The great HPC is HERE

[Blobsy]

42 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

A 40 year trend of lowering rates from 1980 to 2020.

Now we are in the opposite cycle which will last at least 10 years.

This is going to take some adjustment.

Lot's of metal health problems incoming. 

[The Angry Capitalist]

11 minutes ago, Blobsy said:

This is going to take some adjustment.

Lot's of metal health problems incoming. 

Yes. Unfortunately.

2008 and how governments responded has created this moral hazard where people have loaded up on debt thinking this can go on forever.

Lots of suffering coming where the lessons really need to be learnt this time around if western society has any chance of growing in the future and not on a road to major decline which is the path we are currently on.

[Stewy]

57 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

A 40 year trend of lowering rates from 1980 to 2020.

Now we are in the opposite cycle which will last at least 10 years.

There is no upwards cycle. There's just a one-off response to Covid Lockups and removal of Russian gas. 

It'll be back to ZIRP by decade end. 

[Stewy]

14 minutes ago, Blobsy said:

This is going to take some adjustment.

Lot's of metal health problems incoming. 

Oh no, more bridge collapses? 

[winkie]

57 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

A 40 year trend of lowering rates from 1980 to 2020.

Now we are in the opposite cycle which will last at least 10 years.

So higher rates mean can borrow less, borrow less means paying less.....why pay more?

Much better off with low borrowing and higher interest rates.....repayment loan over time till retirement or before giving few extra years to save for retirement even better.😉

[Aidan Ap Word]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

It'll be back to ZIRP by decade end.

What makes you say this?

 

I am assuming it is not just Hopium?

[Stewy]

8 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

What makes you say this?

 

I am assuming it is not just Hopium?

Reversion to the pre-Covid pre-energy-crisis mean.

[dpg50000]

9 hours ago, ExeC-UK said:

Can you jog on or post something relevant. Having you pop up replying to stewie every time is just as draining to read. You literally contribute nothing usefull to this forum, just comments about other people or calling people idiots.

You seem to post about people being younger and clueless on here so why not lead by example and act your age.

Believe it or not people have polar opposite opinions to yourself. Its a discussion forum, not an echo chamber for HPC Extemists.

Hi @Stewy 😀

I'll stop replying to Stewy's nonsense when he stops posting it. By the way, I've only replied to probably less than 1% of the ~3K nonsense posts he's made in the last year alone. I have never posted anything about people being younger and clueless, so that appears to be your mistake.

Yes, there's nothing wrong with having opposite opinions. My issue with the resident forum clown / troll is he stamps over all the discussions with his pithy, fact-free comments that he makes in the main just to try and get a rise out of people. If he wasn't such a whopper, he wouldn't get the flack he gets from several other posters on here, as well as me.

Edited April 4 by dpg50000

[Blobsy]

Random guy on inter webs forum reckons 'ZIRP by decade end.'

Here's another random's opinion -> We'll never see below 3.5% rates again in anybody on this forum's lifetime ✅

Edited April 4 by Blobsy

[DownwardSlopingPlateau]

1 hour ago, dpg50000 said:

My issue with the resident forum clown / troll is he stamps over all the discussions with his pithy, fact-free comments that he makes in the main just to try and get a rise out of people. If he wasn't such a whopper, he wouldn't get the flack he gets from several other posters on here, as well as me.

The real issue here is the complete lack of moderation on the forum. Whoever owns/runs this forum should get their finger out and actually do something; it's gone on far too long. The "report" option seems to be completely ignored.

As you say, there's no problem with differences of opinion, but when the site is hounded by so many VIs who come here to do nothing but endlessly troll, it kind of makes you skip the place all together. That's a shame, as it's one of the few places for UK economics discussion with a broad range of valid opinions.

I stopped using my previous account on here - of nearly 20 years - as I got sick of the nonsense. I've reached the same state again with this new account - obviously created as a spoof of you-know-who - where I just feel it's all become a bit pointless. I just can't be bothered digging through page after page of trolling to get through to some useful commentary. Hence I've stopped posting again.

Regards & best wishes.

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Blobsy said:

Random guy on inter webs forum reckons 'ZIRP by decade end.'

Here's another random's opinion -> We'll never see below 3.5% rates again in anybody on this forum's lifetime ✅

 

 

Correct.  👍

[Aidan Ap Word]

4 hours ago, Stewy said:

Reversion to the pre-Covid pre-energy-crisis mean.

