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Nationwide House Price Rises – Don't Believe The Hype

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http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/news/p...8560&Page=2

By Tony Bonsignore | 12:49:19 | 30 July 2009

Sure, average house prices have stabilised a bit over the past few weeks, but that is on the back of very little activity. For the most part, the market is deadlocked, potential buyers unwilling or unable to buy, and homeowners unwilling or unable to sell.

Millions of overstretched owners, bailed out by record interest rate cuts, are continuing to hold firm, praying for the moment when values start to inflate again. This, in turn, is restricting supply. When and if that pent-up supply is unleashed on the market (as it so nearly was in mid 2008) values can only fall sharply.

Unemployment is still rising, too, and the economy contracting, which can only further hit confidence. Plus we still have the little matter of paying off the record amounts of debt we racked up during the last bout of housing insanity.

All this media talk of green shoots is doing little to prepare us for the long hard slog that lays ahead, one suspects.

Against this background, Nationwide’s prediction can be seen for what it really is: a self-interested guess-in the-dark from an organisation that has absolutely no idea where house prices are going, but desperately wants to see an end to the current market malaise.

And that goes for the rest of them, too: Halifax, Rightmove, RICS, Hometrack…they are all as clueless as each other.

The only thing we can rely on is their determination to get as much publicity as they possibly can, and to talk up a market that was allowed to spiral way out of control and is now, quite naturally, crashing back to earth.

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To be fair a couple of years ago I even thought a crash was on. Once the government got involved with their measures anyone with sense knew it wasn't going to happen.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

So you were predicting a crash in July 2007, just before the peak were you?

little fibber!

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

Yes, you are quite right. The house price crash is over! Houses can continue to climb at 10% a year with falling wages and rising unemployment! Hail King Gordon's Miracle Machine! The first time in history such a feat has been achieved! By 2020 the average house will cost £450,000 and the average wage will by £20,000!! Hurray for Sibleynomics!!

As Baldrick once said: "The Great War is over, Sir! 1914 to 1917!!" So you're in great company.

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And what if this bounce lasts the rest of your natural life? What next?

Emigrate, buy a few acres for the equivalent of a studio flat, and leave the loonies to the asylum

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It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

If there was a HPC coming all the old hands would still be posting. Why do you think they have gone back under their rock? :rolleyes:

To be fair a couple of years ago I even thought a crash was on. Once the government got involved with their measures anyone with sense knew it wasn't going to happen.

Why don't you all just get on with your lives now and accept you won't be buying a 4 bed house for £10,000?.

Must be a bitter pill. One minute you think you're going to be living in a big posh house then BANG. Back to reality. You're renting some rich twot's converted house bedsit. Nothings changed and no hope of getting on property ladder.

After all your vile comments during the last 2 years please let me be the first to say you richly deserve it. Work and save like everybody else did. Nothing is for nothing in this world and bad intentions to other people will come back on you. Oh! like it has now. :P

Have a lovely day.

Might still be another couple of rounds to go yet Sibbles.

The B of E won't keep to a 0.5 base rate for more than another 12 months (probably less) and as rates go up so will unemployment, bringing another round of repo's. Too many BTL's in existence now with the "accidental" landlords and this career will go on suffering for another 3 years at least as the BTL glory days are over - every class of investment has it's day.

If we get house price rises in 6 or 7 out of the next 9 months, then it may be fair to say the current HPC is over but until then don't wet yourself :o

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Good article, it pretty much articulates my feelings.

You can always tell the good ones, they get a double dose of Sibley vitriol ;).

Article re-posted due to thread being taken off topic by a troll :rolleyes:.

By Tony Bonsignore | 12:49:19 | 30 July 2009

Sure, average house prices have stabilised a bit over the past few weeks, but that is on the back of very little activity. For the most part, the market is deadlocked, potential buyers unwilling or unable to buy, and homeowners unwilling or unable to sell.

Millions of overstretched owners, bailed out by record interest rate cuts, are continuing to hold firm, praying for the moment when values start to inflate again. This, in turn, is restricting supply. When and if that pent-up supply is unleashed on the market (as it so nearly was in mid 2008) values can only fall sharply.

