cashinmattress Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 2. Need the CEngs to prove level of 'competency' to bid new work Not sure I agree with you there. That's EPC culture were talking about in the UK. Just some letters to slot you into the appropriate place in a big money making machine. It most definitely does NOT validate competency in a given field, but does show that you have conformed to the charter of that society at some point in time. Oh, and that you have paid for the privilege. The big one is the CV with portfolio and evidence, followed by your degree distinction if you have it. Then all that other fluff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Not sure I agree with you there. That's EPC culture were talking about in the UK. Just some letters to slot you into the appropriate place in a big money making machine. It most definitely does NOT validate competency in a given field, but does show that you have conformed to the charter of that society at some point in time. Oh, and that you have paid for the privilege. The big one is the CV with portfolio and evidence, followed by your degree distinction if you have it. Then all that other fluff. It's not just limited to EPC. I've had it in the other fields and in the small organisations I worked for. I gained mine long before entering O&G. Having come through it myself in the non standard way (I didn't do school, uni, accredited training program then automatic registration) I had to fight tooth and nail to achieve it. As I said before. If someone is going to offer me stupid money for doing what they want me to do. I smile sweetly, nod when asked and TOTM. ( Think Of The Money). Rightly or wrongly, professional accreditation, in whatever form is used to judge level in ones field. During bid work companies generally don't field all that information to potential clients. normally organigrams highlighting key people (and degrees and registration (s)). ''The big one is the CV with portfolio and evidence, followed by your degree distinction if you have it'' This in my experience is normally reserved for candidates for job applications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fumbles3 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Over the last 18 months or so i have had a dozen or more leave to the O+G industry. As of now the vast majority are now out of work or in work onshore(non-O+G) at vastly reduced salary. Sad really but like flies to the flame they couldn't resist the `Big money`, and wouldn't hear of anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/23/aberdeen-once-rich-oil-city-now-relying-on-food-banks Saturday 23 January 2016 07.00 GMT Dave Simmers, who leads the Aberdeen Food Banks partnership, said demand for free access had soared in a city which is so dependent on oil and gas. “The number of food parcels delivered in 2015 was double the number in 2014 and we are seeing increases all the time. People can be used to earning good money in the oil industry but when the pay checks stop the problems start,” Simmers added. “We had a man draw up in a Porsche outside and come in here. His house was going to be repossessed and the car was on credit and going to be handed back. Whoever you are, you can be two or three wage slips away from a hole.” http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/23/aberdeen-once-rich-oil-city-now-relying-on-food-banks Hmmm, welcome to the market. What a nonsense that is. "Begin the bailout, victim of media, didn't know what he was doing, could only expect boom" etc etc as per 2007-2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Saturday 23 January 2016 07.00 GMT Hmmm, welcome to the market. What a nonsense that is. "Begin the bailout, victim of media, didn't know what he was doing, could only expect boom" etc etc as per 2007-2010. Repossessions coming... This is how it begins. Crash is coming now. They have 2000 unsold properties from last year (as per Evening Express report) and it seems they are about to have repossessions come in (heard in another report someone else was losing their property in February) seems those with savings are beginning to run out. BTL / second properties tax changes in April too, so there will be less demand for that. Also more new properties are just coming online. Seems 30% down by summer could be a possibility... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I remember a couple of pages back someone was waiting out for "what their property was worth". I'd advise them to exit NOW with a reasonable offer. The tide is changing quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Repossessions coming... This is how it begins. Crash is coming now. They have 2000 unsold properties from last year (as per Evening Express report) and it seems they are about to have repossessions come in (heard in another report someone else was losing their property in February) seems those with savings are beginning to run out. BTL / second properties tax changes in April too, so there will be less demand for that. Also more new properties are just coming online. Seems 30% down by summer could be a possibility... Talk to the old timers, and farmers. They know the score. So many folk working in O&G are so completely incapable of looking forward more than the duration of whatever project they're on. The irrational behavior experienced in Aberdeen/Shire is exactly that of any other bubble market. Can't say they haven't been warned. But its hard to speak when somebody keeps sticking rolls of £20 bob notes in your gob; ie: big wage packets for the last decade. ...pull out the old favourites... 