Climate Change,

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Who was it here who posted this video of the cheapest EV? Made me laugh but also showed this is where the bread and butter will be in 3-8 years. 

 

That was me, but I think the newly released Geometry EX3 at $9,200 would be a more reassuring drive once you hit the M25.  

[PeanutButter]

56 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That was me, but I think the newly released Geometry EX3 at $9,200 would be a more reassuring drive once you hit the M25.  

Indeed! Always been a bit sad that kei cars don’t pass EU safety for here. I eagerly await a Smart Roadster EV type.

[kzb]

September 2021 Was Pleasantly On The Warm Side But Quite Normal

 

September 1729, 1795 and 1865 were warmer, even though those years are a long time ago.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

LOL 

Quote

 

Thanks to Brexit and incompetence,  Boris Johnson is doing more to protect the living world than he ever intended. Less fossil fuel sold, less freight on the roads, less supply,  less consumption. It's not how anyone wanted it to happen, but it takes us in the right direction.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1444551976377782272

 

[PeanutButter]

 

[PeanutButter]

Seems to be one of these headlines every week, but I’m sure it won’t continue getting worse every year…

'Biblical' downpours spark rush hour chaos: Flooding causes severe delays on the Tube and roads are left underwater in London and Essex as severe weather warning issued with up to three inches set to fall today

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10059915/Flooding-causes-delays-Tube-roads-left-underwater-London-Essex.html

[PeanutButter]

Only 120,000? Let’s wait 10 years and see regular displacement figures.

 

[kzb]

4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Only 120,000? Let’s wait 10 years and see regular displacement figures.

 

Firstly let me say I have no knowledge of Shanxi Province.  However that is not the point.

Peanut, when you see stuff you have to engage critical facilities.  Logically, the fact that you have flooding displacing 120,000 people, and that is reported on Twitter, does not in itself mean the climate of Shanxi has changed.

1)  The population, and particularly the population in flood-prone areas, could have increased enormously in the last few decades.

2) In previous decades, China would've been a lot more secretive.  If something like this happened in previous decades, we would've neither known nor cared.

3)  Possibly there are new dams downstream or the land use has been changed.

This may be a record flooding event for the area, caused by climate change, or it may not.  We don't know without detailed information.

[byron78]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Firstly let me say I have no knowledge of Shanxi Province.  However that is not the point.

Peanut, when you see stuff you have to engage critical facilities.  Logically, the fact that you have flooding displacing 120,000 people, and that is reported on Twitter, does not in itself mean the climate of Shanxi has changed.

1)  The population, and particularly the population in flood-prone areas, could have increased enormously in the last few decades.

2) In previous decades, China would've been a lot more secretive.  If something like this happened in previous decades, we would've neither known nor cared.

3)  Possibly there are new dams downstream or the land use has been changed.

This may be a record flooding event for the area, caused by climate change, or it may not.  We don't know without detailed information.

Surely the clue is "record rainfall"?

[PeanutButter]

10 minutes ago, kzb said:

Peanut, when you see stuff you have to engage critical facilities.   

Says the person advocating building walls to counter sea level rises 😂

You never did answer with the details of your calculations for major city flood defenses. For 20cm sea level rise, tell me how much concrete it will take to build a wall for say, New York City? 

It's not about flooding in China (although that does seem to happen a lot these days). It's about paying attention to patterns. Pattern recognition, useful skill. Like the pattern of you derailing and scoffing and posting outdated charts but never quite explaining your motivation here. Are you even a priced out UK homebuyer? Are you a vested interest? 

[kzb]

25 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Surely the clue is "record rainfall"?

Record rainfall for what though?  The one square mile or the whole of China? 

China is a vast country and weather records will be beaten very frequently in localised areas.

Also, how far back do the reliable records go?

[byron78]

5 minutes ago, kzb said:

Record rainfall for what though?  The one square mile or the whole of China? 

China is a vast country and weather records will be beaten very frequently in localised areas.

Also, how far back do the reliable records go?

Much of it is in the article.

