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Aberdeen, Aspc Stats


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HOLA441

Aberdeen now has "black friday" sales on property...

http://banconhomes.com

Was £230k now... £185k for 65m²

Don't all go rushing at once tomorrow.

What f***ing idiot thought up this promotion?

Think how many customers that just bought they are going to p*** off. (Not that the prices won't go down anyway though but advertising it like this is stupid).

 

Surely people getting stung like this will make them think twice about these new builds?

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HOLA442
4 minutes ago, reverand_cat said:

What f***ing idiot thought up this promotion?

Think how many customers that just bought they are going to p*** off. (Not that the prices won't go down anyway though but advertising it like this is stupid).

 

Surely people getting stung like this will make them think twice about these new builds?

 Seems reasonable.  If they are not selling, a discount is needed.  Black Friday, BOGOF,  children go free, etc.  Who cares.  Whatever works will do.

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HOLA443
15 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 Seems reasonable.  If they are not selling, a discount is needed.  Black Friday, BOGOF,  children go free, etc.  Who cares.  Whatever works will do.

Yes they need to sell anyway possible. Just the way it is advertised will p*** off customers. Not good for business built on trust.

 

Anyway, yes prices are gonna go down. And loads more will get stung.

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HOLA444
4 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

This is especially true for the massive head count of 'any function' 'engineers' who aren't even qualified to journeymen levels who've pervaded the industry over the past decades.

The "I did a 2 week course, now pay me £50k" types. Goodbye and good riddance.

Its also difficult for 'proper' discipline engineers with an EPC pedigree.... Iain Woods god children, lets call them.

Those who are well educated, practical and multi-disciplined are always in demand.

There's always exceptions and having a reputation and/or connection trumps everything else.

But it's still difficult. People are still being let go, just not  high enough on the sexy news scale for the papers and TV news.

 

Sheesh. The amount of folk I've interviewed who cannot reply in first person to a question, ie: "we did this, we did that", just doesn't cut it.

Now probably isn't a good time to be looking for EPC type work, in any industry. 

Those that I know who have managed to switch to other industries have generally been those with transferable skills, e.g. CAD, FEA, or working in positions like civil or structural engineering that is quite in demand at the moment, with all of the construction projects going on.

 

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HOLA445
28 minutes ago, AD14 said:

Now probably isn't a good time to be looking for EPC type work, in any industry. 

Those that I know who have managed to switch to other industries have generally been those with transferable skills, e.g. CAD, FEA, or working in positions like civil or structural engineering that is quite in demand at the moment, with all of the construction projects going on.

CAD yes.

FEA yes.

Good at calculus, linear algebra, statistics... like any good engineer should be... you'll never be out of work for want of trying.

A good CAD designer + detailer is worth their weight gold- pressed latinum. Sadly the art of detail draughting is almost lost. Same goes for those who do bolting, tuning of machinery, complex rigging & lifting, surveying... all the old school stuff. I can't even quantify how many times I've put 'professionals' out to survey and they've come back missing critical details.... plus with blurry photos from greasy gloves touching the lens... or even better, out of focus close ups. You abseiling inspection lot are a menace. (you know who you are)

Everything now is just expected to work...because technology.

I've seen or witnessed the effects of several very dodgy constructions in the North Sea due to very poor base engineering skill mucking about on advanced FE software. Some so infamous that huge contracts were lost and people were casualties of. I'm sure those in the biz know what I'm on about.

Plenty of LOLER 'competent' inspectors haven't a scooby of what a Newton is.

Plenty of 'OIE's' don't have scooby about stress, strain, corrosion, failure mechanics.

Plenty of the North Sea backbone know lots about p1sh fooite banter, chain smoking, work avoidance, spreading sedition, and generally acting like the miserable uneducated back-talking cvnts they are.

This also applies to their Norgie and Yank compatriots.

Pretty much every job up here is like herding kittens if you can't hand pick your team.

Edited by cashinmattress
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HOLA446

I cannot understand why firms cannot reduce salaries all across the board?! CNR did it successfully and so did Oceaneering I believe. Wouldn't that be more acceptable than culling heads?

Employees will understand the massive change in market conditions and saves management a lot of headache rather than asking people to walk the plank!

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HOLA447
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HOLA448
6 hours ago, shortbread said:

I cannot understand why firms cannot reduce salaries all across the board?! CNR did it successfully and so did Oceaneering I believe. Wouldn't that be more acceptable than culling heads?

Employees will understand the massive change in market conditions and saves management a lot of headache rather than asking people to walk the plank!

I'm sure most would prefer pay cuts to personnel cuts, but it's not always feasible to keep staffing numbers, as many companies, particularly those that are project based, do not have a large enough workload to sustain the number of people they had during the good times, when there was lots of projects on the go, lots of equipment being bought, and lots of services required. However, some companies are also freezing pay, with some even reducing it, unfortunately, as well as reducing headcount.

