Data Dave Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Sideways initial asking prices.... Huge increase in time spent on the market.... However, despite a better-than-expected start to the year, the market remains sensitive to pricing and external events: Rightmove’s real time data shows the growth in buyer demand was tempered somewhat by a lacklustre Spring Budget, with no direct help for first-time buyers or mortgage market innovations The average time to find a buyer is 71 days, the longest at this time of year since 2019. Attractively priced properties are quickly being cherry-picked, but over-optimistically priced sellers are taking longer to find a buyer The average 5-year mortgage rate is now 4.84% compared to 4.64% five weeks ago, as rates edge up to higher levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I am not surprised. The overpriced dross is now coming on with second agents now round here. Some really lovely houses coming on also but for 1 million asking you can either get a really nice house or a house worth about 550 priced about 1 million ... all over the shop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 The Plateau continues. BoE will hold this month and May too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) This must be what the state agent meant last week when he told me ‘prices are rising’. And all the while, properties that have been on the market now for 6+ months, and in some cases much, much more, continue to be reduced gradually in price without selling. Were still amongst peak delusion. Edited March 18 by Sackboii Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, Sackboii said: This must be what the state agent meant last week when he told me ‘prices are rising’. And all the while, properties that have been on the market now for 6+ months, and in some cases much, much more, continue to be reduced gradually in price without selling. Were still amongst peak delusion. 100s of 1000s of market participants all deluded according to one poster on an internet forum. Ever consider that actually you might be wrong? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, Huggy said: Are you a @Stewy or @Stjames83 type who went mental a couple of years back, throwing all the money at anything building shaped during Covid? How big's the mortgage too? Guardian columnist sized, or just a regular half a million? I can sense the latest interest rate improvements might not have gone the way you had hoped. Yeah absolutely. I PCP’d a BMW X5 too and had the rose pink paint extra with the 22 inch wheels. What really broke me was the personalised number plate A1 BTL. I regret everything and have the bailiffs at my door daily and my house will be repossessed in the next two months unless I get some sort of bailout. If only I’d found this forum sooner I could have sat on my hands like you for a decade and posted about buying a bargain consummate with my standing in society for pennies once the crash comes. Wanna buy a well loved BMW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 36 minutes ago, Sackboii said: We're still amongst peak delusion. Yes, the markets and possibly mortgage lenders are starting to realise that the potential for rate cuts is on the decrease. Estate agents and your average house seller are still caught up in the delusion. Probably a mixture of reasons, many just don't understand, remain hopeful, or are greedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Is peak delusion a synonym for peak prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 6 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Is peak delusion a synonym for peak prices? delusion | American Dictionary ... something a person believes and wants to be true, when it is actually not true Expectation of rate cuts. I've been posting about this delusion since near the end of last year. What has happened so far? Markets have adjusted their expectation of cuts from 6-7 cuts to just 3, and that's only so far. What happened to spring cuts? Expectations keep getting pushed back. On the upcoming inflation data: Service-sector inflation, another figure closely watched by the Bank, is also set to fall but remain high at 6%. James Smith, developed markets economist, called the services figure “the single most important indicator for determining the timing of the first rate cut”. Edited March 18 by cdd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 fascinating story but on the ground houses are still selling at peak prices. Albeit at lower volume. So what’s delusional about the pricing? If some peope are paying? Admittedly fewer people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 58 minutes ago, Stewy said: 100s of 1000s of market participants all deluded according to one poster on an internet forum. Ever consider that actually you might be wrong? 🤔 100’s of 1000’s of properties for sale and a significant number not selling in 6/8/10/12 months+ at the listed prices. Ever considered that you are wrong ? Given that you are about everything else so far ? You are that Internet forum poster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 14 minutes ago, mynamehere said: fascinating story but on the ground houses are still selling at peak prices. Albeit at lower volume. So what’s delusional about the pricing? If some peope are paying? Admittedly fewer people Possibly the crème de la crème of available properties ? The top 5% of quality homes ? The ones with wow factor ? These things often pull punters in to pay more, and for understandable reasons a lot of the time. People have historically got carried away on cheap debt though in my view which is a large part of why prices are now where they are. There’s so much dross around at the same prices as the top properties though, and they are not selling. What’s the reason(s) they’re not selling ? What’s the cause of the lower volume ? Clue: Starts with a P and has the product of a paddy field at the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Sackboii said: 100’s of 1000’s of properties for sale and a significant number not selling in 6/8/10/12 months+ at the listed prices. Ever considered that you are wrong ? Given that you are about everything else so far ? You are that Internet forum poster. He's really keen on HPi isn;t he for someone who owns outright and earns thick end of 200k a year ? If you had to profile him according to his posts you'd be forgiven for having the profile of someone with hundreds of thousands in mortgage debt who really doesn;t like the rising cost of mortgage debt servicing... Edited March 18 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, Sackboii said: Possibly the crème de la crème of available properties ? The top 5% of quality homes ? The ones with