Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[GrizzlyDave]

Just now, thecrashingisles said:

What did you think the parliament was all about?

In the good old EEC days, about trade.

Now it’s supernational geopolitics and massive social engineering.

[OnionTerror]

13 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I suspect they might actually have a better chance than us. On the basis of Canada being a rather smaller elephant getting into the rowing boat.  

...although if you double the distance, you halve the trade..I wonder if the US would poke their noses in?

[Confusion of VIs]

14 minutes ago, onlooker said:

What makes you think that? From the outset, the EU Project was about political union, and the construction of an inward looking trade zone surrounded by tariff walls. When we joined the EEC, this aspect was deliberately denied, yet with Delors, Maastricht and Lisbon, the direction of travel is clear for all, and is accelerating.

Soft Brexit keeps us imprisoned within the protectionist trade zone, but outside any political influence (not that we had any successes on that front anyway). The DUP have shown how to deal with the EU.

Are you just Trolling or genuinely unaware that the UK was

- on the winning side on around 95% of the votes, often being the swing voter.

- a maybe the major player in the creation of the single market

- the major player driving the expansion to include the EE states

Over the past 26 years, with the exception of Germany we have been the most influential state in the EU, quite an achievement for a state that wasn't even in the Eurozone. 

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

...although if you double the distance, you halve the trade..I wonder if the US would poke their noses in?

Maybe but it would be a wonderful response to Trump's attempts to bully the other NAFTA states. 

[macca13]

No more people.. 

The UN food and agriculture organisation (FAO) estimates the threshold at which a country becomes “food vulnerable” is when as much as 25% of its food is imported.. 

The UK imports 65% of our food! So there’s no need to panic, until there is!

you could look at food as a weapon.. the more our population grows, the more dependant we are on Other countries.. the more they could use that as leverage! 

I want 0 immigration.. don’t care about the economy.. it’s a load of made up Bollux.. 

overpopulation, climate change and destruction is real.. everything else is made up.. 

[Confusion of VIs]

14 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

In the good old EEC days, about trade.

Now it’s supernational geopolitics and massive social engineering.

I can understand the supernational geopolitics as that's the way the world is going  but what massive social engineering.

[GrizzlyDave]

19 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I can understand the supernational geopolitics as that's the way the world is going  but what massive social engineering.

For real?

Don’t take the blEU pill and you will see for yourself.

Edited December 5, 2017 by GrizzlyDave

[Confusion of VIs]

 

You will soon be hearing lots more about this

https://www.ft.com/content/31ba528c-d9b8-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

 Search  "BoE secretly warned UK courts of Brexit onslaught"

As most people involved in the City Insurance and Derivatives industry already know there simply is not time to carry out all of the legal work required to be ready to leave the EU by March 2019. Despite all the current Tory posturing the transition period will have to be an extension of our membership of the EU and for longer than the currently stated two years.  Trying to push before all the legalities have been completed on would risk causing banks to collapse and bringing on the next financial crisis.

It even risks one of the potentially affected companies or states petitioning the Supreme Court/ECoJ to stop Brexit (and yes they do have that power). Be worth it just to see the next days Express.

   

 

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

For real?

Don’t take the blEU pill and you will see for yourself.

Yes for real. Could it be you need to lay off the pills (all the pills) to get back to reality 

[GrizzlyDave]

7 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yes for real. Could it be you need to lay off the pills (all the pills) to get back to reality 

Perhaps the metaphor has been misunderstood.

How about rich members funding poor members; widespread social programs and reform packages. All of this is social engineering - and way way beyond a trading club. Which is why I quite liked the EEC but not the EU.

 

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, onlooker said:

but outside any political influence (not that we had any successes on that front anyway).

What alternate reality is this where the UK had no political success in the EU? For example, the UK were the primary drivers of the reason we're now leaving, expansion eastward.

