Pound 1.51

[Mega]

Hype, after all that the £ has NOT crashed V $ or Euro.....................

Mike

[okaycuckoo]

mmm, ive been waiting for a good while to buy some sterling for a few months at around 1.48, (thinking of converting about 20% of my savings into it, it will almost make me feel British again). the RB contra indicator gives me confidence

Savings in € - yes, sort of.

Savings in $ - no, don't go there, dude!

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Savings in € - yes, sort of.

Savings in $ - no, don't go there, dude!

I have 70% in CHF, 30% in USD

like i say ive been waiting for this near this price a good while, the only real decision is whether to go 20% or 15%.

[wren]

Here we go again. Time to buy gold using the ever reliable RB contra-indicator ™.

I think I'm up 8% since RB's last 'tip' to sell.

Yeah, what's happened to the "Gold back below 800 Dollars" threads?

It's now USD 1117.

That's still less than one third of a month's average salary though. When it gets to two thirds it could be time to talk of bubble territory. Nowhere near yet.

[aussieboy]

The irony is that I no longer need to buy pounds as I exchanged some house money into sterling 18 months ago at 1.49. I have enough for a big downpayment on a cheap house when the times comes--possibly 2012 after another 40-50% comes off the top of the still grossly overpriced market. Most of my reserves are still in $ and I think I will keep it that way!

IR may not help the pound now as the market knows that we cannot afford anything but 0%. We have structural probelms that are beyond fixing until something big breaks first. Bit like a bad broken arm op where the best way forward is to re-break it and start again.

The Housing Market is going to suffer a huge blow this year as there are no more tricks up Gordon's trouser leg to save it. No more IR cuts, not more tax cuts no more immigrants to rely on.

Not sure of anyone else has pointed this out, but houses in the UK are looking very cheap to those holding assets in other currencies e.g. A$. This is not a recipe for a reduction in overseas demand hence London going ok I suppose.

[tahoma]

I was disappointed in a recent Silver purchase until I checked the price in £.

Pension funds can only dream of the returns I get using the RB ContraroBoost system.

[endgame]

Gold going to new highs Realist Bear? It must be if you are saying the opposite. Combined with a falling pound the price for an ounce will soon be over £800 spot. £1000 is the next target for 2011.

It wont be long before the big mac costs £10,000, 100% guaranteed!

[stormymonday_2011]

Not sure of anyone else has pointed this out, but houses in the UK are looking very cheap to those holding assets in other currencies e.g. A$. This is not a recipe for a reduction in overseas demand hence London going ok I suppose.

Not exactly a safe bet unless you plan to stay sterling denominated for the long term old boy.

If you buy and GBP tanks your potential profits are likely to evaporate as soon as you try to convert them back to another currency.

Personally I think the pound would have been under the hammer a lot sooner but Eurozone weakness is drawing traders fire. In addition the hedging opportunities in sterling do not exist to the same extent as they do in the Euro where you can short the currency and offset your risk by buying German bonds. The easy profits that could be made out of GBP at the time of Major/Lawson's ill fated EMU experiment just do not exist since HMG are not forced to defend the currency and actually have some incentives to let it depreciate particularly against the dollar . What better way is there for the government to mitigate their fiscal crisis than to debase the currency in which most of their debt is denominated. Even better there is quite a bit of evidence to suggest HMG has been discretely investing in US treasuries itself to offset this eventuality.

Edited February 26, 2010 by realcrookswearsuits

[dances with sheeple]

"hey mr bear. why are you running around from bank to bond to bank.

why dont you take it easy with cadburys physical gold holding......

boyong...

used to love TV ads in the 80`s, really looked out for some of them and enjoyed watching them, can`t get the TV off quick enough now, it has become overt brainwshing. Some of the great ones were the Hamlet ad in the trenches with "air on G string" in the background, there was a shampoo ad with an animated hero and a great heavy metal soundtrack, and the "Nicole?...Papa?...Papa?...Nicole?" one plus loads of others, and the programs were better, more mind stretching IMO.

[Cogs]

used to love TV ads in the 80`s, really looked out for some of them and enjoyed watching them, can`t get the TV off quick enough now, it has become overt brainwshing. Some of the great ones were the Hamlet ad in the trenches with "air on G string" in the background, there was a shampoo ad with an animated hero and a great heavy metal soundtrack, and the "Nicole?...Papa?...Papa?...Nicole?" one plus loads of others, and the programs were better, more mind stretching IMO.

