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Particularly SPY etf, if it falls on over 420m volume then the ABC down is likely to have started and this could take us well below the Nov 20th numbers.

Currently heading for 804 S&P. If it breaks 810 and close below. Then sell.

Dow in agreement.

NASD not agreeing.

Gold - if it goes above 930 and closes above 920 on Friday, next stop 1000 and then just add zeros.

Probably this will be decided Monday.

I'm not getting into any discussion about this however much you bully, insult, lie about me.

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Just a comment on your chart analysis. The gold stocks/gold oversold ratio could equally be resolved with a gold sell off. I realise that's not your position but it is nevertheless the case, particula

I see resistance at 50 and 55 and support at 38/40 Right now? Stuck in the middle with you. Edit: Roughly - before someone splits hairs.

Perhaps something in the way it is calculated. I've tried to figure it out before but couldn't get my head around it, so just look at the pictures instead. The way I see it right now is that the shor

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Just a comment on your chart analysis. The gold stocks/gold oversold ratio could equally be resolved with a gold sell off. I realise that's not your position but it is nevertheless the case, particularly if stocks overall fail at these support levels. I'm watching the HUI and it is still struggling with this 302 resistance area. 3rd or 4th (depending on how you read it) attempt. If it holds above that and it turns into support then I think your call is probably correct. I have to admit I'm less certain, for now at least.

Overall though I think everyone recognises we're at some major suppor/resistance levels again in just about everything.

Edit P.S. Thanks for posting FP. Always interested. Good to see your work up on market oracle as well. I always enjoy Nadeem's analysis.

Edited by Red Kharma
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Particularly SPY etf, if it falls on over 420m volume then the ABC down is likely to have started and this could take us well below the Nov 20th numbers.

Currently heading for 804 S&P. If it breaks 810 and close below. Then sell.

Dow in agreement.

NASD not agreeing.

Gold - if it goes above 930 and closes above 920 on Friday, next stop 1000 and then just add zeros.

Probably this will be decided Monday.

I'm not getting into any discussion about this however much you bully, insult, lie about me.

SP Volume currently £123m and at 824.

Gold fussing around at 915ish.

Not looking that good perhaps.

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... actually while we're doing technicals, anyone got a view on the VIX chart?

I see resistance at 50 and 55 and support at 38/40

Right now? Stuck in the middle with you.

Edit: Roughly - before someone splits hairs.

Edited by Red Kharma
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The thing that bothers me about VIX is the 5Y chart.

Specifically, the '98 Russian collapse, and the '02 Worldcom Ch.11 filing.

The question I keep coming back to is - if we're out of the woods, why has VIX bounced at levels higher than it was in Sep '08?

Edited by ParticleMan
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The thing that bothers me about VIX is the 5Y chart.

Specifically, the '98 Russian collapse, and the '02 Worldcom Ch.11 filing.

The question I keep coming back to is - if we're out of the woods, why has VIX bounced at levels higher than it was in Sep '08?

Perhaps something in the way it is calculated. I've tried to figure it out before but couldn't get my head around it, so just look at the pictures instead.

The way I see it right now is that the short-term resistance at this 50-55 area is going to co-incide pretty much with the 804/5 support level on SPX. If this holds, and we get a strong rally from there then VIX is quickly going to drop below 40 and be back towards more normal levels. If it fails, then there's some considerable headroom before we get back up to the eye-watering levels of the Autumn. Perhaps a 3rd visit up there wouldn't be such a bad thing before we can get a decent bear rally going.

Just my 2p.

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So, SPX support held, so far. Still no "buy" signal so it continues to mark time...............

PM, take a look at the VIX chart with a 10dma on it. Even in October when things got pretty wild it gave pretty good support or resistance to the VIX. The fall back to that "false" sell around Oct 20th was in fact the 20dma. I've not shown it because it detracts from the clarity of the 10, but have a look if you're interested. When the VIX value changes direction and cuts the 10 it then also becomes either support or resistance.

Worth keeping an eye on perhaps?............

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...id=p75823378475

Edited by Red Kharma
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I think the fundamentals are changing a little to the better day for day. It's not big things but, enough for the markets.

The baltic dry index on of the best economic indicators have almost doubled since the bottom in December, and dry cargo shippers are again making money, the ISM index was up today, the house sales are picking up speed, house prices in norway posted their biggest increase in a decade in norway this january, up around 7 % this month, the yield curve is extremely steep.

It appears the tide of liquidity are going to come back. The Japanese just need to push down the yen, and the dollar have to come down a little and the game is back on.

This one http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WIMFNS?cid=28

Is very much similar now to the where the last recession ended.

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So do we read the Baltic Dry rising as an increase in demand/credit or could it also be due to a tightening of capacity after the collapse last year? Presumably some of these ships were mothballed or shipping lines went bust?

It seems to be quite a sudden turnaround although I guess it is more of a leading index. But what on earth are they shipping so much of?

Edited by Red Kharma
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So do we read the Baltic Dry rising as an increase in demand/credit or could it also be due to a tightening of capacity after the collapse last year? Presumably some of these ships were mothballed or shipping lines went bust?

It seems to be quite a sudden turnaround although I guess it is more of a leading index. But what on earth are they shipping so much of?

The baltic dry index increase when yields on us 10 year treasuries increase. It's the normalisation of credit markets that means it's possible to get a letter of credit to ship goods.

The other thing is that China is building up a huge momentum. You can read about China collapsing in the newspapers, but it's just plain nonsense. China is just shifting to a lower gear with lower growth. Low growth is especially good for stocks.

Most pundits think it's a disaster if China does not grow at 10 % each year, but the truth is that lower growth, especially around 3-5 % is great for stocks. 10 % growth is not good for stocks. Every great bull market in stocks in the history of stocks have happened when growth have been in this area of low growth. Japan was pushing ahead at high growth rates until 1980, then they went down to 4 %, and the index went to the moon, it's this path that China is on.

nikkei.gif

BDI_tenyear.gif

Edited by carseller
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Baltic dry has a ticker symbol - $BDI

I don't know if you can trade it - anyone know? Might be worth a long (after a pullback) then given the potential upside.

Edit: An index symbol

Edited by Red Kharma
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^^I somewhat suspect by your analysis of Asian economies that you have never actually been here. As a result you will have little understanding of why high percentage growth figures YoY are essential.

The lack of meaningful growth both here in Thailand and in the rest of Asia is shaping up to have disasterous consequences indeed.

Reason for edit: Comment aimed at Carseller, rather than Red Kharma, however the latter deserves some form of comment due to supporting a shameful football team...

Edited by bkkandrew
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^^I somewhat suspect by your analysis of Asian economies that you have never actually been here. As a result you will have little understanding of why high percentage growth figures YoY are essential.

The lack of meaningful growth both here in Thailand and in the rest of Asia is shaping up to have disasterous consequences indeed.

Reason for edit: Comment aimed at Carseller, rather than Red Kharma, however the latter deserves some form of comment due to supporting a shameful football team...

My local team. What's a man to do? ;)

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^^I somewhat suspect by your analysis of Asian economies that you have never actually been here. As a result you will have little understanding of why high percentage growth figures YoY are essential.

The lack of meaningful growth both here in Thailand and in the rest of Asia is shaping up to have disasterous consequences indeed.

Reason for edit: Comment aimed at Carseller, rather than Red Kharma, however the latter deserves some form of comment due to supporting a shameful football team...

It's really the growth after inflation that's important. China will not stop growing if inflation head down, but the numbers might look worse. The stock market loves lower inflation and bigger profit margins. However I don't think that's the cycle we are entering. It's likely just more of the same.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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