Stewy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: Inflation will build again very shortly - the idiots in charge will respond in due course (when it's too late). How's the Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandabear Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 03/01/2024 at 16:28, Casual-observer said: My casual finger in the air guess tells me we're currently in a recession, how severe remains to be seen. 1) My employers head count down by a third 2) Investment in commercial real estate is virtually non existent and we're actually seeing an increase in taking in collateral real estate for companies going belly up 3) Clear uptick in retail vacancies is occurring 4) Obvious uptick in people losing jobs in my circles. Any benefit of tax cuts won't be felt by the Tories electorally, they're out of time. I never could, and still do not how growth and inflation are not related. Surely if inflation exceeds growth then we are in recession? yet we are told that growth occurs regardless of how much our purchasing power falls. We have been in recession for more than 20 years if inflation is taken into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarky Cat Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Bond yields do appear to have reversed their crumbling over the last couple of weeks . ✔✔✔ 5yr 3.56% from a low of below 3.25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) Misread a post, never mind. Edited January 4 by cdd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 hours ago, Stewy said: How's the I don't really give a damn one way or the other. But hey... inflation is rising again not so far away. https://www.ft.com/content/be92c378-1ccb-4d8c-92fd-15fe4b51d906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 hours ago, Clarky Cat said: Bond yields do appear to have reversed their crumbling over the last couple of weeks . ✔✔✔ 5yr 3.56% from a low of below 3.25% Yes, the analysts know what's going to happen... inflationary pressures are building once again. https://www.ft.com/content/be92c378-1ccb-4d8c-92fd-15fe4b51d906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownwardSlopingPlateau Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: Yes, the analysts know what's going to happen... inflationary pressures are building once again. https://www.ft.com/content/be92c378-1ccb-4d8c-92fd-15fe4b51d906 Indeed: FRANKFURT, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation jumped as expected last month, supporting the European Central Bank’s case to keep interest rates at record highs for some time, even as markets continued to bet on a rapid fall in borrowing costs. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-inflation-jumps-cooling-case-ecb-rate-cuts-2024-01-05/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cut-odds-tumble-eu-inflation-re-accelerates-december Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuf-ww Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 US economy adds 216000 jobs for December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggus Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 hours ago, Clarky Cat said: Bond yields do appear to have reversed their crumbling over the last couple of weeks . ✔✔✔ 5yr 3.56% from a low of below 3.25% Markets seem to have been betting on a recession. Rates tend to be cut during a recession. On radio 4 this morning a chap from the BOE explained the expectation of future cuts is allowing banks to offer lower mortgage rates. I'm not sure a recession would be good for house prices, even if there are small rate cuts. Can't say for sure prices wont go rocketing up, but it doesn't seem likely. The good news is that a return to the insanity of extreme low interest rates seems to be off the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowed Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 03/01/2024 at 16:43, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said: My sector normally there would be jobs everywhere, but i struggle to even find any. I think companies have put on a recruitment freeze or people are just staying put. Maybe - I work in IT and we have loads of open roles, and friends back in London seem to be looking for people too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowed Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Our mortgage is up in end Feb, really need to get a move on with a new deal, but this morning saw 5 year fix at less than 4 percent with no fee and 2 years not much higher - I'm very pleased I waited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, crow said: Our mortgage is up in end Feb, really need to get a move on with a new deal, but this morning saw 5 year fix at less than 4 percent with no fee and 2 years not much higher - I'm very pleased I waited. Congratulations. It's probably about the right time, as I can't see mortgage fixes dropping for the next six months. The banks have front-run some of the BoE cuts but they will pause there and take stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheResponsibleHouseBuyer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, crow said: Maybe - I work in IT and we have loads of open roles, and friends back in London seem to be looking for people too. I thought there were a lot of cut backs in IT given rise of AI tech etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowed Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said: I thought there were a lot of cut backs in IT given rise of AI tech etc. May be in the next few years, and I can see it hitting testers initially, but we still urgently need good engineers, architect and designers - most big companies aren't ready for ai to do a lot more than customer support augmentation yet. Plus massive demand for engineers that can write applications that use GenAI tooling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowed Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 26 