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rantnrave

Nationwide July - First Full House Price Index Since Eu Vote

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Yep - still rising...

Up 0.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY

Must be a new peak average price too.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2016/Jul_2016.pdf

The blurb does however state:

“This is the first month’s data following the EU referendum. However, it is important to note that, in constructing the index, we use data at the mortgage offer stage – this means any impact from the vote may not be fully evident in July’s figures, as there is a short lag between a buyer making the decision to purchase a property and applying for a mortgage.

Edited by rantnrave

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Nationwide said its figures might not yet capture any impact from the June 23 Brexit vote. Its data is based on property prices at the time when buyers are offered mortgages, something which occurs with a short lag after a decision to buy a property.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3712126/UK-house-price-growth-edges-no-Brexit-effect-Nationwide.html#ixzz4FgavM2Dz

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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Even so, its depressing news, one wonders if this CRASH is EVER going to happen?

Too many deluded vendors. Just seeing property sat on market for years with zero interest due to prices. Any piddly price drop is always accompanied with a new fantasy price and OIEO. Need another event to smoke them out...only consolation is that it's almost certain they are suffering too..suffering becausr no one is turning up to pay obscene amounts for their cr4p house....

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Even so, its depressing news, one wonders if this CRASH is EVER going to happen?

It's already in the making. Volumes are reportedly hitting the floor, which is the first step. Those who are not forced to sell are staying put, but S24 will get them to the market soon.

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Too many deluded vendors. Just seeing property sat on market for years with zero interest due to prices. Any piddly price drop is always accompanied with a new fantasy price and OIEO. Need another event to smoke them out...only consolation is that it's almost certain they are suffering too..suffering becausr no one is turning up to pay obscene amounts for their cr4p house....

depends on what you call 'obscene amounts for their cr4p house' ?

well where i live (sh*t hole of the SE) houses are selling for an OBSCENE average around 350K , and they SELL within a few months or sometimes even weeks on the market.

I thought with the OUT vote, this would get the CRASH going, but all you read is f***ing houses still going UP.

It depresses me no end... :(

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It's already in the making. Volumes are reportedly hitting the floor, which is the first step. Those who are not forced to sell are staying put, but S24 will get them to the market soon.

what about the RECORD amount of 1st time buyers in the news a few days ago?

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I think I have mentioned this before on here, but I have a massive old Irish family, the ones in the USA and UK are now second and third generation. They nearly all work like trojans with the odd exception and would not have a clue how to claim welfare benefits, in fact it would be shameful for most of them, though it should not be.

But there is always the one or two exceptions, I have this one daughter of a cousin who was the prettiest girl in class and thought that was the only qualification she will ever need, forever on Facebook doing here duck face or zoolander face or whatever they call it. She has had several jobs that are just going nowhere, it is quite obvious to see she has other plans on how she is going to get what she wants in life.

Then a few days ago she announces to the family she is now pregnant and the baby is due in Feb, my school teacher cousin is furious, we come from a family where it is still frowned upon having a child outside marriage and before you have put the hard work in first and have built something up, rightly or wrongly. But the first thing I thought, and more so when you read these Nationwide housing figures, that's her housing all sorted for the long term as her other many dozens of other cousins and family members continue into their 30's and probably 40's in the future to save to get their own places.

The aspiration of owning a home is dwindling by the month and if this country does not soon reverse this mess and the need to have too much house price inflation more and more people will say f*** it and take the easy route, working is becoming a mugs game. Sadly working your boll*x off is in my families genes, it would just be too hard to learn to screw the system, and I have to admit is is bring the worst out in some of us. Yesterday I met a customer in horrible crappy Luton, a place I hate, I saw this submissive looking woman all in black and veiled with four kids in tow and a husband walking in front and probably not working(just a guess), and I hate myself for this, but could not help thinking who pays for the housing etc

RACIST UNEDUCATED BREXIT SCUM!! (copyright #VileBBC June2016)

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what about the RECORD amount of 1st time buyers in the news a few days ago?

The only article that rings the bell for me is this one:

http://www.yourmortgage.co.uk/first-time-buyers/first-time-buyer-homes-hit-record-high/

But it only tells about record prices that first time buyers have to pay, not about how many of them are actually interested in paying those prices.

sorry i can't edit my last post, anyway what does S24 mean?

Section 24 of the Income Tax Act, which will render BTL unprofitable for a lot of leveraged landlords.

I'm positively positive :) about the outlook of the market and the direction it's heading. We're at the peak and it might take some time before the snowball grows, but once it does, it will wipe out everything on its way. Then again, it's a very illiquid market, so patience is the key. S24 will be in full effect no sooner than 2020 - although smart money will sell much earlier - and HTB is there to stay until end of 2020 as well.

