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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by camem'

  1. Given how many people mess up adding a news link, so that it doesn’t go anywhere, can we make it any easier ? I think by removing the autofill http so you can post a link as-is we’d get a lot more links that work (or by checking for a double http and removing it)
  2. this - towards the end of my tenancy it was very useful having a landlord who didn't use a scheme - his attempt at an illegal 1 months notice turned into 3 months while he realised he had to pay the deposit back in full first, which gave me time to find somewhere else to live. Which sounds pretty basic now I think about it, but was still a lot easier than if he'd been following the law
  3. do they get to anyone else ? "in a significant shift to the east, a rising percentage shift in the balance between two numbers we won't tell you, counted in units of percentage portions of other numbers we've lost, according to the method used by rics lore for reasons that become obvious if you knew how the variance of how many actual numbers we get, indicated a strong weakening in the softening of the strengthwardness of the key performance indicators of the housing market as measured against a 3 monthly cycle of the relative demand and supply according to estate agent's cats, compared with last year's price indicator indexes. This is a key measurement which no doubt foretells a great shift in a clockwise accelerated shift direction of other key percentage shifts over the coming months, which we will tell you about some unspecified amount of time after or before they happen"
  4. "the Labour leader said he wanted to do more to stop the estimated 4.5 million households renting privately from being "ripped off". He is pledging to cap rents during the course of the standard three-year tenancies so they cannot rise by more than the CPI measure of inflation, which is currently 0%" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32468997
  5. https://www.gov.uk/housing-benefit/what-youll-get "From April 2013, you may also be able to get extra help from your local council called a ‘discretionary housing payment’ if your Housing Benefit doesn’t cover your rent."
  6. Greenparty.org - green belt under threat once again
  7. no probs with that, but to fix housing you want to build on 11% of the land rather than 9%. this needs some greenfield. ukip can't be a fan of all those actual fields anyway if they want to lose the eu cap subsidies, so there are some spare...
  8. UKIP are the only party apart from the greens to state we should build *less* housing than we are now by not using any greenfield sites. Our county council just got a load of ukip members who, if they follow their manifesto, will start blocking the larger developments going through increasing housing costs for everyone in the county. They also support very localised decisions on planning (ie asking the people who have housing rather than the ones that would use new housing, which results in no new housing, a tragedy of the commons) Anyone want to defend ukip's policy or have a rosier view of it ?
  9. easiest way from the UK for up to £250 a time is pingit, with blockchain who have been with bitcoin since it started and are very good technically (no idea about customer service since it just works). Requires a smartphone and a UK bank account. If you don't want to hold them in the cloud transfer them to another wallet once you've bought them. Blockchain pingit instructions They will go up to £2000 per 7 days once you're set up. To go beyond that you'd have to get an mtgox account (the large exchange doing best at regulation), verify yourself by scanning some id and sending to them, and use a uk bank account that can do SEPA (europe) transfers (most of the high street ones) so you can transfer to mtgox's european account. The UK is dragging its heels here relative to US, Japan, France etc which is why it's harder - no-ones successfully got a regulated exchange set up in the UK yet, though a few must be trying. HMRC have said it's ok to make money buying and selling bitcoins as long as you pay the appropriate capital gains tax PS once you've got some and understand how easy it is to make payments and how little risk of ID fraud there is compared to having a standard bank account, you hope it gives the banking industry a kick in the right direction...
  10. 5 YEARS and this was the first thing interesting enough to post on. we'd better try harder. are you Jeff Randall ?
  11. the landlord wants to take more risk than the tenant (to start a business). He's not got very much capital and can't get a loan from the bank (cos the banks aren't very good at that these days) the tenant just wants to live in a house without paying any rent, and is happy to tie up his capital to do that while he builds up more cash Remember the tenant has more disposable money than the landlord, who has his money tied up in an asset
  12. It's been the predominant form of renting for 48m people in Korea since the 1960's, so it's got a track record. Assuming a return to long term interest rates, why not ?
  13. Here's a fresh perspective on lending, debt, banking, and creating growth Financing growth without banks (Princeton paper) The summary is: You rent a house from a landlord At the same time you lend him your house deposit He hangs up his btl keys and tries to create a useful business instead The rent of the house is the same as the interest on your deposit So you pay him no rent He pays you no interest The collateral on the loan is the house So if his business fails and he can't pay you back your capital, you get the house The contact is time limited, after x years he gives you your money back and gets his house back. You've lived rent free, the landlord got to start a business, and best of all in a banking crisis, loans, investment, and growth happened, all without the services of a bank. The boot's on the other foot in terms of trying to 'win' the investment of a tenant, while the landlord gets to do something useful and of course maybe get rich doing 'real' business. This seems to be more equitable than someone with more wodge than you buying the house you could almost afford, and then charging you rent for not being able to buy it Thoughts ? Could it ever work in the UK ?
