Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related

[pootle]

This lady is right up there with HC in the property ramping stakes so for her to say THIS is really quite remarkable:

The other members of real-estate cognoscenti argue that there will be little improvement until 2010, with some regions such as Northern Ireland not emerging from the mire produced by sub-prime slime until 2019.

[sophia]

Taken from main forum: No forecasts for 2009 from Halifax or Nationwide

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7791391.stm

'The Nationwide, whose database goes back to 1952, started publishing its monthly survey only in 1991.

But it had been publishing quarterly surveys since 1977, with the first annual forecast coming in 1988.

"We have never experienced conditions like this before," explained a spokeswoman for the society.

However the society has shunned making an annual forecast before, in 1992 and 1993, in the depths of the last house price slump.'

Some interesting comments here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=98502

Edited December 19, 2008 by sophia

[mr slump]

Looks like things will be tougher for the BTL looking for finance

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle5403182.ece

and from the Republic thanks to Property pin and Fubar

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.as...8456-qqqx=1.asp

excellent, hadn't seen the post.i one

but I was just about to post that times link

when I read it I actually made a fist and said YES! out loud

the last thing we potential homeowners need is another bunch of vulture investors moving in

surely the banks see the glut of rental property and realise that its a mugs game now

to quote clive (Jones) dunn

'they don't like it up them Captain Mainwaring'

[mr slump]

some sloppy journalism from BelTel. Taking UK average drop and transposing it to NI

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...7638.html?r=RSS

very shoddy

and misleading, looks like a 15 minute piece of work, just nicking the info fom some uk news and getting a few soundbites from a local EA

theres an even shorter version on there too

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...s-14127746.html

Campbell Morris, from Morris Estate Agents Ltd in north Belfast, who is a member of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), said that the developments were a “reality check” for homeowners and estate agents.

“A lot of estate agents have gone out of business because they were conditioned to work in a market you didn’t have to be tenacious — the property sold itself.”

“The biggest impediment to an increase in transactions — which is what is required in Northern Ireland — is consistent pricing.

“There are still very erratic pricing for similar properties.

“It is first time buyers that need to underpin the stability of the market.

“That’s why we had such a fantastic spike upwards and a traumatic spike downwards because the increase in the market was very much investor driven.”

from the longer one>

Campbell Morris from Morris Estate Agents Ltd in north Belfast, a member of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), said “erratic pricing” is the biggest problem in selling property.

“The biggest impediment to an increase in transactions — which is what is required in Northern Ireland — is consistent pricing,” he said. “There are still very erratic pricing for similar properties.

a wee bit simplistic, no?

of course its a problem but it should be emphasised that theyre pretty much all too expensive and its erratic OVERPRICING

actually

have the halifax released a regional price index?

I can't find one, just the general UK average which is very misleading

it also states (roughly) that the average is about 160k and thats an earning (average male) ratio of 4.4

which I worked out to be an average earnings of £36000+

anyone have a source for the NI drop from peak??

[mr slump]

At least its on the front cover "House prices going through the floor"

true, but it might give the impression that you need 16% off peak to sell

which 250k - 16% = 208k

were-as 250k - 30% = 175k

don't worry I know I'm being a bit generalistic here

and I don't think its ramping , just lazy on the part of a local newspaper not to relate the local drop

which is of course more than the UK average

I'm interested in the effect of mis-information on the individual states of denial in sellers

Edited January 3, 2009 by mr slump

[paul65]

Front page news of today's Sunday Life:

Nolan sheds pounds ... 200,000 of them!

Radio star Stephen Nolan had his fingers burnt when he became “greedy” trying to make a fortune in Ulster’s booming property market.

The larger-than-life presenter has told how he was left “sickened” when he lost a whopping £200,000 as the market crashed last year.

He lost the cash after he tried to squeeze extra money out of a house he had already agreed to sell.

The link to the full story is here: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-l...m-14128595.html

This is one story for Financial Planner to keep under his belt for the next time he is on Nolan Live. That would be a cracker.

[mr slump]

Front page news of today's Sunday Life:

Nolan sheds pounds ... 200,000 of them!

The link to the full story is here: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-l...m-14128595.html

This is one story for Financial Planner to keep under his belt for the next time he is on Nolan Live. That would be a cracker.

slap it up him

doubt if he'll be doing much on property for a while

[Traktion]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5429555.ece

figures of drops at bottom of article. NI - 31.2% - I can't make out whether this is in total or still to come

She continues: “Although we are unlikely to see a return to 100 per cent lending, without higher LTV deals there will be a lack of first-time buyers, making it impossible for the housing market to get moving again once the bottom is reached.

