Momentum's viral video attacking HPI

[Greg Bowman]

28 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

 

What an odd thing to say.

I hate to shatter your illusions, but some of those people 'getting on with life' are Labour voters, and a few will be supporting momentum.

Because, you know, statistics.

Playing the game doesn't stop you criticising the rules.  

Why odd we all look through filters mine just happens to be a little more up beat even though I want HPC and I am betting on it fairly substantially having STR'd three weeks ago

 

[Greg Bowman]

41 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Amen to that. 

Thank you  apparently its odd to suggest that many younger people are doing ok ( and bloody good luck to them I am sure some are creating businesses competing with mine)

[Gush]

11 hours ago, adarmo said:

Labour. Then in the latest round of political BS they promise free university education to everyone. What they don't do is say how they'll find the £10bn/year that'll cost

Did conservative informed everyone how they were to fund billions allocated for HTB,TermTimeFunding, or lost inherence tax.. Govt don't and won't  spend exactly what they earn in tax. 

 

Living in a magic tree them self and saying Corbyn is wrong to promise a magic tree for young is what is making him even more popular.

[BorrowToLeech]

16 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Agreed but seriously a third? After the gfc the average fell by about 20%. Maybe they would have fallen further, maybe by two thirds.... nobody can really know the answer. I often ask myself though what would they be today if Labour hadn't let rip on it. 

The truth is the Tories might have reflated the bubble and kept prices up but they absolutely did not create the bubble.

True QE has been extended but mostly that was used to purchase gilts although iirc they bought high grade corp bonds. I think the reasoning was that it kept borrowing costs low for the government and also for everyone else by extension. 

Yeah, a third is probably an exaggeration.  The point is that we should have been unwinding the gains since 1997, and instead we added more gains. So maybe a half is a better guess, but it is just a guess obviously.

The 20% figure is irrelevant, that crash was an aborted by bail outs - both under Brown and under Osbrown - and then reversed under Osbrown.

The housing bubble was not purely a Labour creation, that's tribalism, it's not history. 

The housing crisis was a result of:

1. Explicit Tory policy between 1980 and 1996 - the Big Bang deregulation of banks, selling off council housing, the creation of a buy-to-let industry, and deregulation of the building societies.

2. Labour negligence, in not repealing those policies, not regulating the banks, not building council housing, not reigning in the buy to let industry, and keeping rates too low.

3. A worldwide cross-party consensus that light-touch regulation of finance and real estate (essentially those Tory and Labour policies from 1980-2008) was the best economic policy.  

All of these things are on the record, go and look.

Apart from anything else, the housing bubble was worldwide. Brown did not cause prices in China to bubble, Blair didn't cause the bubble in Spain or Los-Angeles.  

I am not a Labour supporter, I am an opponent of this government.  

The Tories still buy the worldwide consensus. Corbyn maybe doesn't, but it's not like he's John Conner born to save humanity from extinction.  All he is, is not that shit again.  

He's also a pretty good motivation for the Tories to get their own act together.  

Ten years ago I was having this same conversation with Labour supporters when I was an opponent of that government, and I was advocating voting Tory.

I can't understand the idea that you pick a team, and stand by then however much they ****** things up. 

I really can't understand the idea that you should base your facts on your politics.

The Tories did create the buy-to-let market, for example.  They said they were going to, and then they did.  Tony Blair was a terrible prime minister, but that doesn't change history. 

 

[london_thirtythree]

Mmm.. I would be careful in assuming the mainstream is still the mainstream of old.

In my experience, the last 7 years coupled with the internet has pushed a lot of people to the margins of policitical opinion.

I know loads of people who don't think House Prices will come down, but also a majority that think they should come down.  An eye opener for me was dealing with a Plumber in 2015 that was moaning about high property prices and BTLers despite being effectively employed by both.

Over the last year particularly with Trump, Brexit, the unexpected general election, there seems an undercurrent of very mainstream desire that things are not quite right - and that high property prices are part of the problem.

To me this takes different forms depending on how you look into the prism - the left want to nationalise everything, the right blame a mysterious SJW establishment, some jump into slightly crazy conspiracy theories, but what unites is a general feeling that the status quo broke a while back and are looking for something to take its place.

I have a young very right winger in my office and he predicted that Jeremy was picking up big support and could win, I laughed it off that middle England would always win out.. and then you realise how out of touch you are!