The all important question is Gold Blend, hit or miss? Saw them the other day, not quite as bad as popular memory would tell you Very much of their time, will be used in social history classes one day if they haven't already! And nothing IMHO beats the eroticism of a proper 1980s soft focus Flake ad.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Cogs

[aussieboy]

Not exactly a safe bet unless you plan to stay sterling denominated for the long term old boy.

If you buy and GBP tanks your potential profits are likely to evaporate as soon as you try to convert them back to another currency.

Personally I think the pound would have been under the hammer a lot sooner but Eurozone weakness is drawing traders fire. In addition the hedging opportunities in sterling do not exist to the same extent as they do in the Euro where you can short the currency and offset your risk by buying German bonds. The easy profits that could be made out of GBP at the time of Major/Lawson's ill fated EMU experiment just do not exist since HMG are not forced to defend the currency and actually have some incentives to let it depreciate particularly against the dollar . What better way is there for the government to mitigate their fiscal crisis than to debase the currency in which most of their debt is denominated. Even better there is quite a bit of evidence to suggest HMG has been discretely investing in US treasuries itself to offset this eventuality.

Quite - not a bad time to buy an option though and for some looking to time a return now is not a bad time. Unless the Aussie goes to <1.5, which would make Australia a bloody expensive place to live rather than just an expensive place on a Big Mac basis.

['Bart']

now, it has become overt brainwshing.

I have a friend who bought 5 sofas over Christmas. If anyone's looking for a bright yellow leather DFS sofa, please contact me him.

[Perishabull]

Here here Tamara, I want you to have my babies, oh sorry I mean I concur with your market view. Sterling looks cheap to me here.

[Realistbear]

mmm, ive been waiting for a good while to buy some sterling for a few months at around 1.48, (thinking of converting about 20% of my savings into it, it will almost make me feel British again). the RB contra indicator gives me confidence

The RB indicator was the most accurate forecast 2 years ago when most were calling an end to the dollar! Sterling hit 2.13 and crashed to 1.37 low hit over a year ago. I was consistent in saying the dollar will survive vs. Sterling and the Euro and even suggested buying Norwegian Kr. as an additional hedge--wish I had folowed my own forecast on the Norway bet!

Where next for the pound? Sentiment is now universally negative and skeletons are rattling out of the cupboard with increasing frequency such as the HBOS loss revelations today. Alice in Wonderland economy, with Alice in Wonderland forecasts--keep away from sterling.

[Guest spp]

The RB indicator was the most accurate forecast 2 years ago when most were calling an end to the dollar! Sterling hit 2.13 and crashed to 1.37 low hit over a year ago. I was consistent in saying the dollar will survive vs. Sterling and the Euro and even suggested buying Norwegian Kr. as an additional hedge--wish I had folowed my own forecast on the Norway bet!

Where next for the pound? Sentiment is now universally negative and skeletons are rattling out of the cupboard with increasing frequency such as the HBOS loss revelations today. Alice in Wonderland economy, with Alice in Wonderland forecasts--keep away from sterling.

Alice in Wonderland economy. A nice way of putting it RB. The uk's economy over the last 10 years really was based on easy fiat money being thrown around. What now?

Yes they could play with the pound for a bit longer, but I wouldn't be buying it!

You really can call Gold tho RB. If you had bought it each time you said it was going down...you would be a very rich man.

[Realistbear]

Gold going to new highs Realist Bear? It must be if you are saying the opposite. Combined with a falling pound the price for an ounce will soon be over £800 spot. £1000 is the next target for 2011.

It wont be long before the big mac costs £10,000, 100% guaranteed!

Gold bugs will always say gold is a one way bet just like houses were the one way bet in the Brown golden years. You have to remember that gold is the worst investment of them all and has the worst record compared with just about any other investment vehicle including stocks, bonds (now outpacing stocks LT), houses, pre 1960 Les Paul guitars and pre-66 Fenders, collector cars.... Peaked at around $830 in 1980 ($2843 in todays values) and worth around $1100 today. That will be an investment second only to Mugabe dollars?

Why has gold been the worst performer over the past 30 years? Because it is all based on sentiment and investment fever. Gold bugs do well when they buy but most lose because they wait too long to take their profits. Buy low but do not forget to sell when high and at todays prices Gold is looking very bubbleicious just like house prices at the peak when the EAs were still saying deman will keep houses rising forever.

Pricing gold against Mugabe dollars (Sterling) will not be a hedge to save your investment if gold collapses dramatically. You need to base your gold value against a basket of currencies for a more accurate valuation.

[Errol]

Gold is going to $1650+ and then on to probably over $5000 an ounce.

