Northern Ireland

[Rock-n-Roll1]

I’m sure all of this has been discussed before so I apologise to anyone who is well and truly bored with the subject, however has anyone any updated views on PPS 14 and building in the countryside? I know that there was a legal challenge to the policy statement which was judged “unlawful” by Mr. Justice Gillen on 7 September 2007. Arlene Foster Minister of the Environment N.Ireland subsequently released a statement on the 25th of October 2007 where she decided to “reissue the policy provisions of draft PPS14 and to continue to apply them to planning applications received after 16 March 2006 until we have completed our review and developed new policies. I will publish a new draft PPS14 within six months and this will be followed by a period of consultation”. As this review was to take 6 months, she should in a position to publish her findings by April / May of this year. Does the forum have any views or information on the likely decision? Are the rules likely to remain as outlined in PPS 14? I know that many of the political parties promised to challenge PPS 14 in the assembly. When is such a debate likely to be tabled, and what are the likely outcomes? Are the assembly likely to keep PPS 14 largely unchanged or are they likely to open up the planning once again? What does the forum think about the existing value of individual building sites in the countryside? Are thy likely to hold up or do the forum see them falling like the rest of the market. Obviously our very slow, bureaucratic and inefficient planning service has been partly to blame for massive inflation in this particular sub-market. I presume it all falls back to basic supply and demand rule of economics. In know that supply has been cut off by the current planning laws (for now), however is the demand still there in light of the current cooling in the property market, now the feeding frenzy and panic buying has left the market?

hi mephisto

when did the DOE + planners ever get anything done on time

so wouldnt be holding my breath

from what i hear

no big changes

slight easing for farmers family applications

but no going back to the good old days

if you are thinking of speculating

now could be a very good time

lots on the market because if most farmers sell before end of March

they will face a considerably smaller CGT bill than from April onwards

also planning time limit will start to run out shortly on most of them

so a cheeky wee offer may well be accepted by some

3-4 years down the line that nice little plot in the country

will be as common as a farmer telling you that he is

"making a few quid!"http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/style_images/1/folder_post_icons/icon8.gif

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/sty...icons/icon8.gif

possibly we will end up like England

where every aul pigsty has become a highly prized barn conversionhttp://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/style_images/1/folder_post_icons/icon13.gif

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/sty...cons/icon13.gif

[Sour Mash]

No probs, thanks..

I must admit my post maybe sounded a bit negative, but I wanted to point out the issues to be aware of.

City Centre living does have many advantages - it is great not being stuck in a traffic queue waiting to get into/out of the odyssey or waterfront at a concert. You can just walk past the taxi queues at the end of the night, nip home in a few minutes, stick the kettle on and chill while everyone else is trying to get a lift home. You can chill out on Fri/Sat nite then nip out for a short while if you please without all the organizing of taxis, then nip home when you realize you haven't missed much a bit later but still feel you've been out for a while.

Yes - it's just that small city-centre flats are not for everyone yet there have been large numbers of them built (compared to new houses). If you are a young single professional then they can be an attractive place to live. However, the real demand is for quality houses.

As such, much of the value of flats is based on BTL demand or price-flipper speculation rather than owner occupier demand. You seem them rocket in price during housing booms and plunge in price the fastest during slumps. The rapid appreciation of (city centre) flats in a boom leads to a lot of shoddy building and poorly though out developments.

Personally, while I wouldn't mind living in a nice city centre flat I would be very reluctant to buy one except as a speculative punt if I thought there was about to be a bubble.

[Vespasian]

I was just thinking about the effect this boom will have on NI society

There must be a sizeable group of FTBs who did buy at or near the height of the boom, paying a vast sum of money. Bearing in mind that there was very lttle available sub 150k, many will have bought small 1-2 bedroom flats stretching themselves to the max on 6-8x salary multiples.

Assuming that prices fall in real terms by 50%, many of these people will be caught in a huge amount of negative equity. I know many will argue that you should do your research before buying etc. and that prices can go down as well as up. The simple fact remains that someone in their early 20s earning 15 - 20k may not be as wise as King Solomon. People want somewhere to live and will just shrug their shoulders and pay the going rate, while being egged on by an EA with specuflippers breathing down their necks.

This will undoubtedly create a group trapped in NE, but 5 years down the line trapped in their 1 bed flat worth 90k, how can they move on??? People will want to move, trade up and have families. How is this possible trapped in a tiny apartment. Parents won't be able to bail them out as all the equity in property will have disappeared preventing MEW.

