Georgia O'Keeffe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyway - back to fondue...have we got a 'Double Top' and breakdown? not yet i dont think, I think theres a top coming in Feb in some indices, definately FTSE and Nikkei, then the 8 to 10% sharp decline, then a final rally through to Mid April with the US indices going back, maybe a couple of percent above Feb Highs and the FTSE and Nikkei will just Fib retrace correct the falls These differentials will be offset by dollar weakness, i might draw some new pictures at the weekend Heres one i prepared earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maxed out Mama has been number crunching on China: http://maxedoutmama.blogspot.com/2011/01/china-goes-thunk.html Mind you, she doesn't take into account the unreliability of China stats - as pointed out in the comments to this Pettis article: http://mpettis.com/2010/12/chinese-growth-in-2011/ China to cause much grief later this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pettis again on chinese npl's and how they get paid for... http://mpettis.com/2011/01/the-real-cost-of-chinese-npls/ Excellent article. Reading between the lines, you could trace the entirety of their mercantilist strategy back to an attempt to cover up bad loans and the whole corrupt edifice. The interesting thing is that the Western strategy for dealing with our current crisis appears much the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Further to the above: The interbank lending rates (Shibor) in China have gone ballistic in the last three days, with the 1 week Shanghai Interbank rate soaring from 2.6% on Monday to 7.3% today. The worrying move has been put down to a combination of Chinese New Year (there is traditionally a bit of a movement around Chinese New Year but not this much) and the most recent increase in Chinese bank Reserve Requirement Ratio (the fourth in three months) catching banks by surprise. Rumours of a rate hike didn't help either. Following the increase in the Reserve Requirement Ratio, Chinese banks slowed or completely stopped interbank lending, which left some banks desperate for cash to pay the reserves. Domestic news reported that two banks failed to raise enough cash to pay the new reserve requirement ratio so the People's Bank of China made an unusual reverse repo to these banks (ie took collateral from the banks to make a cash loan). It looks like the spike is being driven by technical factors and should return to more normal levels post Chinese New Year in the second week of February, but unusual bank liquidity events are definitely worth keeping an eye on. http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk/blog/2011/01/21/1295614920000.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 (edited) Pettis again on chinese npl's and how they get paid for... http://mpettis.com/2...f-chinese-npls/ Cheers. This is why the People's Bank of China is so worried about another surge in non-performing loans. The idea that China can simply grow its way effortlessly out of its loan problem is widespread but wrong. If the household sector is forced once again to clean up a banking mess, this will make China even more reliant for growth on the trade surplus and on investment. Remember that there is no such thing as a painless banking crisis and anyone who suggests otherwise should not be taken very seriously. There is always a significant cost, and the cost is almost always borne one way or the other by the household sector. In China, with its already too-low household consumption, it will be very risky to force households to clean up yet another surge in non-performing loans. It would only make it more difficult than ever for China to achieve the rebalancing its economy so urgently needs. He appears to be suggesting this will require even more 'mercantilism' via increasing the trade surplus further. By extension that would mean pressure again revaluing the peg, more surplus recycling into the West (govt bond buying-hence why they're so keen to bail out Eurozone govvies? and effectively pressure to grow Western deficits even more i.e. the opposite of austerity) and thus downward pressure (again) on our rates (helps us sort out our non-performing lending). So if not via this mechanism (very risky as said) then how? Edited January 21, 2011 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 (edited) http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b00xln7l Thin Lizzy 9.00pm BBC 4 Edited January 21, 2011 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50sQuiff Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 (edited) Reading the various blogs and news sites the bulls seem to think a 1 to 3 percent correction is coming, the bears think a 10 to 15 percent. Reading the various blogs yesterday and again just now, I can't find any bears who are seriously preparing to go short. They're absolutely terrified and waiting for another slightly higher high, something from Bernanke, anything. I remember distinctly the psychology of bullish and bearish analysts on the blogs and podcasts in April 2010. We're there again, I'm almost convinced of it. There's a gallows humour about the futility of selling short this time, which is even more interesting. That Dow non-confirmation was awesome to watch today and we've also got classic Dow Theory action have we not, with the transports taking a nosedive? I added more to my position at the open today at 1287 and change. My aim is to match my position size with my level of conviction, so now I'm up to 40% Edited January 21, 2011 by 50sQuiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Reading the various blogs yesterday and again just now, I can't find any bears who are seriously preparing to go short. They're absolutely terrified and waiting for another slightly higher high, something from Bernanke, anything. I remember distinctly the psychology of bullish and bearish analysts on the blogs and podcasts in April 2010. We're there again, I'm almost convinced of it. There's a gallows humour about the futility of selling short this time, which is even more interesting. That Dow non-confirmation was awesome to watch today and we've also got classic Dow Theory action have we not, with the transports taking a nosedive? I added more to my position at the open today at 1287 and change. My aim is to match my position size with my level of conviction, so now I'm up to 40% Could be or this could still be the last buying dip into the interim top in a week or two. The latter still looks more likely to me, but I'm waiting to go long into this coming low rather than shorting into the top so not overly fussed if we go higher high or lower high next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BBC4 - Sister Rosetta Tharp - First Grandmother of Rock http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/xf8k7/ (EDIT: Do you think someone reads this thread - this is not the first time this has happened is it?) with