Oddly there was part of said right winger that was quietly happy due to the Trumpist smash-the-corrupt-system side of seeing Corbyn upset the apple carts - despite Corbin being the polar opposite of most of everything else.

There is a strange mood out there, cultivated by a generation without assets and without a major stake, and think this might slowly becoming the new mainstream in a bigger way than most (including myself) appreciate.

[BorrowToLeech]

12 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

Why odd we all look through filters mine just happens to be a little more up beat even though I want HPC and I am betting on it fairly substantially having STR'd three weeks ago

 

Odd to me, and therefore interesting.  Wasn't meant to be an insult!

 

[goldbug9999]

22 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

I want HPC and I am betting on it fairly substantially having STR'd three weeks ago

Balls of steel, good luck to you.

[BorrowToLeech]

20 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

Thank you  apparently its odd to suggest that many younger people are doing ok ( and bloody good luck to them I am sure some are creating businesses competing with mine)

Thing is, I don't dispute this, i just take it for granted.  Statistics and that.

In fact, I'm doing pretty well financially (although, sadly, I'm not that young anymore). 

So yeah, divergent filters, but that's also interesting. 

[spyguy]

17 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

Yeah, a third is probably an exaggeration.  The point is that we should have been unwinding the gains since 1997, and instead we added more gains. So maybe a half is a better guess, but it is just a guess obviously.

The 20% figure is irrelevant, that crash was an aborted by bail outs - both under Brown and under Osbrown - and then reversed under Osbrown.

The housing bubble was not purely a Labour creation, that's tribalism, it's not history. 

The housing crisis was a result of:

1. Explicit Tory policy between 1980 and 1996 - the Big Bang deregulation of banks, selling off council housing, the creation of a buy-to-let industry, and deregulation of the building societies.

<snip>

All of these things are on the record, go and look.

Apart from anything else, the housing bubble was worldwide. Brown did not cause prices in China to bubble, Blair didn't cause the bubble in Spain or Los-Angeles.  

 

 

On you point 1) - BS. The was a Lawson boom from 87ish to 90ish. The blew up, interest rates were raised, Housing fell. A lot.

By 1996 all the real gains in housing i nthe 80s had been rolled back. The LTE of housing was the lowest it had been since forever.

BTL was created in he late 90s. The AST did not create BTL. Allowing indidvuals to borrow money at way too lor IRs i.e. non comem4vial rates, and for iO loans too FFS, did. That was Brown..

Deregulating the BS was gormless. Mainly as they were a bunch of idiots - see Halifax, NR, BandB, Abbey National etc etc etc.

BS should have been deregulated but with stronger capital rules and transparency. But Brown got rid of all those, so he could have direct control of bank lending.

The wasnt a worldwide housing bubble. There were bubbles in the UK and US, where poltiical and regulatory bodies bought into that loon Breenspan's 'Im sure banks know what they are doing' BS. They dont, they didnt, they blew up.

Brown blew the biggest bubble that the UK has ever seen.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

 

What an odd thing to say.

I hate to shatter your illusions, but some of those people 'getting on with life' are Labour voters, and a few will be supporting momentum.

Because, you know, statistics.

Playing the game doesn't stop you criticising the rules.  

Mos Momentum people Ive met - and Ive met a few -tend to be non working, working i ntye 3rd sector or public sector union types.

Support for Momentum is pretty tiny outside of those groups.

And Momentum itself is  nothign more that several 10k of shouty morons. It is nowhere near a massmovement.

[BorrowToLeech]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

On you point 1) - BS. The was a Lawson boom from 87ish to 90ish. The blew up, interest rates were raised, Housing fell. A lot.

By 1996 all the real gains in housing i nthe 80s had been rolled back. The LTE of housing was the lowest it had been since forever.

BTL was created in he late 90s. The AST did not create BTL. Allowing indidvuals to borrow money at way too lor IRs i.e. non comem4vial rates, and for iO loans too FFS, did. That was Brown..

Deregulating the BS was gormless. Mainly as they were a bunch of idiots - see Halifax, NR, BandB, Abbey National etc etc etc.

BS should have been deregulated but with stronger capital rules and transparency. But Brown got rid of all those, so he could have direct control of bank lending.

The wasnt a worldwide housing bubble. There were bubbles in the UK and US, where poltiical and regulatory bodies bought into that loon Breenspan's 'Im sure banks know what they are doing' BS. They dont, they didnt, they blew up.

