Peter Hun Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 On 10/02/2022 at 20:44, Peter Hun said: Don't understand inflation, do you. In case people don't know, historically for Teslas you pay LEAST of 1) Price at order 2) Price of a NEW order at the delivery time So if price goes £50k to £55k you pay £50k. If it goes £50k to £45k, you pay £45k. So, I'd suggest one (or more) £100 reservation fee is a great hedge for car-price inflation. Resale price can even be higher than new prices due to scarcity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Peter Hun said: Interesting, thanks. Biggies seem to be Who - Start - GWh/year Tesla - n/a (my guess 2023, maybe 2022) - 120 Northvolt - 2023 - 60 Samsung SDI - 2018 - 50 Italvolt - 2024 - 45 Freyr -2023 -  43 Morrom? - 2023 - 42  Lots of facilities at stated rates of 20-40 GWh per year and lots of small ones. For context, 120 GWh at 85kwh/car would be 1.4 million vehicles. These would all be 4680 cells (high nickel). LFP cells (for Standard Range models) would presumably come from CATL and others and most likely prismatic (fine for LFP). CATL supply Tesla with fully formed battery packs - so no assembly required.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 20 hours ago, NorthamptonBear said: Interesting, thanks. Biggies seem to be Who - Start - GWh/year Tesla - n/a (my guess 2023, maybe 2022) - 120 Northvolt - 2023 - 60 Samsung SDI - 2018 - 50 Italvolt - 2024 - 45 Freyr -2023 -  43 Morrom? - 2023 - 42  Lots of facilities at stated rates of 20-40 GWh per year and lots of small ones. For context, 120 GWh at 85kwh/car would be 1.4 million vehicles. These would all be 4680 cells (high nickel). LFP cells (for Standard Range models) would presumably come from CATL and others and most likely prismatic (fine for LFP). CATL supply Tesla with fully formed battery packs - so no assembly required.  CATL are building a plant in Poland, given they are the are the biggest manufacturer in the world i think they should get a significant mention. The total is 775gw, so thats about 13million cars at 60kwhr. There is more announcements incoming i expect. Teslas figures assume the same 12% market share they currently hold  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 23 hours ago, Peter Hun said: CATL are building a plant in Poland, given they are the are the biggest manufacturer in the world i think they should get a significant mention. The total is 775gw, so thats about 13million cars at 60kwhr. There is more announcements incoming i expect. Teslas figures assume the same 12% market share they currently hold  I was going by figures in the image, CATL is at 24GWh/year in Germany in the image, doesn't mention Poland. I don't think the image's source was published. One of the sites mentioned in news articles is Jawor which is 190 miles from Tesla in Gruenheide. https://www.asiantechpress.com/tesla-battery-supplier-catl-says-no-comment-on-rumored-polish-plant.html Quote Asian Tech Press (Dec 22) -- Tesla battery supplier Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) said on Wednesday it would not comment on rumors of building a factory in Poland. Polish media reported on the same day that China's CATL might build a battery factory worth up to 2 billion euros in the country and had visited two sites for this purpose. The Chinese battery maker visited sites at Jawor town in south-western Poland, and Stalowa Wola city in southeastern Poland. And it's said most of the factory's output will be shipped to Germany, where Tesla has a car factory. Tesla's 120Gwh at your suggested 60kWh/pack would be 2 million cars (I assume 1.4 million cars at 85kWh per car) for Tesla's own high-power nickel cells and then suppliers can supply more LFP cells (probably 60kWh per car initially). CATL did a $9 billion raise as part of their plan - "CATL plans to reach a global production capacity of 230 GWh by the end of the year." (2021 article) - https://electrek.co/2021/08/13/tesla-battery-supplier-catl-raising-9-billion-accelerate-production/ and located a big factory close to and reportedly dedicated to Tesla Shanghai, rapidly getting up to speed. Recent article, top 3 battery makers are Tesla suppliers, BYD rumoured to be a new Tesla supplier for structural LFP Blade batteries - https://www.electrive.com/2022/02/08/catl-outgrows-the-battery-competition/ "at the end of the year" presumably means end of 2021 as this is a Feb 2022 article. So the vast majority (65-74%) of world battery supply comes from Tesla suppliers. Various formats:- LFP - CATL Prismatic, BYD Blade High-nickel/manganese 2170 (3, most Y) 18650 (S, X) 4680 (Texas now/Berlin Y now or later). Tesla is helping suppliers ramp up production of the suppliers' own 4680 cells (Tesla open up patents and various parts of Tesla are world leaders in automation/battery line manufacturing systems (resources/skills no longer available on the open market) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Grohmann_Automation / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc. Quote From 2015 to 2020, Tesla went on an acquisition spree, buying a handful of little-known companies: Riviera Tool, Grohmann Engineering, Perbix, Compass Automation, Hibar Systems, and German ATW Automation to advance Tesla's expertise in automation, along with Maxwell Technologies and SilLion to add to Tesla's abilities in battery technology Tesla don't buy car brands, they buy undervalued essential/world-class engineering companies, give the engineers the keys to excel:- long-term stability, share options (historically worth millions per employee), budget, freedoms and purpose (mission to sustainable future). