"Brexit has failed" - what happens next

[kzb]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Why do I think joining the Single Market will help ? Because it will give us four key freedoms across our continent. 

Unfortunately they never wanted our stuff.  But they did succeed in out-competing our own producers (largely through hidden subsidies, and more recently through cheap EE countries joining).

The 90 billion trade deficit or whatever it is these days comes straight off the UK GDP bottom line.

[pig]

1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

It will end up with the debate about whether or not trade barriers are barriers to trade.

Hmmm

To be fair it is a  tricky one for conservatives as free trade and freedom generally is meant to be a bit of a cornerstone. Its in a messy altercation with the fearful and belligerent iliberal component..

Inevitably Conservatives have punched themselves in the face.

Either they insist they are the fist and not the face, or when pressed on the obvious, pretend it was somebody else's fist.

Well OK, its the country carrying the black eye...

[Bob8]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

Hmmm

To be fair it is a  tricky one for conservatives as free trade and freedom generally is meant to be a bit of a cornerstone. Its in a messy altercation with the fearful and belligerent iliberal component..

Inevitably Conservatives have punched themselves in the face.

Either they insist they are the fist and not the face, or when pressed on the obvious, pretend it was somebody else's fist.

Well OK, its the country carrying the black eye...

John Redwood as asserting that barriers were no barrier on QT.

In the old days, the Tories were against free trade and the Whigs were for it. Come the late C19th, the Whigs mergred into the Tories. A two party system means each party is essentially a coalition and the Conservatives include free trade Whig Neo cons, hard Tories, tmoderate right raditionalist Confucius types, and populist right all rolled into one.

[winkie]

15 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

John Redwood as asserting that barriers were no barrier on QT.

In the old days, the Tories were against free trade and the Whigs were for it. Come the late C19th, the Whigs mergred into the Tories. A two party system means each party is essentially a coalition and the Conservatives include free trade Whig Neo cons, hard Tories, tmoderate right raditionalist Confucius types, and populist right all rolled into one.

The don't know if they are coming or going.

[pig]

2 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

John Redwood as asserting that barriers were no barrier on QT.

In the old days, the Tories were against free trade and the Whigs were for it. Come the late C19th, the Whigs mergred into the Tories. A two party system means each party is essentially a coalition and the Conservatives include free trade Whig Neo cons, hard Tories, tmoderate right raditionalist Confucius types, and populist right all rolled into one.

Up till recently, at least as far back as Thatcher, there was a seemingly coherent presentation of economic liberalism and social iliberalism.

Two spheres that from afar did not appear to contradict eg "I have ten houses and loadsa money that them black gay teenage pregnant mums are too useless to achieve. Get orf my taxes - they should be punished !" 

Well, you can see them trying to represent and/or resolve that partnership but it seems to be leading to more obvious tragi-comical contradictions.

Home office policy is raw sewage. As with the cr4p trade deals trying to replace the river of trade with the continent

[Bob8]

7 minutes ago, pig said:

Up till recently, at least as far back as Thatcher, there was a seemingly coherent presentation of economic liberalism and social iliberalism.

Two spheres that from afar did not appear to contradict eg "I have ten houses and loadsa money that them black gay teenage pregnant mums are too useless to achieve. Get orf my taxes - they should be punished !" 

Well, you can see them trying to represent and/or resolve that partnership but it seems to be leading to more obvious tragi-comical contradictions.

Home office policy is raw sewage. As with the cr4p trade deals trying to replace the river of trade with the continent

Even back in the 1980s, there was a split on Europe. And the freedom wing should not agree with social conservatism, we had John Major lowering the age of consent for gay sex and reverse the policy of encouraging violence in Northern Ireland. But I agree the splits do sem more apparent.

[pig]

1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

Even back in the 1980s, there was a split on Europe. And the freedom wing should not agree with social conservatism, we had John Major lowering the age of consent for gay sex and reverse the policy of encouraging violence in Northern Ireland. But I agree the splits do sem more apparent.

I'd say generally bananas. For example some Brexiters argued that was racist to discriminate against people immigrating from outside of the EU.