Brown blew the biggest bubble that the UK has ever seen.

The Tories did create the buy-to-let industry, through the AST.  AST and BTL are effectively synonyms and this was the explicitly stated aim of the policy.

This is also the position of the buy-to-let industry themselves.

It is possible that we would never have had a bubble without the Labour government, we will never know because it didn't happen.

It's unlikely, because Bush was in power in the US, followed the same economic policies and had the same bubble, but it is possible.

What did actually happen in the real world is what I described. It involved a concensus on economic policy between both Labour and conservative parties.

Blaming one or the other is pure tribalism.

[iamnumerate]

11 hours ago, spyguy said:

Dick as he is, Gidiot recuded the budget defict from ~12% - a figure so insanely bad you wonder why people have not hung Brown - to -5%.

The fact, after 5% of cuts, we still have a long way to go just shows how badly Labour fkced up.

And no, its not becuase Austerity does notwork. Its bercause the budget deficit was so big.

Gidiot should have have moved hard and fast on tax credits and working age benefts esp. housing benefit.

+1

On the subject of momentum they have recently attacked nepotism, a bit unfortunate considering -

https://order-order.com/2017/07/27/seb-corbyn-embarrassed-by-momentum-video-mocking-nepotism/

Quote

Seb Corbyn, son of Jez, is employed by John McDonnell. He “got his job through his father”, to coin a phrase. Then there is Laura Murray, a Shadow Cabinet adviser who is the daughter of Labour’s communist campaign chief Andrew Murray. John Prescott’s son David obviously got his job in the Leader’s Office on merit. And don’t get us started on how many of Jezza’s top team went to the same Winchester private school.

 

[iamnumerate]

34 minutes ago, london_thirtythree said:

Mmm.. I would be careful in assuming the mainstream is still the mainstream of old.

In my experience, the last 7 years coupled with the internet has pushed a lot of people to the margins of policitical opinion.

I know loads of people who don't think House Prices will come down, but also a majority that think they should come down.  An eye opener for me was dealing with a Plumber in 2015 that was moaning about high property prices and BTLers despite being effectively employed by both.

Over the last year particularly with Trump, Brexit, the unexpected general election, there seems an undercurrent of very mainstream desire that things are not quite right - and that high property prices are part of the problem.

To me this takes different forms depending on how you look into the prism - the left want to nationalise everything, the right blame a mysterious SJW establishment, some jump into slightly crazy conspiracy theories, but what unites is a general feeling that the status quo broke a while back and are looking for something to take its place.

I have a young very right winger in my office and he predicted that Jeremy was picking up big support and could win, I laughed it off that middle England would always win out.. and then you realise how out of touch you are!

Oddly there was part of said right winger that was quietly happy due to the Trumpist smash-the-corrupt-system side of seeing Corbyn upset the apple carts - despite Corbin being the polar opposite of most of everything else.

There is a strange mood out there, cultivated by a generation without assets and without a major stake, and think this might slowly becoming the new mainstream in a bigger way than most (including myself) appreciate.

Very true, although just because the majority want cheaper house prices doesn't mean we will get them - the majority have wanted less immigration for 16 years and that has not happened.

[BorrowToLeech]

17 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Mos Momentum people Ive met - and Ive met a few -tend to be non working, working i ntye 3rd sector or public sector union types.

Support for Momentum is pretty tiny outside of those groups.

And Momentum itself is  nothign more that several 10k of shouty morons. It is nowhere near a massmovement.

I have no idea, I've never met any as far as I know.

I have met plenty of hard working successful Corbyn supporters, especially now due to the general disillusionment with the status quo, but more generally because some people are able to divorce their politics from their career, which was my point.

Edit: I am not a momentum supporter, except perhaps on a case-by-case basis.

 

Edited July 28, 2017 by DrBuyToLeech

[iamnumerate]

Even for Labour this is unbelievable hypocrisy.

https://order-order.com/2017/07/27/seb-corbyn-embarrassed-by-momentum-video-mocking-nepotism/

Quote

Seb Corbyn, son of Jez, is employed by John McDonnell. He “got his job through his father”, to coin a phrase. Then there is Laura Murray, a Shadow Cabinet adviser who is the daughter of Labour’s communist campaign chief Andrew Murray. John Prescott’s son David obviously got his job in the Leader’s Office on merit. And don’t get us started on how many of Jezza’s top team went to the same Winchester private school. Well done Momentum, slow clap.

