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Jason

Halifax Regional Breakdown - Year End 2005

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• The average price of a house in the West Midlands is currently £160,832. This compares to the UK average of £169,901.

• The annual rate of house price inflation in the West Midlands is 2.0% - below the UK average (5.1%).

• Prices in the region increased by 0.8% in Q4 2005.

• Greater London prices are now 1.6 times higher than those in the West Midlands compared with 2.0 times in Q4 2001.

• House prices in the West Midlands have risen by 36% over the past three years, ranking the region seventh out of the 12 UK regions.

• Halesowen saw the fastest rise in the region with an 8% increase in the past year.

My experience has been far greater falls with most EAs marking prices down. Halifax figures are a rough guide to show how bad things are though.

Nationwide say 0.8% up which seems little closer to reality. The chart is wonderful and shows a crash scenario with a steep slope headed straight down! They predict up to -2% for 2006. Glad I am renting with 4.08% on my STR funds making a real return of over 6% if Nationwide are right.

Down 4.2% in my area (Wychavon near Stratford). My guess is more likely 10%.

Edited by Realistbear

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The counties chart is very revealing. Very exciting to see that Warwickshire, which I am particularly interested in, was - 6% YoY.

As a broad generalisation counties in N. Ireland, Scotland and North and N. West saw rises. W. and E. Midlands, E. Anglia, and S. East and S.West saw falls. All in nominal prices - so knock inflation off the rises and add it to the falls.

These figures seem pretty much confirm the anecdotes and impressions reported on the site.

To me they very much have the feel of 1990 as the wave of falls in the South is cancelled by a continuing boom in the North. But we all know what happened next!

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Not in London.

And I'm stunned to discover that the average salary is 45K in London. That seems absurdly high to me.

Ignore the "index" figure which hides the trend emerging on an area by area basis.

Look instead at the table of actual borough by borough figures yoy. The London index figure will be hugely skewed by the massive price increases in real ****hole areas like Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Lambeth etc - poorer areas are the usual "late arrivals" to any property boom and fastest to fall eventually. Strip these out and for the traditionally "desireable" London boroughs you are left with prices between 6% down and 2% up. Wandsworth, Richmond and Kingston all 3% down which is telling. This is consistent with stories on this board - and these are yoy change figures for the WHOLE of 2005. The story next year will be worse as the increased reductions later in the year filter through and the older higher prices drop out.

eg A 100% mortgaged FTB of a £270,000 2 bed flat in TTRTR's neck of the woods (SW11) in late 2004 is probably now in negative equity to the tune of £8,100 (and sliding towards that stamp duty threshold). The only problem at the moment is that the FTB doesn't know it yet...

We need these real Halifax reductions in the news!

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These figures are Fecked. The regional breakdown is ugly but when you look at the national breakdown the picture looks towards a stagnant and dropping market with scotland and n Ireland keeping the averages propped up.

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Interesting to note this:

Figures include properties sold for £1 million plus

I'm sorry but this bit is complete and utter b0llox

April North West UK

2003 26,038 28,807

2004 27,736 30,209

2005 28,675 31,485

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings: Full-time males on adult rates, who have been in the same job for more than a year. Mean annual average earnings.

I KNOW FOR A FACT THATS WRONG AND ITS LIES!!!

The actual document dated 10 November 2005 entitled 2005 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

FROM THE O.N.S>

Page 7 states the following

Average_Earnings_NOV_2005_7.jpg

So in the North West HALIFAX say that we earn on average £28,675. When you look at the actual source that they imply they got the data from, its only £23,249.20 which is more like it for the area!!!! What's £5,425.80 between friends hey? Only a difference of of nearly 19%!!!!! or an extra £340 a month (after taxes)!!!

Is it any wonder they play the affordability card??

B@stards!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Guest Bart of Darkness

• The average price of a house in Yorkshire and the Humber is currently £131,064. This compares to the UK average of £169,901.

• House prices in Yorkshire and the Humber increased by 8.4% in 2005 - above the UK average of 5.1% and the second strongest growth of any English region. Despite outstripping the UK average for the third successive year, house price inflation slowed sharply in 2005 (22.2% in 2004) with the smallest annual rise since 2000.

This would agree with my view that Yorkshire is some way behind the southern regions in the current cycle.

• Prices in the region increased by 2.1% in Q4 2005.

• Greater London prices are now only 2.0 times higher than those in the Yorkshire and the Humber. In Q4 2001 Greater London prices were 2.9 times higher.

This can't last y'know.

• House prices in Yorkshire and the Humber have risen by 67% over the past three years, ranking the region second out of the 12 UK regions.

Why?

• Cleckheaton, the region's best performing town, saw a 20% increase in house prices over the past year. The next best performing towns in the region were Keighley at 13% and Pudsey at 12%.

• House price inflation is expected to slow further in 2006 with prices rising by 4%, slightly ahead of the UK average of 3%.

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Ignore the "index" figure which hides the trend emerging on an area by area basis.

Look instead at the table of actual borough by borough figures yoy. The London index figure will be hugely skewed by the massive price increases in real ****hole areas like Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Lambeth etc - poorer areas are the usual "late arrivals" to any property boom and fastest to fall eventually. Strip these out and for the traditionally "desireable" London boroughs you are left with prices between 6% down and 2% up. Wandsworth, Richmond and Kingston all 3% down which is telling. This is consistent with stories on this board - and these are yoy change figures for the WHOLE of 2005. The story next year will be worse as the increased reductions later in the year filter through and the older higher prices drop out.

eg A 100% mortgaged FTB of a £270,000 2 bed flat in TTRTR's neck of the woods (SW11) in late 2004 is probably now in negative equity to the tune of £8,100 (and sliding towards that stamp duty threshold). The only problem at the moment is that the FTB doesn't know it yet...

