Does Anyone Else Get The Feeling That The Tide Has Turned ?

[poorman]

Banks lend money out of thin air and yes it is usury, but the power started with those who owned the gold and it still secretly all controlled by those who still own the gold.

This is no longer socialism or capitalism imo. Its a plutocracy. The rich (being banks) are gaining more control and ability to govern...

What's the future of this it all keeps going this way? a monopoly of socialist banks that govern the world and decide how much you're allowed to earn on you're weekly pay check by controlling a nations economy??? (oh wait! time to wake up )

Everyone just pray for a breakthrough in tech called free energy, that is our only hope.

[stu531]

Purely anecdotally, I strongly suspect we are looking at the start of the second big drop in house prices.

Why? Well as Christmas nears, folk who have had their houses on the market are starting to drop them now. After Christmas is the time that divorce rates increase, so houses will be unceremoniously dumped on the market. Couple that with the fact that mortgages are NOT getting any cheaper. I suspect we'll see 10% in the first few months of the new year - or even starting now.

[jborg]

I wish there was an MP I could pay to read that out in Parliament.

There was a simpler time when a brown envelope handed to an MP did the job, but not now.

Could imagine Dan Hannan giving it a good shot...

[Guest UK Debt Slave]

From what I've read on the news lately and from conversation with friends and colleagues ( awaiting their P45 ), I do get the distinct feeling that sentiment is taking a turn for the better (i.e. towards reality, or as the BBC would say downwards ( read as upwards ) ) .

I'd say the word is out, that is, we are fec'd. The bad news just keeps on coming despite the BBC broadcasting the complete opposite. It's still there, bad news, it's everywhere. A couple of my friends have startd doubting the media ( unprompted by me ). Shops are shutting. Everyone is skint. Christmas is coming. No credit. Job losses a plenty. Tiny Tim aint getting any goose this year

( please note: goose is a fabulous christmas bird, much like the countess of nowhere, quite fatty but tastes great and makes fabulous roast potatoes).

But hey, house prices are rising (my a**e ).

Everyone's realised next year will be bad. The election is scaring them, well, what comes after is scaring them. They know, they have realised, we must pay the piper (greedy banker), after the election the party is over.

( i recall 2 weeks ago talking to a solicitor couple in london I know. joint income £220K per annum, saying something like.."i mean, we'd like to buy a house, maybe next year, but maybe it's just me but when I look at the asking prices I think....surely this is wrong"...."yes" I said..."it is"...i pointed out they were in the top 2% income bracket in the U.K. but could hardly afford a flat ).

The only people not worried are the bankers/politicians and public sector workers ( all one in the same in my book ). They should be the most worried.

The fools buying houses are even getting nervous, ive seen 5 fall through this week alone.

The head in the sand approach isnt working.

Spending money you dont have, isnt working ( obviously ).

Illegally spending skint tax payers money on sofas, curtains and your wifies unemployed dope head cambridge graduate brother is isnt a jolly university prank anymore, you might well be locked up for it ( at best ) or be hung from a bridge in london ( at worst ).

Illegal wars in countries we dont care about, arent working. Stop them pleasem now, they dont work.

Printing money and giving it to your banker friends to give to themselves as bonuses so they can buy houses...isnt working.

Immigration isnt working. At best we like the cheap labour, at worse we resent them and hate them.

Keeping the pound low so foreign people get to buy our houses cheap, isnt working. Ban foreign home owner ship so we can afford houses.

Keeping the pound low so we holiday in the U.K. isnt working, it's s**t and depressing here, we like the sun, let us go there for 7 poxy days a year, it;s the leats we deserve after being taxed into the ground.

Most of the population of the U.K. isnt working.

The NHS isnt working.

Car scrappage isnt working. ( what a joke )

Handouts for fat lazy b*****rds and/or 16 year old preganant girls isnt working.

Local councils, council tax, golden government pensions arent working.

Speed Cameras, CCTV cameras and erosion of our civil liverties isnt working.

Identity cards arent working.

Government contracts ( i.e. lining your mates pockets for a kick back ) arent working.

The trains, arent working.