Those were emergency interest rates. following a global liquidity crisis and the long running bail out of ... the world.

 

Be careful what you wish for.

 

If we have to revert to the interest rates of 2010->2022 it is because the global leadership are deciding this is the least-worst option.

[hotblack42]

1 hour ago, DownwardSlopingPlateau said:

The real issue here is the complete lack of moderation on the forum. Whoever owns/runs this forum should get their finger out and actually do something; it's gone on far too long. The "report" option seems to be completely ignored.

As you say, there's no problem with differences of opinion, but when the site is hounded by so many VIs who come here to do nothing but endlessly troll, it kind of makes you skip the place all together. That's a shame, as it's one of the few places for UK economics discussion with a broad range of valid opinions.

I stopped using my previous account on here - of nearly 20 years - as I got sick of the nonsense. I've reached the same state again with this new account - obviously created as a spoof of you-know-who - where I just feel it's all become a bit pointless. I just can't be bothered digging through page after page of trolling to get through to some useful commentary. Hence I've stopped posting again.

Regards & best wishes.

2/3 way multi page bickering & hijacking are also v. annoying.  There are some rather tragic souls on here riding hobby horses or pointlessly trying to get the last word in..🥱

Ignore is your friend.  Some of pages on my version of HPC are long lists of grey ignored posts😆

[hotblack42]

7 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

If we have to revert to the interest rates of 2010->2022 it is because the global leadership are deciding this is the least-worst option.

A global cataclysm & resultant deflation/depression could also give rise to ZIRP, but your proposition is more likely.  Neither are very nice, but hey, there’s more to life than money & possessions🙂

Edited April 4 by hotblack42
Clarity

[Saving For a Space Ship]

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March 2024 Update: Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Las Vegas by Wolf Richter • Mar 26, 2024 • 159 Comments

20-City Index drops for 3rd month in a row, forms Double Top.  Only Washington DC sets new all-time high.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/26/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-march-2024-update-biggest-price-drops-from-2022-peak-san-francisco-seattle-portland-denver-phoenix-dallas-las-vegas/

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bust #2 Has Begun by Wolf Richter • Feb 26, 2023 • 228 Comments

Some markets are already deep into it, others just started. A sobering trip from the free-money decade in la-la-land, back to normal.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/26/the-wolf-street-report-housing-bust-2-has-begun/

Edited April 4 by Saving For a Space Ship

[Stewy]

9 hours ago, DownwardSlopingPlateau said:

The real issue here is the complete lack of moderation on the forum. Whoever owns/runs this forum should get their finger out and actually do something; it's gone on far too long. The "report" option seems to be completely ignored.

As you say, there's no problem with differences of opinion, but when the site is hounded by so many VIs who come here to do nothing but endlessly troll, it kind of makes you skip the place all together. That's a shame, as it's one of the few places for UK economics discussion with a broad range of valid opinions.

I stopped using my previous account on here - of nearly 20 years - as I got sick of the nonsense. I've reached the same state again with this new account - obviously created as a spoof of you-know-who - where I just feel it's all become a bit pointless. I just can't be bothered digging through page after page of trolling to get through to some useful commentary. Hence I've stopped posting again.

Regards & best wishes.

There are plenty of internet forums that are either echo chambers (I can suggest one!), or that get five posts per day thanks to over-moderation of posts that don't go along with the prevailing forum orthodoxy. 

See ya! 

[stuckmojo]

I feel there's nothing more to give. All I hear from the US is how true inflation is still in double digits and wages can't keep up. People on 3 jobs, nobody except for migrants starting families, housing so expensive it can't be bought, but Blackrock buys all the good stock to rent back to the Gov't to house migrants etc. 

Sounds exactly like Britain

[Stewy]

31 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

I feel there's nothing more to give. All I hear from the US is how true inflation is still in double digits and wages can't keep up. People on 3 jobs, nobody except for migrants starting families, housing so expensive it can't be bought, but Blackrock buys all the good stock to rent back to the Gov't to house migrants etc. 

Sounds exactly like Britain

Focus on living the good life...time in nature is free...friends, family, exercise, healthy diet...rather than focussing on the one thing you can't yet afford ✓✓