Will It Work? No. What Can Ireland Do? Remove The Bank Guarantee And Default

[Toto deVeer]

The choice isn't default or not. The choice is default now or default later.

Honestly, I don't understand why the Irish don't just tell the EU officials to 'F-Off', go home and come back in 5 years.

[indirectapproach]

There seems to be some suggestion that if Irish banks default, their creditors go bust and Ireland gets to negotiate with the "new faces" that succeed the ones rubbed out by lending to Irish banks.

I think this is wrong.

If Ireland defaults, the Bank of England will certainly print whatever it takes to keep Lloyds and RBS in business.

Maybe the sad thing is Ireland doesn't owe enough.

If it did, it would have had the negotiating position to negotiate a better deal.

It seems to me the obvious thing to do if you are in Ireland now is to just leave (while you still can).

[dryrot]

...living at the very far side of the EU in growing economy I have nothing to lose.

and

I wouldn't personally be too affected by a collapse of the money system in UK and Europe. I have access to legal guns and food straight from the farm.

"Location: Battersea"?

[R K]

The choice isn't default or not. The choice is default now or default later.

Correct.

[Flat Bear]

Ireland will default. Whether you like it or not.

And that is a FACT

It is just a matter of when.

[kzb]

Get Bono to do a few benefit gigs ? Should be easy because the Irish (and us come to that) are poorer than any african.....

[Democorruptcy]

http://boombustblog.com/sitemap/2010/11/30/proof-that-ireland-will-have-to-default/

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24619.html

[Flat Bear]

and

"Location: Battersea"?

LOL no

Location Cuckoo land

[Peter Hun]

and

"Location: Battersea"?

I guess I should update that to say Poland.

[Peter Hun]

Even Krugman thinks that default is the logical approach for Ireland ....

"Bankrupting yourself to recovery" seems to be the first step towards admitting that you have a problem and dealing with it.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYq2N_r7cIU8&pos=6

Does he mention that the Icelandic currency is invalid? You cannot convert it into real money. Its not floating, its the same as the Soviet Rouble, officially it was at parity with the USD, in reality it exchanged at 7:1.

That the figures he presents for Iceland mask a future fall of 50% in their currency that will cause another complete economic collapse.

Why doesn't he use Argentina's default as an example?

Edited December 2, 2010 by Peter Hun

[Peter Hun]

Peter, I understand your arguments and can sympathise with your point of view.

It would have been far better for the French to have sat down and talked through an amicable solution with Louis XVI. Unfortunately they decided to chop his head off.

I fear the Irish, Portuguese, Greek and Spanish crises will not end amicably either.

It will end with the European bank printing as much money as needed and giving it away to whoever needs it, devaluing the Euro in the process. Simple.

[erranta]

I really hope it does. I got lot of 'enlightenment' reading about the consequences in Iceland and Argentina. Not having one penny of pension, a mortgage or anything but (soon to be inflated away) debt and living at the very far side of the EU in growing economy I have nothing to lose.

However, even if you change government i can guarantee you Ireland will not default, you will get the excuses about the consequences would be worse etc. etc.

In Sarf America most defaulted on their loans due to the punative interest rate set (and subsequently piss-takingly raised) by the evil sheriff IMF magnates!

[Bloo Loo]

It will end with the European bank printing as much money as needed and giving it away to whoever needs it, devaluing the Euro in the process. Simple.

I need some, I have a holiday in France to pay for...If I dont get it, I may not be able to afford the holiday, which will mean less income for restaurants, hotels, tourist attractions, garages, ferries and everything else.

It makes total sense to give me the money to spend to stimulate the French Economy.

[dryrot]

Get Bono to do a few benefit gigs ?

You miss-spelled "pay taxes"

Edited December 2, 2010 by dryrot

[billybong]

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-bailout-will-sink-ireland-before-we-can-even-swim-2442878.html

Extraordinarily, the people who were supposed to negotiate for the Irish people not only negotiated against us, but couldn't see the backlash coming. Perhaps this is because few of them have any real financial market qualifications.

So, rather than force the ECB to account for its own monumental culpability in allowing out-of-control German and French banks to lend recklessly to Irish banks, the Irish negotiators turned sides and acted as debt collecting agents of foreign banks.

"negotiated against us"

"acted as debt collecting agents of foreign banks"

He's describing what lots of crooked politicians call democracy.

Edited December 2, 2010 by billybong

[Peter Hun]

rather than force the ECB to account for its own monumental culpability in allowing out-of-control German and French banks to lend recklessly to Irish banks,

Oh, the 'we didn't regulate our banks so its your fault' excuse. Very popular in Iceland that.

EDIT for correct context.

Edited December 2, 2010 by Peter Hun

[Peter Hun]

In Sarf America most defaulted on their loans due to the punative interest rate set (and subsequently piss-takingly raised) by the evil sheriff IMF magnates!

Can you be specific? Argentina nationalised its pensions to pay back the IMF and bond holders. Bastards the IMF; giving them money to buy food and oil and having the cheek to ask for interest payments.

Edited December 2, 2010 by Peter Hun

[billybong]

.