Petrol prices, whack them up, you know we'd rather pay for it than eat. That idea doesnt work.

The banks, despite their loans and bail outs are still, bankrupt ( ironic word), they're not working.

Inflated house prices arent working....let them drop so a) we can afford to have a roof over our heads and can afford to eat. Legislate against speculation in property. It's f**king cold and wet in this country, we need a roof. If it was spain, f**k, we'd happil;y sleep outside.

The media and their BTL empires ( not to be mistaken with BLT empires which I think is a strange biscuit covered with icing sugar, topped with a maraschino cherry and filled with bacon lettuce and tomatoes, just as wrong as a BTL empire but better for you. p,.s. if you dont get that, have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_biscuit ), arent working, they are basically insider trading and should be held to account for this.

Gordon Bennet Brown/Incapability Brown/The one eye'd Brown machine isnt working. I wish he'd leave now and stop destroying this wonderful country.

I think what I am trying to say is....people have realised, this pretend recovery really isnt working. The U.K. and it's great social state isnt working. Will the people on benefits please move to Poland and become plumbers so the rest of us can afford food, please.

Sorry, ranting again

P.S. low (non-existent) interest rates arent working...they are just keeping the stupid and profligate in houses whilst the people who have funded this scam are robbed blind. That scenario wont work long term. The savers are the clever ones, they know they are being robbed blind. They will vote this government out. They will take their money else where. The savers will not...save you

The system is NOT designed to work to your benefit

It is designed to rape you.

You are a mere resource to be exploited. We are pawns in their big commerce game.

Politicians are there to make you believe you have choices but you don't have any choice. You have OWNERS. They own YOU

They own and control everything.

We are cattle grazing on their land.

[Guest UK Debt Slave]

Banks lend money out of thin air and yes it is usury, but the power started with those who owned the gold and it still secretly all controlled by those who still own the gold.

This is no longer socialism or capitalism imo. Its a plutocracy. The rich (being banks) are gaining more control and ability to govern...

What's the future of this it all keeps going this way? a monopoly of socialist banks that govern the world and decide how much you're allowed to earn on you're weekly pay check by controlling a nations economy??? (oh wait! time to wake up )

Everyone just pray for a breakthrough in tech called free energy, that is our only hope.

Precisely

The central banking system is an elaborate global system of resource allocation. The World Bank and the IMF have deliberately kept most of the world in abject poverty for the last century. Now they are expanding the globalisation of poverty into the developed nations and they are doing a fine job. All our governmnets are operating in bankruptcy and we have amassed debts that can never be repaid. Now they are using 'carbon use' as a their means to totally destroy the wealth of the developed nations.

Obama is to agree to cut US carbon emissions 83% by 2050. Just stop and think about that for a minute and the implications of what is being proposed. I can't believe people aren't out on the streets in every american city with their machine guns blazing.

Edited November 26, 2009 by UK Debt Slave

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

I can't believe people aren't out on the streets in every american city with their machine guns blazing.

its coming

[Guest UK Debt Slave]

its coming

I certainly wouldn't rule it out

And I wouldn't rule out martial law and a 'shoot to kill and ask questions later' response from the US government either.

If America falls, we really are done for. America is the only country on the planet with any possibility of taking back its liberty.

They even want to ban airguns here now. The ban has already been approved in Scotland and it's a dead cert it will come here pretty soon.

The only defense we have is harsh language!

[benthebuilder]

I certainly wouldn't rule it out

And I wouldn't rule out martial law and a 'shoot to kill and ask questions later' response from the US government either.

If America falls, we really are done for. America is the only country on the planet with any possibility of taking back its liberty.

They even want to ban airguns here now. The ban has already been approved in Scotland and it's a dead cert it will come here pretty soon.

The only defense we have is harsh language!

I dont think so.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226688/Grandfather-arrested-dawn-held-police-cell-SIX-hours-using-single-swear-word-council-official.html

[abharrisson]

I used to view the future as being pretty bleak, much the same as the OP, but while my views have not entirely changed ( I would not entirely discount a second destructive dip) I do now feel theres a better than even chance that the actual destruction is over.... not that I predict run away growth from here on in, but perhaps a prolonged period of stability ( ups and downs).

