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House Price Crash Forum

nigooner

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Everything posted by nigooner

  1. Same here, got it all wrong. Although when I was at my most pessimistic there was no furlough, SEISS, bounceback loans or CBILS- the economy would have totally collapsed without those. Instead, the government have done all they can to keep it going and then added fuel to the fire with SDLT holidays. Although I still get the sense that most people out there are oblivious and the world is one great magical place where the economy will never retract. Bonkers, considering furlough hasn’t even ended yet. I’m still convinced the NI market is in total bubble territory though, I wouldn’t be buying a new house myself at this moment in time. Although god knows what level of boom will come here if the DUP don’t succeed in their attempts at scuppering NI’s unique position of being in two trading markets at the same time!
  2. If it’s a new full planning application you’re submitting you’ll have 5 years from the date of approval.
  3. Quite the u-turn in advice from Saturday, from walking away to now entering into contract.
  4. Yes, you’ll probably have to explain your plans to the agent/vendor to let them understand that you’re not planning on submitting an unrealistic application. If the planning app is realistic and you can support it with reports and feedback from architects etc, then they might be happy to give you time to go for it. You can exchange contracts on that basis, so they have the sale secured, and you have the site secured knowing that nobody else can nip in ahead of you while you’re going through planning.
  5. Can you get a deal done subject to planning? At least you can have a punt without the vendor selling it to someone else.
  6. I always thought gold was just bought on an index and you just get a certificate or whatever, didn’t realise you actually had to store the thing yourself!
  7. This was your own generalisation. Give me 6 acres in cultra for £100k any day thanks.
  8. you’ll not build a passive house for £70-80psf. I don’t think you’ll build a standard house at £80psf anymore, the cost of certain building materials has sky rocketed in the last year or two. Also add in a healthy budget for professional fees, developer costs (utilities, etc), landscaping, costs of finance- all the things that aren’t covered by the build cost (or a fixed price jct contract). You’ll save SDLT buying the site on a self build mortgage and then remortgaging when built. If you’re getting the current owner to build it and then buy it off him, you’ll be paying full SDLT. in terms of passive haus- you’ll save a lot more going for ‘almost passive haus’, full passive house certification is beyond the point of diminishing returns in terms of build cost. Simple things like only triple glazing one side of the house (depending on which side gets the sun) can save cash and not impact the energy efficiency too much. Check into grants for your m&e, I know in England you can get grants to cover some renewable things like heat pumps etc. To make general claims that £100k for a site is too much for NI is of no use to anyone. A site for a 3500sq ft house in Cultra is worth more than £100k. But even if the generalisation was correct, most sites don’t come with an additional 5 acres, so that explains the difference in the generalisation. Speak to a good QS before you start with a view to appointing them as employers agent- they’ll handle all the finer details (that most self builders overlook), handle the tendering, can project manage etc. The money you pay them should be a fraction of what they save you in build cost. Another route is getting them to do the project on a construction management package, where each stage is tendered individually (rather than appointing one contractor for the whole project). Essentially the sole contractor is pricing in a lot of risk money for the project, and he’ll go out and sub contract all the individual stages anyway- so the CM route saves you that risk premium with the QS handling it all for you.
  9. Yes, absolutely mental. I know of a mortgage being offered at 1.39%, repayment, fixed 5yrs. As long as the banks are lending at that, the market will keep bubbling.
  10. Well only see the real impact on the housing market 6-12months after furlough ends. I can’t believe my eyes when I see the graphs of house price inflation...during a pandemic...when the government are supporting a big chunk of the workforce. That people, other than civil servants/teachers etc, would chose now to sign up to a mortgage blows my mind. Government spending will stop this year, and then the bubble will burst soon after.
  11. Good to know that, thanks. Feel sorry for any self employed that don’t qualify fir any grants or support, or who can’t even get access to bounce back loans or CBILS loans. It seems a complete lottery, with the biggest being who you originally banked with before covid existed. Most banks now aren’t even allowing new customers to open an account which is ridiculous.
  12. Are there stats out for the average amount given out on the self employed income support scheme? I’d be surprised if the average given out was so close to the maximum allowed.
  13. If you’re going down the self build route, I’d recommend employing a quantity surveyor to act for you as an employers agent and construction manager, handling all the paperwork with local authorities and contracts/tendering with sub contractors. Theoretically they should be saving you substantially more money than you pay them (and take away a lot of the hassle and risk).
  14. “traditional brick is better, timberframe is a pain as the inside walls will be full of dents in no time” This is a ludicrous statement. Walls inside a timber frame house are plaster boarded the same as any stud wall in a brick house. Depending on the quality of the plaster board, the walls can be incredibly durable. I’ve lived in a timber frame house for years and haven’t had a single ‘dent’. If you’ve bought a new build house in the last 5 years, it’s probably a timber frame and the buyers probably don’t even know. If your timber frame house is ‘full of dents in no time’ then it’s probably your behaviour that needs addressing rather than the walls.
  15. Forum has been very quiet recently, presumably because everyone is out buying houses before the SDLT reduction ends... The public seem like lemmings voluntarily walking over the edge of the economic cliff
  16. See furlough, in some shape or form, is to be extended until March 2021...
  17. I see the price has been corrected to £4,200 pcm
  18. The next crash has probably been delayed a few months by the news of furlough going back up to 80%. Would expect to see mass redundancies soon after this is reduced again, assuming the government don’t extend it again.
  19. That can’t be right, even annual rent of £50k per year would seem a lot. Plus the £80k deposit!
  20. The change in furlough will drag things out longer, with employers only needing to contribute 5% of the wages rather than the 33% or whatever it was before.
  21. I have seen a mortgage broker on LinkedIn complaining that applications are being turned down for buyers that they would have expected to sail through, with no explanation from the lenders as to why. Reading the replies to their post, they weren’t the only one!
  22. I just can’t see how the market can remain even remotely functional beyond the end of furlough. Even this new furlough 2.0 where the employers have to pay towards employees wages is going to wipe out a lot of businesses and the employment they provide. 6 months from now could be an absolute bloodbath, with the first stages of it taking place from the 1st Nov.
  23. This has got to be one of the craziest examples of north coast house prices: https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/16-the-edgewater-portstewart-bt55-7rt/property/VEB80054-1-15416615/ £1m for a townhouse that is completely overlooked by a big apartment block. Nice views though.
  24. Another update on the co-working space.£6k per month for the mezzanine floor...
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