wow factor ? These things often pull punters in to pay more, and for understandable reasons a lot of the time. People have historically got carried away on cheap debt though in my view which is a large part of why prices are now where they are. There’s so much dross around at the same prices as the top properties though, and they are not selling. What’s the reason(s) they’re not selling ? What’s the cause of the lower volume ? Clue: Starts with a P and has the product of a paddy field at the end. It seems to me that 'enough' people are buying the dross to keep the market ticking over in a lower gear. With no sign of capitulation from sellers. The sentiment is currently that eventually wages and savings will catch up with seller's expectations, and the likes of fellow will eventually pay current prices. Maybe not today, maybe not this year, but at some point. And a stagnant market for years seems more likely than a dramatic sell off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Shocker as non-seasonally adjusted initial asking price index increases in the run up to the Spring Bounce... Even in a post apocalyptic zombie wasteland, the RM index would go up at this time each year. It was up more ahead of the 2022 Spring Bounce, and still up last year despite the backdrop of rising interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Here's the Rightmove price data including price drops, showing a small uptick. An here's the number of listings showing rapidly increasing supply after a rapid decrease at the end of last year. It looks like a lot of sellers took their house off the market before Christmas hoping to relist and get a better price in Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 4 hours ago, mynamehere said: Is peak delusion a synonym for peak prices? https://www.ft.com/content/77982158-7e3a-4646-afc0-78365ba5d973 Chance of Fed June cut now under 50% as higher for longer worries return. Edited March 18 by cdd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 11 minutes ago, cdd said: https://www.ft.com/content/77982158-7e3a-4646-afc0-78365ba5d973 Great, so it's going to cost me even more interest to borrow enough money to wrench a house off a boomer who owns his house outright. Celebrate good times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 15 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Great, so it's going to cost me even more interest to borrow enough money to wrench a house off a boomer who owns his house outright. Celebrate good times. That's a rather simple way of looking at what is a very complicated system of interactions. But if that's what you are determined to do, soon, at all costs, then yes, it's going to cost you. Edited March 18 by cdd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 6 minutes ago, cdd said: That's a rather simple way of looking at what is a very complicated system of interactions. But if that's what you are determined to do, soon, at all costs, then yes, it's going to cost you. It's what pretty everyone here is hoping to do, improve their buying power, making their money/resources go further. The idea that higher inflation is going to further that cause is massively flawed imo I've yet to see a single person give a convincing example of how higher inflation is going to improve their position Edited March 18 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, mynamehere said: It's what pretty everyone here is hoping to do, improve their buying power, making their money/resources go further. The idea that higher inflation is going to further that cause is massively flawed imo I've yet to see a single person give a convincing example of how higher inflation is going to improve their position Wage rises outpace interest rate and real inflation. Take on huge debt. Enjoy life. See, er, the last 50yrs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Housepricecrash91 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Asking prices seem to have crept up again near me in Greater London (South). These are predominantly houses that are new to the market though. A lot will definitely reduce their prices, but by how much I'm not sure. I'm surprised how shocked people are that asking prices are creeping up....It's kind of obvious that asking prices won't drop... It's negotiation 101... Nobody wants to leave money on the table... and way to do that is to start with a ridiculous asking price. People anchor high for the first offer because they don't expect to get that price, and are willing to accept something slightly lower..... Sellers know that in the current market buyers are negotiating prices down... and are wanting a 'deal', so if they can overprice by £20k, then knock that off when a buyer negotiates then it comes across as a win-win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 13 hours ago, mynamehere said: It's what pretty everyone here is hoping to do, improve their buying power, making their money/resources go further. The idea that higher inflation is going to further that cause is massively flawed imo I've yet to see a single person give a convincing example of how higher inflation is going to improve their position I don't think I'm the target of this question but higher inflation eventually normalises out (if we think history repeats). Wages rise, stock values go up, and debt is eroded. Higher inflation improves my situation because I have a large mortgage and enjoy seeing it eroded by inflation while my global equities fund does this: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VWRP:LON?window=5Y Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 38 minutes ago, Housepricecrash91 said: Asking prices seem to have crept up again near me in Greater London (South). These are predominantly houses that are new to the market though. A lot will definitely reduce their prices, but by how much I'm not sure. I'm surprised how shocked people are that asking prices are creeping up....It's kind of obvious that asking prices won't drop... It's negotiation 101... Nobody wants to leave money on the table... and way to do that is to start with a ridiculous asking price. People anchor high for the first offer because they don't expect to get that price, and are willing to accept something slightly lower..... Sellers know that in the current market buyers are negotiating prices down... and are wanting a 'deal', so if they can overprice by £20k, then knock that off when a buyer negotiates then it comes across as a win-win. Agents want the business......what happens when offers are not the 'right' offer and price has to be reduced by £20k......new £20k offers off the reduced price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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