Unemployment is still rising, too, and the economy contracting, which can only further hit confidence. Plus we still have the little matter of paying off the record amounts of debt we racked up during the last bout of housing insanity.

All this media talk of green shoots is doing little to prepare us for the long hard slog that lays ahead, one suspects.

Against this background, Nationwide’s prediction can be seen for what it really is: a self-interested guess-in the-dark from an organisation that has absolutely no idea where house prices are going, but desperately wants to see an end to the current market malaise.

And that goes for the rest of them, too: Halifax, Rightmove, RICS, Hometrack…they are all as clueless as each other.

The only thing we can rely on is their determination to get as much publicity as they possibly can, and to talk up a market that was allowed to spiral way out of control and is now, quite naturally, crashing back to earth.

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Who is this Tony Bonsignore guy anyway? Just because he spouts some HPC propaganda he has got some wisdom right?

Funny how anything from anyone bearish is being taken as gospel on this site... :lol:

Fact remains, HPI is back. :P or if you prefer HPC is over.

Best window to buy a house was early this year (when I was saying to buy and fix the mortgage on the then good rates).

Another missed train scenario beckons :o

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It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

Who exactly is squirming? You must have some individuals in mind when you say that.

Luckily it seems debt is wealth and everything is fine.

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Let's try and be balanced here for second.

Line up the factors on either side of the argument.

+ recovery

exceptionally low interest rates

improving affordability relative to earnings

the long term supply/demand dynamic

various Government schemes attempting to resuscitate the sector

improving credit availability

lack of forced sellers (so far)

+ bull trap

unemployment rate which appears to be going parabolic

rising swap rates

rental yields that are dropping like a stone

unsold supply/repos

Anyone got any more? Try to be balanced, I'm trying to seriously weigh these up.

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Immigration factors?

Many bulls argued the flood of East european immigrants would prop up BTL because of the need to rent. Anyone coming for only a year or two would probably not have the funds or the intention to buy. But there are now as many, if not more, leaving as arriving .... aren't there?

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Anyone got any more? Try to be balanced, I'm trying to seriously weigh these up.

Yep, increased supply of properties this autumn/winter from oldies hit by the swine flu

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Anyone got any more? Try to be balanced, I'm trying to seriously weigh these up.

The stock market appears to be in recovery and loads of companies appear to reporting better than expected earnings. Although all may not be as it seems with this.

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<snip> Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. <snip>

Yup, many of the other less dogmatic trolls have been slung out or buggered off.

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Guest Steve Cook
Let's try and be balanced here for second.

Line up the factors on either side of the argument.

+ recovery

exceptionally low interest rates

improving affordability relative to earnings

the long term supply/demand dynamic

various Government schemes attempting to resuscitate the sector

improving credit availability

lack of forced sellers (so far)

+ bull trap

unemployment rate which appears to be going parabolic

rising swap rates

rental yields that are dropping like a stone

unsold supply/repos

Anyone got any more? Try to be balanced, I'm trying to seriously weigh these up.

In favour of house price rises

QE (if it bleeds through to wages/borrowing)

Low bank of England base rates (as long as de-coupling of base rates from market rates does not occur

Some improvement in affordability ratios

QE may lead to inflation which might have a nominal upwards effect on house prices

In favour of further falls

Unemployment rising

Wages held constant/falling

Huge public debts that will take decades to repay through higher taxes.

The lenders show no immediate sign of returning to supplying easy credit

One final thing

Even when a "recovery" arrives and our economies show signs of growing again, the same resource supply constraints that pushed our economies over are still waiting in the wings to come back and bite us on the *rse. As soon as any recovery gets under way, the price of oil will shootback up to 150+ per barrel. When that happens, our economies will collapse again in very short order.

What we are now looking at is a series of collapses all the way to the bottom over the next few decades. We will still get economic cycles. It's just that each low will be now be always bigger than each high.

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You all seem to hang you hat and labor the moot point of unemployment so I'd just like to put you straight:

The only reason unemployment is rising:

At the start of the downturn very clever people cut back their fixed overhead costs as much as possible, as soon as possible. Look at house building for example, people got burned last time and this time they knew - shed as much cost ASAP.