Should government intervene in certain cases? Should there be controls on house prices? Should debt be written off? I don't like the idea of people trapped unable to start a family

Personally, I think government should use HPI instead of RPI and CPI as the measure of inflation to prevent this social disaster from ever happening again.

Edited January 14, 2008 by Vespasian

[ravedave]

The simple fact remains that someone in their early 20s earning 15 - 20k may not be as wise as King Solomon. People want somewhere to live and will just shrug their shoulders and pay the going rate, while being egged on by an EA with specuflippers breathing down their necks.

This nearly caught me out - luckily I was gazumped by an eager bidder just before completion...

A lot of people like myself just decided it was time to buy and went out to the market and paid the going rate. To some people a property is just a place to live, they don't think about the economics of it all apart from whether the repayments are acceptable at that time.

[azogar]

Assuming that prices fall in real terms by 50%, many of these people will be caught in a huge amount of negative equity. I know many will argue that you should do your research before buying etc. and that prices can go down as well as up. The simple fact remains that someone in their early 20s earning 15 - 20k may not be as wise as King Solomon. People want somewhere to live and will just shrug their shoulders and pay the going rate, while being egged on by an EA with specuflippers breathing down their necks.

I know a young couple who bought at the height of last summer's madness - they truly believed that HPs would continue to rise (albeit I did offer a contrarian view).

My heart goes out to them and all the other young FTB's (who bought in 07) that believed they had to get on the ladder before it was too late.

Financial Education is a must for all teenagers IMHO; and maybe this will be a consequence of a possible downturn here - kids are taught at school about APR, Neg equity, multiple income ratios etc and huge financial commitments that you might carry for years.

I have kids here and IMO, if they cannot afford to buy a house etc in NI when they need to, they will simply travel across the water or go further afield.

Bankruptcy is an option and can offer a fresh start - with financially restrictive difficulties of course

Edited January 14, 2008 by prophet-profit

[sdoey]

The simple fact remains that someone in their early 20s earning 15 - 20k

Dont know to many people in their early 20's earning up to 20k

[subby]

Dont know to many people in their early 20's earning up to 20k

I was 29 before I got to 20k a year. N.Ireland doesn't have good salaries, just look at accounts jobs all 16k there or there abouts. 20k you're looking public sector

....which strangely enough is where I'm at now

Edited January 14, 2008 by subby

[talksalot81]

Financial Education is a must for all teenagers IMHO

IMHO, a bit of common sense and ability to work upon ones own initiative is all that is needed. The problem that most of these people have had is that they have just taken the word of others. They neither had the sense to doubt it nor the slightest idea how they would go about finding out for themselves. In reality, the analysis should be simple enough for someone with any level of secondary mathematics. If you know some very basic algebra, that should suffice. The problem is the inability to apply it.

[azogar]

if you know some very basic algebra, that should suffice. The problem is the inability to apply it.

spoken like a true physicist

Edited January 14, 2008 by prophet-profit

[talksalot81]

spoken like a true physicist

Well if I were to suggest that, whilst I find it trivial, I would not expect it to be so for most other, I would be flamed terribly for having my head up my bottom!

[Vespasian]

Dont know to many people in their early 20's earning up to 20k

I know, the figures didn't work for 10-15k. How could you have afforded anything even on 8x salary?

[WasSeller (ex-WouldBe)]

Dont know to many people in their early 20's earning up to 20k

Lot of people in early 20s earning about 17/18k in IT - and I know a call centre TL in mid-twenties who's earning more now than she used to a couple of years back - 18k in Halifax. No idea what % of that age group are in similar positions, but IT industry must be a sizeable part here in Belfast.

(edited cos had left out half a second. Head cold. )

Edited January 14, 2008 by WouldbeSeller

[WasSeller (ex-WouldBe)]

Financial Education is a must for all teenagers IMHO; and maybe this will be a consequence of a possible downturn here - kids are taught at school about APR, Neg equity, multiple income ratios etc and huge financial commitments that you might carry for years.

I was asking my mum about this a few months back (she's a teacher) and she said it's already been added into the curriculum - can't remember what it's called - Life Skills or something like that, but it is now part of the curriculum. About time alright! A legal requirement to call credit cards 'debt cards' and 'interest-free credit' 'interest-free debt' wouldn't go amiss either. If cigarettes can carry a health warning, why can't debt?