In a strange way I'd feel much better if I was convinced one way or the other, but I fear its currently just too close to call.

[bear_or_bull]

I was offered 4.9x joint salary, expat mortgage (no doc) today.

Nothing, and I mean, nothing has changed.

We won't learn until we way over the edge. Pray for inflation...

[shindigger]

Look the news blog on the front page.

Utter ******ing carnage this week.

[meow]

From what I've read on the news lately and from conversation with friends and colleagues ( awaiting their P45 ), I do get the distinct feeling that sentiment is taking a turn for the better (i.e. towards reality, or as the BBC would say downwards ( read as upwards ) ) .

I'd say the word is out, that is, we are fec'd. The bad news just keeps on coming despite the BBC broadcasting the complete opposite. It's still there, bad news, it's everywhere. A couple of my friends have startd doubting the media ( unprompted by me ). Shops are shutting. Everyone is skint. Christmas is coming. No credit. Job losses a plenty. Tiny Tim aint getting any goose this year

( please note: goose is a fabulous christmas bird, much like the countess of nowhere, quite fatty but tastes great and makes fabulous roast potatoes).

But hey, house prices are rising (my a**e ).

Everyone's realised next year will be bad. The election is scaring them, well, what comes after is scaring them. They know, they have realised, we must pay the piper (greedy banker), after the election the party is over.

*snip rant* (you know the rest of it....)

Couldn't help but think of this as I was reading it....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmzaBvKzrZI

I chose something else, and the reasons, there are no reasons, who needs reasons when you've got credit.

[Tonkers]

Couldn't help but think of this as I was reading it....

I chose something else, and the reasons, there are no reasons, who needs reasons when you've got credit.

I used to have a sign in the shop I worked in: "Why Steal When You Can Get It On Credit"

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

I dont think so.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226688/Grandfather-arrested-dawn-held-police-cell-SIX-hours-using-single-swear-word-council-official.html

Mr Catcheside, who is chairman of his residents' group, has been campaigning for three years for safety improvements.

But when an official visiting the site prevented him from listening to a phone call to his supervisor on October 30, he finally lost his temper and said: 'Don't you tell me what I can and can't do in my own ****ing place.'

The official complained of feeling 'threatened' and six days later Mr Catcheside was arrested at 5.35am on suspicion of 'causing harassment, alarm or distress in a public place'.

******ing gestapo

link

[lets get it right]

Purely anecdotally, I strongly suspect we are looking at the start of the second big drop in house prices.

What it takes for that to happen is lots of people agreeing with you. You're in a minority of a couple of dozen.

I went to look at a property today - rang agent to enquire about price - offers invited above - he said they already have an offer 25k above asking - open house on Saturday - I bet there will be 50 people there and it will sell for 75k above asking.

It's a knock down and rebuild job - and I just KNOW (in fact I know personally a few of them) at least 20 builders/developers around here have the money and belief to buy it, spend 250k building a big new one, and will sell it next summer and make 150k profit.

There still seems to be pleaty of money about chasing property in the 600k to 1million range.

My anecdotal evidence, based on what is actually happening NOW, in my area, is that your generation is totally screwed. You'll have to take on unimaginable levels of debt to get on. If you don't, whereas once I would have expected prices to fall, now it seems you'll rent and pay enough rent to keep others in clover.

People used to joke on here - taking the piss out of bulls - 'it's different this time' used to be the jibe of choice. I used to agree with them. I even joined in with the jibes.

Not any more. It does seem to be f*cking different this time.

F*ck the lot of them, politicians, bankers, the BOE - the lot of them.

[Y-QUERK]

Not any more. It does seem to be f*cking different this time.

F*ck the lot of them, politicians, bankers, the BOE - the lot of them.

Patience...

[lets get it right]

Patience...

But how much do you need? Already been waiting 6 years ... false dawn in 2004/5 - hopes dashed by reductions in interest rates - false dawn in late 2007 - 2008 - credit crunch! no less! How the barstards going to get round that one?

No problems! QE, 0.5% interest rates, printy printy ... what do think - wait 10 years?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The dubai thing has surprised a few people

I definitely get the feeling we are at the turning point.