2007/2008 --> New Paradigm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Where would you stick the current situation on that chart, greed or delusion phase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 2007/2008 New paradigm. 2012-2014 Return to normal. 2014-??? Fear? I suppose? I think its becoming clear to most in the city/shire that the party is over. While the first the chart is a hypothetical behavior model, the second isn't hypothetical, its a consensus across industry based on heavy research. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Also in the same article??? For example, while 70% of respondents said they were experiencing difficulties to recruit, it seems the scale of the shortage is less pronounced than 12-18 months ago, and is limited to specific areas such as Technical Safety, Drilling Engineering, Geosciences and Business support services. Trouble recruiting? I know ABZ people in all the disciplines as indicated above who've been let go. Some deemed good, others not so. So I'm bemused by the recruitment difficulty statement. Sounds like lip service. I myself, classed as an O&G discipline engineer, was one of the few Chartered bods (albeit contract). I along with a few other chartered engineers in the same discipline as me were let go by an EPC This confuses me as 1. They need a set amount of CEngs to accredit the graduate training program, 2. Need the CEngs to prove level of 'competency' to bid new work and 3. Need CEngs to mentor the aforementioned graduates. We were let go. No reshuffle, or deadwood clearance etc. We all found positions. I myself renewed my passport and work abroad. Others not so qualified/certified weren't so lucky. Have a funny anecdote about a large manufacturer of equipment from Sweden whose letters are similar to a popular group ABBA. I was interviewed for a temporary position. 3 months. I was turned down as I was too qualified. They openly admitted they went for the lesser experienced candidate. ?????? I have vowed never to purchase or slow to be purchased any equipment from them. Is the whole organisation full of under qualified / under experienced halfwits??? ABZ is toast for numerous things and attitudes like these. Where did you find work abroad? You still in oil and is it better than Aberdeen? Most the people i know still in Aberdeen are all wanting to leave even though have jobs. The winters, cold and darkness just isnt good for family life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Saturday 23 January 2016 07.00 GMT Hmmm, welcome to the market. What a nonsense that is. "Begin the bailout, victim of media, didn't know what he was doing, could only expect boom" etc etc as per 2007-2010. This is the problem with Socialism.. If you give something for free, eventually everyone will want it. This is why socialism always collapses as there are always a few working for those to sit on your back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfr Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Where did you find work abroad? You still in oil and is it better than Aberdeen? Most the people i know still in Aberdeen are all wanting to leave even though have jobs. The winters, cold and darkness just isnt good for family life. I ended up in Russia. It was the best deal offered. Most of the things on the table were for abroad. Puerto Rico was one, also Africa another. I'd worked a lot abroad before O&G so it was a return to my 'old days'! (I'm actually a PLC Programmer). But as Cashinmstress says. A lot of the guys in ABZ no nothing other than EPC type stuff. Nothing to fall back on, or instantly transferable skills in 'the real world'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Some news, global perspective included. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Frustrating-Future-For-North-Sea-Oil.html Across the North Sea, operating costs are expected to drop some 22 percent by the end of 2016. http://www.epmag.com/still-falling-offshore-spending-could-drop-25-835396 Lower day rates along with reduced services and subsea costs, could push offshore spending down by 20% to25% in 2016, Barclays said in its global E&P spending outlook. This follows an estimated 16% spending decline in 2015. http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/01/api-fourth-quarter-us-completions-down-51.html Fourth-quarter US completions down 51% US oil and gas well completions in the fourth quarter of 2015 fell 51% from the total of the comparable quarter a year earlier, reports American Petroleum Institute. Estimated development oil well completions were down 55%, and development gas well completions, down 37%. For 2015 relative to 2014 levels, total well completions were down 35%. Oil well completions were down 37%, and gas well completions, down 28%. Total footage drilled was down 27% in 2015. