Nationwide June Figures

[Giraffe Cat]

Its because of the tennis this month...

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/CMQPRQ205.pdf

The year on year increase is down to 4.1%.

[Giraffe Cat]

Can anyone make sense of the quarterly infomation on page 3? It says the average house price in Q2 2005 was £158,853. The monthly figures for Q2 are:

June £157,791

May £157,272

April £156,128

Blimey, look at N.Irelands annual increase on page 6, 24.8%

And is it my browser, or have the fonts on this site just changed?

Edited June 30, 2005 by Giraffe Cat

[Pudniw]

Hmmmm. It states that HPI in the North & Yorkshire is growing at approx 8% (I don't believe it!), but turnover is down over 40%.

[sign_of_the_times]

declan said "prices have slipped again by 0.2% but are STILL 4% higher than a year ago" (he emphasised the "still higher" bit)

he couldn't wait to move on to the next item.....

[Pudniw]

declan said "prices have slipped again by 0.2% but are STILL 4% higher than a year ago" (he emphasised the "still higher" bit)

he couldn't wait to move on to the next item.....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't imagine he mentioned that's down from 5.5% last month!

[spoon]

interesting that they talk of the psychological damage a rate cut might do to the housing market.

i agree. to anybody who thinks interest rates are heading back down to 3% - what sort of economy do you think we'll have at that time?

[Giraffe Cat]

July 2004 had an increase of more than 2%, so if July 2005 is about 0%, the year on year figure will be about 2%. That should panic the amateur BTL and the flippers.

[non-FTBer]

I wouldn't try and make any sense of those figures.

Absolute b0ll0ck5.

They reckon average cost of a house in the south west has gone up between Q1 and Q2 this year then they are living on another planet.

They must churn the 'real' data through so many meaningless calculations to arrive at what they do.... or maybe its more simple... maybe they just add 10% to any quarterly deflation to make it inflation.

[eurows]

So its tennis's fault this month then is it.

[Blind]

Stupid question - page 4

Why do the graphs only go up to Q4 2004? Are they still really saying HP growth is at 15%??

Those 2 graphs are really poor if you ask me with the labelling so vague its unbeleivable.

[Guest consa]

I would tend to agree, you cannot get any real good insight from this, apart from they talk a lot about affordability being a big factor (I thought IR's were very low!!), they also mention part of a cycle etc which on the face of things points to an admission that prices are headed south, I don't think they realise that low volumes of transactions distorts the figures dramatically.

LR Figures are probably the most reliable for completed transactions!!

[Guest Riser]

Looks like everything is on track for annual HPI going negative in September, possibly as soon as August .

Nationwide HPI - Crash on course

As usual the Nationwide National figures are distorted by the increases in Scotland and Northern Ireland which tend not to follow the national trend.

Scotland HPI - to Q1 2005

Northern Ireland HPI

The percentage of first time buyers fell yet again to 25% - less than half the historic average, and the number of transactions were again well down on last year.

My Laptop should be fixed by next week when I will update the graphs on the Nationwide thread.

Edited June 30, 2005 by Riser

[Blind]

I wouldn't try and make any sense of those figures.

Absolute b0ll0ck5.

They reckon average cost of a house in the south west has gone up between Q1 and Q2 this year then they are living on another planet.

They must churn the 'real' data through so many meaningless calculations to arrive at what they do.... or maybe its more simple... maybe they just add 10% to any quarterly deflation to make it inflation.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've just finished the whole report and I have to agree with the above.

So wish someone could cut throught the crap and state how many houses were sold in each area and for what price - leave out all seasonal adjustment etc...

Affordability table shows homes even more unaffordable than a year ago though - due to wages on their way down.

[737]

interesting that they talk of the psychological damage a rate cut might do to the housing market.

i agree. to anybody who thinks interest rates are heading back down to 3% - what sort of economy do you think we'll have at that time?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Perhaps the question should be 'What sort of economy will we have if rates don't fall towards 3%'?

The only things keeping the UK economy moving are consumer spending and government 'investment', the manufacturing sector declines year after year.

Increases in future consumer spending relies on decreasing interest rates and further growth in government spending relies on increasing taxation which relies on increased consumer spending, which relies on lower interest rates. The cycle, sadly, seems to be for rates to head South and, eventually, by some margin.

Edited June 30, 2005 by 737

[Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates]

June 04 annual house inflation 19% june 05 4.1 % A FALL OF 78% Y-O-Y and its LOWEST RATE FOR 20 YEARS

[gasket37]

i caught the nationlied's fionalla whatsherface on the radio 4

"today" programme at about 7.30 this morning and she said that

prices has gone up 0.8% IN THE LAST QUARTER.

therefore i knew immediately that something was up with this MONTH'S

figures then!

they went on to talk about the stand off between buyers + sellers

and she mentioned that PRICES WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN.

then there was the usual V.I. b0llocks about interest rates, "low" unemployment

blah blah blah

funny how they don't wheel out martin ellis for this stuff anymore,

isn't it?