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HOLA449
On 24/11/2016 at 1:49 PM, reverand_cat said:

Aberdeen now has "black friday" sales on property...

http://banconhomes.com

Was £230k now... £185k for 65m²

Don't all go rushing at once tomorrow.

What f***ing idiot thought up this promotion?

Think how many customers that just bought they are going to p*** off. (Not that the prices won't go down anyway though but advertising it like this is stupid).

 

Surely people getting stung like this will make them think twice about these new builds?

how many customers that just bought

Ha Ha - how about NONE!!

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HOLA4410
3 hours ago, AD14 said:

I'm sure most would prefer pay cuts to personnel cuts, but it's not always feasible to keep staffing numbers, as many companies, particularly those that are project based, do not have a large enough workload to sustain the number of people they had during the good times, when there was lots of projects on the go, lots of equipment being bought, and lots of services required. However, some companies are also freezing pay, with some even reducing it, unfortunately, as well as reducing headcount.

The location of the companies main HQ will also play a part.  

Companies with a USA HQ (e.g. Halliburton, Schlumberger etc) generally get headcount reductions mandated down to them by HR in the USA with little or no input allowed from UK management/HR, irrespective of the impact on operations ("if there is an issue, we can handle any extra workload from the USA or UAE").

In my friends case, the UK operations were seen to be an easy hit for a number of reasons, including higher average base salary and a perceived better reception from the media and politicians back in the home country "USA first".  On plus side, the UK employees got a much more generous redundancy package that their US equivalents - but most of that extra money was thanks to European Employment Law.  

Bizarrely, the company did not mind the big layoff payoffs as they got a large tax benefit in the USA - bit like that story of Trump's losses being used to offset future profits.

Another factor that makes them layoff people without a whim is that one of the key metrics senior management performance in the USA is measured on is "revenue per head" - and they are measured on that on a monthly basis.  So, in times of falling revenue, the only way those managers can keep their jobs is to get rid of people as fast as possible - irrespective of the problems it causes in the future with loss of experience etc.

Nothing like a redundancy consultation process to make you aware of how cynical the whole oil industry is - just remember there is no such thing as company loyalty in these big multinationals!

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HOLA4411

Chevron had an absolutely "genius" idea when they first setup in Aberdeen, their HQ was designed primarily as a hotel complete with taxi rank, restaurant and hotel rooms that double as offices.

street view here:
https://goo.gl/maps/g51JjKDWzxT2

They get 10/10 for predicting the oil boom would turn into bust a good 30 years ahead of time, but quite who they think would want all those hotel rooms situated on an industrial estate in the middle of nowhere is beyond me.

and it's up for rent right now... (Chevron moved into a plush new building next door)

https://realla.co/commercial-property-details-to-rent/21ac9e80a22e418aa307a163d34dbc74

 

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HOLA4412
1 hour ago, Habeas Domus said:

Chevron had an absolutely "genius" idea when they first setup in Aberdeen, their HQ was designed primarily as a hotel complete with taxi rank, restaurant and hotel rooms that double as offices.

street view here:
https://goo.gl/maps/g51JjKDWzxT2

They get 10/10 for predicting the oil boom would turn into bust a good 30 years ahead of time, but quite who they think would want all those hotel rooms situated on an industrial estate in the middle of nowhere is beyond me.

and it's up for rent right now... (Chevron moved into a plush new building next door)

https://realla.co/commercial-property-details-to-rent/21ac9e80a22e418aa307a163d34dbc74

 

Yeah, some of the original oil buildings were designed to be utilised for other purposes once the oil ran out. I believe Shell's building at Tullos was also designed to double up as a hospital. Although I believe Chevron's original Aberdeen building, the one designed to function as a hotel if required, was up in Altens and is now Maersk House, occupied by Maersk Oil. The building is also in the shape of a Chevron.

But that said, the sustainability of the North Sea oil industry has continued to confound expectations. I think back in the '70s, they thought it would be done by 2000. If anything, it is a minor miracle that the industry could still support Aberdeen as one of the wealthiest and most prosperous areas of the country for much of the 2000s.

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HOLA4413

I am in contact with a solicitor regarding a property up for offers over 180k, two other more or less similar homes in the same street up for 192k with 200k on the home reports. Said I'd only be interested if the seller would take 140k. Let's see what happens.

Told to f$#k off more than likely......

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HOLA4414

I am in contact with a solicitor regarding a property up for offers over 180k, two other more or less similar homes in the same street up for 192k with 200k on the home reports. Said I'd only be interested if the seller would take 140k. Let's see what happens.

Told to f$#k off more than likely......

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HOLA4415

"The price the property is on at is the true valuation which reflects the current market.  Therefore our client would not be interested in taking an offer of £140,000."