Also funny is we're only now 'discovering' that by definition you only have 50% control over any border unless you have an arrangement with the other 50% (previously characterised as 'surrendering sovereignty')

[Bob8]

3 minutes ago, pig said:

I'd say generally bananas. For example some Brexiters argued that was racist to discriminate against people immigrating from outside of the EU.

Also funny is we're only now 'discovering' that by definition you only have 50% control over any border unless you have an arrangement with the other 50% (previously characterised as 'surrendering sovereignty')

I missed that in 2016, even now people struggle with the idea that controlling the border with the EU means either breaking the GFA or having the border in Ireland. It is really odd.

[dugsbody]

3 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Of course, but if you agree that it's not always the case, then you must also see that it's quite rational to retain control over trade policy at the national level.

No, your conclusion doesn't follow.

[pig]

59 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I missed that in 2016, even now people struggle with the idea that controlling the border with the EU means either breaking the GFA or having the border in Ireland. It is really odd.

You can almost hear the cogs malfunctioning in the minds of people bashing away at square pegs into round holes on the radio. A classic is the cherished 'image' of BJ vs the reality.

It would be unrealistic, for example, to call Dorries some evil machiavellian fiend, or a bad faith debater,  or troll, or Far Right opportunist or whatever.  She is genuinely lost in her delirium. So it often was with Brexit.

[pig]

5 hours ago, Bob8 said:

I missed that in 2016,

Here you go - a kind of 'projection' in action again:

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU is founded on othering, which is why it's called the *European* Union and not, say, the Democratic Union, open to all countries that meet the criteria.

Although I think its a conscious admission of an irrational bigotry at the heart of Brexit.

[Confusion of VIs]

Yet another Fail. 

Despite requests from the UK and some motor manufactures the EU has decided not to defer implementation of rules of origin. This effectively means the end of the UK's large scale car industry as we have failed to prepare for the move to EVs and have no prospect of setting up battery plants before the rules come into place. 

This is a another Lose- lose aspect of Brexit it hurts the UK and EU manufactures, but far bigger impact on UK production. Good for the Japanese/Chinese though.

 

  

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yet another Fail. 

Despite requests from the UK and some motor manufactures the EU has decided...

This is a another Lose- lose aspect of Brexit it hurts the UK and EU manufactures....

The EU has decided to hurt itself unnecessarily? Why is it letting ideology override its interests? Where is the democratic mandate to harm its own citizens? Is this a constitutional system that anyone would want to copy?

[kzb]

15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU has decided to hurt itself unnecessarily? Why is it letting ideology override its interests? Where is the democratic mandate to harm its own citizens? Is this a constitutional system that anyone would want to copy?

@Confusion of VIs

The German car batteries don't meet the rules of origin either.  So a big case of "self harm" all round.

I suppose the intention is to kill the car industry anyhow, whether here or Germany.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

On 01/07/2023 at 17:05, kzb said:

Unfortunately they never wanted our stuff.  But they did succeed in out-competing our own producers (largely through hidden subsidies, and more recently through cheap EE countries joining).

The 90 billion trade deficit or whatever it is these days comes straight off the UK GDP bottom line.

The deficit has gone up massively, around £20bn since we voted for Brexit. So yes that another £20bn loss we can attribute to Brexit.

NB "They never wanted our stuff" is nonsense ,they buy huge amounts of our stuff. We just don't make enough stuff that is better/cheaper than they can buy elsewhere.

[kzb]

7 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The deficit has gone up massively, around £20bn since we voted for Brexit. So yes that another £20bn loss we can attribute to Brexit.

NB "They never wanted our stuff" is nonsense ,they buy huge amounts of our stuff. We just don't make enough stuff that is better/cheaper than they can buy elsewhere.

They make or grow much of the same stuff and in the same seasons.

Trade with the commonwealth was food in different seasons.  It was complementary.

UK exports to the EU flatlined whilst exports to RoW grew.  It does seem somewhat contradictory that trade with the EU has increased since Brexit, given that you lot say it is so difficult people gave up.

[Confusion of VIs]

21 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU has decided to hurt itself unnecessarily? Why is it letting ideology override its interests? Where is the democratic mandate to harm its own citizens? Is this a constitutional system that anyone would want to copy?