Tbh rainfall data is one of those things you'll find most countries have going back to at least the 1970s now. 

That would have been long before it was collected for climate change, and more to monitor nutrient levels and precipitation for farming.

One of those things that can't really be denied (in the same way that we know the planet is getting hotter at a previously unprecedented rate, because any idiot can read a thermometer).

[kzb]

4 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Says the person advocating building walls to counter sea level rises 😂

You never did answer with the details of your calculations for major city flood defenses. For 20cm sea level rise, tell me how much concrete it will take to build a wall for say, New York City? 

It's not about flooding in China (although that does seem to happen a lot these days). It's about paying attention to patterns. Pattern recognition, useful skill. Like the pattern of you derailing and scoffing and posting outdated charts but never quite explaining your motivation here. Are you even a priced out UK homebuyer? Are you a vested interest? 

I never advocated building walls to counter sea level rises.  Although now you mention it, how do the Netherlands keep the water out of their below-sea-level areas?

Sea level has been increasing for decades before anyone thought of man-made climate change.  At the current rate (if there is one) it will be 300 years for a 20cm increase.  Many Pacific islands have actually increased in land area since 1943 so we don't really know what will happen.

Pattern recognition is a very misleading way of evaluating data in this case.  As I said before, in 1974 a massive area of Australia burnt, way bigger than anything we've seen in recent years.  No-one even knew about it until it was over with, let alone cared.  So your "pattern recognition" has made you reach a false conclusion, which is the recent bushfires are unprecedented events, when plainly they are not.  I don't know if these floods are in the same category yet but I suspect they are.

I believe you have been manipulated into a state of "climate anxiety" where every weather event is taken as evidence of future Armageddon.  This is the pattern I am recognising in young people.

 

[kzb]

16 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Much of it is in the article.

Tbh rainfall data is one of those things you'll find most countries have going back to at least the 1970s now. 

That would have been long before it was collected for climate change, and more to monitor nutrient levels and precipitation for farming.

One of those things that can't really be denied (in the same way that we know the planet is getting hotter at a previously unprecedented rate, because any idiot can read a thermometer).

The population of Taiyuan, the capital city of Shanxi, was 622,000 in 1970.  It's 4 million now, six times bigger.

Shanxi is the biggest coal mining province of China, so you should all be celebrating its partial destruction.  Perhaps the floods will succeed in putting out some of their underground coal fires, which contribute vast amounts of CO2 emissions.

I'll come back to your last para when I've more time.

[byron78]

35 minutes ago, kzb said:

 

 

I'll come back to your last para when I've more time.

Unless you're a climate scientist, please don't bother.

 

[PeanutButter]

48 minutes ago, kzb said:

I never advocated building walls to counter sea level rises.  Although now you mention it, how do the Netherlands keep the water out of their below-sea-level areas?

Sea level has been increasing for decades before anyone thought of man-made climate change.  At the current rate (if there is one) it will be 300 years for a 20cm increase.  Many Pacific islands have actually increased in land area since 1943 so we don't really know what will happen.

Pattern recognition is a very misleading way of evaluating data in this case.  As I said before, in 1974 a massive area of Australia burnt, way bigger than anything we've seen in recent years.  No-one even knew about it until it was over with, let alone cared.  So your "pattern recognition" has made you reach a false conclusion, which is the recent bushfires are unprecedented events, when plainly they are not.  I don't know if these floods are in the same category yet but I suspect they are.

I believe you have been manipulated into a state of "climate anxiety" where every weather event is taken as evidence of future Armageddon.  This is the pattern I am recognising in young people.

 

A) At great expense and using constant vigilance and decades of expertise. Lucky they're a wealthy developed country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands#Current_situation_and_future

Quote

 

The Second Delta Committee, or Veerman Committee, officially Staatscommissie voor Duurzame Kustontwikkeling (State Committee for Durable Coast Development) gave its advice in 2008. It expects a sea level rise of 65 to 130 cm by the year 2100. Among its suggestions are:

• to increase the safety norms tenfold and strengthen dikes accordingly,
• to use sand replenishment to broaden the North Sea coast and allow it to grow naturally,
• to use the lakes in the southwest river delta as river water retention basins,
• to raise the water level in the IJsselmeer to provide freshwater.

