If Anyone's Interested

[The Masked Tulip]

Steep sell-off in first half hour of DOW yesterday then the Fed, I mean the bulls, came out. These are the signs to watch out for.

[R K]

Right on cue. Did you ask the question as to whether stockcharts reads this thread rk? Strange though that seems.

http://blogs.stockch...on-usb-crb.html

EDIT: ref...post number 7011

http://www.housepric...dpost&p=2889177

I did. Arthur's ace and we do use stockcharts rather alot. Perhaps they've noticed! Unless he reads McCurdy? Or perhaps, like us, he can see these things for himself. Interestingly he's gone for the CRB low rather than the bond high as the starting point (i.e. Ben's Jackson hole speech and the end of the August 'Pandora' equity correction).

(If you're reading Arthur - we're big fans, keep up the good work and please add UK instruments to your data feeds!).

[azogar]

Mubarak resigns. Will the markets like this or suddenly decide it doesn't?

Not i think, uncertainty and all that jazz

[R K]

Albert on likely bond market over-reaction to any tick up in US core CPI

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/10/485176/prepare-for-a-major-market-over-reaction/

[R K]

Re inflation, I thought this was interesting. Indeed as an early warning system too!

http://www.bondvigil...7436940000.html

Cheers, saw that on the gilts thread.

It's not a little bizarre that with tech as advanced as it is and millisecond latency now part and parcel of exchange trading that govt. stats appear to be compiled using a quill pen and a Dickensian ledger.

If supermarket CEOs can have 'dashboards' on their laptops telling them minute by minute sales by store and line one wonders why official stats are still in the dark ages by comparison. Perhaps they need to put them through some sort of special 'filter'

[R K]

The first girl in this vid is awesome. That is all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GR8jOJZERhs

[The Masked Tulip]

They all be fit.

[R K]

They all be fit.

I won't argue with that TMT

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/jim-chanos-happy-with-short-position-in-china/

Powering the real estate related sector is a growing credit bubble both within the traditional banking system and the shadow banking system. Chanos estimates that they grew 25% and 10% respectively (relative to GDP). That means we are seeing a 35% total credit expansion to drive a 9% GDP growth. Or put another way, $3.5 of credit expansion to deliver a $1 of GDP growth – clearly unsustainable.

The eventual implosion of the Chinese market will spill over into all other markets. Chanos actually believes that the US market will be relatively insulated because of its dependence on internal consumption. But you can bet that real estate markets like Vancouver and Australia that have benefited indirectly from the real estate bubble in China will feel the after shocks.

And of course, the first point of impact will be raw materials and commodity markets and commodity producers.

[R K]

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/energy-sector-reaching-exhaustion-point/

Helping all of this is the fact that crude oil is getting a lot of bullish notice these days. We have the nice round target of $200 suggested by Jim Rogers. And we just had the revelation from WikiLeaks that Saudi Arabia’s reserve numbers are about as inflated as Kanye West’s ego – according to Sadad al-Husseini, the geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil conglomerate, Aramco. The inflation of reserves by Saudi Arabia is something that we’ve been hearing about for several years now from different sources so it isn’t earth shattering news. But it is important to remember that major tops are formed with the help of positive news and major lows are carved out of misery and desolation.

[R K]

Some good charts covering S&P, bonds, dollar and oil on 'Short side of long' today...... he's even used some of the same charts that I recently posted.

http://theshortsideo...g.blogspot.com/

RK/HAM - On his long bond overview he's using 'relative distance away from 200 MA'....... now PPO uses EMA's, so is this simply a typo error or is there a PPO equivalent for MA's?. It would be useful to know since I do use MA's instead of EMA's for gold.

PPO does use ema not sma yep.

It's the labelling on his charts from what I can tell. For instance, the SPX daily chart is def. showing & above 200ema (put both 200ema and 200sma on a daily SPX chart and check manually). Just checked the USB and that is usingthe PPO using EMA too. BUT his 200ma line on the main body of the chart is the sma. It does get a tad confusing............

MACD uses ema as well else you could perhaps set it to 1,200,1 also (??).

I've not found a way around this for simple ma but if you come across one I'd love to know too.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Red Karma

[50sQuiff]

For what it's worth (probably not a whole lot) there's been an important trendline break on my proprietary sentiment indicator and the SPX should head lower this week. I only have a weekly resolution at the moment - still working on the daily - so I can't be more accurate. Similar breaks have been very good predictors of market declines over the past 4 years of back-testing.

Fractally, there is still scope for a mid-2007 style sell-off followed by a double-top if my indicator makes a partial retrace and settles in a range-bound pattern. This is precisely what happened in 2007, when the indicator broke down from its range in October and header sharply lower.

This also seems to fit with Catflap's dollar down/stocks down scenario.

Edited February 14, 2011 by 50sQuiff

[R K]

Gavyn - A week in glow ball macro - emerging risks

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/02/13/a-week-in-global-macro-emerging-risks/

Given the greater inflation risks in the emerging world, and the prospects of greater monetary tightening, is this valuation premium really justified? I would need some convincing

2. The Chinese economy is slowing down as monetary policy is tightened. I have argued repeatedly in earlier blogs that China is the only one of the major economies which is slowing down at present. And monetary policy is being tightened further. Last week, 12 month interest rates on bank deposits were increased by another 0.25 per cent to take them up to 3.00 per cent. Yet that remains about 12 per cent below the current rate of growth in nominal GDP, which is not exactly a compelling incentive to save.

