Pablo-silver or lead?

Well done and as this thing has only just begun, in 18 months you'll get another 10 to 15k off. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Adrian Coles, director general of the BSA, said: 'An active housing market is good news for first-time buyers’ No it isn’t, an inactive one for a couple of years means they will get property at a 35% discount from the peak! Adrian Coles, director general of the BSA, said: ‘More sophisticated affordability criteria are helping more people onto the property ladder’. No, more lax lending criteria by institutions that should know better, is allowing tens of thousands of people to take on huge debts, many of which will ruin their lives. Adrian Coles, director general of the BSA, said: 'Once on, existing homeowners will benefit from above inflation returns’. Except in areas where this isn’t currently happening. He’s a Vested Interest giving out investment advice, buyer beware. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The reality is the BOE MPC arn't going to be facing the voters in 3 years time. This time arround (2006) the Uk property market and the sentiment which underpins it is hypersensetive to IR movments. Last time arround (1988 to 1994) rates were moved up and down in .5% and 1% graduations with little warning. Now the BOE MPC know that having allowed a credit bubble and rampant HPI to develope in the UK, the cost of warding off general inflation (via IR rises) is going to be painfull for many. But it has to be done and .25% graduations up or down now have a big affect. IR in the UK will be 5% by end 06 and probably 6 to 6.5% by end of 07. There is a whole generation of highly indebted First and second time buyers, not to mention thousands of amature, inexperiance BTL's that are going to learn about the reality of debt and economics the hard way. The MPC have alowed the UK consumers to dig themselves a huge hole. Now the little Englander game is over and in World Cup year Global forces are afoot. Boy will the feckless, naive and stupid have some stories to tell come the peak of the next cycle in 2018/19. Nothing changes, you have been warned. Govern yourselves acordingly! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Sorry left school at 16 unable to write. Now 40's still unable to spell. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Ok so its 'benchmarked market value is circa' £320 k in todays market. The EA/Vendor a flying a kite at £390k to see if a mug will bite. If someone pays £390k for at house at the top that is worth £320k and prices fall 30% (and they will certanly do this in the markets that have gone up the most) then they'll be holding a house worth about £208k and all the purchase costs. Easy up easy down, as many areas have simply risen on a tide of artificially cheap money post 9/11. That historic blip in normal IR setting behavior is over. If the comming storm belongs to one man its the previous US Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. I gurantee most of the muppet BTL investors and 'young Professional' couples buying overpriced terraces and £220K lux/Exec/Metro Central Living 2 bed appartment in Northern cities never heard of the guy. Pablo Silver or Lead?

A Sheffield house at Bath prices. That didn't happen last time arround, so yes this time it really is different. You'll be able to buy one of those for £195k at the bottom in 2008. Pablo Silver or Lead?

LION your personal situation is, well that really. It has no baring on the market or the pent up pressure that is going drive the outcome of this cycle. Why didnt you fix on some of the recent 10 year rates. You cant seriously beleive that IR and therfore mortgage rates will be lower in 2 years than the historically low rates we've just seen? Your job may well be secure and you may well get above inflation pay rises/promotions. But that won't stop your 198k property becomeing a 138k property with a 30% drop. You may think that lots of other people like you will keep piling in to hold up property prices. There arn't enough people out there. Pablo Silver or Lead?

TTRTR looks reasonable value theres a 2 bedder in BOLTON for 300K! Pablo Silver or Lead?

This will become a common refrain from people in positions of exposure, now this train wreck is about to hit the buffers. Building Society CEO "irresponsible lending, not us, I've been warning of these problems for a couple of week's now!" Reporter "three of your borrowers have commited suicide quoting repossesion as the reson, you're bad debts are up 400% and lending down a further 55%. Do you feel responsible in any way because of 6 years of feckless lending?" Building Society CEO "Wheres the company Doctor, Lawyer and PR person!" Its going to be much worse than last time especially in the northern cities where everyone (even the biggest bulls) know that its over. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Market Peak S east, S west, E/W midlands 2004. Market Peak N E + N W 2005 Market Peak NI/Scot 2006 The differential between prices in many areas of the north and south have become almost none existent. Prices in many areas of the south have been bobing along the 'top' for a couple of years now, whilst the north has almost caught up. This crash (unlike the last one) will be led from the north. The places that have gone up the most will come down the most. The die is cast. We've had property inflation due to artificially cheap money post 9/11. Now we have general global inflation which only means one thing hire IR the longer the MPC delay (out of step with everone else) the higher and longer they'll have to go. Oil at crippling prices and massively rising unemployment. Its always hard to seeit as its happening, it here now. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Yep he knows US IR are going up a couple of notches. He is now trying to play catch up on warning of irrational exuberance in the housing market. In the Uk we're behind the game although the BOE Gov has been dishing out warnings for some time, just no one listened. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Prediction you'll be able to buy one in 2008 for £160K. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Infation in US UP = US IR UP. The UK is not immune our IR should have continued to rise steadily (and now be at 5%). Instead they were dropped last year .25% to stand at 4.5%. The longer the BOE MPC delay the tightening the longer and higher rates will have to increase. Meanwile no ammount of tough talk from the Gov of BOE is preventing lemmings getting sucked in. I make a prediction IR will not go above 9% in the next 3 years but they will probably get to between 6 and 7% in the next 2 to 3 years. It will be much worse than last time. The've only just started to shake the tree! Anyone who's got in BTL in the last 4 years and is heavily geared . Any Ftb who bought in the last 4 years and's borrowed a shed full. If you've buit equity sold, turned the leverage property into paid off debt and cash, great, 90% have'nt and you're ****'d. The more paper equtity you've built up due to artifficially low IR the more the paper value of you're property will drop. Negative equity will be the headlines soon (Express, Mail etc). I said when I joined the course is set its out of TB, GB and the BOE MPC control. The N/E and N/W with their prices stretched from market fundimental will lead the way. See you at the bottom. We've all had plenty of warning. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Andy NcNab there's more action at the friday night Aldershot NAFFI Disco than thats guys seen. A grade 1 Bull$itter who let the Regiment down badly. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Jonathan trees you obviously don't beleive what you just posted or you're stupid! There are many places in the UK where today you can buy properties 10% lower than the peak this time arround. This thing has only just got started. Parking streched fundimentals for a moment. The fact that Osama has stated the best weapon against the US (and other western oil importers) is Oil at Circa $100 a barrel. And he has the organisation to make that happen, is goint to be a key factor. If oil over the next two years averages above $75 dollars per barrel (irespective of central banks playing with interest rates) we will see up to 50% come off some property in the UK, Spain and the US. get real and get rid of property to pay down debt! Pablo Silver or Lead.