the immortal Manchester anthem... Saw that one - really good too. Perhaps we're the main (only?) audience for BBC 4 (p.s. ITV recorded a live Barclay James Harvest session a few weeks ago so it's not just the Beeb who follow our thread ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good stuff...well worth a read! http://theshortsideo...of-january.html The retail investors are finally joining the party and just like always - too late! Sourced report:Stock funds had net inflows of $6.5 billion, which was up from outflows of more than $1.8 billion a week earlier. In the latest week, domestic-focused stock funds had inflow of nearly $3.8 billion, while international funds attracted inflow of $2.8 billion. This was the highest level of inflows since May 2009.Taxable bond funds as a group had its third straight week of inflows ($1.4 billion). But municipal bonds continued to bleed assets. In the latest week, nearly $2.4 billion more went out of muni funds than came in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 (edited) The retail investors are finally joining the party woohoo fill yer booties Edited January 22, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good summary on the bankster commission by Pesto http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2011/01/banking_commission_basel_not_e.html Fourth, the more extreme versions of so-called narrow banking, in which banks that look after our deposits would be banned from lending our cash to businesses or individuals, would impose excessive costs on the economy. So, no tin box full of cash with your name on it . Fifth, the tax system, which makes it cheaper for all companies to fund themselves with debt rather than loss-absorbing equity - because of the deductibility of interest - is at the heart of the problem, because it provides a powerful incentive to banks to minimize their holdings of equity. For many pirate equity 'entrepreneurs' this is their business model. I have to say, direct hostilities between Osborne and Balls - as and when they start for real - should be quite a spectator sport Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2011/01/traders-are-all-in.html Complacency in the market was setting records this past week. The technicals? They look great. But can the market keep moving higher short -term when options traders are betting on it en masse? Well, maybe, but if you enter stocks on the long side at this level, please understand the risk bar has been raised significantly. Don't misunderstand my message. I'm intermediate-term to long-term bullish and have been that way since shortly after the bottom formed in March 2009. There have been short-term periods, however, when it's made sense to take a more conservative approach to trading. ANY time complacency grows, I get nervous. Why? Because market makers are VERY good about making money and they do it at the expense of you and me. As more and more folks trade call options on a relative basis, the odds grow that a near-term top is fast approaching.Tons of net call option premium evaporated the last three trading days. The NASDAQ lost 3% of its value from Wednesday's open to Friday's close and that shouldn't surprise anyone who follows max pain, which I define as the point at which in-the-money call premium equals, or offsets, in-the-money put premium. It's generally in the market makers' best interests for prices to gravitate towards max pain into option expiration Friday. So between the complacency and max pain, the bulls faced a huge short-term hurdle as January options expired Friday. Unfortunately for the bulls, the market makers won again . In my view, it's another form of TARP for the financials. The good news for the Goldman Sachs of the world is that this TARP money doesn't have to be repaid. Wonderful! (sarcasm intended) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AdamHamilton http://zealllc.com/2011/spxcorr.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Everyone loves a bear. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vs35jrT7wRvM.asf&vCat=/av&RND=083176389&A= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Invaluable tool for HPC traders: Secured from ZeroHedge / Scribd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1 to 5 seconds: :Di'm having to copy & paste in spaces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 (edited) http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1BwCjXciU as we've been saying. main forum? i dare you, i double dare you Edited January 24, 2011 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nadeem's latest update The above analysis is concluding towards probability favouring continuation of the trend higher to the Dow 12k target by early Feb, when the market can be expected to consolidate the advance of the past 6 months and enter into a significant correction that at this point suggests a 10% decline, so tighten the stops and take the ongoing rally to bank profits which is the number one AIM of trading / investing! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25805.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nadeem's latest update http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25805.html So he thinks the markets are on the up, is dismissive of bears and waves but thinks that early Feb will see a 10% correction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com/Good read on sentiment indicators, here is the latest summary: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number79 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So he thinks the markets are on the up, is dismissive of bears and waves but thinks that early Feb will see a 10% correction. dont worry about nadeem, I have the next big thing for you here TMT http://www.buycaliforniabonds.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) dont worry about nadeem, I have the next big thing for you here TMT http://www.buycaliforniabonds.com/ some comedy gold from S&P on that site, apparently California is a better credit risk than it was in 2003, okey dokey Date Rating January 2010 A- February 2009 A May 2006 A+ August 2004 A July 2003 BBB December 2002 A April 2001 A+ September 2000 AA August 1999 AA- July 1996 A+ July 1994 A July 1992 A+ December 1991 AA July 1986 AAA February 1985 AA+ January 1983 AA January 1980 AA+ May 1968 AAA Edited January 25, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 dont worry about nadeem, I have the next big thing for you here TMT http://www.buycaliforniabonds.com/ Do you get to sh*g a Hollywood star of your choosing with every bond you buy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Everyone and his dog is going for the "10% correction soon".... http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/2011/01/24/bearish-chorus-grows-janjuah-demark-lowry-etc/ 10% is the in-thing. Probably will be 15% now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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