As a result, warnings from western investors about the developing “bubble” in residential and commercial property prices are becoming louder. I doubt whether the Chinese property bubble will burst with real interest rates as low as they are right now, but a progressively slowing Chinese economy is certainly not good for Asian stockmarkets. They fell by over 4 per cent last week, the worst performance in many months.

It can inflate some more?

Other countries with similar levels of risk are Yemen, Libya, Syria and Iraq, all of which have seen signs of trouble already. But none of them (not even Iraq) is a really significant producer of oil. Encouragingly, many of the key oil producing states, like the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, are right at the bottom of the risk table, with index readings between 20 and 30. Saudi Arabia is around the middle of the league, with a worryingly high risk index of slightly over 50. More than ever, that is the country for global investors to watch.

It is true that government bond yields have been rising in the UK, but no more than we have seen in other developed economies. If the markets really were worried that the high rate of UK inflation may become permanent, the gilt market would surely be in much worse shape.

Nice chart of the flat spread of UK 10yr yields over the 'global average'. Not sure how that's constructed though. If anything it appears the spread has been tightening a little in the last few months.

[R K]

Pettis on Chinese stocks and the likely rise in more radical politics within the piggies (Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal et al).

http://mpettis.com/2011/02/chinese-stock-markets-and-european-politics/

Missed the previous article which is also a cracker on Dollar/Renminbi and Brazil/China tensions.

http://mpettis.com/2011/02/currency-manipulation/

[R K]

Emerging markets showing weakness - Bovespa

http://blogs.stockch...g-weakness.html

In fact, the recent daily shows it trading below the November swing low and rapidly homing in on the August 26th 'Bernanke' Jackson Hole speech swing low. This cycle peaked 12th Jan.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p86673647122

Hit and bounced off the August low. Let's see if it can regain the 200ma or re-tests that August low support.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BVSP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82679944740

[The Masked Tulip]

Wasn't March 2009 the low?

Two years to the day would be interesting - might be another Black Wednesday.

Edit:

March 6 I meant to say.

Edited February 15, 2011 by The Masked Tulip

[R K]

Oil will reach a production plateau of around 95m bpd in 2015 and bump along with rising price until 2020

We are producing about 87 million to 88 million barrels a day, and I would put global capacity at another five million barrels on top of that. So our capacity is about 92 million to 93 million barrels a day, and I see our capacity as reaching perhaps as much as 95 million barrels a day at the peak in about four or five years, probably around 2015. But I think production will go very modestly above that point, if at all, and, in effect, we will reach a plateau. It will be a little bumpy in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. But by 2020, the first signs will become very evident that we can't go any higher than that in production. So we will begin to settle very slowly and gradually in a world in which we need more oil each year, but we can't get more.

By 2020, I'm looking for about $300 a barrel, which is closer to $225 a barrel in today's dollars. So it reaches a production plateau around 2015 or 2016 and stays flattish on a bumpy plateau until about 2020, at which point output starts to recede slowly.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204098404576130370708044708.html?mod=googlenews_barrons#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

[R K]

Thanks but sorry CF - meant with spx as well. i.e. to overlay nyad and nyhl (separately) onto the chart you originally posted.

What did your last chart slave die of?

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Like this - I've used simple MA's throughout and this time taken a 20-day MA of NYHL. SPX looks even more extreme above it's 200-day MA than above it's 200-day EMA.

I wanted to use a girly shade of pink though but Stockcharts didn't have that

Anyway, it's saved so can be easily tweaked and re-posted at another point in the future.

my analysis says that BPSPX could shoot up through resistance at 88 and into the chart above overtaking the S&P and potentially reaching as high as 1500

[Number79]

Evening gents, off thread as usual but I know that this is the best place for answers.

After 2 years I finally took a phone upgrade and now have one of the new fangled does everything droid phones. I wanted to ask which are the best market/trade/commod apps that you use? and the best charts app?

Thanks.

[R K]

funny you should say that. I've go a bearish rising wedge sticking out the top of my monitor.

Oo er mrs. I've warned you not to visit that site.

I've only just learned how to add smileys to texts so I'll pass I'm afraid Richy.

[The Masked Tulip]

Evening gents, off thread as usual but I know that this is the best place for answers.

After 2 years I finally took a phone upgrade and now have one of the new fangled does everything droid phones. I wanted to ask which are the best market/trade/commod apps that you use? and the best charts app?

Thanks.

[The Masked Tulip]

Surrendered to the Fed. Invested all my cash this morning. Look out for a Black Monday.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Surrendered to the Fed. Invested all my cash this morning. Look out for a Black Monday.

Brave, I can’t get off the fence myself. Good luck .

[The Masked Tulip]

I went for Apple, Netflix and FFIV. I can only seeing each being a 1,000 bucks per share by the end of the year.

Actually, no, I am only pulling your legs. As I have stated before, I think 2011 will see a large pull-back in the markets.

I don't know when it will happen because of all the QE and as tempting as it is, as well as perhaps wise, to ride the QE bull now, and not fight the Fed, I know that the correction could be in December or this week... or anytime in between.

I ain't getting on this bull. None of the shares that I follow have any decent earnings yet their share prices are in the stratosphere.

[The Masked Tulip]

Have to say that the entire Middle East going up in flames should have dented the markets this week. Prior to QE the markets would have tanked.

The aliens in that 'Battle LA' film could invade today and the markets would still open up on Monday.