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-24/-no-crisis-norway-holds-talks-on-economic-cost-of-oil-s-plunge ‘No Crisis’ Norway Holds Talks on Economic Cost of Oil's Plunge Norway’s prime minister, finance minister and central bank governor are holding an extraordinary meeting to assess just how bad the deepening plunge in the price of oil will be for the overall economy of western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer. http://www.iol.co.za/business/opinion/oil-titans-are-losing-their-safety-nets-1974590 Refining profits that buttressed earnings for Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell as crude prices plunged are now slumping, further pressuring all of the world’s biggest oil companies as they move into 2016.Global refining margins, the estimated profit from turning oil into gasoline and diesel, fell 34 percent in the fourth quarter, the steepest decline in eight years, to $13.20 a barrel, data on BP’s website show. http://www.oilandgasnewsworldwide.com/Article/40570/Saudi_to_invest_$100bn_in_renewable_energy Saudi to invest $100bn in renewable energy More than $100 billion in Saudi renewable energy projects will help meet its skyrocketing energy demand and diversify its energy sector, industry experts said ahead of the upcoming World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, UAE. http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=142633 The decline in the price of crude oil threatens to bring about the cancellation of many energy projects around the world. In regions where labor is expensive and oil exists in harsh conditions, such as the North Sea, around a third of currently-producing fields are uncommercial below $50 per barrel let alone at the current price of around $30 per barrel. http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1421966/tide-turns-for-offshore-vessel-players-in-brazil Once considered a safe haven for international contractors looking to secure long-term charters for their offshore support vessels, Brazil has taken a sharp U-turn in the past six months, with Petrobras drastically reducing investments and being forced to prioritise domestic tonnage over foreign-flagged units. http://www.worldoil.com/news/2016/01/22/eni-terminates-ocean-rig-drillship-contract-on-oil-slump Ocean Rig, a provider of offshore deepwater drilling services, has seen the contract for one of its drillships terminated. The drilling contractor said Thursday that “due to the dramatic fall of the crude oil price and the volatile market context, ENI has reassessed its drilling activities and taken the decision to exercise its right of terminating” the contract for the Ocean Rig Olympia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I ended up in Russia. It was the best deal offered. Most of the things on the table were for abroad. Puerto Rico was one, also Africa another. I'd worked a lot abroad before O&G so it was a return to my 'old days'! (I'm actually a PLC Programmer). But as Cashinmstress says. A lot of the guys in ABZ no nothing other than EPC type stuff. Nothing to fall back on, or instantly transferable skills in 'the real world'. Good offers.. Puerto Rico i think i might have gone for Like a holiday and working Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Talk to the old timers, and farmers. They know the score. So many folk working in O&G are so completely incapable of looking forward more than the duration of whatever project they're on. The irrational behavior experienced in Aberdeen/Shire is exactly that of any other bubble market. Can't say they haven't been warned. But its hard to speak when somebody keeps sticking rolls of £20 bob notes in your gob; ie: big wage packets for the last decade. ...pull out the old favourites... 2007/2008 --> New Paradigm I've updated that graph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Property news: https://www.emoov.co.uk/news/2016/01/21/property-hotspots-2015-yoy-biggest-fallers/ eMoov Property Hotspots Index – Years Biggest Fallers However, this increase wasn’t enjoyed everywhere. Parts of Scotland, particularly Aberdeen, saw housing demand plummet by -31% over the past year. It appears that the ongoing decline of oil prices has hit the Aberdeen economy hard, resulting in a knock on effect to property demand. Can't sell, won't sell. Scuppered. Just wait a few more quarters. http://scottishfinancialreview.com/index.php/2016/01/22/edinburgh-rents-overtake-aberdeen/ Edinburgh Rents Overtake Aberdeen Edinburgh has overtaken Aberdeen as the most expensive Scottish city in which to rent a property, with the capital’s average monthly let rising 5.7% over the past year to £951. Average rents in Aberdeen have fallen 15.9% to £934 a month over the last year as the slump in oil prices continues to hammer the local economy. Investment money will follow the rents. Industry news: http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/6961/hyundai-heavy-shutting-rig-construction-yard-due-to-lack-of-orders/ Hyundai Heavy Shutting Rig Construction Yard Due to Lack of Orders Anecdotal: taxi's are getting thrashed, particularly the airport runners who pay £145/week to council, and have seen the numbers drop to 1/3 of what they were in Q3 2015. Also, the deregulation of the taxi driver business. Going to see a lot less fancy taxi's in Aberdeen from here on in, and probably a lot less taxi's in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Anecdotal: taxi's are getting thrashed, particularly the airport runners who pay £145/week to council, and have seen the numbers drop to 1/3 of what they were in Q3 2015. Also, the deregulation of the taxi driver business. Going to see a lot less fancy taxi's in Aberdeen from here on in, and probably a lot less taxi's in general. From my seat aboard the 727 bus, I have noticed the queue of taxis waiting for fares at the airport grow steadily longer over the last few months. I was speaking to a former taxi driver last week who described it as "a mug's game these days". