Bt9

[yadayada]

A couple of friends in a mixed marriage in lurgan got a bit of grief in a surprisingly "nice" area. It largely depends on how unpleasant the particular neighbours are.

[yadayada]

There is no mixing in the rougher estates.

[JoeDavola]

36 minutes ago, yadayada said:

A couple of friends in a mixed marriage in lurgan got a bit of grief in a surprisingly "nice" area. It largely depends on how unpleasant the particular neighbours are.

Ouch. That's very sad that we've still got that much animosity towards such things.

[yadayada]

Well they might have been unfortunate in having unpleasant people on either side of them. They might have even had no bother  a couple of hundred yards away.

[JoeDavola]

Heard a report of a house in BT9 which has been on sale for 8 months. They've had a cash offer of only 5% less than the asking price and......refused it.

[top_dag20001]

On 27/01/2017 at 11:13 AM, JoeDavola said:

Heard a report of a house in BT9 which has been on sale for 8 months. They've had a cash offer of only 5% less than the asking price and......refused it.

This happened a lot in the last boom part of the cycle - can attest to that! Can you name the house?

It's symptomatic of inefficient market - unrealistic "kite-flyers" or those who are effectively stuck in their current house due to over paying in the past and cannot absorb any loss.

Tough game to play that, as the next offer could be many time less under asking given what might happen with the economy later in the year.

Few questions to stimulate debate:

• What are peoples thoughts on sales prices being achieved in BT9 in say the last year? - there seems to have been plenty of houses advertised at +10 to +40% NAV, but are these actually completing at these levels (seems unlikely given that some have been sitting on the market for quite some long time).
• Are rent yields a good basis of valuation for BT9? (from quick research they seem to be hitting ridiculously low yields e.g. c2-3%.
• How flexible/honest are the local EAs? - are they willing to play ball? - i.e. managing expectation of buyers of lower (realistic) offers? Do they let it be know which vendors 'need' to sell and which are wasting their time? Which ones are the best to deal with for discovering value?
• What's the impressions/consensus for prices in BT9 from readers for the upcoming year? up, steady, down? 

[JoeDavola]

52 minutes ago, top_dag20001 said:

This happened a lot in the last boom part of the cycle - can attest to that! Can you name the house?

It's symptomatic of inefficient market - unrealistic "kite-flyers" or those who are effectively stuck in their current house due to over paying in the past and cannot absorb any loss.

Tough game to play that, as the next offer could be many time less under asking given what might happen with the economy later in the year.

Few questions to stimulate debate:

• What are peoples thoughts on sales prices being achieved in BT9 in say the last year? - there seems to have been plenty of houses advertised at +10 to +40% NAV, but are these actually completing at these levels (seems unlikely given that some have been sitting on the market for quite some long time).
• Are rent yields a good basis of valuation for BT9? (from quick research they seem to be hitting ridiculously low yields e.g. c2-3%.
• How flexible/honest are the local EAs? - are they willing to play ball? - i.e. managing expectation of buyers of lower (realistic) offers? Do they let it be know which vendors 'need' to sell and which are wasting their time? Which ones are the best to deal with for discovering value?
• What's the impressions/consensus for prices in BT9 from readers for the upcoming year? up, steady, down? 

Don't want to give out details of the house but it's a terrace in a student area.

[BelfastVI]

On 30/01/2017 at 2:31 PM, top_dag20001 said:

This happened a lot in the last boom part of the cycle - can attest to that! Can you name the house?

It's symptomatic of inefficient market - unrealistic "kite-flyers" or those who are effectively stuck in their current house due to over paying in the past and cannot absorb any loss.

Tough game to play that, as the next offer could be many time less under asking given what might happen with the economy later in the year.

Few questions to stimulate debate:

• What are peoples thoughts on sales prices being achieved in BT9 in say the last year? - there seems to have been plenty of houses advertised at +10 to +40% NAV, but are these actually completing at these levels (seems unlikely given that some have been sitting on the market for quite some long time).
• Are rent yields a good basis of valuation for BT9? (from quick research they seem to be hitting ridiculously low yields e.g. c2-3%.
• How flexible/honest are the local EAs? - are they willing to play ball? - i.e. managing expectation of buyers of lower (realistic) offers? Do they let it be know which vendors 'need' to sell and which are wasting their time? Which ones are the best to deal with for discovering value?
• What's the impressions/consensus for prices in BT9 from readers for the upcoming year? up, steady, down? 