The FTSE has been pumped out, the mugs are jumping it ( like with gold, like with houses ).

It's a matter of time before their is utter panic.

I do think it's coming.

[Dorkins]

But how much do you need? Already been waiting 6 years ... false dawn in 2004/5 - hopes dashed by reductions in interest rates - false dawn in late 2007 - 2008 - credit crunch! no less! How the barstards going to get round that one?

No problems! QE, 0.5% interest rates, printy printy ... what do think - wait 10 years?

Look at what happened after the 1990 peak - house prices fell not only back to normal earnings ratios, but actually a fair way below them. There's a good reason for it: think about all the mortgage debt that was taken on in the 1983-90 house price boom. That's money from the future that has already been spent, it's out of the game now, it is not competing with other wage £ to buy houses (as it is too busy paying off negative equity). Now take that situation and more than double it. House prices are going to be so low it will be ridiculous. They could easily get to 2.5 or even 2x incomes. Every mug who spent £400k on a flat in Hackney in 2006 is now out of the game, he can't compete with you for that nice detached house as he is too busy paying off a huge mortgage on a squalid flat. There is so much debt to pay back now. And don't seriously believe they can inflate this one away either. Sure, they'll try, but if inflation lifts off and the bond market forces interest rates to 15% what do you think that'll do to house prices? And what happened when Japan held interest rates at 0% and printed money for years? House prices fell 60%+! HPC is coming, there's no way to stop it. The reason it looks different this time is that it is: it's much bigger than ever before.

[Confounded]

What it takes for that to happen is lots of people agreeing with you. You're in a minority of a couple of dozen.

I went to look at a property today - rang agent to enquire about price - offers invited above - he said they already have an offer 25k above asking - open house on Saturday - I bet there will be 50 people there and it will sell for 75k above asking.

It's a knock down and rebuild job - and I just KNOW (in fact I know personally a few of them) at least 20 builders/developers around here have the money and belief to buy it, spend 250k building a big new one, and will sell it next summer and make 150k profit.

There still seems to be pleaty of money about chasing property in the 600k to 1million range.

My anecdotal evidence, based on what is actually happening NOW, in my area, is that your generation is totally screwed. You'll have to take on unimaginable levels of debt to get on. If you don't, whereas once I would have expected prices to fall, now it seems you'll rent and pay enough rent to keep others in clover.

People used to joke on here - taking the piss out of bulls - 'it's different this time' used to be the jibe of choice. I used to agree with them. I even joined in with the jibes.

Not any more. It does seem to be f*cking different this time.

F*ck the lot of them, politicians, bankers, the BOE - the lot of them.

I believe what you are saying, although I personally get the feeling that the next wave down is upon us. I believe what you are witnessing atm is the wealth destruction phase, this draws the money in from all the people you know who have the funds (built up in the bubble) to buy into the deflating bubble thinking they are grabbing a bargain. The last 7 months is looking like it is going to be very similar to the 30's where more money was lost post crash than pre crash, one of the unintended consequences of government intervention.

I could buy 2 of the houses we are currently renting with cash and I have a young family which some bulls on here claim is verging on abuse bringing them up in rented accommodation. I have absolutely no interest in buying a house at a 60 year real high, if someone else feels they want to help in the deflation process that is fine by me. If the central banks are as insane as some people here believe they are regarding inflation there will be better places for your money than bricks and mortar.

Don't loose hope yet! My view is nothing has been set in stone yet regarding the inflation/deflation argument, in fact while the central banks remain in control there will be waves of both. When they loose control it has to go one way and that will only be determinable nearer the time.

[winkie]

I believe what you are saying, although I personally get the feeling that the next wave down is upon us. I believe what you are witnessing atm is the wealth destruction phase, this draws the money in from all the people you know who have the funds (built up in the bubble) to buy into the deflating bubble thinking they are grabbing a bargain. The last 7 months is looking like it is going to be very similar to the 30's where more money was lost post crash than pre crash, one of the unintended consequences of government intervention.

