koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) http://www.bba.org.u...h-street-banks2 All heading south [bBA = Barclays, HSBS, Lloyds, Northern Rock, RBS, Santander (inc A&L + B&B savings)] January 2011 Non seasonally adjusted numbers: (Dec 2010 numbers in brackets) # loans for house purchases 16946 (20447) Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (£2.901bn) Avg house price £135.2K (£143.3k) Whopping difference between the the SA and NSA figures: # loans for house purchases 16946 (NSA) -vs- 28932 (SA) - 70% adjustment! Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (NSA) -vs- £4.116bn (SA) - 79% adjustment! Edited February 23, 2011 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pole Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) They approved just 28,932 loans for house purchase (29% lower than a year ago). That's fewer than 1,000 per day!!! BTW, it was around 70,000 per month in 2007... Edited February 23, 2011 by Pole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) They approved just 28,932 loans for house purchase (29% lower than a year ago). That's fewer than 1,000 per day!!! BTW, it was around 70,000 per month in 2007... They didn't approve 28,932, that is a made up seasonally adjusted number. Look at the the real figures in the XL time series download at the bottom of the linked page. The real (i.e. Non seasonal adjusted) approvals were just 16946 - less than 1000 per working day! maxed at 85k approvals /month in 2006 Edited February 23, 2011 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I calculate that, continuing on this trend, in March 2067 there will be no mortgages written* (*seasonally adjusted to 28,000) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What about BTL approvals? Pretty much everything i see at 2005 prices of lower sits on the market for a while, then gets sold and turned into a rental. Its like 2001-2007 again. FTBs getting replaced by BTLers. Dont think universal homeownership will exist in 20 years time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 What about BTL approvals? Pretty much everything i see at 2005 prices of lower sits on the market for a while, then gets sold and turned into a rental. Its like 2001-2007 again. FTBs getting replaced by BTLers. Dont think universal homeownership will exist in 20 years time. They don't give a breakout of house purchase unfortunately, only the braoder house purchase, remortgage and other secured lending (MEW etc) categories Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is it a sign of the growing inequality as cash sales increase? Only the plebs need a mortgage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pauly_Boy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 http://www.bba.org.u...h-street-banks2 All heading south [bBA = Barclays, HSBS, Lloyds, Northern Rock, RBS, Santander (inc A&L + B&B savings)] January 2011 Non seasonally adjusted numbers: (Dec 2010 numbers in brackets) # loans for house purchases 16946 (20447) Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (£2.901bn) Avg house price £135.2K (£143.3k) Whopping difference between the the SA and NSA figures: # loans for house purchases 16946 (NSA) -vs- 28932 (SA) - 70% adjustment! Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (NSA) -vs- £4.116bn (SA) - 79% adjustment! Good post, I never realised that they seasonally adjusted these figured! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Dont think universal homeownership will exist in 20 years time. Does it exist now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongeh Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 So according to Rightmove they have around 200,000 properties a month coming onto the market and according to this data there are only 16,000 mortgages approved ... hmmm I can see this is going to get messy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 So according to Rightmove they have around 200,000 properties a month coming onto the market and according to this data there are only 16,000 mortgages approved ... hmmm I can see this is going to get messy Unless the RM figure is seasonally adjusted too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is it a sign of the growing inequality as cash sales increase? Only the plebs need a mortgage? Probably the snow and the FSA leaning on the 6 banks that make up the BBA to adopt MMR type principles so as to make it easier to implement the MMR as everyone is doing it anyway. The BBA figures will structurally different to 2006/7 as B&B and NR got blown out of the water effectively leaving 5 actual high-street lenders in the BBA. The BBA mortage lending is currently arround half of the CML lending which is in turn about 95% of total current lending (BoE figure). The different figures are very useful in gauging the different behaviours of the types of players i.e the high street banks have been lending to fewer people and at a lower average valuations. CML - BBA gives the behaviour of the BS and specialist lenders etc. The BBA figure are still to hit the lows of early 2009 in terms of mortgage value or number of loans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Constable Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Average value of loan for house purchase down 5.65% from Dec (£143,300) to Jan (£135,200). It is down 10.23% since June. This is surely a leading indicator... and remember that only fools are buying now and that even Rightmove admit that the market is in "paralysis" due to the continued reluctance of would-be sellers to drop their prices to realistic levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Unless the RM figure is seasonally adjusted too... BBA is the big high-street bank with around half the mortgage market. The building societies are struggling as many have merged to absorb others losses (+ stricter regulation) and the specialist foreign lenders that piled in with overseas cash between 2001 and 2007 (fuel in the boom) are long gone probably never to return. The Mortgage lending by the high street banks (BBA) in terms of the number of loans has actually decreased over time as increasing house prices (help by foreign lenders GMAC-FRC, GE etc) meant their available pool of cash to lend was divided amongst fewer people as house prices spiralled upwards. At some point I'll try to do some analysis on BBA vs CML vs BoE so see if there if one leads the behaviour of the others etc at the moment i.e. if the banks are more conservative do the BS follow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swankyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Overlap of NSA Halifax and BBA loan values Both on different scales to try to overlap them. Looking good to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) Probably the snow and the FSA leaning on the 6 banks that make up the BBA to adopt MMR type principles so as to make it easier to implement the MMR as everyone is doing it anyway. The BBA figures will structurally different to 2006/7 as B&B and NR got blown out of the water effectively leaving 5 actual high-street lenders in the BBA. The BBA mortage lending is currently arround half of the CML lending which is in turn about 95% of total current lending (BoE figure). The different figures are very useful in