Now that things are picking up they're reluctant to employ any unnecessary people until they really have reached the turnover cap with their current (reduced) workforce. Sensible.

The ones who were at the sharp end (say, people who pull up trees to make way for houses) who acted first are not employing just yet. The ones later down the road who feel the pinch last (roofers, glaziers) are now shedding jobs as the work dries up for them.

It's just a little lag and now construction is picking up employment will fall, then rise sharply.

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It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

If there was a HPC coming all the old hands would still be posting. Why do you think they have gone back under their rock? :rolleyes:

To be fair a couple of years ago I even thought a crash was on. Once the government got involved with their measures anyone with sense knew it wasn't going to happen.

Why don't you all just get on with your lives now and accept you won't be buying a 4 bed house for £10,000?.

Must be a bitter pill. One minute you think you're going to be living in a big posh house then BANG. Back to reality. You're renting some rich twot's converted house bedsit. Nothings changed and no hope of getting on property ladder.

After all your vile comments during the last 2 years please let me be the first to say you richly deserve it. Work and save like everybody else did. Nothing is for nothing in this world and bad intentions to other people will come back on you. Oh! like it has now. :P

Have a lovely day.

Thanks, I will.

My house - paid for.

Bad intentions, you say ? What`s wrong with not hoping for, and expecting house prices to reduce to what most would see as reasonable. I`d say bad intentions were wishing for, and celebrating higher house prices. I have friends with kids/grown up kids that stand very little chance of purchasing their own homes, unless they get a very well paid job. I managed to do it on a modest income, and I am grateful that I could. In my situation, I`d expect to get a few "vile comments" if I welcomed higher house prices.

IF further HPI is set to stay, due to a shortage of properties in the UK, then our government has failed us.

If further HPI is set to stay, due to speculation and media hype, then we are living among selfish, greedy short-sighted b*****ds.

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It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

If there was a HPC coming all the old hands would still be posting. Why do you think they have gone back under their rock? :rolleyes:

To be fair a couple of years ago I even thought a crash was on. Once the government got involved with their measures anyone with sense knew it wasn't going to happen.

Why don't you all just get on with your lives now and accept you won't be buying a 4 bed house for £10,000?.

Must be a bitter pill. One minute you think you're going to be living in a big posh house then BANG. Back to reality. You're renting some rich twot's converted house bedsit. Nothings changed and no hope of getting on property ladder.

After all your vile comments during the last 2 years please let me be the first to say you richly deserve it. Work and save like everybody else did. Nothing is for nothing in this world and bad intentions to other people will come back on you. Oh! like it has now. :P

Have a lovely day.

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AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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>WIPES EYES< AH, SQUIGGLY, YOU TRULY ARE THE MASTER OF UNINTENTIONAL HUMOR!

Thanks for brightening our day, and sorry about the capslock.

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It's really been funny watching you all squirming over the last couple of months.

The HPC thing is over. I know it, you know it and the general public knows it. Been great noticing who's vanished on here as well. One things for sure.

If there was a HPC coming all the old hands would still be posting. Why do you think they have gone back under their rock? :rolleyes:

To be fair a couple of years ago I even thought a crash was on. Once the government got involved with their measures anyone with sense knew it wasn't going to happen.

Why don't you all just get on with your lives now and accept you won't be buying a 4 bed house for £10,000?.

Must be a bitter pill. One minute you think you're going to be living in a big posh house then BANG. Back to reality. You're renting some rich twot's converted house bedsit. Nothings changed and no hope of getting on property ladder.

After all your vile comments during the last 2 years please let me be the first to say you richly deserve it. Work and save like everybody else did. Nothing is for nothing in this world and bad intentions to other people will come back on you. Oh! like it has now. :P

Have a lovely day.

So Sibley, why is it that the collapse of transactions in the property market continues? See:

http://www.introducertoday.co.uk/News/Stor...e=news_features

UK housing market has 'virtually ground to halt'

Wednesday 29th July 2009

Despite the latest land registry figures showing the first positive housing market growth for over a year of 0.1 per cent, Property Portfolio Rescue said the UK market is still going nowhere.