Can't give feedback on whether these second hand houses have been selling at the asking price apart from not hearing any talk of people having to cut asking prices (not proof in itself).

However estate agents, who are not my favourite profession, have had to learn to control expectations or they simply will not make a living. If they sell a house for £150k they obtain a fee of say £2,250 and I assume that is the correct market price for my example. If they go all out, push and push etc and sell the house at an over inflated price of say £170k they will earn say £2,550.  Getting the market bursting £20k extra price will delight the owner, if they don't mind the extra time, the countless extra viewings and the perhaps several false sales, however, for all this extra work the cocky and ambitious agent will receive an extra £300. Hardly worth it when they could have spent all that time selling another correctly priced house at £150k and receiving another £2,250. Therefore it is against an estate agents interest to be trying to sell houses at over market prices. Indeed it is in an agents interest to go to market at below market price and whilst receiving a fraction less commission they get the sale and fee a lot faster and with a lot less hassle.

My view is NAV is useless as a marker on price. Some of these valuations are much higher than they should have been and some are much lower. Rent yields don't appear to have much impact on prices. In some of Germany's cities prices are strictly linked to rent for the first 10 years which kept HPI inflation at practically Zero. This was to stop the investment in the asset that could/would fuel inflation. Seamed a good idea until you that the Germans were the largest investors in the Spanish and Irish property bubble.

BT9, generally is dealing with the upper end of the market £500k+. The market for all house is governed by sentiment and available/affordable funding. People in the £500k+ market are largely business people. Their outlook over the last while (Brexit, Trump etc) has not been overly positive and that end of the market has indeed slowed. 

[nigooner]

40 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Can't give feedback on whether these second hand houses have been selling at the asking price apart from not hearing any talk of people having to cut asking prices (not proof in itself).

However estate agents, who are not my favourite profession, have had to learn to control expectations or they simply will not make a living. If they sell a house for £150k they obtain a fee of say £2,250 and I assume that is the correct market price for my example. If they go all out, push and push etc and sell the house at an over inflated price of say £170k they will earn say £2,550.  Getting the market bursting £20k extra price will delight the owner, if they don't mind the extra time, the countless extra viewings and the perhaps several false sales, however, for all this extra work the cocky and ambitious agent will receive an extra £300. Hardly worth it when they could have spent all that time selling another correctly priced house at £150k and receiving another £2,250. Therefore it is against an estate agents interest to be trying to sell houses at over market prices. Indeed it is in an agents interest to go to market at below market price and whilst receiving a fraction less commission they get the sale and fee a lot faster and with a lot less hassle.

My view is NAV is useless as a marker on price. Some of these valuations are much higher than they should have been and some are much lower. Rent yields don't appear to have much impact on prices. In some of Germany's cities prices are strictly linked to rent for the first 10 years which kept HPI inflation at practically Zero. This was to stop the investment in the asset that could/would fuel inflation. Seamed a good idea until you that the Germans were the largest investors in the Spanish and Irish property bubble.

BT9, generally is dealing with the upper end of the market £500k+. The market for all house is governed by sentiment and available/affordable funding. People in the £500k+ market are largely business people. Their outlook over the last while (Brexit, Trump etc) has not been overly positive and that end of the market has indeed slowed. 

The agent will only receive a percentage of this extra £300, which makes it even worse haha.

 

from what I've been told, the agency gets say 1% of the fee. The agent then gets c.10% of the sales price as their commission. 

 

Agents Commission on £150k is £150 for example

agents commission on £180k is £180.

 

agree it is not worth their efforts trying to pick the price up.

 

the book freakonomics covers this. Worth a read!

[The_Equalizer]

16 hours ago, nigooner said:

The agent will only receive a percentage of this extra £300, which makes it even worse haha.

 

from what I've been told, the agency gets say 1% of the fee. The agent then gets c.10% of the sales price as their commission. 

 

Agents Commission on £150k is £150 for example

agents commission on £180k is £180.

 

agree it is not worth their efforts trying to pick the price up.

 

the book freakonomics covers this. Worth a read!

Unless of course the vendor has given it a bit of thought and offered a decent chunk of the extra. I'd imagine offering 5% of any over a specific price might make a difference. Not to the actual agent (as noted above), but to the owner of the EA who - at the end of the day - calls the shots.

[nigooner]

3 hours ago, The_Equalizer said:

Unless of course the vendor has given it a bit of thought and offered a decent chunk of the extra. I'd imagine offering 5% of any over a specific price might make a difference. Not to the actual agent (as noted above), but to the owner of the EA who - at the end of the day - calls the shots.