That's that then! See how they feel once it's been up for 9 months like the others in the same street.... and the 4500 on ASPC...

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HOLA4416
1 hour ago, babo456 said:

"The price the property is on at is the true valuation which reflects the current market.  Therefore our client would not be interested in taking an offer of £140,000."

That's that then! See how they feel once it's been up for 9 months like the others in the same street.... and the 4500 on ASPC...

What are we talking here? Two bed? 60m²? Outskirts of Aberdeen?

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419
On 10/5/2016 at 0:28 AM, delboypass said:

Stick with it Babo.  I just paid 22% under valuation (valued in March 2016) for a property in Aberdeen after accepting a similarly low offer on my flat.  I was up-sizing so didn't mind.  I had been researching prices for about a year before I moved though so felt I had a pretty decent picture of what I believed to be a true valuation, rather than the figures picked from the air by the surveyors.

Not everyone's situation is the same though so it's just about finding the right deal/pragmatic seller.  They are out there though.

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HOLA4420
Just now, Aberdeen567 said:
On 10/5/2016 at 0:28 AM, delboypass said:

Stick with it Babo.  I just paid 22% under valuation (valued in March 2016) for a property in Aberdeen after accepting a similarly low offer on my flat.  I was up-sizing so didn't mind.  I had been researching prices for about a year before I moved though so felt I had a pretty decent picture of what I believed to be a true valuation, rather than the figures picked from the air by the surveyors.

Not everyone's situation is the same though so it's just about finding the right deal/pragmatic seller.  They are out there though.

Sorry not sure why it's quoting delboypass.  I couldn't delete his quotation marks in my comment.  Spot the newbie.

Just to make it clear the following statement is mine not his:

Stick with it Babo.  I just paid 22% under valuation (valued in March 2016) for a property in Aberdeen after accepting a similarly low offer on my flat.  I was up-sizing so didn't mind.  I had been researching prices for about a year before I moved though so felt I had a pretty decent picture of what I believed to be a true valuation, rather than the figures picked from the air by the surveyors.

Not everyone's situation is the same though so it's just about finding the right deal/pragmatic seller.  They are out there though.

 

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422

RoS numbers of October out. For Aberdeen City:

Average value: £202,739. Essentially the same as September. Down 8% YoY (although last October seems to have been an anomaly in that it was around £10k higher than the surrounding months). Between 2012-13 levels.

Sales volume: 325. Again sales volumes are depressed.

 

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HOLA4423
On ‎02‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 10:52 AM, AD14 said:

Sales volume: 325. Again sales volumes are depressed.

 

There does appear to be a lot more properties showing as under offer on ASPC in recent weeks.

Some sellers still holding out for higher prices - I have had offers on 2 properties rejected in the last month; both were circa 5% below valuations (valuations being in August and September) with both properties being marketed at offers over their valuation prices.  No counter offers back either, just flat out 'no'. 

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HOLA4424
1 hour ago, cautious said:

Some sellers still holding out for higher prices - I have had offers on 2 properties rejected in the last month; both were circa 5% below valuations (valuations being in August and September) with both properties being marketed at offers over their valuation prices.  No counter offers back either, just flat out 'no'. 

I think sentiment plays an important role in house prices, and the sentiment in Aberdeen has recently gotten better, especially with the OPEC production cut. Therefore it's not surprising that some sellers may continue to hold out for a higher price - or what they consider their property to be worth. And you can see on Rightmove that there are still some buyers will to pay what we on this forum would consider bubble prices for Aberdeen property, so you can't really blame a seller for at least trying to wait until they can get one of those buyers.

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HOLA4425
2 hours ago, AD14 said:

I think sentiment plays an important role in house prices, and the sentiment in Aberdeen has recently gotten better, especially with the OPEC production cut.

No cuts yet. OPEC has the cohesion of a herd of kittens. Ergo, don't hold your breath.

There are still job cuts slated & ongoing.

Big names are still slashing budgets by double digits.

M&A activity is increasing.

Some 'brands' are going to disappear altogether in Aberdeen & UK next year.

Increase of empty office & commercial space.

More and more (essential) maintenance deferred.

A culture of fear and ignorance everywhere in the patch.

Ballooning (speculative) DECOM figures figuring heavily in the prospectus calculations for punters.

Tory government (predictably) hanging an SNP government and their divisive politics & backers out to dry.

There are news articles talking about drilling, engineering, jobs etc... but this is about those currently in work, not growth.

2017 is going to make 2016 look like a bumper year. 2016 has been ticking along on projects penned years ago, not fully executed through lack of funds...plus a lot of really poor project management & engineering from EPC's

What sentiment?

yUpoWhW.jpg

What about the above graph drives this sentiment?

http://oilandgasuk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Oil-Gas-UK-Activity-Survey-2016.pdf

 

Edited by cashinmattress
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