“House sales volumes are down 75 percent on the summer average sales over the last decade and are even 50 per cent down on last summer,†said Nick Hopkinson, director of PPR.

“If current sales trends continue most people will only be moving house once every 30 years. Behind the data, we are seeing a market divide between prime location sellers who are attracting offers due to lack of selling competition and prices continuing to fall for all other types of property,†he added.

This makes looking at monthly price trends almost meaningless

Sibley, try looking at the Nationwide MoM stats along with transaction stats ............ the so called recovery looks like an incredibly fragile illusion. Then look at the wider economic picture - sound fu8ndamentals for the property market? Nope, the fundamentals spell out continuing disaster for the property market. Have a nice day Sibley.

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:lol::lol::lol:

It looks like all of the trolls listed in my sig will have posted in this thread by the end of the day, it really seems to bother them :rolleyes:.

A re-post lest it gets buried by the trolls ;).

By Tony Bonsignore | 12:49:19 | 30 July 2009

Sure, average house prices have stabilised a bit over the past few weeks, but that is on the back of very little activity. For the most part, the market is deadlocked, potential buyers unwilling or unable to buy, and homeowners unwilling or unable to sell.

Millions of overstretched owners, bailed out by record interest rate cuts, are continuing to hold firm, praying for the moment when values start to inflate again. This, in turn, is restricting supply. When and if that pent-up supply is unleashed on the market (as it so nearly was in mid 2008) values can only fall sharply.

Unemployment is still rising, too, and the economy contracting, which can only further hit confidence. Plus we still have the little matter of paying off the record amounts of debt we racked up during the last bout of housing insanity.

All this media talk of green shoots is doing little to prepare us for the long hard slog that lays ahead, one suspects.

Against this background, Nationwide’s prediction can be seen for what it really is: a self-interested guess-in the-dark from an organisation that has absolutely no idea where house prices are going, but desperately wants to see an end to the current market malaise.

And that goes for the rest of them, too: Halifax, Rightmove, RICS, Hometrack…they are all as clueless as each other.

The only thing we can rely on is their determination to get as much publicity as they possibly can, and to talk up a market that was allowed to spiral way out of control and is now, quite naturally, crashing back to earth.

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Guest Barebear

If only one house sells in a month and its a particularly nice one, we would see massive HPI.

As the article says the figures are based on really low volumes. Thats all we need to know.

A few houses selling for good money does not recovery make.

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So Sibley, why is it that the collapse of transactions in the property market continues? See:

http://www.introducertoday.co.uk/News/Stor...e=news_features

UK housing market has 'virtually ground to halt'

Wednesday 29th July 2009

Despite the latest land registry figures showing the first positive housing market growth for over a year of 0.1 per cent, Property Portfolio Rescue said the UK market is still going nowhere.

“House sales volumes are down 75 percent on the summer average sales over the last decade and are even 50 per cent down on last summer,†said Nick Hopkinson, director of PPR.

“If current sales trends continue most people will only be moving house once every 30 years. Behind the data, we are seeing a market divide between prime location sellers who are attracting offers due to lack of selling competition and prices continuing to fall for all other types of property,†he added.

This makes looking at monthly price trends almost meaningless

Sibley, try looking at the Nationwide MoM stats along with transaction stats ............ the so called recovery looks like an incredibly fragile illusion. Then look at the wider economic picture - sound fu8ndamentals for the property market? Nope, the fundamentals spell out continuing disaster for the property market. Have a nice day Sibley.

to be fair transactions have been improving

mapprov_550x350_2000-2009_100.png

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/pro...y_transactions/

to a level that can sustain a stable market

kq_jun2009.png

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/hou...rice_predictor/

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:lol::lol::lol:

It looks like all of the trolls listed in my sig will have posted in this thread by the end of the day, it really seems to bother them :rolleyes:.

A re-post lest it gets buried by the trolls ;).

More great trolling, congrats.

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We don't have a trade deficit anymore, we have paid off all the Government debt, loads of new factories have opened, all the IT jobs outsourced to India have come home.

Oh... that's right, we have none of those things - all we have is a corrupt government trying to make us feel good again without fixing the structural problems.

Sorted.

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