  14. 3 weeks ago the new planning rules were published National planning policy framework is anyone else seeing an increase in applications to build houses since then that appear to have some chance of succeeding ? This weekend I happened to see both the folks and the in laws folks, from different ends of the country, and both were very excited about their communities being 'up in arms' to block recent planning applications. They live in villages slowly dying because younger families cannot move in, and both have highly organised petitions, mostly from retired/semi retired people but in volume, being sent to their local councillors in an effort to block any building at all. Various reasons given like traffic, schools etc. one mentioned that it would have an effect on house prices. In fact the planners can force the developers to build useful stuff like roads under section 106, so lots of the arguments don't stack up. However the fact they're all so riled gives me some comfort that there might actually be some house building one day soon. Pleasingly one reason quoted against building is that they've got the mix wrong, wanting to build pesky 3/4 bed family houses and bungalows instead of the 2 bed flats that the older generation says they would move into if they were built (well, not them specifically of course, but their peers, and, you know, young people...) A few questions: What incentive does a councillor have to approve planning under the localism rules, if all the locals are saying no ? Obviously there's no easy way to represent the views of those who would move in to the new places, so a vote-conscious councillor will surely say no ? Who really determines if the argument against is strong enough ? Is anyone else experiencing 'grass roots' campaigns against planning in villages ? Are they likely to succeed ? Can anyone think of a way for a council to represent the views of the people who would benefit if the houses are built (ie those who don't live there yet) ? Is it democratic to do this ? Does anyone have a handy graph of building over the last few decades ? Funny that there seems to be so much wilful obstruction when if i recall we've built relatively sod all since 2007 ?
  15. ok, this wasn't supposed to be about class or snobbery or what I or we think about footballers - so I've changed it to savant, hope that helps (so to speak, now whose catchphrase was that) Personally I think Eric's great, although in my opinion he's misjudged this one as I don't think it will achieve what he wants so to clarify, the idea of the vote is whether we actually think taking money out of the banks en masse (or encouraging people to) is a step forward or not, not about whether you like Eric
  16. What do people here actually think about this ? Vote here on the bank protest campaign : 1) Eric and anyone else who wants to risk our economic infrastucture by intentionally causing bank collapses and everything that goes with it is an idiot 2) This is the only way to show the banks who's in charge, heck, maybe it'll even bring house prices down, the revolution starts here Guardian - Eric's bank protest campaign In case it helps you choose, here is an enigmatic quote from Eric himself : "When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea" Eric Cantona 1995
  17. looks like a good place to stash cash : price increasing at about 2.4% a day at the moment, people starting to buy a few hundred dollars worth at once. bitcoinpricecrash anyone ?
  18. odd place for an embargoed report, right on their website an all that... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010/10/october-2010.pdf It's late, but shouldn't +3.1% MoM with +2.9% YoY that mean that last months report should have been close to or into negative YoY ?
  19. sure, you can set up an igindex account and trade on the June 2011 price now. Some people have already bought this morning. The spread is currently 151.0 / 153.8. So if you think the price will stay up you can put as much money as you like behind that(although you wouldn't be able to use it as a house deposit at the same time of course). Igindex take their cut though - you have to buy at 153.8, so you need to believe that the sell price (151) will rise back above that to break even. I almost 'sold' at 160 a few weeks ago, wish I had now of course
  20. For anyone thinking of buying about mid next year : this is IGIndex's futures price for a house in Jun 2011 (the scale's a bit odd, but basically it hovered around 160K for months, then hit the falls in this graph which covers the last week or so). The measure used is the halifax official SA figure. The scale is thousands of pounds (that's thousands of pounds you won't have to spend any more if you're a potential FTB) So the June 2011 price is already predicting 7% falls on the current actual price (162K) in nominal terms (so any inflation makes the real falls bigger) - and today it's been losing several hundred pounds an hour
  21. I suspect the gold for plating the pensions might have to come out of the figure too.
  22. "I am announcing today the Government's intention in principle to abolish the remaining eight Government Offices, subject to the satisfactory resolution of consequential issues through the Spending Review." 2000 staff £91m pay a year 2008-2009 £39m non-pay a year 2008-2009 Statement from Secretary of State for CLG
  23. bloo - scepticus is right on this one (there are ways to the trust up so you don't have to trust the comms network), you might have to let it go. More importantly, is it going to get more than 2000 users ? I imagine it has the same 'tipping points' as any other payment systems in terms of enough people using it for it to be useful for the next people. Quite a few people I know accept cash.
  24. I met a bin man in Cambridge a couple of weeks ago. He told me he was very excited because once he'd been there two years (which was coming up shortly) he would be on £2500 net take home per month which was a good jump up from the £1400 take home per month he currently got. That seemed quite a lot to me. I'm pretty sure he would have accepted less of a jump without handing in his notice.
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