FTSE100 wipes out 3 month bull run in 5 days

[Up the spout]

22 hours ago, mynamehere said:

I'm curious if those who think it's a buying opportunity, thought the same in December when it was roughly the same price as now. If you didn't want to buy in then, why now when (it seems to me) more risky, given exposure to finance sector. 

 

Plenty of buyers - traders, hedge funds, pension funds, HNWIs, insiders, etc - smarter than me were buying at those elevated levels (I wasn't) for various reasons, so unless the majority of the sectors that companies in the FTSE represent have all suddenly been downgraded, I'd be surprised if we didn't reach them again at some point in the short or medium term. 

[scottbeard]

22 hours ago, mynamehere said:

I'm curious if those who think it's a buying opportunity, thought the same in December when it was roughly the same price as now. If you didn't want to buy in then, why now when (it seems to me) more risky, given exposure to finance sector. 

Although I have @mynamehere on Ignore, this is an interesting point.

I tend to review my finances twice a year in March and September, so in December was busy buying Christmas presents and not thinking about my ISA or pension.  Simple as that.

[PalmerEldritch]

53 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I think anyone clever enough to be earning 100k is clever enough to understand why the government think they can get away with the outrageous 60% tax trap (and are right - they can).

At the moment I can reduce hours salary sacrifice to avoid it but eventually the fiscal drag it causes will get me.

To be fair I wasn’t even aware of it until I hit it last year. That was a dark day. My fault for not being across the ridiculous tax rules the UK has going on.

The other tax bands like 40% and loss of child benefits at £50k have been trawling in millions of extra tax payers. This government are a disgrace when it comes to trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the very middle class, aspiring voters they are meant to represent. These bands were chosen 10-15 years ago for a fiscal reason and not to increase them in line with inflation has been theft.

[mynamehere]

Can someone please thank Scott for me for his kind reply. 

[PalmerEldritch]

15 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Although I have @mynamehere on Ignore, this is an interesting point.

I tend to review my finances twice a year in March and September, so in December was busy buying Christmas presents and not thinking about my ISA or pension.  Simple as that.

Actually October was the big recent low. I wanted to invest more at that point but didn’t have the cash balance then. There was another smaller dip in January that was also a good entry point. I just added to my portfolio yesterday and think it’s a good long term entry point. I’m talking 5-10 years by the way.

[scottbeard]

5 minutes ago, PalmerEldritch said:

 I just added to my portfolio yesterday and think it’s a good long term entry point. I’m talking 5-10 years by the way.

That's what I felt.  I happened to be in the position of having 21k of pension/ISA money in cash because of things I sold last year, but it's for retirement so it shouldn't be in cash long term.

I decided to invest 7k of it this week, as with a FTSE All Share dividend yield of 3.7% that is above the long term average, suggesting a good time to invest.

This keeps 14k left, so if we do have another even bigger collapse there's plenty for powder for later in the year.

[mynamehere]

Isn’t ftse yielding less than a savings account? And massively down in real terms since 2000?

[Sackboii]

29 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Although I have @mynamehere on Ignore, this is an interesting point.

I tend to review my finances twice a year in March and September, so in December was busy buying Christmas presents and not thinking about my ISA or pension.  Simple as that.

How do you ignore someone ? I can’t see that as an option anywhere like on some other forums..

[mynamehere]

1 minute ago, Sackboii said:

How do you ignore someone ? I can’t see that as an option anywhere like on some other forums..

Hover over their username. 
 

just don’t remind them you have done it every other day as it looks a bit desperate. 

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

How do you ignore someone ? I can’t see that as an option anywhere like on some other forums..

Oh you have to go to your own profile, then click on Ignored Users on some menu, and then type in their name.

I tend to add loads of people to Ignore when I get cross and then sometimes un-Ignore them later (don't tell anyone)

[Sackboii]

5 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Oh you have to go to your own profile, then click on Ignored Users on some menu, and then type in their name.

I tend to add loads of people to Ignore when I get cross and then sometimes un-Ignore them later (don't tell anyone)

Thanks - found it now, I’m sure it wasn’t there last time I was poking around my profile. Maybe I didn’t have enough posts or something..

[Sackboii]

6 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Hover over their username

Possible on a desktop system, not sure on an iPad.. but thanks.

Ive no specific plans to ignore anyone using the ‘ignore user’ method, was just intrigued as several on here bang on about it.. 😄

[mynamehere]

11 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

several on here bang on about it.. 😄

Quite the understatement! 

I think in general blocking improves the experience for both parties so it’s a good feature for a forum and reduces bickering. 
 
however there are some who maintain the passive aggressive reminders designed to antagonise. Ironic really, as some would describe that as trolling!

 

 

 

[PalmerEldritch]

50 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Isn’t ftse yielding less than a savings account? And massively down in real terms since 2000?