Edited December 2, 2010 by billybong

[CrashConnoisseur]

Get Bono to do a few benefit gigs ? Should be easy because the Irish (and us come to that) are poorer than any african.....

Bond Aid.

[ShedDweller]

BTW, in Iceland the default worked like this. No company can deal with overseas buinsesses, you cannot make payments is ISK. Everything has to go through the government who convert ISK to Euros at the 'official' rate. Anyone who requires real currency apllies for a daily stiped when travelling abroad. Foreign currency accounts are seized.

is is the

What ? You are full of shit .. I've worked in Iceland since before the bubble started .. I've never had any problems (or heard of any problems) with foriegn currency transactions ... Immediatly after the bank crash there was a problem, but I could always withdraw cash from a hole inthe wall and the credit card system worked ..

Do you make this stuff up ? Or do you get it from some other ignorant prat ?

[SHERWICK]

Can you be specific? Argentina nationalised its pensions to pay back the IMF and bond holders. Bastards the IMF; giving them money to buy food and oil and having the cheek to ask for interest payments.

What scoundrels!

[Peter Hun]

What ? You are full of shit .. I've worked in Iceland since before the bubble started .. I've never had any problems (or heard of any problems) with foriegn currency transactions ... Immediatly after the bank crash there was a problem, but I could always withdraw cash from a hole inthe wall and the credit card system worked ..

Do you make this stuff up ? Or do you get it from some other ignorant prat ?

In Iceland, yes, there was no problem using ISK. Overseas there was. You havn't heard about the capital controls ?

http://www.aciforex.com/docs/markettopics/20101103_Central_Bank_of_Iceland.pdf

According to the ECB, ISK doesn't have an exchange rate. It isn't money. It still isn't, its exchange rate is fixed by the government

http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/index.en.html

The issues with Credit cards in Argentina was that were charging 200% interest and the banks were shut for a month

[okaycuckoo]

Seems everyone assumes Ireland will have to leave the € if it defaults. I don't see that as a necessary consequence, because the choice is political. And I don't buy the idea that Irish € will be declined - that's one of the canards of the hard-money crowd. Even at that, I reckon the € will still survive.

Ireland has some interesting choices to make.

Edited December 2, 2010 by okaycuckoo

[leicestersq]

Seems everyone assumes Ireland will have to leave the € if it defaults. I don't see that as a necessary consequence, because the choice is political. And I don't buy the idea that Irish € will be declined - that's one of the canards of the hard-money crowd. Even at that, I reckon the € will still survive.

Ireland has some interesting choices to make.

Yes, no reason for the Irish to leave the Euro.

I dont even know how that could be forced upon a nation. If a nation were to choose to use the US dollar as their currency, there isnt any legal way that the US could stop them using that currency if they wanted to.

Ireland will only leave the Euro if they choose to leave, or if everyone else chooses to leave, or if everyone just leaves it. Or perhaps, if the peoples of the Eurozone lose faith in the ability of the Euro to hold its values, in which case a nation may still use it, but it becomes irrelevant like the Zimbabwe dollar.

[Flat Bear]

In Iceland, yes, there was no problem using ISK. Overseas there was. You havn't heard about the capital controls ?

http://www.aciforex.com/docs/markettopics/20101103_Central_Bank_of_Iceland.pdf

According to the ECB, ISK doesn't have an exchange rate. It isn't money. It still isn't, its exchange rate is fixed by the government

http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/index.en.html

The issues with Credit cards in Argentina was that were charging 200% interest and the banks were shut for a month

You may have a point.

The Krona must rise in value and is probably the safest currency of all? It is backed by a real economy without debt. There was a real reluctance to lend to the Icelanders or its government more due to political reasoning than practical reasons but despite that the economy has been seen to grow organically.

It has only strengthened against the GBP by around 15% over the last year and giving the sound economic backing to the ISK and the very weak backing to the pound as well as its exposure to massive debts/interest payments the only way is up.

The Icelanders seem to be doing very well and the standard of living is improving rapidly. There are so many profitable areas not least tourism which for a population the size of say Reading (Berkshire) circa 300,000 could keep the economy doing very nicely on its own. My other half thinks its one of the best destinations for a short break, last one 2 weeks ago, but now the economy is getting stronger by the day and the staff shortages as employment hits 100% prices are starting to rise again. Remember most foodstuffs need be imported (.7% of land arable) so these prices are relatively high but with so much geological wonderments it is a must. Visitor numbers last year jumped around 12% to around 1.23 million mainly due to the 50% drop in the value of its currency but these number are being maintained if not improved upon even as prices rise and the rest of the world languishes in recession.

Being 99.9% of its energy on renewables (100% government target by 2050) it is a very economically enviable position. Power intensive industries are knocking on its doors and the Government has the luxury to chose.

So with a very, very small population (less than the number of migrants that entered the UK in any one of the past 10 years) They have heavy manufacturing industries (alu. and cement etc) a massive tourism industry, an important and quickly growing software and computer industry (some of the global servers are trying to relocate there), A very important marine based economy which is still a massive contributor, as well as a renewed energy industry that is now looking to the energy export market.

Who would I lend money to Iceland or Ireland? It is a no brainer.