gauging the different behaviours of the types of players i.e the high street banks have been lending to fewer people and at a lower average valuations. CML - BBA gives the behaviour of the BS and specialist lenders etc. The BBA figure are still to hit the lows of early 2009 in terms of mortgage value or number of loans Thanks for posting. The total number of approvals, at 51293 (nsa) has never been lower (series starts in Sept 1997), and the total nsa amount at £5.38 Billion has not been lower since early 2000, prior to the structural change with B&B/NR so not really comparable. However, compensating for this is that these numbers are not inflation adjusted(eg Jan 1998 was £2.6 billion, Jan 1999 £3.0 Billion, Jan 2000 £4.2 Billion) Will be watching Feb keenly. As Bloo Loo will say, approvals mean little other than a theoretical ceiling. The ceiling keeps getting lower.. Edited February 23, 2011 by cheeznbreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 http://www.bba.org.u...h-street-banks2 All heading south [bBA = Barclays, HSBS, Lloyds, Northern Rock, RBS, Santander (inc A&L + B&B savings)] January 2011 Non seasonally adjusted numbers: (Dec 2010 numbers in brackets) # loans for house purchases 16946 (20447) Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (£2.901bn) Avg house price £135.2K (£143.3k) Whopping difference between the the SA and NSA figures: # loans for house purchases 16946 (NSA) -vs- 28932 (SA) - 70% adjustment! Value of house loans approved £2.292bn (NSA) -vs- £4.116bn (SA) - 79% adjustment! Last year they were "only" Adjusted up by 60.9% (22061 NSA vs 35510 SA) and last year the narrative was that the number was low because of the Stamp Duty boost running out in December. Not sure if anyone else said this, but this is only 500 more than in Jan '09 in unadjusted terms. funnily enough, that only got adjusted up to 25747. Those 500 cases must be magic cases that somehow count 6 fold (ish)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Average value of loan for house purchase down 5.65% from Dec (£143,300) to Jan (£135,200). It is down 10.23% since June. This is surely a leading indicator... and remember that only fools are buying now and that even Rightmove admit that the market is in "paralysis" due to the continued reluctance of would-be sellers to drop their prices to realistic levels. Could just be that the surveyors couldn't get up the drive ways of the more expensive properties in the snow in December The 2 key questions: 1) As it is cash lent that has it fallen just because banks are reducing LTVs on their deals (need CML/BoE figures to look at this) 2) Provided that it isn't just due to LTV e.g. (1), what is the feedback loop towards future price reductions i.e. does the feedback show up first in RICS surveys and then Haliwide indices. Is this the reason that Rightmove is so far away from the other indices because it doesn't have this feedback element, just mainly deluded sellers expectations and desperate EAs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) So according to Rightmove they have around 200,000 properties a month coming onto the market and according to this data there are only 16,000 mortgages approved ... hmmm I can see this is going to get messy I HIGHLY doubt that! 20,000 maybe. Edited February 23, 2011 by Van Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Overlap of NSA Halifax and BBA loan values Both on different scales to try to overlap them. Looking good to me. Halifax is the biggest single component of the BBA (excluding the rest of Lloyds) so there should be a good correlation! The Halifax is house price and BBA is mortgage value so the Halifax should be higher by 30-35% given current LTV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thanks for posting. The total number of approvals, at 51293 (nsa) has never been lower (series starts in Sept 1997), and the total nsa amount at £5.38 Billion has not been lower since early 2000, prior to the structural change with B&B/NR so not really comparable. However, compensating for this is that these numbers are not inflation adjusted(eg Jan 1998 was £2.6 billion, Jan 1999 £3.0 Billion, Jan 2000 £4.2 Billion) Will be watching Feb keenly. As Bloo Loo will say, approvals mean little other than a theoretical ceiling. The ceiling keeps getting lower.. The lowest was actually Nov2008-Jan2009 at low 16,000s, lower than when the series started. Agreed on the Bloo Loo comment the ceiling is definitely getting lower! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongeh Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I HIGHLY doubt that! 20,000 maybe. Ok I read the headline figure not that actual number, but its still 6x your guess. Each month Rightmove uses asking price data of up to 200,000 properties coming onto the market to produce this House Price Index I should have read a little more.... sorry. Rightmove measured 121,635 asking prices – circa 90% of the UK market. The properties were put on sale by estate agents from 9th January 2011 to 12th February 2011 and advertised on Rightmove.co.uk. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/02/february-2011.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And these numbers are before the recent tightening! The fixed rate we were after has moved up 0.5% and then the arrangement fee has shot up. It's still affordable as it would be a 5yr fix but if it moves much more it will be better to wait for house prices to fall! We have decided to not get a variable rate as the spreads are very large. If the fixed rate mortgages move again this week the door will be shutting fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slumpmonkey Returns Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Average value of loan for house purchase down 5.65% from Dec (£143,300) to Jan (£135,200). It is down 10.23% since June. This is surely a leading indicator... and remember that only fools are buying now and that even Rightmove admit that the market is in "paralysis" due to the continued reluctance of would-be sellers to drop their prices to realistic levels. Down over 10 per cent since last summer. This is very significant IMO. The Halifax and Nationwide have tried every trick in the book to not reflect this fall in their monthly indeces, (seasoning, revising etc). However, they can't keep this up for ever and the true scale of the falls will have to come out in the wash sooner or later. I predict minus 1-2 per cent falls in the main indeces over the next six months to reflect this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 (edited) Down over 10 per cent since last summer. This is very significant IMO. The Halifax and Nationwide have tried every trick in the book to not reflect this fall in their monthly indeces, (seasoning, revising etc). However, they can't keep this up for ever and the true scale of the falls will have to come out in the wash sooner or later. I predict minus 1-2 per cent falls in the main indeces over the next six months to reflect this. Haliwide is property price, BBA is Loan amount, so if the LTVs fall the BBA figure can go down even if property price were to remain the same! Edited February 23, 2011 by koala_bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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