Well if you are simple enough to invest in a ftse tracker then you deserve it. It takes some research and skill and some costly mistakes but you need to invest in specific shares and industries within the ftse. Follow trends and cycles, search for good dividend and capital growth possibilities based on sound financials. Reinvest dividends, add capital and watch it grow. Ride out ups and downs but also be ready to sell up the odd dog and reinvest in something better. This isn’t a HODL game like the BTC idiots. It’s a long term investment strategy that needs to be managed closely.

[mynamehere]

35 minutes ago, PalmerEldritch said:

Well if you are simple enough to invest in a ftse tracker then you deserve it. It takes some research and skill and some costly mistakes but you need to invest in specific shares and industries within the ftse. Follow trends and cycles, search for good dividend and capital growth possibilities based on sound financials. Reinvest dividends, add capital and watch it grow. Ride out ups and downs but also be ready to sell up the odd dog and reinvest in something better. This isn’t a HODL game like the BTC idiots. It’s a long term investment strategy that needs to be managed closely.

It's definitely possible and I did enjoy a period of active management, however I just don't have the temperament to control my emotions (mainly panic!) so switched to passive about 5 years ago. 

In the long run, I suspect it's difficult to beat the benchmark as an amateur. By there are of course exceptions

[wighty]

On 3/15/2023 at 6:28 PM, mynamehere said:

I'm curious if those who think it's a buying opportunity, thought the same in December when it was roughly the same price as now. If you didn't want to buy in then, why now when (it seems to me) more risky, given exposure to finance sector. 

Different group. Those that thought it wss a buy outweighed those that thought it was a sell.

Circumstances different now.

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, mynamehere said:

Isn’t ftse yielding less than a savings account? And massively down in real terms since 2000?

FTSE All Share total return index (dividends re-invested) from 1 Jan 2000 to yesterday:  173% return (around 4.5%pa)

CPI inflation from 1 Jan 2000 to yesterday:  173% return (around 4.5%pa): 76% (around 2.5%pa)

So no, it's not massively down in real terms since 2000, but in fact up.

2 hours ago, mynamehere said:

however there are some who maintain the passive aggressive reminders designed to antagonise. Ironic really, as some would describe that as trolling!

Wasn't actually designed to antagonise - but it's the second time you've mentioned it today though, so obviously touched a nerve...

[Nomadd]

3 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

Well if you are simple enough to invest in a ftse tracker then you deserve it.

FTSE100 long term total return is just under 8% per annum. Not too shabby at all for simpletons.

3 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

It takes some research and skill and some costly mistakes but you need to invest in specific shares and industries within the ftse. Follow trends and cycles, search for good dividend and capital growth possibilities based on sound financials. 

And yet over decade plus periods, professionals get beaten 95% of the time by trackers. And of the 5% that remain, most are impossible to determine as their funds were shutdown or subsumed  - nearly always due to underperformance.

 

[Fishfinger]

22 minutes ago, Nomadd said:

And yet over decade plus periods, professionals get beaten 95% of the time by trackers.

 

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.😉

[mynamehere]

2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

FTSE All Share total return index (dividends re-invested) from 1 Jan 2000 to yesterday:  173% return (around 4.5%pa)

CPI inflation from 1 Jan 2000 to yesterday:  173% return (around 4.5%pa): 76% (around 2.5%pa)

So no, it's not massively down in real terms since 2000, but in fact up.

Wasn't actually designed to antagonise - but it's the second time you've mentioned it today though, so obviously touched a nerve...

Fair cop. But I think point stands however without dividends it's been flat for years, so competitiveness of the current yield should be considered.  

Obviously it touched a nerve. Hence my appeal to sackboy to refrain from tagging users he blocks. Luckily he doesn't seem like a knob, so he probably won't do that kind of thing

 

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by mynamehere

[PalmerEldritch]

1 hour ago, Nomadd said:

FTSE100 long term total return is just under 8% per annum. Not too shabby at all for simpletons.

And yet over decade plus periods, professionals get beaten 95% of the time by trackers. And of the 5% that remain, most are impossible to determine as their funds were shutdown or subsumed  - nearly always due to underperformance.

 

Dude my oil shares are up over 150% in 1/1/2 years. 8% is my dividend return I am looking for after a decent capital gain.

[sta100]

8 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

Dude my oil shares are up over 150% in 1/1/2 years. 8% is my dividend return I am looking for after a decent capital gain.

Covid bounce on small mining stocks gave me back that much in a few months.

Dude told me to invest in a tracker a couple of months ago, I politely declined. I like to sit on hands.

[Mandalorian]

On 3/16/2023 at 5:48 PM, mynamehere said:

Isn’t ftse yielding less than a savings account? And massively down in real terms since 2000?

Don't confuse dividends with operating like interest.

Dividends just convert some of your capital into income as the share price falls by the dividend amount when you become eligible to receive the dividend - you are no better off after receiving a dividend compare to before.  (Excluding market movements)

£100 in shares at a 5% annual yield ends up as £95 shares and £5 cash.

 

Interest is new money added to your balance.

£100 in an account at 5% interest ends up as £105.

 

Not to say that cash is better than shares.  (It isn't over the long term)