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Property news: https://www.emoov.co.uk/news/2016/01/21/property-hotspots-2015-yoy-biggest-fallers/ Can't sell, won't sell. Scuppered. Just wait a few more quarters. http://scottishfinancialreview.com/index.php/2016/01/22/edinburgh-rents-overtake-aberdeen/ Investment money will follow the rents. Industry news: http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/6961/hyundai-heavy-shutting-rig-construction-yard-due-to-lack-of-orders/ Anecdotal: taxi's are getting thrashed, particularly the airport runners who pay £145/week to council, and have seen the numbers drop to 1/3 of what they were in Q3 2015. Also, the deregulation of the taxi driver business. Going to see a lot less fancy taxi's in Aberdeen from here on in, and probably a lot less taxi's in general. Council taxing taxis....how pays that ? Another hidden tax. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Council taxing taxis....how pays that ? Another hidden tax. I think its council, or to airport, but you have to pay to get that run. But I know it costs about £7k a year to be authorized to take traffic out of the airport. Perhaps its absorbed in the stupid £1 cost for passing the barrier. Dunno, I know a few drivers but have not gone into great detail. Further on Aberdeen, the city is at the bottom of the list in the UK for property demand according to: http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/highest-climbers-revealed-in-property-hotspots-index.html Which means that the influx of money is in full swing to other pastures, wouldn't you say? Bring the crash? Buy the dips they say, but when is that? I'm leaning towards numbers put here by CCC, but not to -50% yet. Perhaps high -30% range in the next year or two, but I guess that depends on how long people can hold out financially with no jobs, salary cuts for those in jobs, and to NO revision to the mean circa decade of mad inflation 2004-2014. All that is relegated to the history books. We shall see if this Keynes quote holds true for the property market up here: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." A heck of a lot of people in Aberdeen/Shire are going to experience negative equity. A bunch more are going to have completely unsalable houses in those areas affected by flooding. Will the banks start calling in the heavies due to broken covenants? Anybody BTL'ing or who has bought in using low deposit schemes, or worse with the 100% mortgage, is going to be completely fecked. Really is doomsday stuff if you subscribe to cult of property. Edited January 25, 2016 by cashinmattress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Council taxing taxis....how pays that ? Another hidden tax. Special license so only approved taxis/firms can pick up from the airport...limits the number of taxis available at airport to reduce competition. If you pre-book a taxi without license, you have to walk out of airport and try and get a dodgy pickup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluteroop Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Special license so only approved taxis/firms can pick up from the airport...limits the number of taxis available at airport to reduce competition. If you pre-book a taxi without license, you have to walk out of airport and try and get a dodgy pickup Edinburgh is one big cabal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluteroop Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Edinburgh is one big cabal Aberdeen too of course. All the inter-connected little markups that not only disappear as nice little earners, disappear as earners period. Hard to take for any service provider... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Theres still no lack of overpaid clowns in Aberdeen..... https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/813643/newly-wed-oil-worker-lose-job-attacking-wife-wedding-reception/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Theres still no lack of overpaid clowns in Aberdeen..... https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/813643/newly-wed-oil-worker-lose-job-attacking-wife-wedding-reception/ Looks like the mother in law demanding a party when the two of them were happy to do it all by themselves in secret. Guy was clearly a bit of a dick - but pretty obvious this is yet another incident started by a burd. Shock horror !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Theres still no lack of overpaid clowns in Aberdeen..... https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/813643/newly-wed-oil-worker-lose-job-attacking-wife-wedding-reception/ [/rant] That lassie will regret that marriage, that dress, and particularly that awful hair up. Her hairdresser needs their blow dryer and brush taken away! Why do grown women insist on wearing a fake tiara on a wedding? They are not princesses despite being told they are by their moms from a young age. And then there is the family matter. Why do people invite friends and relatives who tend towards talking with their fists after having a few drinks? [/endrant] Back on topic. So, a lot of folk will be reapplying for their jobs, taking new (reduced) benefits packages & terms, or facing the boot. Not like its a surprise... http://www.scotsman.com/news/oil-downturn-tipped-to-fuel-more-m-a-activity-1-4010617 The slide in oil prices and a desire to seize overseas market share will drive a “surge” in mergers and acquisitions this year, according to a new study. Law firm Pinsent Masons said its survey of 200 senior executives from across the oilfield services industry revealed that 70 per cent were actively considering an acquisition within the next year. With Shell/BG being the most obvious test case. Let's see how things proceed from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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