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House Price Crash Forum

Jacko79

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About Jacko79

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  1. First thing, make sure a offer has been made and its not just an "interested viewer". Seeing the offer book wont prove anything, even if the EA WAS bluffing, he'd be smart enough to put in an entry. And most bluffing doesn't come from the EA (especially at the moment!), it comes from the vendor. Its like a big game of poker, and like poker you just have to trust your instincts on smelling a bluff. My advice - there is only one thing to do, ring the EA and tell them that your current offer is the last one they will get and its only valid until Friday 4pm, if you haven't heard anything by then call them and withdraw your offer (don't enter in to a discussion, dont back down, just withdraw, and possibly make an anon call on Monday to see it has been withdrawn). Remember, buyers have the power at the moment, so turn a possible bluff against you in to a bluff against them. And if it turns out there was a higher offer and you lose out - so what, there will be hundreds of similar properties out there and the last thing you want to do is get in to a bidding war!!! Personally I think all offers people make at the moment should be timebound, it makes the seller sweat, especially if the house has been sitting for ages - it might be their only chance for months, and they wont want to blow it.
  2. Maybe they should rename it "Gullible Buyer Chase"
  3. The single currency was always going to disadvantage small countries in times of economic difficulty - interest rates in the Eurozone are set to favour the big powers - Germany in particular. I could be mean and say that history has shown us what happens when the German's take control, but I won't Ireland is suffering horribly as a result of a massive boom caused by having too low, unsuitable, interest rates for so long. I really think the south is screwed - another Iceland. The UK should stay out of the euro though - Ireland can be the case study why.
  4. I love that graph - the NI drop looks like a slide I was on during my summer holidays
  5. I love this one http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=PNC365579 People - look, it rents at £8,160 a year/ £680 a month - so ermm, with a price of £195,000 that means unless you have a massive deposit to throw away, I mean use, that means that the monthly repayments are higher than rent income. But don't worry - it is a FANTASTIC investment opportunity, so good in fact, that the current investor is selling. Maybe its not because he is trying to escape the property market on one of the few last remaining lifeboats, but because it is such a good investment that he wants to give others a chance at it? Think I could be an estate agent?
  6. If you were a "real deal" investor, should you not have had the foresight and intelligence to realise in early 2007 that prices were out of control, unsustainable and too good to be true and that it was the time to sell before reality appeared in the market again? Even if it was a short term measure and you wanted to buy again in a few years? Local property investors remind me of the Simpson's episode where Homer invested in pumpkins , making an initial tidy profit, but not having the intelligence to sell before Hallow'een It really does baffle me just how stupid investors were. But what annoys me is that people like you refuse, refuse point blank, to back up any statement with fact, or indeed to refute other peoples' evidence based statements with fact. I can only assume that it is because you don't HAVE any credible argument, which would stand up to scrutiny, that backs up your position. Perhaps you could answer these questions? Failure to accept my challenge will just reinforce my point. 1) WHEN do you think the market will stop crashing? 2) WHAT do you think the average price of a house will be when this happens? 3) At this "bottoming out" level, HOW do you think these prices will be affordable and WHAT income will people need to be earning to afford them? 4) Do you admit that the Great Northern Ireland Housing Crash was brought about, at least partly, by the unsustainable housing boom that preceded it, and therefore that investors have to accept a lot of the blame for this?
  7. Hermy - you seem to forget the most important issue here, and that is that the lack of first time buyers in NI has less to do with the lack of mortgages and everything to do with high overvalued "bubble" prices. If you need evidence of this just go back and look at the stats DURING the house price boom, where mortgages were easy to come by - I recall in early 2007 FTB numbers in Northern Ireland were at their lowest level since 1980. In other words, credit crunch or no credit crunch, it was absolutely inevitable that we in NI were due this crash as soon as the investor frenzy cooled down, which again was inevitable due to the extreme nature of the frenzy. (Which is why I think it is fair to say that most of us here predicted the crash in the housing market, but perhaps didn't realise quite how bad the global credit crunch would get. The local crash and the global credit crunch are not one and the same, remember that our crash started BEFORE the crunch, therefore the crunch, while it most certainly is having a large effect on the housing market here, didn't CAUSE the local crash (but it will delay its recovery and make it deeper) - overvalued properties and the tailing off of investor crazy-buying did. This point is overlooked by almost everyone in the media here). A 90% mortgage for an person on average wages in NI of £21,000 at say 5x salary (have you checked what multiples are being offered for this particular loan?) means that the maximum house price he/she can afford to pay is £115,500. (That is assuming 5x is still possible AND the average FTB wage is equal to the average wage for NI as a whole, which of course it wont be due to the fact that the average FTB is young, starting out on a career and therefore, one suspects, earning less than the average). So, in