We need these real Halifax reductions in the news!

My street in Wandsworth: 2004 2 bed garden flat - £325k, 2005 price for similar property: £315k

These are actual selling prices.

Another similar, although slightly inferior property sold for £260k back in August, after price reductions from £350k......

:lol:

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Errr no.

My London borough up 4%!? As many desirable areas as horrible ones.

Me too (at least where I'm just moving to), but 4% is bugger all really. When I looked on that BBC site for the breakdown in my area it was total stagnation on everything under about £350K, and some odd movement on £1 million houses - it's worth looking at that to get another angle on what's really happening.

Look at those prices rises in dodgy areas though - 26% in Hackney! Big rises in Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Lambeth. I can't see any explanation for that other than pure idiocy, and these are counterbalancing the falls in outer London to keep the YOY fairly positive. Most moderate homes in London areas you'd actually consider living have barely shifted in price in the last few years - it is hard to say what will happen next in London, but it's not especially positive at this stage whatever the headline figure shows.

Edited by Magpie

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South West -1.9%....Swinedon -1%, £3000, that'd be approximately my "dead money" rent that I paid last year. "Renting's a mugs' game, you're just paying someone else's mortgage anyway, prices are still rising - look out that you don't get left behind..."

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Have you noticed how this report has been realised on the quiet? Also, it has been realised 16 days after the first report where everyone has forgotten the headline figure.

Should we e-mail certain media outlets (BBC) asking them to mention the top movers in the next Halifax story?

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It's only the horrible areas still rising. All the desirable places are DOWN.

Looking at Yorkshire and Humberside - i'd say you're spot on. My sister has just bought (sstc) a 3 bedroom townhouse big garden overlooking fields in Cheltenham - nice area for £130K (five offers/sale fell through/i think this is a good deal - can anyone tell me?). I live in Keighley, and the same house would cost the same/if not more. In Keighley (Mentioned in the top ten of crap towns), prices are up 13% - these EA's live in cloud cook-coo land. The nice areas in Yorkshire (Harrogate/Skipton) are down, but the silly idiots in Keighley decide to hike up the price - that's what's keeping house price rises up here (are you listening imupnorth?!). Goodness me - they'll be installing that electricity next, and building roads! (What worries me is shell suits and bum bags never went out of fashion here - so whats going to happen to our little bubble - maybe it'll never burst here!)

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Interesting to note this:

Figures include properties sold for £1 million plus

I'm sorry but this bit is complete and utter b0llox

I KNOW FOR A FACT THATS WRONG AND ITS LIES!!!

The actual document dated 10 November 2005 entitled 2005 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

FROM THE O.N.S>

Page 7 states the following

Average_Earnings_NOV_2005_7.jpg

So in the North West HALIFAX say that we earn on average £28,675. When you look at the actual source that they imply they got the data from, its only £23,249.20 which is more like it for the area!!!! What's £5,425.80 between friends hey? Only a difference of of nearly 19%!!!!! or an extra £340 a month (after taxes)!!!

Is it any wonder they play the affordability card??

B@stards!

TB

Excellent, excellent work TB!

The spin is bad enough, but out and out lies is a disgrace.

NDL

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Halifax show Ashford down 1% despite Kirstie naming it one of the top 10 places in the country.

Nationwide show mortgage payments as % take-home pay (first time buyers) is 54% in the South East!

"Affordability is a significant factor in constraining house prices" - No sh*t Sherlock!

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Interesting to note this:

Figures include properties sold for £1 million plus

I'm sorry but this bit is complete and utter b0llox

I KNOW FOR A FACT THATS WRONG AND ITS LIES!!!

The actual document dated 10 November 2005 entitled 2005 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

FROM THE O.N.S>

Page 7 states the following

Average_Earnings_NOV_2005_7.jpg

So in the North West HALIFAX say that we earn on average £28,675. When you look at the actual source that they imply they got the data from, its only £23,249.20 which is more like it for the area!!!! What's £5,425.80 between friends hey? Only a difference of of nearly 19%!!!!! or an extra £340 a month (after taxes)!!!

Is it any wonder they play the affordability card??

B@stards!

TB

I aint letting this go!!!!

I am sending it to Watchdog! Whats the best financial ombudsman I can send it to? Is the press complaints commission applicable also, as they are releasing it for publication (anyone got an e-mail?), what about a Newspaper although I know they are also a VI!

Please let me know - I will also send it to Halifax and let them see that I have CC'd all these people. I personally cant see them giving me a mortgage but I really dont give a f00k - we need to expose these LIARS!!

TB

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get to it jason, the bbc e-mail that is.

And great thread, i needed a cheer as the misses is bending my ear about what if. Impatient lass that she is.

Can we email these to others? Moneyweek? Economist? Daily Mail/Express?

If this is on the front pages in the next few weeks we'll be on the way!

Anyone willing to forward these figures to the papers (or know how to?)

(they have received VERY little press exposure so far)

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halifax is based on halifax data, wont they will be using there own 'average' income data gleaned from morgage approvals?

anyway.... worcestershire down 5%, probably helped by larger properties falling....

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"While Reading saw a slight fall in its average house price last year, there are still areas of interest"

Well, yes if you call 4% nominal, 6.5% real a "slight fall".

Of course there are some people who would say that a (250,000 x 6.5%) £16,000 fall is actually a bit more than a slight fall, to put it another way, another year of these slight falls would pretty much wipe out the equity on a highly leveraged property.

Note also, this is still the start of the crash, the big falls are yet to come.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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