speaking to a decent recruitment consultant yesterday. Asked him about the market. Says even now - 5 months after that announcement they get 100+ CV's in for each advertised role. 20-30 he says are good potential candidates.

He said back in August / September it was 200+.

It's a double whammy in Scotland for project type work just now. Of course there is still work around - but the sheer numbers looking is huge.

I tried to explain this to all the "Oh don't worry it will pick up in a few months" folk I kept on hearing back in August. But few were interested (Or probably would rather not face up to reality)

Now not all of W and G was based in Edinburgh. And lots was outsourced etc.

However in terms of numbers that single programme of work was Edinburgh's FIFTH largest employer by itself. People just don't get the scale of that just shutting shop means. 

NHS

Edinburgh City council

RBS

Lloyd's

W and G 

 

[shortbread]

Quote

An increasing number of former oil workers are bring forced to turn to food banks, because of redundancy.

Aberdeen charity, Instant Neighbour, has revealed an increasing number of people who have lost their jobs are struggling to find new employment and have spent all their savings.

The charity confirmed that food stocks ran dangerously low during the festive period.

Susan Cheyne, business development manager at Instant Neighbour, said: “We have seen a huge increase in the number of people using the food bank and, in the last year, we handed out over 4,000 food parcels.

Am I supposed to fall for this sob story?!......

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/129818/increasing-number-oil-workers-turning-food-banks/