this best-case scenario, can an army of FTB's paying a max of £115,500, plus the 300 odd houses that can be supported by Co-ownership in 08/09, up to £175,000, re-ignite the local market? I think it is pretty clear that they can't. My thinking is still the same - for a market recovery the following has to happen (in order of importance): 1) average house prices here have to fall to around £120,000 - £125,000 (evidenced by my calculations above) 2) mortgages need to be more available (this point is very much secondary to my first, as without point 1, it matters not how many mortgage deals become available) 3) the economy needs to improve (as people are not going to commit with the threat of unemployment in the air) My theory however is weakened by the thorny issue of deflation - people are likely to put off buying even if all 3 of my points come into fruition the "why buy now when its cheaper next month?" mentality is incredibly difficult to overcome and often the final nail in the coffin of a decimated economy. Therefore I will not be surprised if we see prices fall below £120,000, not because they are not affordable, but because of the mentality that rapid deflation creates.
  8. Not strictly NI related I know, but did anyone else hear property porno stars Kirstie and Phil on the Chris Moyles Radio 1 Breakfast Show this morning? Going on about how house prices would be back to 2007 levels in 2 and a half years time, and repeating the old myths about a massive rise round the corner because the UK is an island, shortage of houses, rising population, etc! I found their comments shocking, misleading and insulting, considering that the radio 1 demographic is firmly, if not exclusively, in the potential first time buyer age range. It was nothing else but a thinly disguised attempt to panic FTBs into the market, as the overriding point they made was that if FTBs didn't act now it might be too late. Obviously plugging their channel 4 show tonight, but the advice they gave made me angry. Did these "expert" clampets not previously say that there would be no fall, that house prices rises were sustainable and would just level off? What happened the "soft landing"? In my view they have absolutely no credibility left whatsoever. If anyone wants a laugh, here is the link to their show http://www.channel4.com/4homes/property-mo...-11-17_p_1.html
  9. At least the rental market is in fine form - 4 Bedroom house in the middle of Rental Market Heaven, no sweat - right? £800 a month anyone? http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l Oh, ok then - £700? http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l What!! Ok, surely £580?? http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l I have noticed properties in this area not renting, sitting on the market for months on end, some with multiple EA signs on them, some with For Sale and To Lets on the same house. There must be a good few investors out there unable to rent or sell their property, and it losing a few hundred pounds a DAY!!!! Almost makes you shed a tear for them:)
  10. Why do Halifax use the average MALE full time salary in their calculations? Is it because they don't think women should buy houses, or is it that they try and make the income of an average person look higher than it is? So stupid!
  11. what would i do if i was Primeminister? Hmm, first step would be to ban all other political parties, imprison all my generals, take over the armed forces, deport all estate agents and nationalise all the banks. But dont worry, i would keep the construction industry solvent, they would be building my palaces
  12. I am sick of Estate Agents like Mr Todd trying to get first time buyers into the market by making wild claims about how we all should buy now or "miss the boat". Well, we let that boat sail without us in 2006 and it has now, having hit the iceberg of realism, sunk with out trace. What he fails to mention is that when first time buyers are priced out, trouble for the market is not far behind. It is this disgraceful attempt at panicing first time buyers into the market that makes me take the view that the more estate agents that go out of business in this crash the better. They do not deserve even the slightest bit of sympathy!! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!
  13. Thing is - these vested interests have been saying the market has been picking up ever since it crashed, although according to them its a "correction", not a crash! I agree with the Newsletter this morning when it said that this is almost misselling, it has certainly been proved untruthful to date. The director of PropertyOne a few months back dismissed websites like ours by saying even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day - but these guys will keep saying this until the market picks up, which it will one day, as prices aren't going to fall to zero, so who is the broken clock now? But £190,000 for a house in Newtownabbey when the average wage is £21,000? The maths still dont work. And thats the key here - it doesn't matter if they scream market recovery from the rooftops, people cant buy because they cant afford - and the investors aren't coming back. But if the VIs ARE saying that the market is picking up, then they should be going back to Government and saying that they dont need help - right?
  14. The article in question http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...s-13430552.html oh dear - how foolish it all looks now mwaahahahahaha
  15. Did anyone see this article in the newsletter???? http://www.newsletter.co.uk/property-in-cr...line.4511448.jp Its an amazing read - mainly because it gives us at this website praise for spotting the crash. A free lollipop for the first person who can identify the reporter referred to the following extract from the article - "One property correspondent said in April 2007 – just as the boom was about to end: "But the big question is: where will it all end? In my opinion, not this year and probably not the next...house prices are inevitably on the up." Its really not that HC, i mean, hard!
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