This will happen within the next few years.

[Realistbear]

Alice in Wonderland economy. A nice way of putting it RB. The uk's economy over the last 10 years really was based on easy fiat money being thrown around. What now?

Yes they could play with the pound for a bit longer, but I wouldn't be buying it!

You really can call Gold tho RB. If you had bought it each time you said it was going down...you would be a very rich man.

Last year I reommended multi-national stocks. Instead of gold I took up a minority position in Honeywell that outperformed gold by a big mile last year. $40 at the close last night from low $20s at the beginning of last year when I was forecasting a rise. That will all be in US $ of course.

Over the LT gold is the worst investment fo all the major investment vehicles. This is why most FPs say to hold a few gold coins to diversify a portfolio. I still hold Ag in US Silver dollars and uncirc, 25c pieces but bought those back in the 80's and have never got around to selling.

[Guest spp]

There is a time for Gold/Silver. You just don't get it.

So how has it done over the last 10 years??

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

The RB indicator was the most accurate forecast 2 years ago when most were calling an end to the dollar! Sterling hit 2.13 and crashed to 1.37 low hit over a year ago. I was consistent in saying the dollar will survive vs. Sterling and the Euro and even suggested buying Norwegian Kr. as an additional hedge--wish I had folowed my own forecast on the Norway bet!

Where next for the pound? Sentiment is now universally negative and skeletons are rattling out of the cupboard with increasing frequency such as the HBOS loss revelations today. Alice in Wonderland economy, with Alice in Wonderland forecasts--keep away from sterling.

dissapointed in you there RB, you highlight a completely correct action and use it to justify a completely wrong action. They are in fact complete opposite actions based on identical reasoning

Red is exactly why you should have bought the dollar, because if most were bearish on it theyd have sold already by definition, requiring only a small number of buyers to change the trend

Compare this to argument 2

Blue is exactly why it is most likely the wrong time to sell, because if there is universal bearishness on it they have already sold by definition, requiring only a small number of buyers to change the trend

Edited February 27, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka

[Errol]

[Realistbear]

There is a time for Gold/Silver. You just don't get it.

So how has it done over the last 10 years??

If you bought a few months ago at or near the peak you are very nervous. If you bought when it was $900 you are wondering whether you will have time to get your money back if there is a sudden sell off because James "Jimbo" Rogers sneezes. If you bought at $500 you are thinking that doubling over 3 years is not bad. If you bought in 1980 you are still crying. Thus it all depends when, exactly, you bought and when you actually sold--the rest is what if-ism.

The answer to your question is simply based on the profit you actually made by comparing your buy sell price. Gold bugs tend not to sell which is why so few realise a gain. There is awlays the thought of "what if" the price went to the moon and I cashed in at the top of the market. Buffett says that most people lose by waiting for that extra 5% profit instead of getting out while the pendulum is still swinging in the right direction.

[Guest Noodle]

Now Errol . . . take that table and shove it up Brown's ar . . .

[Realistbear]

dissapointed in you there RB, you highlight a completely correct action and use it to justify a completely wrong action. They are in fact complete opposite actions based on identical reasoning

Red is exactly why you should have bought the dollar, because if most were bearish on it theyd have sold already by definition, requiring only a small number of buyers to change the trend

Compare this to argument 2

Blue is exactly why it is most likely the wrong time to sell, e if there is universal bearishness on it they have already sold by definition, requiring only a small number of buyers to change the trend

I am not into stochastic analysis but rely on trying to understand the fundamentals. All I know is that I hold 2/3rds of my assetts in US $ which places me in a better position than if I held Sterling. Since returning to the UK in 2005 I have not transferred more than 1/3rd into sterling believing that sterling would not last at 2.13 ish vs the dollar. Many on here were predicting the end of the US economy while I continued to hold $. There is universal bearishness vs the £ because fundamentals say there should be. We are the third worst economy in the world in relation to debt:GDP with no recovery in sight. Sterling has held up remarkably well over the last year but it seems clear that with houses about to resume the downward trajectory spending is going to collapse, jobs will be lost and we run a risk of depression. The US has always been the flight to safety bet and it will remain so for many years yet. The pendulum for the dollar is in the early stages of swinging in a positive direction as the real buying is not yet happening while the world waits to see if the Euro can hold itslef together. The pendulum for gold is close to the turning point as evidenced by universal bullishness and herd mentality which is Buffett's sell signal--I think Buffett is right in this.

['Bart']

Gold bugs will always say gold is a one way bet

I'm sure most will concede its volatility.