The constitutional system decided they want to make a rapid transition to EVs and gave the car firms enough time to prepare for the implementation of the rules. However, they spent a couple of years foot dragging and are now struggling to do what they should already have done and it wil cost them.   

You seen to think democratic decisions should be subject to busness approval. The EU has shown it doesn't agree with that. 

I have lost count of the number of new battery plants announced in Germany and other EU countries over the past months, so the long term impact on them will be minimised. Plus they have a far larger Brexit dividend in the form of Tesla which will soon be producing more cars from the Berlin plant than the entire UK industry.    

NB BYD are currently deciding on a location of several European car/battery plants. They have said that the UK didn't even make the longlist because we are outside the single market.

[Confusion of VIs]

17 minutes ago, kzb said:

@Confusion of VIs

The German car batteries don't meet the rules of origin either.  So a big case of "self harm" all round.

I suppose the intention is to kill the car industry anyhow, whether here or Germany.

 

That take is just plain idiotic. 

[kzb]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That take is just plain idiotic. 

The Germans are going to have import tariffs slapped on their car exports to UK.  They stand to lose more than us.

In the meantime we can export cars to Australia tariff free.

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by kzb

[Confusion of VIs]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

The Germans are going to have import tariffs slapped on their car exports to UK.  They stand to lose more than us.

In the meantime we can export cars to Australia tariff free.

 

THe EU cars will have made in EU batteries, so no tarrifs.

🤦‍♂️ good luck with Australia, competing with Tesla and the Chinese cars.

Also what cars? It's hard to export cars when you have thrown the whole industry under the Brexit bus. 

[thecrashingisles]

12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The constitutional system decided they want to make a rapid transition to EVs and gave the car firms enough time to prepare for the implementation of the rules. However, they spent a couple of years foot dragging and are now struggling to do what they should already have done and it wil cost them.   

You seen to think democratic decisions should be subject to busness approval. The EU has shown it doesn't agree with that. 

I have lost count of the number of new battery plants announced in Germany and other EU countries over the past months, so the long term impact on them will be minimised. Plus they have a far larger Brexit dividend in the form of Tesla which will soon be producing more cars from the Berlin plant than the entire UK industry.    

NB BYD are currently deciding on a location of several European car/battery plants. They have said that the UK didn't even make the longlist because we are outside the single market.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-manufacturing-shrinks-june-demand-weakens-pmi-2023-07-03/

Germany's manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest rate in more than three years in June, with both output and new orders falling, a survey showed on Monday.

The HCOB final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 40.6 from 43.2 in May, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-manufacturing-shrinks-june-demand-weakens-pmi-2023-07-03/

Germany's manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest rate in more than three years in June, with both output and new orders falling, a survey showed on Monday.

The HCOB final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 40.6 from 43.2 in May, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

How is this relevent, Germany is hugly impacted by the loss of cheap (too cheap) Russian energy and struggling to make a permanent transition away from reliance on it.

The fact that you, like the other Brexit apologists, have to highlight every problem the EU is facing shows just how badly Brexit has gone.  

[thecrashingisles]

8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How is this relevent, Germany is hugly impacted by the loss of cheap (too cheap) Russian energy and struggling to make a permanent transition away from reliance on it.

The fact that you, like the other Brexit apologists, have to highlight every problem the EU is facing shows just how badly Brexit has gone.  

It's more that you ignore the problems faced by the EU and imply that any issue faced by the UK would magically vanish if we were still part of the EU.

[Confusion of VIs]

Just now, thecrashingisles said:

It's more that you ignore the problems faced by the EU and imply that any issue faced by the UK would magically vanish if we were still part of the EU.

Some would, although we would not get back all of what we have lost, and we would still have plenty created by a couple of decades of out own sovereign incompetence.  

[kzb]

15 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

THe EU cars will have made in EU batteries, so no tarrifs.

🤦‍♂️ good luck with Australia, competing with Tesla and the Chinese cars.

Also what cars? It's hard to export cars when you have thrown the whole industry under the Brexit bus. 

The materials the batteries are made from have to meet the rules of origin.  Probably no European or UK batteries will do this because most of the chemicals are imported from outside EU or UK.

Car trade with the EU is very one-sided so they will lose out more than us.