Guest Fiddlesticks Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 (edited) It states in the report that the regional numbers are non-MA as well, but this is inconsistant with the numbers published. Unfortunately, I suspect the region numbers ARE mix-adjusted. Thanks Wrongmove. This seems to be a VERY important point, and a serious cockup by the Halifax if they say the regional figures aren't mix adjusted when in fact they are. The difference is between this set of figures representing the beginning of a crash or representing the market reviving from the bottom upwards! Better put the corks back in the champagne bottles for now. Edited January 27, 2006 by Fiddlesticks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Thanks Wrongmove. This seems to be a VERY important point, and a serious cockup by the Halifax if they say the regional figures aren't mix adjusted when in fact they are. The difference is between this set of figures representing the beginning of a crash or representing the market reviving from the bottom upwards! Exactly I think the confusion comes from the fact that table 1 in the report is split over two pages. The footnote says "table 1 and table 2 are non-MA", but I think they mean table 1 part 1 and table 1 part 2 are non-MA, whereas table 2 IS MA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bandylegs Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Thanks Wrongmove. This seems to be a VERY important point, and a serious cockup by the Halifax if they say the regional figures aren't mix adjusted when in fact they are. The difference is between this set of figures representing the beginning of a crash or representing the market reviving from the bottom upwards! Better put the corks back in the champagne bottles for now. I think that if they did represent a revival at the bottom then that is exactly how that they would have reported them. However, one swallow doesn't make a whore. (Sorry). Let’s hope for more negative reports in the coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 (edited) Have you noticed how this report has been realised on the quiet? Also, it has been realised 16 days after the first report where everyone has forgotten the headline figure. Should we e-mail certain media outlets (BBC) asking them to mention the top movers in the next Halifax story? I suppose you mean "released"? !?! You're not missing anything. But the BBC and Newspapers are... This is what HPCers dreamed about (and to be fair predicted with hope) this time last year... It has come true. The House Price "Modest Re-Adjustment" is here! The WORLD'S BIGGEST EVER PYRAMID SELLING SCAM ["Housing Market"] IS CRASHING DOWN!!.... Edited January 27, 2006 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enworb Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Prices in my home town of Slough have dropped 3% from £218k to £211K but I think the drop has been caused by the large amount of apartments being built in the last couple of years. At the end of the day, flats cost less than houses. Does anyone else think that the type of properties have affected the HPI in their area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fiddlesticks Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Prices in my home town of Slough have dropped 3% from £218k to £211K but I think the drop has been caused by the large amount of apartments being built in the last couple of years. At the end of the day, flats cost less than houses. Does anyone else think that the type of properties have affected the HPI in their area? See the discussion above on mix adjusting. Unfortunately looking again at the Halifax data it does seem that in the SE cheaper houses are selling in greater quantities rather than that house prices are dropping. One possible positive spin is that high-end houses are NOT selling? That would explain why average SE prices have fallen without having to assume an FTB revival? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boredwaiting Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 The annual rate of house price inflation in the South West is now -1.9%. However, over the past five years prices have increased by 68%. This is definately better news - but we would need a 40% drop in house prices to get back to where we were.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyB Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 The scary place to be at the moment in birmingham/west midlands is Flats: Bungalows 69,083 184,624 167% Detached 93,877 264,406 182% Flat & Mais. 35,436 120,510 240% Semi-Detached 52,517 148,283 182% Terraced 41,434 123,859 199% who wants to live in a flat over a house, seriously, good for city night life, or work locations? but over that, the nuisance of them!... you just dont realise this until you live in them. difficulty of visitors parking, and access. I mean simply washing your car? ridiculous, how can they compare? im looking forward to 25% reductions in flat prices this year... knock on panic effect for others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 I aint letting this go!!!! I am sending it to Watchdog! Whats the best financial ombudsman I can send it to? Is the press complaints commission applicable also, as they are releasing it for publication (anyone got an e-mail?), what about a Newspaper although I know they are also a VI! Please let me know - I will also send it to Halifax and let them see that I have CC'd all these people. I personally cant see them giving me a mortgage but I really dont give a f00k - we need to expose these LIARS!! TB I think Halifax may have got this about right – the earnings distribution is skewed which results in the mean being about 20% above the median measure. Admittedly the ONS website is not a showcase for clarity and transparency, but it does look as though the figure for male full-time (>2 years) [used by HBOS for their price-to-earnings ratio by way of historical accident] should be somewhere around £30k in 2005. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beadbo Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Halifax Leeds down 3% Nationwide up 3.4%! I am seeing falls in sold and asking prices, though having said that Leeds has a long way to go before prices are reasonable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 I thought I would bump this thread to show the excellent work done by mjdazeley: Halifax Regional Breakdown - on a Map! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theChuz Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 I thought I would bump this thread to show the excellent work done by mjdazeley: Halifax Regional Breakdown - on a Map! Good call, i completly missed that map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomWalk Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Giving the thread a bump, some ODPM numbers now.... See http://boards.fool.co.uk/Messages.asp?bid=51402&mid=9900904 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Not in London. And I'm stunned to discover that the average salary is 45K in London. That seems absurdly high to me. South West Index (seasonally adjusted) 548.2 Quarterly Change (Q4 2005 on Q3) 2005 -0.4% Annual Change (Q4 2005 on Q4 2004) -1.9% Standardised Average House Price in the South West (seasonally adjusted) £181,257 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomWalk Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Mean and median ODPM HPI maps now online, with animation: http://www.mjdazeley.com/ODPM.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Bear Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Brilliant and thanks very much! Doesn't look much like new boom developing does it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Mean and median ODPM HPI maps now online, with animation: http://www.mjdazeley.com/ODPM.html Nice one mjd. I have been trying to find median prices - medians are often more useful than means. For England and Wales, mean price = £195k, median price = £160k, about 18% less. More than 6x median male salary though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomWalk Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 2005 Q5 should be out in the next week or so - they'll get added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teddyboy Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 (edited) 2005 Q5 should be out in the next week or so - they'll get added. Whilst I am IMPRESSED by your skills on producing these maps. I do have to question how there was 5 QUARTERS in 2005???? Bit like the true story of Jason McAteer: Went to a pizza parlour and the girls said to him would he like like it cut into quarters or eights? His reply? Youd better make it quarters, there's no way I'd be able to eat 8 pieces TRUE STORY - HONESTLY! Edited March 26, 2006 by teddyboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomWalk Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 McAteer never stuck me as the sharpest tool in the box. The ODPM data certainly feel like they're Q5 - they take so long to come out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 For discussion on prices in Cambridge, I've copied the results in the appropriate bit of the forum http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=20299 glad I STRed last year. Bought my first funds (shares) in January and there are up 25% in 3 months. Cambridge property prices, though, are falling. Do I feel smug, or what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Mean and median ODPM HPI maps now online, with animation: http://www.mjdazeley.com/ODPM.html A picture paints a thousand words.......it's looking cold out there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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