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) China used car prices rarely discussed. As so many cars for UK market are built in China*, but there are still cheaper brands that haven't exported yet, seeing how locals rate their used vs new cars might be interesting - especially in a culture where often "used" housing is valued much less than "unused" (hence empty "investment" flats). https://carnewschina.com/2022/02/21/used-tesla-cost/ Quote The new energy [electric] vehicle market has some challenges but grows anyway. Many potential consumers of second-hand vehicles used to think that new energy used cars have problems with battery performance and their value retention rate are low. In December 2021 value retention rate of 3-year ICE cars in China was approximately 65%; this number for 3-year EV was only 43%. But in January 2022 value retention rate rose significantly to 49.5%. This growth was caused by the reduction of the EV subsidies in China, chip shortages, and supply challenges. ... Consumers prefer to buy used cars because it is more convenient in their point of view – after paying the money you don’t have to wait several months. * Volvo, BMW, Tesla, VW, Polestar, MG, probably Mercedes (20% owned by BAIC and Li Shifu directly plus other Chinese investors/banks) and other car brands. They keep this kind of info quiet. Tesla is the only western company to run their own factories, the others are Chinese owned or joint ventures where Chinese companies are probably in charge. You can use VIN decoders to find out where your car was made. Might be a few surprises:- https://vindecoder.eu/vin (not used but has a nice explanation) Edited February 22, 2022 by NorthamptonBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Here's Why Killing Off the IC Engine Will Be Painful & Costly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVZw7ywHJnk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: Here's Why Killing Off the IC Engine Will Be Painful & Costly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVZw7ywHJnk Yep. Lots of new jobs will be created in the EV sector. I would pay someone £10 to come round once a month and spend a few hours cleaning my white Tesla seats to a high standard. (I didn't say they would be high paid skilled jobs). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 A year ago I thought I wanted a Tesla, but now I realise that Tesla owners are like baby bores. Only more boring. So I'll pick from the best of the rest in the 2030s when the hybrid we get next is ready to go. Unless people have stopped banging on about how amazing & great Tesla & Musk are by then.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 8 hours ago, markyh said: Yep. Lots of new jobs will be created in the EV sector. I would pay someone £10 to come round once a month and spend a few hours cleaning my white Tesla seats to a high standard. (I didn't say they would be high paid skilled jobs). Careful they might break them. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9648195/Tesla-issues-two-U-S-recalls-address-seat-belt-issues.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 3 hours ago, hotblack42 said: A year ago I thought I wanted a Tesla, but now I realise that Tesla owners are like baby bores. Only more boring. So I'll pick from the best of the rest in the 2030s when the hybrid we get next is ready to go. Unless people have stopped banging on about how amazing & great Tesla & Musk are by then.. Hybrids are a pointless distraction, in real life their petrol consumption is no better than ICEs and they actually pollute more. The EU is in the process of changing their fuel economy and emissions figures to reflect real life rather than lab conditions. Once implemented his will kill them off pretty quickly, happily their sales are already are already starting to collapse in favour of EVs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 On 27/02/2022 at 12:33, Confusion of VIs said: Hybrids are a pointless distraction, in real life their petrol consumption is no better than ICEs and they actually pollute more. The EU is in the process of changing their fuel economy and emissions figures to reflect real life rather than lab conditions. Once implemented his will kill them off pretty quickly, happily their sales are already are already starting to collapse in favour of EVs. Real world range figures will be a blow to Tesla. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Real world range figures will be a blow to Tesla. They will still be at the top of the EV pile in terms of range, even above VW's with 20% bigger batteries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1574189/cargo-ship-fire-luxury-cars-sinks-bently-audi-porsche I wonder if any tesla's were on board. Fire must of started somewhere. Although they said luxury cars so probably something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 I wonder if sunken ships full of ev's still on fire probably is good for net zero. 