[Boom'n'Bust]

I like the way daily mail have published the results of Nationwide's report. Look at the way the wording has been used:

House prices cool in June

Andrew Oxlade, This is Money

30 June 2005

HOUSE prices fell by 0.2% in June, according to the UK's largest building society. The rate of annual growth fell from 5.5% to 4.1%, the lowest level since July 1996, taking the average value to £157,791.

Nationwide warned that with demand for property stagnating, price 'adjustments' were inevitable.

'Estate agents continue to report stalemates between buyers and sellers on price and without any economic pressure on sellers to reduce prices at the moment, the stock to sales ratio looks set to rise,' said Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide.

'This cannot continue indefinitely and price expectations will adjust. There are some early signs of easing but questions remain over timing. When will prices adjust and how far will they have to move?.'

The society admits homes have become less affordable but adds that if interest rates fall in autumn only 'small price adjustments' will be necessary to keep the market steady.

Nationwide has predicted a 2% rise in house prices for 2005. Its study, which included a quarterly review, showed prices rose 1.2% between March and June, up from a rate of 0.8% in the two previous quarters. It put this down to an early Easter giving a kick-start to the house-buying season. The figures mean that house prices have already risen 2% so far this year.

Studies from both the Nationwide and lender Halifax have shown prices fluctuating up and down each month since autumn. The Nationwide survey, for instance, reported a 0.3% in the previous month.

However, data from property website Rightmove, research firm Hometrack and the National Association of Estate Agents all show that prices have been falling consistently since last summer.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...1&in_page_id=57

[jpjh]

You have to ask if the nationwide and halifax results are showing up the irresponsible lenders for what they are.

Think about it...halifax and nationwide are still saying the prices are increasing (but with Seasonal Adjustments shows falls) These two indexes are in direct opposition to all the other indexes which are showing outright falls.

Is this because Nat-Fax are only reporting on their own irresponsible lending to buyers who are blinkered?

I find it very odd that the various indexes are now really out of sync and am very interested to see the next set of land registry figures.

[OnlyMe]

jpjh,

Quite, their indices are nothing more than a reflection of their own loan book.

If they are getting out of sync with Land Reg/ Hometrack / Rightmove they are either shifting where they are lending out money, taking on extra risk or somehow atttracting the most creditworthy and high earning section of society.

IIRC someone said about Halifax giving someone they knew a 6X mortgage recently. Nuff said.

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

Relying on the VI's for factual information is foolish. Read between the lines. I am not interested in the minutiae. All the indices have a similar theme, inflation is falling. That is all I need to see to be confident about where prices are going.

[camem']

cooling house prices might suggest that

affordability will improve leading to higher turnover and hence give some boost to house prices.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

congratulations to Nationwide for discovering the central principle of a MARKET. Free magnolia paint all round.

Mind you, they're not quite there yet because they seem to use this argument to say it won't fall...

[Yonmon]

congratulations to Nationwide for discovering the central principle of a MARKET.  Free magnolia paint all round.

Mind you, they're not quite there yet because they seem to use this argument to say it won't fall...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hmmm- are they saying house prices will fall which will make them rise?

no but yeah but no but....

[Cubes]

Probably not quite the rate of return the last batch of BTLers were hoping for when they dived in last summer with annual HPI reportedly running at 20%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm quite happy with my BTL rate of return so far, having dived in last summer... But then again, I bought in Northern Ireland

[Van]

Prices are crumbling slowly but very surely. More instructions, fewer buyer.

There's no way prices are 4% higher than this time last year, except in certain pockets of the country. Nationwide's index is probably 2-3 months lagging behind the 'real' state of the market, while the lack of any regional breakdown or other leading techincal indicators really leave it lacking any real credibility.

I keep asking: What has happened to all the FTBs that were meant to jump in and save the market? Not quite working out like the bulls had predicted, is it.

[Cubes]

You've done well then - so far. I'm predicting 0% growth for NI over the next twelve months. Would you agree or disagree with this prediction?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Ianbe,

I predict somewhere between 0-10% over the next year and continued growth over the medium to long term. Here in Belfast, the mood is still very positive. There are massive regeneration plans in progress (Titanic Quarter, Victoria Square, Cathedral Quarter etc) and many investors from the South of Ireland (where prices are relatively higher) are now buying up property in the North.

Added to this, IF interest rates start to decrease this will increase affordability and continue to drive the prices upwards.

That's my assessment

Edited June 30, 2005 by Cubes