fellow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) UK house prices predicted to fall again based on recent sales agreed https://propertyindustryeye.com/uk-house-prices-predicted-to-fall-again-based-on-recent-sales-agreed/ "Residential property prices will fall 3.6% in the first quarter of the year, based on deals agreed between buyers and sellers in Q4 2023, Reallymoving’s House Price Forecast Q1 2024 shows. The research is based on analysis of approximately 115,000 conveyancing quote forms, which are completed by buyers once a deal is agreed, giving insight into what they have agreed to pay before the transaction completes. The graph below shows how Reallymoving’s data anticipates Land Registry housing market trends Conveyancing quote data indicates what buyers have agreed to pay three months before Land Registry data is published: Period Average Price Agreed Quarterly Change Annual Change 2023 Q1 £323,443 -4.6% +7.9% 2023 Q2 £326,468 +0.9% -2.2% 2023 Q3 £336,999 +3.2% -1.6% 2023 Q4 £323,594 -4.0% -4.5% 2024 Q1 £311,936 -3.6% -3.6% Reallymoving captures the price buyers have just agreed to pay for a property when they secure quotes for conveyancing services on the comparison site. This service is used by almost 10% of all home movers in the UK, providing a unique forecast of Land Registry data in 3 months’ time. Analysis of house price data from over 115,000 conveyancing quotes shows that the average property price will fall from £323,594 in Q4 2023 to £311,936 in Q1 2024. Annual house price growth is also at -3.6%, meaning house prices are currently £11,500 lower than a year ago". Edited January 31 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 It looks like the last couple of month's Nationwide figures are reflecting the Q3 uptick and we will see declining house prices going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Interesting, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) The press release mentions a graph. The index suggests 2024 Q1 prices will be about the same, (+0.5%) as 2023 Q1 prices. Which is exactly what nationwide is saying too. https://www.reallymoving.com/house-price-forecast I can't figure out where they get the numbers in the OP. Edited January 31 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) I wouldn't even trust "sale agreed" figures. There is a house in this road for sale with no forward chain. After a couple of months and a price reduction it went to Sold STC. Months later it is back to For Sale. How can I see the listing history on Rightmove to confirm these timings? It is possible that each period has been longer than a couple of months. Edited January 31 by TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Me again. Same line. “Nothing much is selling at all”. The same houses have been on for many months, and despite being pitched lower than the 2023 peak. I can’t see things changing because mortgage rates won’t drop considerably for at year another year. Over the last 3-4 years food is up 50%. Energy has DOUBLED. Insurance up, subscriptions up, literally everything costs significantly more now and we are getting hit for more tax than ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said: Me again. Same line. “Nothing much is selling at all”. The same houses have been on for many months, and despite being pitched lower than the 2023 peak. I can’t see things changing because mortgage rates won’t drop considerably for at year another year. Over the last 3-4 years food is up 50%. Energy has DOUBLED. Insurance up, subscriptions up, literally everything costs significantly more now and we are getting hit for more tax than ever. It does seem the only people moving are renters. Every six months... 🫢 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 hours ago, Stewy said: It does seem the only people moving are renters. Every six months... 🫢 Your usual sizeable contribution. Clown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 50 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: Your usual sizeable contribution. Clown. Poor Stewy the incel. He’s having a meltdown now his beloved Taylor’s shagging Kelce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Blobsy said: He’s having a meltdown now his beloved Taylor’s shagging Kelce. I'm more of an Avril man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Good post, thanks for sharing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Nice to see some encouraging numbers; do we know how well these tally with LR / / NW / Halifax data historically? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) Further, latest Nationwide figures versus the above Really Moving forecast values for England and Wales from here. Big difference in absolute values and the RM plot is smoother, but there seems to be a reasonable correlation. Presumably the significant difference in absolute sale prices is probably due to RM's use by those buying more expensive properties.. so that's one potential source of error.. Adds some credibility to their predictions IMO Edited February 1 by ftb_fml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, ftb_fml said: Further, latest Nationwide figures versus the above Really Moving forecast values for England and Wales from here. Big difference in absolute values and the RM plot is smoother, but there seems to be a reasonable correlation. Presumably the significant difference in absolute sale prices is probably due to RM's use by those buying more expensive properties.. so that's one potential source of error.. Adds some credibility to their predictions IMO The red one reminds me of something, can’t think what Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandOfConfusion Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 31/01/2024 at 08:18, fellow said: 2023 Q1 £323,443 2023 Q2 £326,468 2023 Q3 £336,999 Interesting; this matches my observations so far fairly closely. Pretty much nothing within my price range has sold in the two areas I'm looking to buy in so far for so let's hope the Q1 2024 figures will match what they suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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