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said: Edited January 5 by crow Duplicate post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownwardSlopingPlateau Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 54 minutes ago, crow said: Our mortgage is up in end Feb, really need to get a move on with a new deal, but this morning saw 5 year fix at less than 4 percent with no fee and 2 years not much higher - I'm very pleased I waited. Link? MSE best showing at the moment is 4.19% with £1k fee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, Stewy said: Congratulations. It's probably about the right time, as I can't see mortgage fixes dropping for the next six months. The banks have front-run some of the BoE cuts but they will pause there and take stock. There won't be any cuts for the next 6 months - the banks don't have much of a clue. PS. watch China closely... economic activity zipping up again, just to make things worse re: Inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowed Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 hours ago, DownwardSlopingPlateau said: Link? MSE best showing at the moment is 4.19% with £1k fee. I'm only borrowing 19% of my homes value, so the deals are usually better for those sort of loan. But the specific loan I saw doesn't appear now - best I get with zero fee is 4.14% with HSBC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 16 hours ago, crow said: May be in the next few years, and I can see it hitting testers initially, but we still urgently need good engineers, architect and designers - most big companies aren't ready for ai to do a lot more than customer support augmentation yet. Plus massive demand for engineers that can write applications that use GenAI tooling. No one knows the future but in the past having in demand IT skills during recessions while houses, goods & services deflated was absolutely fab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/06/bank-of-england-cut-interest-rates-2024-mpc-deanne-julius/ Interest rate cuts unlikely in 2024, warns founding MPC member Dame DeAnne says wage growth is ‘too strong’ for the Bank to consider loosening rates The Bank of England will not be able to cut interest rates this year, a founding member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has warned. High wage growth and the risk of further energy price shocks mean the Bank could have to raise interest rates rather than lower them, said Dame DeAnne Julius. Her comments will dampen hopes that the Bank will be able to make its first rate cut in spring after inflation fell to a two-year low of 3.9pc in November. City investors have priced in the first rate cut in May, while some economists have predicted that the Bank could lower rates from 5.25pc to 4pc in 2024. Expectations of lower rates have already sparked a mortgage price war as banks battle for customers. But Dame DeAnne, who served on the Bank’s first MPC from 1997 to 2001, said she doesn’t think rates will fall in 2024. She said: “I don’t think the Bank will be able to because I don’t think inflation will come down much further or much faster. I think we are stuck with a fairly sticky inflation situation. “Wages are just too strong. The labour market is too tight.” There is also a risk of another rise in energy prices, Dame DeAnne warned, particularly as tensions rise in the Middle East. It is feasible that the Bank could even need to make another increase in the Bank Rate to 5.5pc this year, she added. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has raised its headline rate from a record low of 0.1pc to 5.25pc in a bid to bring runaway inflation back down to its target rate of 2pc. Deutsche Bank expects the consumer prices index CPI will average 2.7pc across 2024. Dame DeAnne said that the impact of high wage growth will continue to flow through the economy this year. She said: “When you get the kind of high wage increases that we have seen, it affects the whole services sector, and that is a much bigger sector than the goods sector in our economy.” Annual growth in regular earnings excluding bonuses was 7.3pc from August to October, according to the Office for National Statistics. This was more than double the rate recorded in the same period in 2019. Three of the Bank’s nine MPC members voted for a further increase in interest rates at the committee’s December meeting. In other news, the FT reports that investors are reigning back bets on interest rate cuts. Stewy should save some of that super copium for himself. I think he'll need it this year. Edited January 6 by cdd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, cdd said: It is feasible that the Bank could even need to make another increase in the Bank Rate to 5.5pc this year, she added. ... In other news, the FT reports that investors are reigning back bets on interest rate cuts. Stewy should save some of that super copium for himself. I think he'll need it this year. AHAHAHAHA!!! 🤣 That's all. 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The Junior doctors are wanting 35% and everyone else wants their share too. The problem is, just about everyone had too much debt that they now can't service, with interest rates heading back towards 300 year norms. Inflation is a huge issue, but debt repayment is the real reason that most people are crying for massive pay increases. Debtors are the desperate ones and we have a sh1tload of them in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 On 1/5/2024 at 7:32 PM, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: There won't be any cuts for the next 6 months - the banks don't have much of a clue. PS. watch China closely... economic activity zipping up again, just to make things worse re: Inflation. Yeah a load of people whose livelihood and ability to sip champagne off strippers have no clue about finance whereas matey on the internet has got it all nailed… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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