[ZeroSumGame]

Quote

'We can't go on like this': mood of resignation in EU as Brexit talks stutter

Theresa May is ‘afraid of her own shadow’, her government is weak and Brexit is proving ‘nonsense’, observers say           Guardian

Or better still read some of the German press - they're getting mightily tired of the HMG's incompetence.

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, onlooker said:

Then there is no problem in the EU giving tariff free access to us, is there?

As an EU citizen, I'd vote against that. The UK leaving and retaining tariff free access is an ideological danger to the longer term stability of the remaining countries. I'd like the EU to make sure the UK has a less favourable position outside the EU than in, particularly because they already reap the geographical proximity benefits of a stable Europe.

Edited December 6, 2017 by dugsbody

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Perhaps the metaphor has been misunderstood.

How about rich members funding poor members; widespread social programs and reform packages. All of this is social engineering - and way way beyond a trading club. Which is why I quite liked the EEC but not the EU.

 

I have no problem with that, in fact I think there should probably be more of it. It was part of the deal for letting us sell without tariffs into much poorer countries, rather than have the one way tariffs that we have with many developing countries.

I don't really understand why people obsess about it, in macro terms it really is peanuts. I cannot be bothered to look up our payment into the structural fund but doubt it was ever much more than 0.1% of our GDP, or in real terms not enough for anyone to notice.    

Yes the EEC/EU evolved but so has the world. The days when people thought free trade was just about tariffs are gone, as the poorer countries now know that this just forces them to play on a forever uphill sloping playing field.   True free trade also involves capital (done), regulation (to avoid social dumping and FoM (or at least Fo Labour, as May found out when India told her there would be no free trade deal without FoL).  

 

[macca13]

3 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

As an EU citizen, I'd vote against that. The UK leaving and retaining tariff free access is an ideological danger to the longer term stability of the remaining countries. I'd like the EU to make sure the UK has a less favourable position outside the EU than in, particularly because they already reap the geographical proximity benefits of a stable Europe.

I take issue in the word “Benefits” 

i think Brexit has shown us 1 thing.. 51% of the country have noticed that the country is going down the toilet!  That’s inside the EU

the other 49% are either profiting from the total collapse in living standards or they are blind! 

From when I was 18 to today.. Every single thing about this country is worse! And I totally blame mp’s, bankers, ceo’s Of large cooperates and open boarders.. 

Every argument pro mass immigration is based on Greed.. not what is best for the people! But what is best for the creation of wealth for the richest.. 

[pig]

36 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

You will soon be hearing lots more about this

https://www.ft.com/content/31ba528c-d9b8-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

 Search  "BoE secretly warned UK courts of Brexit onslaught"

As most people involved in the City Insurance and Derivatives industry already know there simply is not time to carry out all of the legal work required to be ready to leave the EU by March 2019. Despite all the current Tory posturing the transition period will have to be an extension of our membership of the EU and for longer than the currently stated two years.  Trying to push before all the legalities have been completed on would risk causing banks to collapse and bringing on the next financial crisis.

It even risks one of the potentially affected companies or states petitioning the Supreme Court/ECoJ to stop Brexit (and yes they do have that power). Be worth it just to see the next days Express.

   

 

 

 

 

That sounds really messy. Could that be a catalyst for a global credit crunch or is it only the U.K. that would be fecked ?

 

 

[ZeroSumGame]

Quote

Theresa May’s Brexit red lines were reckless. Now she has to cross them

Keir Starmer

Oh dear. Beginning to look really grim.Guardian

Quote

This week’s farcical talks exposed the flaws in her government’s approach. She is hostage to the DUP and has made promises she cannot sensibly keep

Oh dear.  Not #StrongAndStable then.

[dugsbody]

15 minutes ago, macca13 said:

I take issue in the word “Benefits” 

i think Brexit has shown us 1 thing.. 51% of the country have noticed that the country is going down the toilet!  That’s inside the EU

the other 49% are either profiting from the total collapse in living standards or they are blind! 

From when I was 18 to today.. Every single thing about this country is worse! And I totally blame mp’s, bankers, ceo’s Of large cooperates and open boarders.. 