Edited by kibuc

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@^^

thanks.

you know i spoke to 2 biz owners recently one was 71, the other in his 60's and both could NOT get there head around ZIRP and crazing house prices, both told me its going to end VERY BADLY, but i just keep asking when...

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Yes, that's the way to deal with the problem, just like Rotherham, stick our heads in the sand until the problems gets so big it bites us on the ar*e.

If that makes me racist, then OK, I am fine with that label , though I am anything but. I personally think it is morally corrupt and totally wrong to think you can get to child bearing age and push out as many kids as you see fit and expect the taxpayer to put the hard work in, the struggling homeless taxpayer in many cases. I also rubbished a member of my own family for pulling the same stunt, but you seem to have missed that.

Sorry was attempted sarcasm with an unsubtle dig at the #VileBBC to boot.

Thing is I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of the obscene benefits system tbh. What is the incentive to work your **** off for a shitty wage when house prices go up by more than you can earn in a year? I blame the game not the playa yo

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The mood on this forum goes up and down like a bunch of teenagers on a night out.

Look further into the future and it's blindingly obvious that S24 will make a material difference. S24 fundamentally changes the economics for leveraged BTL, instead of a BTL punt being an essentially cost free gamble, it will require that a leveraged landlord suffers a significant reduction in their monthly disposable income in order to maintain their seat at the BTL table. Given that well over half of all new builds are bought for BTL, that has to change the dynamics of the UK housing market and prevent FTB's being constantly outbid.

That's the good news. The bad news is that S24 has a mighty long gestation period, and won't be fully implemented until tax year 2020/21. BTL landlords will prove stubborn and intractable, but as the years roll past their fingers will be prized away from property one reluctant digit at a time. However, even though S24 is slow, it is inexorable. All you have to do is keep your focus on 2020/21 and not be distracted by short term noise.

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and HTB is there to stay until end of 2020 as well.

The new build HTB (aka HTB part I) runs until 2020. Help to Buy part deux, which has been available on all properties, is currently scheduled to end in a little over five months.

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Yes, that's the way to deal with the problem, just like Rotherham, stick our heads in the sand until the problems gets so big it bites us on the ar*e.

If that makes me racist, then OK, I am fine with that label , though I am anything but. I personally think it is morally corrupt and totally wrong to think you can get to child bearing age and push out as many kids as you see fit and expect the taxpayer to put the hard work in, the struggling homeless taxpayer in many cases. I also rubbished a member of my own family for pulling the same stunt, but you seem to have missed that.

Erm.... its the Wig. Sarcasm antenna fail.

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It will crash (eventually) in a nasty, vicious way. I see it on par with dictatorships. Looks invincible but in essence is a paper tiger and tumbles pretty dramatically when the momentum changes. Think North Korea. Strong, stable, invincible? My backside, a couple of pinpricks in the right spots and it would crumble overnight. This is no different.

Might just have to accept thou that due to long timescales home ownership is not possible for an entire generation, especially for those that refuse to signup to so much debt..

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what about the RECORD amount of 1st time buyers in the news a few days ago?

You have to look past the headlines and more at the data. The MSM (and the BBC in particular) will spin and spin to turn a negative headline into a positive one. It depends on your point of view whether they feel they are giving the public what they think they want, or whether they are actively and deliberately manipulating sentiment.

My opinion is very much the latter.

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Yesterday I met a customer in horrible crappy Luton, a place I hate, I saw this submissive looking woman all in black and veiled with four kids in tow and a husband walking in front and probably not working(just a guess), and I hate myself for this, but could not help thinking who pays for the housing etc

I thought this story was going to result in you politely asking her to remove her binbag or something. Disappointed.

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Project Fear practically guaranteed that they'd fall 18%, who do I sue?

I thought project fear said they would rise 18% less over the next 5 years if we voted for Brexit - but still carry on going up

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Meanwhile, at the coal face

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-how-thousands-of-house-deals-collapsed-in-london-due-to-brexit-a3305526.html

" sharp fall in prices since the 23 June Referendum - with one early survey suggesting a 12 per cent drop."

": ”I have even heard of the people at the top end of the chain offering to buy the £200,000 flat at the bottom end just to make it all work.”" PONZI

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"In one dramatic example of a post-Brexit price reduction this week agents JLL said the owners of a spectacular triplex penthouse overlooking the Houses of Parliament were prepared to accept offers as much as to £1 million below the £6 million asking price to secure a sale before the end of August."

I bet they were.

Desperation and fear is in the air.

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I just want it to start spreading outwards. Too many VIs are saying it's restricted to Prime London. It clearly isn't but let's have some spreading outwards.

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