 

[spyguy]

3 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

I have no idea, I've never met any.

I have met plenty of hard working successful Corbyn supporters, especially now due to the general disillusionment with the status quo  but more generally because some people are able to divorce their politics from their career.

 

Oh I have.

I come from a blue collary labour background.

Ive grewup/socialised with people who had the first hand experience of close to  Brown's lunacy.

IMomentum are just Miltiants middle class kids.

[iamnumerate]

Just now, fru-gal said:

I know Momentum/Labour are hypocrites but at least they got the bit about house prices right.

Really did they apologies for making people pay more?  I worked out that if interest rates don't rise (a big if) I will pay £105k more because of Blair boom by the time my mortgage finishes.

[crashmonitor]

It's always been thus with far left leaders, multi-milluonares leading their plebite army.

It's not how much you are worth but how you got there.

Like the Victorians you are shunned if you have gotten there in trade...ie. you are a wealth extractor.

Emily Thornberry...Human Rights Lawyer and property....correct route.

[Agentimmo]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Mos Momentum people Ive met - and Ive met a few -tend to be non working, working i ntye 3rd sector or public sector union types.

Support for Momentum is pretty tiny outside of those groups.

And Momentum itself is  nothign more that several 10k of shouty morons. It is nowhere near a massmovement.

You could say the same about the VI's who have pumped the property bubble over the last 20yrs. 

A few 1000 well heeled individuals in the City paying their political friends to implement policy that has been fantastic for them, but terrible for the majority.

A small group, with influence. I don't know much about Momentum or its tactics, but size isn't important if you have a great execution plan. Social media etc.....

[Si1]

It's more important that the point is being made. That the non boomer perspective is now being broadcast.

[Greg Bowman]

39 minutes ago, Si1 said:

It's more important that the point is being made. That the non boomer perspective is now being broadcast.

It's not a non boomer perspective it's typical badly thought out socialist claptrap 

what's particularly funny is the nepotism bit when Corbyns son works in McDonnells office 

you couldn't make it up !

[Si1]

2 hours ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

The Tories did create the buy-to-let industry, through the AST.  AST and BTL are effectively synonyms and this was the explicitly stated aim of the policy.

This is also the position of the buy-to-let industry themselves.

It is possible that we would never have had a bubble without the Labour government, we will never know because it didn't happen.

It's unlikely, because Bush was in power in the US, followed the same economic policies and had the same bubble, but it is possible.

What did actually happen in the real world is what I described. It involved a concensus on economic policy between both Labour and conservative parties.

Blaming one or the other is pure tribalism.

Labour haven't been in power since 2010. Current situation is primarily Osborne's doing. Strikes me as similar to Lawson's boom.

[iamnumerate]

2 hours ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

The Tories did create the buy-to-let industry, through the AST.  AST and BTL are effectively synonyms and this was the explicitly stated aim of the policy.

This is also the position of the buy-to-let industry themselves.

It is possible that we would never have had a bubble without the Labour government, we will never know because it didn't happen.

It's unlikely, because Bush was in power in the US, followed the same economic policies and had the same bubble, but it is possible.

What did actually happen in the real world is what I described. It involved a concensus on economic policy between both Labour and conservative parties.

Blaming one or the other is pure tribalism.

What about if we blame both is that ok?

[adarmo]

3 hours ago, Gush said:

Did conservative informed everyone how they were to fund billions allocated for HTB,TermTimeFunding, or lost inherence tax.. Govt don't and won't  spend exactly what they earn in tax. 

 

Living in a magic tree them self and saying Corbyn is wrong to promise a magic tree for young is what is making him even more popular.

Do not confuse debiting a P&L with debiting a balance sheet. One is an expense, the other an asset. HTB is only an expense if the government need to impair the value of it's share in the houses it's part funded. Spending £10bn on tuition fees because an earlier Labour party got 50% of people going off to uni on the other hand is most definitely an expense. 

[Greg Bowman]

3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Oh I have.

I come from a blue collary labour background.

Ive grewup/socialised with people who had the first hand experience of close to  Brown's lunacy.

IMomentum are just Miltiants middle class kids.

+1 I completed a 4 year apprenticship for Lucas in a factory gasp for those militant momentum middle class PPE goons !!

The labour movement has for thirty years been nothing do with promoting the rights of the workers, it is full of middle class goons no different from the tories