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 On 27/02/2022 at 12:33, Confusion of VIs said: in real life their petrol consumption is no better than ICEs Perhaps in your real life mate but my runaround just shuttles to the station, supermarket & Park run & would run entirely on battery if it was a hybrid. The diesel SUV does the dump runs, social runs with 4 adults, collects building materials & does 5-6 long runs from Sussex to Cornwall a year. We're doing about 7000 miles pa across 2 cars & a motorbike. Probable drop to 1 car + bike in the spring, for the reduced administration as much as cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 22 hours ago, Peter Hun said: Real world range figures will be a blow to Tesla. I have never meet anyone who drives a Tesla that complains about range, the Supercharger network means no range worries.  In the first year I had mine I drove over 20,000miles I am now over 50,000 miles and have never had to use a public charger, just as well as I don't even have a charge cable.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: I have never meet anyone who drives a Tesla that complains about range, the Supercharger network means no range worries.  In the first year I had mine I drove over 20,000miles I am now over 50,000 miles and have never had to use a public charger, just as well as I don't even have a charge cable.  You will find 99% of 50kw -350kw rapid chargers are "tethered" and have their own chunky DC cables already attached. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 On 03/03/2022 at 10:39, Confusion of VIs said: I have never meet anyone who drives a Tesla that complains about range, the Supercharger network means no range worries.   Have you met anyone who complains about range? Stop bs ing. The Supercharger network us non existent in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 hours ago, Peter Hun said: Have you met anyone who complains about range? Stop bs ing. The Supercharger network us non existent in the UK. Eh? you were saying a change to the range figures would hurt Tesla, I am saying there is no issue. The non existent Supercharger network has let me cover +50k miles without ever using a public charger, you can enlighten yourself here. https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/trips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 10 hours ago, Peter Hun said: Have you met anyone who complains about range? Stop bs ing. The Supercharger network us non existent in the UK. Lol, the Tesla SC network is 15% of the entire UK Rapid charging network (and just for us Tesla owners) and one of the biggest and most competitively priced networks in it's own right. One day you will own an EV and actually know something about them more than you see on YouTube. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 An ultra-cheap electric car conversion kit is FINALLY here! Quote We’ve showcased plenty of EV conversions on the channel before, but up until now they’ve mostly been high-end, beautifully refurbished classics. In this episode, Jack heads to France to investigate the entry-level of EV conversion. For €5,000 after government subsidies, a company by the name of Transition One claims it can turn your old banger into a no fuss, no-emissions electric car. Is this the answer to overpriced new cars? Could this be the key to accelerating EV uptake? Check out the episode to find out.  Quote   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: An ultra-cheap electric car conversion kit is FINALLY here!   I wonder who gets ownership of the ICE components like engines etc that can be resold if good, them or the customer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 6 hours ago, markyh said: I wonder who gets ownership of the ICE components like engines etc that can be resold if good, them or the customer? good point, also on the parts front, I think its worth mentioning that the new 15kw battery is a big part of that £5-7k & still has quite a bit of value if undamaged when car is written off in accident or just wear out, so batt. can be transferred to another vehicle . also wortha mention if it works out ...  for those without driveways  A fantastic new startup idea! @kerbocharge are producing a solution where u can install a thin gutter within any pavement allow you to safety run a cable from terrace house to street! If want to learn more click link to register interest https://kerbocharge.com @EVAEOfficial  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbob Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 On 19/03/2022 at 09:24, Saving For a Space Ship said: An ultra-cheap electric car conversion kit is FINALLY here!   This is long overdue. I wonder how much longer it will be before we can get garages in the UK installing these. Expect masses of red tape to make it more difficult that it is. Think it needs a bigger battery option though, otherwise it can only really be a second car. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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