If first time buyers can't get mortgage deals, the bottom will not yet have been reached! Duh!

Yet another talking head, spouting ill thought out rubbish!

Not sure whether the forecast is total or not, but for NI, I think it's about where we are already according to Haliwide figures, no?

[shipbuilder]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5429555.ece

figures of drops at bottom of article. NI - 31.2% - I can't make out whether this is in total or still to come

More 'get a bargain now or lose out' embarrassing rubbish from The Times. Calling something a bargain suggests that it is underpriced - so when the market is falling with no end in sight, by definition bargains do not exist.

Edited January 4, 2009 by shipbuilder

[YoungFTB]

Steven Nolan is a piece of shit!

In reality he lost nothing because the price is pure speculation.

Anyone remember about a year ago when the HPC was starting and he would not even touch the subject of property on his shows? Too busy offloading his property portfolio in 2008

Just like the scummy EAs who where up to their eyeballs in BTL, yep get those properties sold to some mug before you start to discuss the local house price crash.

Gotta hand it to him, he's a devious git. Offload property investments and then make up a "sob" story for publicity, another "Victim Of The Credit Crunch"

I seriously can't stand the guy!

[mr slump]

Steven Nolan is a piece of shit!

In reality he lost nothing because the price is pure speculation.

Anyone remember about a year ago when the HPC was starting and he would not even touch the subject of property on his shows? Too busy offloading his property portfolio in 2008

Just like the scummy EAs who where up to their eyeballs in BTL, yep get those properties sold to some mug before you start to discuss the local house price crash.

Gotta hand it to him, he's a devious git. Offload property investments and then make up a "sob" story for publicity, another "Victim Of The Credit Crunch"

I seriously can't stand the guy!

have to agree with you man

I just remembered that angry speil on the show fp was on berating him for suggesting that NI wasn't a nice place to live

this was when fp brought up the price comparison between the expensive bit of SE england + NI

in relation to average wages

it was an embarrassing outburst, obviously the frustration of his his greed was illconcealed

[Sogy]

Not exactly media... but here are excerpts from a leaflet from Pooler that has just landed in my mailbox:

"With demand increasing and sales improving in November and December we urgently require fresh starter homes to the market"

"There's light at the end of the tunnel

BE POSITIVE, WE ARE"

So it looks like the experts know things are looking up!

[Traktion]

Just thinking over this one again - 31.6% They know what the falls we be to decimal precision do they? How daft is that?

[FrustratedFTB]

Tenants allowed to buy home share

Social housing tenants will soon be able to buy a share in their home, the Social Development Minister has said.

Currently they can only buy in one lump sum, potentially unaffordable in the grip of the credit crunch.

Eligible tenants will be able to buy a 25% stake initially, followed by increments of 5%.

At present if tenants have lived in public housing for some time they can buy the whole property at a discount.

Under this scheme, if they buy half the house they will receive 70% of the discount available if they were purchasing the entire property.

Margaret Ritchie said the house sales scheme had "enabled over 100,000 sitting tenants to become owners."

"This change will help tenants who don`t have the means to enter into full home ownership, to enter into part ownership and eventually incrementally increase their share up to 100%. It is about improving the lot of people," she added.

http://www4.u.tv/news/LocalNews/index.asp?...l=1&local=1

Thoughts?

When there already is acknowledged shortage of social housing why sell more off? Yes it will generate income so the minister can spend it on 'projects' but why the discount, is it fair given that they already have what many people might see as safer tenancy already? given the current climate will anyone take the offer up?

[mr slump]

http://nicrunchtalk.ning.com/profiles/blog...s-before-normal

2 years before normal lending resumes?

A second big banker has emerged from purdah to speak out. The BBC’s Today programme on Radio 4 ( 0810 slot) has run a preview of an interview with John Varley, CEO of Barclay’s with Robert Peston for Monday’s Panorama programme on BBC 1 entitled:“The Year Britain’s Bubble Burst”. Barclay’s is the one British banking giant which preferred to accept stiffer capitalisation terms for a £7 billion loan from Qatar and Abu Dhabi than the Treasury’s bail-put conditions, in order to keep a greater measure of independence. It may be assumed therefore that Varley feels under less pressure to say what he thinks the government and the public wants to hear.than Sir Victor Blank of Lloyds/TSB. Varley tells Peston that it could take two years for lending to stop shrinking.

Extracts

"I think that we will see the process of reduced borrowing play out over at least the course of the next twelve months maybe, maybe twenty four months. I think it's important to say though that the industry is open for business... "As soon as asset prices stabilise, then we will see the financial economy recover. And when will that occur? That will occur some time over the course of the next 18 months."