These measures would cost approximately 1 billion Euro/year.^[13]

 

 

b) Denialist bingo: Mention of Australia in 1974! (Next bingo probably mini ice age)

c) I'm not anxious in the slightest  . But I do enjoy watching armchair experts contort themselves. Remind me again what qualifies you to know more about climate change than NASA? https://climate.nasa.gov/ Have you emailed them with your findings about 1974?

d) Young people? So you're old? Not sure I've seen you engage much with discussions around a house price crash, come to think of it. Why is that?

[kzb]

35 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

A) At great expense and using constant vigilance and decades of expertise. Lucky they're a wealthy developed country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands#Current_situation_and_future

 

b) Denialist bingo: Mention of Australia in 1974! (Next bingo probably mini ice age)

c) I'm not anxious in the slightest  . But I do enjoy watching armchair experts contort themselves. Remind me again what qualifies you to know more about climate change than NASA? https://climate.nasa.gov/ Have you emailed them with your findings about 1974?

d) Young people? So you're old? Not sure I've seen you engage much with discussions around a house price crash, come to think of it. Why is that?

So the Netherlands are confident they can keep out 65 to 130 cm of sea level increase for €1bn/year ?!  That's "peanuts" compared to carbon zero by 2050 !

(b)  You fail to engage with the point, which was, no-one bothered about extreme events in the past.  It was not evidence of anything, it's just what happens.  Now you see every event as a prequel to Armageddon.  It's that psychology I am on about.

(c)  Young people are plainly being scared and some end up with serious anxiety.  What have I said about climate change per se?  Only to read between the lines and get a sense of perspective.

(d)  I'm senior but not retired.  I have indeed discussed house prices in the past, but admittedly other things have been more interesting to me in recent years.

 

 

[kzb]

54 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Unless you're a climate scientist, please don't bother.

 

Well don't join in discussions if your mind is already closed.

Whilst you are there perhaps you can define what a "climate scientist" actually is.

Edited October 11, 2021 by kzb

[byron78]

13 minutes ago, kzb said:

Well don't join in discussions if your mind is already closed.

Whilst you are there perhaps you can define what a "climate scientist" actually is.

There's no discussion for me?

Anyone who works with scientific data daily and knows its various ins and outs is probably enough.

Sadly we have 30+ years of climate change denial on the internet from amateurs and shills etc. Really the latter I'd prefer to avoid.

[kzb]

11 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Anyone who works with scientific data daily and knows its various ins and outs is probably enough.

That's me then.

[byron78]

22 minutes ago, kzb said:

That's me then.

Field?

[kzb]

4 hours ago, byron78 said:

Much of it is in the article.

Tbh rainfall data is one of those things you'll find most countries have going back to at least the 1970s now. 

That would have been long before it was collected for climate change, and more to monitor nutrient levels and precipitation for farming.

The article says

According to state media, 59 national meteorological stations reported the highest ever recorded daily rainfall, and 63 their highest accumulative total over the period.

We don't know how many stations there are in total.

It then says:

The Fen River reached its highest level in four years.

So the highest in four years.  A four-year record, wow.

What I have found out about Shanxi is it is belongs to the temperate continental monsoon climate type.  The rainfall tends to be highly concentrated in one summer month.

 

 

 

 

 

[smash]

On 11/10/2021 at 16:14, kzb said:

That's me then.

So you're like a climate scientist then?

[PeanutButter]

5 minutes ago, smash said:

So you're like a climate scientist then?

😂 Can’t wait to process their ice core samples 😂

🪑👨‍🔬

[kzb]

On 11/10/2021 at 16:37, byron78 said:

Field?

Let's just say I am scientifically qualified, which is one step up on the leader of the Green Party (English), the secretary of state for BEIS (Classics and History) and the Chairman of the UK's independent Committee on Climate Change (History).