Every argument pro mass immigration is based on Greed.. not what is best for the people! But what is best for the creation of wealth for the richest.. 

Yup, blame anyone except our own inept and morally corrupt governments who we keep voting in. That should solve the problem. 

When you say everything is worse, what specifically? Housing is a shambles, that is true, but if you actually pay attention and engage in factual debate, you'll note that housing is a shambles across the whole world but mostly only in popular metropolitan areas. The reason is because countries have engaged in free trade with the developing world, who make stuff cheaper than us. Which has meant that low skilled manufacturing has disappeared from developed nations and high skilled services and manufacturing has taken its place. This has led to a concentration of wealth in metropolitan areas, which along with the financialisation of housing, results in generational inequality of house prices, but only in those areas. In many other areas, as anecdotally confirmed on here fairly often, housing is cheaper than 10 years ago.

And this has ****** all to do with the EU and brexit won't solve it. 

Other problems that I have are poor implementation of planning permission (UK gov fault), poor planning for an ageing population (UK gov fault, going to get worse with fewer working age immigrants), poorly focused austerity (should have invested in the regions infrastructure and built tons of houses in the metro areas, UK gov fault). Oh and also a pet peeve of mine is unending support for high end health care. No, if people want to live longer then they should pay for the expensive life prolonging healthcare themselves. Rather redirect all that NHS money into the every day functions, reduce doctor waiting times by hiring more doctors, more nurses, more A&E staff. Stop bribing the elderly for votes.

What other issues do you have that you blame on the EU?  

Edited December 6, 2017 by dugsbody

[Confusion of VIs]

52 minutes ago, pig said:

That sounds really messy. Could that be a catalyst for a global credit crunch or is it only the U.K. that would be fecked ?

It would be an equal opportunity fecked.  Initially affecting whoever is holding insurance/derivatives, that even temporarily couldn't be relied upon/traded. Then there would be all the second and third level effects as people stopped trading with other companies and tried to get their assets back into cash. 

It probably won't happen as at some point the posturing has to stop and reality addressed but we still seem to be some way off that. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Oh dear. Beginning to look really grim.Guardian

Oh dear.  Not #StrongAndStable then.

It's getting very embarrassing to be associated with such a totally incompetent government.  

The quote below is pretty much on the nail. 

Quote

Perhaps the most scathing verdict was that of the Deutschlandfunk commentator Peter Kapern, who described Brexit as “the biggest political nonsense” since the Roman emperor Caligula made his favourite horse a senator. “Anyone who needed further proof of this thesis has received it today,” he wrote.

Even if an agreement on Brexit was reached in the coming days, Kapern said, Monday’s events showed “that the United Kingdom will not only leave the EU but, above all, the world stage”.

 

[pig]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It's getting very embarrassing to be associated with such a totally incompetent government.  

The quote below is pretty much on the nail. 

 

It’s definately a political idea to to with power and/or identity rather than anything to do with helping the average Brit put food on the table, although it’s resulting in a crisis of both.

I thought this was a bit harsh:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/05/the-guardian-view-on-britain-and-the-customs-union-just-do-it

In 2016 more than 17 million British people voted to leave the European Union. But... only two British people decided that this meant leaving the European single market, the customs union and the jurisdiction of the European court of justice

as really the problem seems to be Conservative leaders trying to pander to the loons in the party. Maybe the last people you want to pander to when trying to implement Brexit are Brexiters.

 

 

[ddd]

6 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Yup, blame anyone except our own inept and morally corrupt governments who we keep voting in. That should solve the problem. 

When you say everything is worse, what specifically? Housing is a shambles, that is true, but if you actually pay attention and engage in factual debate, you'll note that housing is a shambles across the whole world but mostly only in popular metropolitan areas. The reason is because countries have engaged in free trade with the developing world, who make stuff cheaper than us. Which has meant that low skilled manufacturing has disappeared from developed nations and high skilled services and manufacturing has taken its place. This has led to a concentration of wealth in metropolitan areas, which along with the financialisation of housing, results in generational inequality of house prices, but only in those areas. In many other areas, as anecdotally confirmed on here fairly often, housing is cheaper than 10 years ago.