[sdoey]

Lot of people in early 20s earning about 17/18k in IT - and I know a call centre TL in mid-twenties who's earning more now than 18k in Halifax. No idea what % of that age group are in similar positions, but IT industry must be a sizeable part here in Belfast.

Sorry, mate call centres dont pay that amount (ie a certain one up in stoke city paying 9-10k)

I work in IT and most university graduates dont even start on 17/18K! NI is a low paid economy FACT!

IT jobs in the public sector and private are very low paid, especially for young folk starting a career in that sector, I would say their awarded a salary of between 10-14K at most ! Ive been there and got the t-shirt to prove it!! It takes a few years working in that sector to get anywhere near 20K!!

Companies here have a dont want to pay mentality!! endof

[WasSeller (ex-WouldBe)]

Sorry, mate call centres dont pay that amount (ie a certain one up in stoke city paying 9-10k)

I work in IT and most university graduates dont even start on 17/18K! NI is a low paid economy FACT!

IT jobs in the public sector and private are very low paid, especially for young folk starting a career in that sector, I would say their awarded a salary of between 10-14K at most ! Ive been there and got the t-shirt to prove it!! It takes a few years working in that sector to get anywhere near 20K!!

Companies here have a dont want to pay mentality!! endof

I didn't say starting salary - I worked in IT myself for over 7 years. Started on 12, aged 20, and went up to 17 after 3 years. And there were a lot of people my age working with me earning more because they were IT graduates - I wasn't.

Also, it was just today I had that conversation with my friend who's a call centre TL - she said she'd have to take a pay cut to become a teacher, and the 18k was mentioned.

As I say, not speaking for the economy as a whole - or for public sector, I worked in IT in private sector - just giving info. on my own experience.

Edited January 14, 2008 by WouldbeSeller

[YoungFTB]

I also definitely feel that legislation needs implemented to regulate the Managing Agent industry to lay down guidlines re finances etc - a major player, DMS went bust in 2005 and likely left apartment owners out of pocket and bills unpaid for which I believe they had to stump up again. Not allegedly - fact, see link below... I believe that a blocks finances should not be held in a 'pooled account', operated by the Managing Agent for running the finances for many blocks, but each into a designated account for the Management Company pertaining to each specific block. This safeguards finances for each block in the event of the Managing Agent encountering financial difficulties, and also ensures that one blocks owners are not potentially 'crossfunding' or 'subsidizing' another block whose owners are may be less reliable payers of their Mngt Charge. In a 'pooled a/c' there is the risk that funds deposited by one set of owners in the short term pays the bills of a different block until others sets of owners pays their Mngt charge - what if they dont? - the merry-go-round financing could potentially become unstuck with serious ramifications - allegedly. Unfortunately I have not been able to find out any more info since the publication of the article - maybe others on this forum might..

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/imported/article982843.ece

Ask the Managing Agent if purchasing if theirs is a 'pooled a/c' or if blocks managed have designated accounts - you could get your conveyancing solicitor to ask for you, he/she would have more clout - oh, and definitely get them to check that the apartment has no debts of Management Charge on it - some owners try and move on without paying any Management Charge outstanding. If your solicitor doesn't perform the 'searches' on the property to check this, you get could get saddled with the debt

I didn't know any of this info about problems with management companies, very good to know.

From everything I have read in this entire thread, it does sound like city center apartments in Belfast are for renting only.

If you have a bad experience then you can leave after 6 months, if you own one then that is a different matter. I'm going to stick to looking for a house, sounds like a LOT less hassle.

Unless you're looking at lisburn rd, you wont find many townhouses in belfast city centre, as it is really just apartments.

There are quite a few areas actually

Botanic Avenue

Cromwell Road

Hollyland area

Stranmillis Area (Beside Botanic Gardens)

University Road Area

These are just a few and there are many more that are very close to the center of Belfast. Even after a crash, I'm sure most will be out of my price range sadly.

I noticed you use the American English spelling "center" as opposed to the British English spelling "centre".

LOL ok I see I'm just not a good speller

IMHO, a bit of common sense and ability to work upon ones own initiative is all that is needed. The problem that most of these people have had is that they have just taken the word of others. They neither had the sense to doubt it nor the slightest idea how they would go about finding out for themselves. In reality, the analysis should be simple enough for someone with any level of secondary mathematics. If you know some very basic algebra, that should suffice. The problem is the inability to apply it.

That's the problem with society now, very few people actually think for themselves.

[HPCwhen?]

