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House Price Crash Forum


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About LandOfConfusion

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    “homeownership is so economically and socially advantageous" - Conservative MP Chris Philp

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  1. Can't disagree with that. What annoys me though is my and younger generations' approach to what is happening. There's a junior manager I know at work who, rather than buy a house is instead looking to get a Ford Mustang. I mentioned to him how people like him and myself are getting screwed, both the government and Boomers and to my absolute disgust not only was he fully cognisant of those facts but also too lazy and defeatist to do anything about them. Sadly I think he and many like him will get what they deserve. Sentiment can change rapidly and bear in mind, people won't sell if they don't have to. In previous crashes it was the forced sellers who really drove the market; those that didn't need to sell just sat on their hands. This is one of the reasons why I suspect stagnation is the most probable outcome. But I live in hope! I'm not sure about BTL landlords although it's possible they're selling to retire and are worried about missing the boat / finding it too difficult al la Fergus Wilson. And as for bank caution, that's inevitable given the current 'no one knows' situation but that could easily defrost rapidly just like it has in the past (2008/09).
  2. I'm not sure how to quantify deaths due to lockdown and without data it's all just speculation. But the deaths because we took no action, because more vulnerable people got infected and especially the deaths because we ran out of ICU space and so otherwise treatable cases became terminal, that can be estimated with the data we have. And those projections look pretty grim. Not sure about mass unemployment or indeed a consequent depression. There's definitely going to be some economic contraction but will this be offset by current interest rates, yet more government market intervention and perhaps some more, maybe even government subsidised, mortgage holidays/forbearance? Might there even be Help to Buy v2 where the banks permanently take over some/all existing equity in exchange for delaying the inevitable? "Convert your mortgage to a shared ownership scam!". "With the SIPP-compatible Natwest REIT you can...".
  3. My thoughts too. A rate rise now would be pretty catastrophic and unlikely to happen unless forced. And I don't know about anyone else but I can't see anything likely to force it. And on a somewhat thread-related point this just came up on my phone: Mortgage rates hit another all-time low as home buyers rush to secure cheap financing So it doesn't look like mass unemployment in the US is having a major negative effect.
  4. It's difficult to know as although the fundamentals would suggest a significant fall, they have done that several times since 2001 and only really in 2008 did it happen. The problem is government interference. There's a lot of hatred here towards the Boomer generation and that's in part because they are the favoured group and successive governments have used housing as a major means of transferring wealth from younger generations to them. So I'd say it's a gamble. On one hand deflation should now ensue, which should dampen house prices and then followed by a period of high inflation and high(er) interest rates as a recovery takes place. But on the other it's highly likely the government will simply raise taxes on productivity, which will do little to hurt the majority of Boomers who are now retiring, and use that together with more house-price raising schemes (temporarily scrap stamp duty?) to keep things going for a few more years. My personal feeling is that the damage won't be as much as some hope or suspect and that house prices will continue to rise a little, although it's going to be interesting to see how governments around the world will deal with the debt. Especially seeing as monetisation (printing to pay government debt instead of getting it though taxation) now seems to have little in the way of consequences. That said if you happen to live in a part of the UK which is especially vulnerable and sees lots of layoffs come end of furlough then maybe wait?
  5. The wiring can deteriorate and I've heard of at least one case where it caused an intermittent fault leading to a section of plumbing becoming live. And sadly the tenant died in that one. In general though it seems to be OK provided you leave it alone. When my parents' house was re-wired a few years ago I got to see them take out the old 1960's cabling. Some of it had started to turn to what was in effect wire-in-powder, which I imagine that's actually safe provided you don't move, nail into or otherwise interfere with it in any way (like for instance when redecorating!). Oh, and still having a wire-based fuse board (no RCBs) wasn't ideal either.
  6. 3 months to complete + 1 month delay. Just had a look at Zoopla's asking prices, 3.3% for here and 1.52% for where I'm currently looking. Prices for the last 3 months are essentially no change but then there doesn't appear to have been any sales so no surprise.
  7. True although HP's had been falling since Jun 2016 and from what I've seen in my local area the recent pickup has only continued. Case in point: a house I looked at had it's asking jacked up by £10k in less than a week, probably because of the interest (2k+ views on Zoopla alone). And I thought it was already pushing it a bit at it's original price...
  8. Well looking at the latest Land Reg' statistics it so far doesn't look like prices are falling: That said the data range is Jan 2010 - Mar 2020, so there might have been a downturn since but if that's the case then it's certainly not happening around here (SE England).
  9. No offence but I'm guessing you're new to this? The general public just isn't that smart and far too many (most?) have a 'live for the moment' mentality.
  10. Well I suspect there are already extra deaths caused by people not seeing the doctor or going to hospital due to worries about being infected, so there's that. But as for the extra deaths caused due to a recession, that's not something I know how to quantify. We were overdue for a nasty, deep recession anyway so does having it now make any worse a difference, especially considering the loss of life which might have occurred due to exhaustion of hospital facilities in the no lockdown / 'do nothing' scenario?
  11. It's always interesting when a scientist goes against the grain. I've had a look and he raises lots of points, but two central ones pop out to me. The first is that most people will get infected eventually and all we are doing is delaying the deaths. To which I'd respond: er, yes? Where trying to stop the NHS from being overloaded and if we can keep the rate of infections low enough then we can manage this. His second position seems to be that lockdown isn't data driven, i.e. that we have no evidence that it will work or does anything useful. To that I'd say it hasn't happened before so naturally there is no data, only information from previous flu epidemics, which themselves showed that the introduction of lockdowns reduced the rate of infections and consequently deaths. That's not a 1:1 comparison but it's better then going "Oh well, lets' just see". But of course all of this depends on your priorities. In the anarcho-libertarian 'economy first' scenario people dying, especially if they are retired or otherwise economically inactive isn't really a concern. And after all, they're going to die anyway so why worry?
  12. Given how some governments (and people!) are acting it probably is. If it weren't for all those years debating BTL'ers I would have said the level of selfishness I've seen has been stunning. But as I've said before, all you can do is try and protect yourself & your family. And you should do what you can to let the others suffer, i.e. like the grasshopper & the ants but without the happy ending. I suspect over time it'll get better at spreading & infecting but also less dangerous. Don't hold your breath. (Well then again that might actually work but only until you can either get home or get a FFP3 mask).
  13. The government is now going nearly full whack on tacking on debt, so from that perspective they're going to need to engineer inflation which in turn will devalue the real value of everyone's debts, including yours. They've had a few goes at this already (see house prices going up over the last few months) but with all this mass spending things are now going to get really serious. So it's either force inflation higher and make current debts worth less (worthless?) in real terms or allow the state go bankrupt. I'll let you decide which of those is the most likely outcome.
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