HA HA, Miles Slipslide there speaks a man trying to talk the market up until he can cash in his first tranche of stock options. He's an intelligent guy he dosent actually beleive any of this Bull$hit. New asking prices in the last month! So what! If they measured and quoted the volume, amount and value of price reductions on the existing instructions it would show the real picture. Here's the highlights. "If its not selling a price drop is the best course of action" and if you drop the price after initial instruction it wont affect our % calculation! "It cant keep rising like this but will flatten out rather than fall" Wana bet! Right move are struggling to justify the cra* their own methodolgy/sample come up with. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Over 20,000 Brits own holiday villas/condos in Florida. Nothing selling. Real Estate Agents are openly talking abot a 30% + correction. Some small new developments have about 200 properties and 25% of them are for sale, with nothing shifting for 5 to 6 months. Many of these properties cost $1400 a month to keep empty (excluding mortgage). Many Brits MEWD the UK 3 bed semi to buy the Florida 5 bed detached, Oh dear! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Good news for Bears and people who predict an iminent market correction. We've been in the phoney war with all the conflicting data/anecdotes that brings, for about 6 months now. Property price are only going one way. If the economy stays on its current course, IR will go up (to between 5 and 6% over 18 months) - property will tank. If the economy does better than expected, IR will go up (to between 5.5 and 6.75% over 2 years)- property will tank further for longer. If the economy tanks reducing IR is not going to help much. Osama says he wants oil at $100 a barrel. He's realised the way to really hurt the west and get GW Bush's attention is to drive up and keep up the price of oil. If that happens property prices will fall 50%. Not that it will be much use to anyone as we'll have bigger problems than the price of houses. Anyone holding property they do not need should turn it into cash and pay down debt. Pablo Silver or Lead?

'An air of confidence' will no prevent the market re-ajusting these properties to prices that are based on fundimentals. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Pretentious. I hardly thing so being born in Lanchester but 'Wale twake it wasa complimeent pet!' Pablo Silver or Lead?

Spot on cupidstunt. The thing that amazes me is the amount of people that should know better charging head long in denial. Time is a great healer and greed generaly over comes fear! Some are new mugs some are old mugs coming back for another dose. It's like watching the same train crash in slow motion. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Why I man whean this booat comes in. The NE & the NW are gwan to be looking at drops of 35 to 40 %. Whoowal generation of buyers are goowin twa be left with a very little fishy! This time it's very different in the north (values in many southern areas stopped going up 2.5 years ago) values are out of all relation to fundimentals. Wham gana see wha at the bwottom! Pablo Silver of Lead

Merv is just ensuring that when rates go up as they will and property price crash as a result. No one can say he hasn't consistently warned people about over extending their exposure to debt to buy an asset the value of which is just a matter of opinion. Debt is real____! Pablo Silver of Lead?

MPC will have to raise rates .25% in the next 3 to 4 months. They will have to do the same again at the end of this year/early 07. 5% IR's are still historically low but it's the diferrential from the recent low point that counts. IR were lowered too far, for too long after 9/11, this followed by last years mistake of a cut (against the grain of rises) is going to be the ruin of many who bough more debt. There is no reason rates couldnt go to 5.5 or 6 % by end of 07. No one should whinge about this, these are still low rates! Come on bulls Buy, Buy, Buy Bye Bye Buy to Let, hello to affordable housing to those who have the resources! Pablo Silver or Lead?

And whilst your at it ask for a deposit from the LL. Returnable at the end of the tenancy, if the property has not been repo'd by the lender. Just as LL need to check renters you should vet your LL, referances? Pablo Silver or Lead?