When he talks about asset prices, he means the price of property, shares and so on.

houses stabilise in 18months?

I think this pretty much backs up everyone on here vs the EAs 6 months to the floor then voooom cr@p

they don't expect to lend till prices go flat, and they don't expect that for at least a year

so the banks have an interest in getting those prices down quickly

the EAs should be making this clear to vendors instead of bullsh!tting buyers about missing boats

also ... if thats the case , so whats the point in interest rate cuts???

surely it would be better for the gov to stay out of all this and concentrate on business lending as a separate thing?

Edited January 6, 2009 by mr slump

[mr slump]

Jamie delargy came out quite firmly against it - saying it was the last thing that people on low salaries needed to buy a share in a house which was depreciating.

I personally disagree with the whole idea - the most desirable houses get bought leaving even poorer stock of social housing for everyone else. If you have social needs that qualify for social housing how can you afford to buy a share? It just doesn't add up. Its going to make more problems further down the line.

people buy these to sell on later

its thier way out really and how we end up at 180k for a council box iin a slum

[JoeDavola]

Rates in some NI areas to go up 10%:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7814696.stm

[mr slump]

EAs not fazed by tumbling prices

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...p-14131094.html

And the new estate agent says he isn’t fazed by the current housing market slump, claiming local house prices have bottomed out: “In east Belfast prices have gone as low as they can go,” said Karl Bennett.

what a d!ck

[Belfast Boy]

Remember: what they are saying in the press and what they are saying in private are two completely different things.

Estate agents know what is happening. They know people cannot arrange the good mortgage deals without very large deposits. They know everyone is offering well below asking price. The market will correct to an affordable level no matter what lies they tell us.

I'm alot more chilled about this now that the house price crash is actually happening as people on this website have said it would. Many people on this website are now saying not to buy a house before the end of 2010. Only another 18 months to wait Relax...

[shipbuilder]

Rates in some NI areas to go up 10%:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7814696.stm

What a joke - perhaps the councils have missed the fact that we are in a recession? Make some bloody cutbacks and put your hand back in your pocket.

[shipbuilder]

EAs not fazed by tumbling prices

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...p-14131094.html

EAs not fazed by the tumbling prices that just cost them their previous businesses.

[JoeDavola]

What a joke - perhaps the councils have missed the fact that we are in a recession? Make some bloody cutbacks and put your hand back in your pocket.

My Dad works for the council. Earns about £20K a year.

If he were to take voluntary redunancy (he's 55), he would get a lump sum of £52,000 and a pension of half his current wage every year for the rest of his life.

How many private companies could afford to do that? Now do you see why the rates are having to go up?

Edited January 7, 2009 by JoeDavola

[ratatat]

Rates in some NI areas to go up 10%:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7814696.stm

Words fail me, unreal..

[VedantaTrader]

Words fail me, unreal..

It is annoying, but guys this sort of thing over the coming years is going to become common, place. Stealth taxes, outright taxes are going to go up. We are spending more, yet tax revenues are falling...For anyone young and with no ties, you want to be trying to figure out how to get an income that comes from external sources...ie, outside the UK.

Internet work...while staying out the country. It is hard to see anything dynamic happening here, and the cost of living and lifestyle are going to change. Have a bank account in another country...

[YoungFTB]

It is annoying, but guys this sort of thing over the coming years is going to become common, place. Stealth taxes, outright taxes are going to go up. We are spending more, yet tax revenues are falling...For anyone young and with no ties, you want to be trying to figure out how to get an income that comes from external sources...ie, outside the UK.

Internet work...while staying out the country. It is hard to see anything dynamic happening here, and the cost of living and lifestyle are going to change. Have a bank account in another country...

Correct me if I'm wrong VT, I think you need to be working outside of the UK for at least 9 months of the year to qualify as an Expatriate and this allows you to avoid paying tax to the UK because of your Expat status.

Also you gotta watch out for those Double tax treaties that a lot of countries have

As I understand it countries have different rules when it comes to taxing internet incomes, I've only checked a few but I understand Thailand, Panama & Costa Rica don't tax offshore income (i.e. internet income)

I work online so I've researched this and thought about doing this, I'll be considering it more seriously over the next few years as I completely agree with your post. Higher taxes, more stealth taxes and a lower standard of living.

I'd also like to do some research into our dual citizenship, considering that we are allowed to claim Irish and British citizenship would it be possible to renounce the British citizenship (and forfeit paying taxes to the UK) so you become an Irish citizen BUT because you live in Northern Ireland (different country) could claim Expat status.

If anyone knows more about this I'd love more info, I doubt my suggestion above is possible otherwise we'd be seeing a lot of NI/Irish companies doing so.