This is also covered in the book

[BelfastVI]

On 01/02/2017 at 5:41 PM, nigooner said:

The agent will only receive a percentage of this extra £300, which makes it even worse haha.

 

from what I've been told, the agency gets say 1% of the fee. The agent then gets c.10% of the sales price as their commission. 

 

Agents Commission on £150k is £150 for example

agents commission on £180k is £180.

 

agree it is not worth their efforts trying to pick the price up.

 

the book freakonomics covers this. Worth a read!

Good book. Enjoyed it. 

[top_dag20001]

Fantastic read. The follow-up "Superfreakanomics" and "When to rob a bank" good reads too.

 

Hardly anything coming on the market in BT9 at 'good value'. 

Anyone see this one? - https://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=BCCE786270&SearchID=&page=

Just went "sale agreed from £365k" (NAV £320). Seems overpriced given the stats of house next door even factoring in refurb (c.£1.2kpcm rent c.4% yield), and proximity to the newer build houses on Sharman.

[The_Equalizer]

57 minutes ago, top_dag20001 said:

Fantastic read. The follow-up "Superfreakanomics" and "When to rob a bank" good reads too.

 

Hardly anything coming on the market in BT9 at 'good value'. 

Anyone see this one? - https://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=BCCE786270&SearchID=&page=

Just went "sale agreed from £365k" (NAV £320). Seems overpriced given the stats of house next door even factoring in refurb (c.£1.2kpcm rent c.4% yield), and proximity to the newer build houses on Sharman.

Lots of things seem to have suddenly gone sale agreed as of the last couple of weeks. Ironically, for me at least, the house I really wanted (but as about 10-ish % out of range) was pulled from market due to having received no offers in nine months.

Then again, just go and look how cheap money is. You can get a 5-year-fixed deal with 60% loan-to-value at around the 2% mark.

 

 

 

[2buyornot2buy]

3 hours ago, top_dag20001 said:

Fantastic read. The follow-up "Superfreakanomics" and "When to rob a bank" good reads too.

 

Hardly anything coming on the market in BT9 at 'good value'. 

Anyone see this one? - https://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=BCCE786270&SearchID=&page=

Just went "sale agreed from £365k" (NAV £320). Seems overpriced given the stats of house next door even factoring in refurb (c.£1.2kpcm rent c.4% yield), and proximity to the newer build houses on Sharman.

Stranmillis. Add an extension, some farrow and ball. 100k added. Crazy. Bubble bubble. 

 

Looks like on a few doors down went for 280 6 months ago. 

Edited February 15, 2017 by 2buyornot2buy

[isafund]

How much have 4 bed student terrace houses been going for in Stranmillis student areas? What kind of yield should one be looking for?

[BelfastVI]

11 hours ago, isafund said:

How much have 4 bed student terrace houses been going for in Stranmillis student areas? What kind of yield should one be looking for?

With the influx of new student schemes the traditional student hovel in Stranmillis and the holylands may not appear as attractive to the student (mainly their parents) or indeed to the investor. I would see some of these areas returning to their more peaceful domestic past.

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

With the influx of new student schemes the traditional student hovel in Stranmillis and the holylands may not appear as attractive to the student (mainly their parents) or indeed to the investor. I would see some of these areas returning to their more peaceful domestic past.

Agreed - 9 story student building going up in shaftsbury square and 2 or 3 big buildings over at the other side of town for UU students. Less demand for the slums in the typical areas.

I'd like to see those areas return to owner occupiers who look after the houses, but I don't think that'll happen. I think the landlords will just go from cramming in students to cramming in immigrants.

[isafund]

I predict the immigrant population in the Holylands will continue to increase as this type of 'party student' decides to move to the schemes you mentioned (as I have been noticing over the last couple years). The streets from Ulster Museum to Lyric will always be attractive to the Queens and the non-partying students given proximity to campus and the better reputation it has overall - you don't get that beautiful towpath walk in the city centre!

Anyone heard roughly what 4 beds in this area have been going for? I'm seeing a bunch of 2 beds HMO's around the £135k mark. 

Then across the road from this area, this beautiful 3 bed family seems to have gone for around £425k (they dropped from £475k when I checked it a few months back)

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/ECSECS41603/1-Mount-Pleasant/409927124/Page1

[mmca22gr]

On 15/02/2017 at 4:57 PM, 2buyornot2buy said:

Stranmillis. Add an extension, some farrow and ball. 100k added. Crazy. Bubble bubble. 