Personally, I think government should use HPI instead of RPI and CPI as the measure of inflation to prevent this social disaster from ever happening again.

Couldn't agree with you more. I'd love to know what account is actually taken of mortgage repayments in the inflation figures? Actually, i'd love to know what account is taken of prices generally! If inflation figures reflected the actual cost of buying a home and servicing a mortgage they would be off the scale!

Does anyone else get the sense that we're all deluding ourselves over our so-called wealth? Slave harder to make the repayments on a massive mortage that those on an interest only mortgage may never own! Indentured labour anyone?

[azogar]

For those here (including me) trying to get their heads around the 'credit crunch' and the linkage to the sub-prime mess, this is an excellent read I found on a site that doccyboy and pod frequent

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hale-stewart...eg_b_81264.html

I won't clog up this thread with the text - but recommend everyone to give this a read when they have a spare 10 minutes

[Jacko79]

Dont worry guys, the housing market in Northern Ireland is set to surge in 2008!

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...icle3339606.ece

[talksalot81]

Ulster's housing sales 'to surge' this year surge means 'not to crash too badly', doesnt it?

I believe House sales in Northern Ireland are set to increase this year - confounding predictions of a slump made by the experts(Pah, I know better than they do).

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says there will be a resurgence in the province's housing market with property transactions set to rise but I am not going to give anymore information and hopefully nobody will ask any questions.

And this is welcome news for greedy beleaguered sellers who have witnessed a market dominated by price slashing and 'gazundering.'

Gazundering is the practice were a buyer agrees a price only to drop it before contracts are exchanged and has been rife in the past seven months.

In some cases properties were withdrawn from the market as buyers were offering less than the asking price, like how ridiculous is that!?- a total turnaround from the bidding wars and spiralling prices of 2006.

Some properties fell in price by up to £20,000 on their value at the peak of the house price boom in January 2007 though I just pulled that month out of my hat and it probably is wrong.

Average prices in Northern Ireland fell by 0.2% during the last three months of 2007, according to Nationwide, which led the lender to predict a 4% fall in prices over the coming year.

However, RICS now predicts the market will remain buoyant, possibly in a private correspondence with myself - with average prices expected to return to an upward trend in the next 12 months.

The province enjoyed the highest annual house price growth in the UK during 2007, at 24.2% - or £120 a day.

"Northern Ireland experienced massive house price growth in 2006 and 2007 driven by a perceived lack of supply, a burgeoning economy and investor enthusiasm," said Mr Tom McClelland, housing spokesperson for RICS Northern Ireland.

"House prices grew rapidly from a low base, supported by increasing confidence in a society more at peace with itself and a strong jobs market."

While growth is not expected to match the levels seen over the last two years, transactions will increase and the market will remain strong, according to RICS.

"The market changed considerably during the course of 2007 and the new reality is a market where agents have to work harder to achieve sales and sellers have to be more realistic about asking prices," added Mr McClelland.

He said: "We anticipate that transaction numbers will increase in the first half of 2008, supported by the recent interest rate cut and potential cuts in the coming months."

Didn’t I do well in making selective quotations which mis…sorry, lead the reader into my line of thought?! Indeed, a slowing of the market could prove beneficial to some groups.

"Ultimately first-time buyers could benefit from the change in the market. With investor activity having declined, there is less competition for properties in the sector of the market within the first-time buyer's budget."

And industry sources are still predicting interest rate drops for later in the year, despite the Bank of England freezing the base rate at 5.5% last week. Oh yes, I forget to mention the credit crunch which some people wrongly assume will stop first time buyers from getting the large multiple loans necessary to get onto the current ladder. In fact, NI is such a strong market that credit will be increasingly easy to obtain since our economy is widely accepted as one of the strongest in the world.

[maxdiver]

Gold board is ahead of us again - grrr...

Never fear Helen Carson is back with enough fodder to fill pages and pages on this board.

Also this report only says that the number of houses being sold will increase - nothing else.

That much is probably for sure - but when they do - houses will be revalued - no more celestrial prices.

They still think that people should be buying though - funny that.

But i reckon that all the dogs in the street are saying otherwise.

[talksalot81]

Is not it obvious that the number of sales will increase?! Lets face it, you cant have less than no sales!

As I posted on MSE, this article is typical Bull matter. They have told us for so long that prices cannot fall as a result of undersupply. Now we are being told that oversupply is another good fundamental that will stop prices falling. If these people were scientists, they would be the crackpots trying to convince us of their perpetual motion machines.