And this has ****** all to do with the EU and brexit won't solve it. 

Other problems that I have are poor implementation of planning permission (UK gov fault), poor planning for an ageing population (UK gov fault, going to get worse with fewer working age immigrants), poorly focused austerity (should have invested in the regions infrastructure and built tons of houses in the metro areas, UK gov fault). Oh and also a pet peeve of mine is unending support for high end health care. No, if people want to live longer then they should pay for the expensive life prolonging healthcare themselves. Rather redirect all that NHS money into the every day functions, reduce doctor waiting times by hiring more doctors, more nurses, more A&E staff. Stop bribing the elderly for votes.

What other issues do you have that you blame on the EU?  

Brexit is just a very thin veil that racist and xenophobic nut jobs hide behind. Nothing more, nothing less. 

[GrizzlyDave]

6 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Yup, blame anyone except our own inept and morally corrupt governments who we keep voting in. That should solve the problem. 

When you say everything is worse, what specifically? Housing is a shambles, that is true, but if you actually pay attention and engage in factual debate, you'll note that housing is a shambles across the whole world but mostly only in popular metropolitan areas. The reason is because countries have engaged in free trade with the developing world, who make stuff cheaper than us. Which has meant that low skilled manufacturing has disappeared from developed nations and high skilled services and manufacturing has taken its place. This has led to a concentration of wealth in metropolitan areas, which along with the financialisation of housing, results in generational inequality of house prices, but only in those areas. In many other areas, as anecdotally confirmed on here fairly often, housing is cheaper than 10 years ago.

And this has ****** all to do with the EU and brexit won't solve it. 

Other problems that I have are poor implementation of planning permission (UK gov fault), poor planning for an ageing population (UK gov fault, going to get worse with fewer working age immigrants), poorly focused austerity (should have invested in the regions infrastructure and built tons of houses in the metro areas, UK gov fault). Oh and also a pet peeve of mine is unending support for high end health care. No, if people want to live longer then they should pay for the expensive life prolonging healthcare themselves. Rather redirect all that NHS money into the every day functions, reduce doctor waiting times by hiring more doctors, more nurses, more A&E staff. Stop bribing the elderly for votes.

What other issues do you have that you blame on the EU?  

It’s not just our government though is it. The Dutch aren’t happy, or the Germans, or the French, or the Italians, or the Austrians.

Wealth redistribution and globalisation (EU and non EU) has seen 20+ years of stagnant wages and eroded living standards.

I agree it’s not just the EU to blame, also our lazy government. But there was one chance and one opportunity to push the Button against more of the same tulip. And we took it.

 

[GrizzlyDave]

47 minutes ago, pig said:

It’s definately a political idea to to with power and/or identity rather than anything to do with helping the average Brit put food on the table, although it’s resulting in a crisis of both.

I thought this was a bit harsh:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/05/the-guardian-view-on-britain-and-the-customs-union-just-do-it

In 2016 more than 17 million British people voted to leave the European Union. But... only two British people decided that this meant leaving the European single market, the customs union and the jurisdiction of the European court of justice

as really the problem seems to be Conservative leaders trying to pander to the loons in the party. Maybe the last people you want to pander to when trying to implement Brexit are Brexiters.

 

 

If only Cameron had been clear about leaving the single market before the vote... Oh hang on a sec...

 

[dugsbody]

5 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I agree it’s not just the EU to blame, also our lazy government. But there was one chance and one opportunity to push the Button against more of the same tulip. And we took it.

No, I'm still going to challenge this. I disagree that the EU has anything much at all to do with any of those problems from a causal view. In fact I've said numerous times, we'd probably be better off as a country if we went "more EU, less UK gov". You took your chance to say screw you to something, and chose the wrong thing.