 

Looks like on a few doors down went for 280 6 months ago. 

Inflation will be more than 2% in real terms over the coming years.

As stated earlier in this thread you can borrow for a 5 or 10yr fix at very cheap money.

If you have a decent job then it is a no brainer to buy, fix for a longish term at cheap money and move on with your life.

[2buyornot2buy]

2 hours ago, mmca22gr said:

Inflation will be more than 2% in real terms over the coming years.

As stated earlier in this thread you can borrow for a 5 or 10yr fix at very cheap money.

If you have a decent job then it is a no brainer to buy, fix for a longish term at cheap money and move on with your life.

I already bought in bt9 a few years ago. Still think some this is wrong when going by the NIRPPI my house has gone up 100k in 24 months. That's not healthy. Super cheap credit is a big part of the problem. 5 year fix is all well and good, but I see automation problems not too far away, even for the "good" jobs. 

[JoeDavola]

54 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I already bought in bt9 a few years ago. Still think some this is wrong when going by the NIRPPI my house has gone up 100k in 24 months. That's not healthy. Super cheap credit is a big part of the problem. 5 year fix is all well and good, but I see automation problems not too far away, even for the "good" jobs. 

The high prices in BT9 are double ridiculous when you look at:

- the actual state of some of the streets, i.e. around cutters wharf; small old houses in mostly narrow streets and are in bad states of repair

- how small Belfast is; you can move 2 miles out from BT9 and save £100K+

[2buyornot2buy]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

The high prices in BT9 are double ridiculous when you look at:

- the actual state of some of the streets, i.e. around cutters wharf; small old houses in mostly narrow streets and are in bad states of repair

- how small Belfast is; you can move 2 miles out from BT9 and save £100K+

We talked about this before. I think the price is ridiculous but people are willing to spend money to forget about flags and all the other NI shite. There's also uber snobbery playing it's part. I'd happily pay a premium to avoid it. 

I do think we need to worry when an average bt9 house makes more than an average FT private sector worker. We're not far off that and it'll all end in tears again. 

 

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

We talked about this before. I think the price is ridiculous but people are willing to spend money to forget about flags and all the other NI shite. There's also uber snobbery playing it's part. I'd happily pay a premium to avoid it. 

I do think we need to worry when an average bt9 house makes more than an average FT private sector worker. We're not far off that and it'll all end in tears again.

Yep I remember the convo, was an interesting one.

On the one hand I regret not 'getting in' to BT9 when things had crashed, as I would have liked to have lived there as I work nearby. However I'd rather commute than pay an astronomical amount for a house - by that I mean I'm not gonna take my big deposit (that in a sane market should buy a nice house outright), and add a huge mortgage on top of that just to live in BT9.

[whome_yesyou]

7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Yep I remember the convo, was an interesting one.

On the one hand I regret not 'getting in' to BT9 when things had crashed, as I would have liked to have lived there as I work nearby. However I'd rather commute than pay an astronomical amount for a house - by that I mean I'm not gonna take my big deposit (that in a sane market should buy a nice house outright), and add a huge mortgage on top of that just to live in BT9.

I have to say, I'm kind of surprised by the lack of worry or concern about those rises, especially because we were hit so badly in the recent past when the global economy crashed (well, if you consider 8 years recent).

Personally I couldn't see any way it would grow to those heights again, yet here we are. It poses bigger questions "why" or "how" - with rates being unhealthily low (what do people expect to happen when rates eventually rise), Brexit looming and May doing her best to get the worst exiting deal (UK economy will be severely impacted, and NI will always be even worse affected), Trump regularly threatening the US outsourced jobs, record high levels of household debt, zero hour jobs on the rise, local government in turmoil (doesn't help with DUP/Arlene dumping millions into the furnace), EU/Greece/Deutsche a ticking timebomb.

I do think QE, headlines such as "property market recovery", government schemes, and worst of all (as was already mentioned), cheap credit have all played its part. We know lemmings will always be lemmings, so people will ignorantly bulk themselves up with the maximum possible loan, blissfully ignoring any financial obligations, the only thing they see is how much they will pay per month, who cares about the rest. 

I'm not sure what is going to happen in the future, but things don't look as rosy as they once did. It might be grand, who knows. It's just difficult to assess whether to commit to purchasing a house when weighing up all those factors, would certainly be an easier decision if the economy were in a healthier state but I just don't see it that way.