[azogar]

Gold board is ahead of us again - grrr...

Hey they may have the longest thread (again), but we now have our own mini-sub forum!!!!

cushty

[YoungFTB]

Yes, people should go in with their eyes open when purchasing a property, not just apartments, but any house whether for investment or O/O. The Managing Agent issue is important, so finances are transparent. I ensured the finances relating to the block I live in were held into a designated bank a/c so owners could closely monitor them. I do thnk Apt life is good though you just have to be careful and not rush in - though that should be the case with any property purchase. During the mad stampede of the last couple of years, peoples prudence and careful checking went out the window....

I think you're right, research is the key

Ok, yes, you are right re townhouse in the places you mention, but I wouldn't have described them as City Centre.. Also, a cautionary note about the Holylands - there is a letter in the Belfast Telegraph nearly every few weeks from residents who live there complaining about the antics of students and residents of HMO's antics, eg parties, destruction of property, vandalism etc so I would be careful about buying there....

Oh I agree, I would not want to live in the Holylands. It must have as many, if not more renters than some apartment blocks in the center of Belfast.

Dont worry guys, the housing market in Northern Ireland is set to surge in 2008!

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...icle3339606.ece

He said: "We anticipate that transaction numbers will increase in the first half of 2008, supported by the recent interest rate cut and potential cuts in the coming months."

Well F*ck me! I didn't know it was that simple!

Lower interest rates = more buyers

I suppose the fact that we now have a credit crunch and banks are being very careful who they lend to now does not matter!

Is not it obvious that the number of sales will increase?! Lets face it, you cant have less than no sales!

ROFL!! SO very true!

[tara747]

Ulster's housing sales 'to surge' this year surge means 'not to crash too badly', doesnt it?

I believe House sales in Northern Ireland are set to increase this year - confounding predictions of a slump made by the experts(Pah, I know better than they do).

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says there will be a resurgence in the province's housing market with property transactions set to rise but I am not going to give anymore information and hopefully nobody will ask any questions.

And this is welcome news for greedy beleaguered sellers who have witnessed a market dominated by price slashing and 'gazundering.'

Gazundering is the practice were a buyer agrees a price only to drop it before contracts are exchanged and has been rife in the past seven months.

In some cases properties were withdrawn from the market as buyers were offering less than the asking price, like how ridiculous is that!?- a total turnaround from the bidding wars and spiralling prices of 2006.

Some properties fell in price by up to £20,000 on their value at the peak of the house price boom in January 2007 though I just pulled that month out of my hat and it probably is wrong.

Average prices in Northern Ireland fell by 0.2% during the last three months of 2007, according to Nationwide, which led the lender to predict a 4% fall in prices over the coming year.

However, RICS now predicts the market will remain buoyant, possibly in a private correspondence with myself - with average prices expected to return to an upward trend in the next 12 months.

The province enjoyed the highest annual house price growth in the UK during 2007, at 24.2% - or £120 a day.

"Northern Ireland experienced massive house price growth in 2006 and 2007 driven by a perceived lack of supply, a burgeoning economy and investor enthusiasm," said Mr Tom McClelland, housing spokesperson for RICS Northern Ireland.

"House prices grew rapidly from a low base, supported by increasing confidence in a society more at peace with itself and a strong jobs market."

While growth is not expected to match the levels seen over the last two years, transactions will increase and the market will remain strong, according to RICS.

"The market changed considerably during the course of 2007 and the new reality is a market where agents have to work harder to achieve sales and sellers have to be more realistic about asking prices," added Mr McClelland.

He said: "We anticipate that transaction numbers will increase in the first half of 2008, supported by the recent interest rate cut and potential cuts in the coming months."

Didn’t I do well in making selective quotations which mis…sorry, lead the reader into my line of thought?! Indeed, a slowing of the market could prove beneficial to some groups.

"Ultimately first-time buyers could benefit from the change in the market. With investor activity having declined, there is less competition for properties in the sector of the market within the first-time buyer's budget."

And industry sources are still predicting interest rate drops for later in the year, despite the Bank of England freezing the base rate at 5.5% last week. Oh yes, I forget to mention the credit crunch which some people wrongly assume will stop first time buyers from getting the large multiple loans necessary to get onto the current ladder. In fact, NI is such a strong market that credit will be increasingly easy to obtain since our economy is widely accepted as one of the strongest in the world.

Classic.