I could buy 2 of the houses we are currently renting with cash and I have a young family which some bulls on here claim is verging on abuse bringing them up in rented accommodation. I have absolutely no interest in buying a house at a 60 year real high, if someone else feels they want to help in the deflation process that is fine by me. If the central banks are as insane as some people here believe they are regarding inflation there will be better places for your money than bricks and mortar.

Don't loose hope yet! My view is nothing has been set in stone yet regarding the inflation/deflation argument, in fact while the central banks remain in control there will be waves of both. When they loose control it has to go one way and that will only be determinable nearer the time.

The tide has turned for some, depends how you look at it and how you have prepared and planned for it....crises creates opportunities.

Different times = Different ways of doing things.

[Wario]

I went to look at a property today - rang agent to enquire about price - offers invited above - he said they already have an offer 25k above asking - open house on Saturday - I bet there will be 50 people there and it will sell for 75k above asking.

Which is what? (sorry, don't mean to come over all peremptory, just inquisitive due to congenital ignorance)

It's a knock down and rebuild job - and I just KNOW (in fact I know personally a few of them) at least 20 builders/developers around here have the money and belief to buy it, spend 250k building a big new one, and will sell it next summer and make 150k profit.

Ar. So the devilhopers is just buying land. With some rubble encumbering it. Fair enow. How much they'll make is not yet apparent. "Unrealised profits" and all that.

There still seems to be pleaty of money about chasing property in the 600k to 1million range.

Alas, the rich shall always be with us.

However, this is quite interesting. On the grounds that the non-rich will not be buying vasto South Fork stylee mansions. Or going out to work to try and make enough to cover the rent, as well as food. What's the point?

Better off ('rationally', if not morally) sitting on your **** and letting the social stump up, since one's job's likely to evaporate (probably eastwards) next week, and there's no point taking the risk on a mortgage (especially if you've got kids), since all available property has just lifted off for the stratosphere ("To the Moon, Sibleh, to the Moon" ) beyond the reach of mortal men, forever.

So, who will be buying houses?

[abharrisson]

Look at what happened after the 1990 peak - house prices fell not only back to normal earnings ratios, but actually a fair way below them. There's a good reason for it: think about all the mortgage debt that was taken on in the 1983-90 house price boom. That's money from the future that has already been spent, it's out of the game now, it is not competing with other wage £ to buy houses (as it is too busy paying off negative equity). Now take that situation and more than double it. House prices are going to be so low it will be ridiculous. They could easily get to 2.5 or even 2x incomes. Every mug who spent £400k on a flat in Hackney in 2006 is now out of the game, he can't compete with you for that nice detached house as he is too busy paying off a huge mortgage on a squalid flat. There is so much debt to pay back now. And don't seriously believe they can inflate this one away either. Sure, they'll try, but if inflation lifts off and the bond market forces interest rates to 15% what do you think that'll do to house prices? And what happened when Japan held interest rates at 0% and printed money for years? House prices fell 60%+! HPC is coming, there's no way to stop it. The reason it looks different this time is that it is: it's much bigger than ever before.

Your argument reads well and could for all I know be spot on, I am just not convinced.... I don't for one minute think we'll see house prices galloping away but equally I don't think that an overcorrection is now likely. If pushed to plump for a route forwards, I am going for a prolonged reduction in prices perhaps making up 10-15% over five or six years. In reallity it'll feel like loads of small rises or falls or stability with what little inflation we have doing the real work. I can't see the economy getting much worse but I can't see it getting much better quickly either. So I can't see an economic driver for a real further crash, neither can I see one for strong growth. House prices are too high but in a low interest rate flat economy I can't see them being corrected by a crash, rather it'll be a long and slow correction.

If anything calling a reduction in house prices in 2006 was much easier than prediciting the future now.... I have my own view ... but really I think anything is possible

[kingsgate]

Unless or until rates rise quite a lot, I think that we are in for a long boring period of stagnation.

Prices will fall further.

Transaction volume will be low, many won't sell to avoid crystallising negative equity or because they won't be able to get a comparable mortgage on anywhere else.

Only those who HAVE to sell or buy will do so.

The lack of property on the market will perversely keep up the prices of the few places for sale, because many buyers will be chasing, for example, a good-sized family home.