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House Price Crash Forum


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About nimmmm

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  1. I am saying that CP yields are already at 10% and will likely go higher before bottoming. However, I think that we are approaching the bottom of the market. CP market contains less amateurs than the resi, and hence goes into dip before resi and comes out quicker.
  2. Commercial property is starting to bottom - yields now over 10% in many places. Next 12-24 months will be a good time to buy into Reits for the longer term.
  3. Thanks for the messages of support for the new practice. Hopefully I will be very busy! The picture's Noddy.
  4. We did not lose at Dunkirk, it was a draw. Ish. I am setting up my own practice as an insolvency lawyer. I think that the time is ripe and there should be a good work flow. However, I do not foresee a severe recession for a number of reasons. Principally, UK companies are in reasonably good shape. Employment is high, and interest rates are headed lower. Inevitably the lack of finance available to business from the credit crunch will cause the economy to slow. However, unemployment will be the real barometer of the economy. I think that we will see some job losses, and a difficult 2008, but that the economy will start to pick up gradually again towards the end of the year. I will be very surprised if we have 2 quarters of negative growth at all, ergo no recession.
  5. Who knows why, but the Guardian says so, so it must be true. It might also be due to people realising that property is vastly overpriced, and reducing their asking prices in order to try and shift it, as they understand that so many buyers cannot afford the high prices that they are asking, and that banks will not lend to those buyers. Just a thought...
  6. http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/dec/1...prices.property The crash is gathering speed... However, house prices usually drop in December!
  7. 20-25% will not be almost immediate - housing bubbles take a long time to deflate as it takes time for people to get used to the idea that prices are dropping. Prices will start to fall when BTL demand is clipped, which is starting to happen now after the credit crunch. Once they start to fall, demand will evaporate, which will push them down further. Any forced selling might turn a correction into a rout.
  8. I should give it a go. But not before filling up on your full allocation of premium bonds, which is more fun (with cheques hopefuly coming through the door monthly). This "guaranteed" RPI proof investment, with tax free, is too good to pass up inthe current enviornment!
  9. Just walked passed Northern Rock branch on the way into work - a line of pensioners had formed intent upon taking their savings out. Nearly wet myself with laughter
  10. Hogg Robinson arrange travel for businesses, from air fares to train fares. They are not to my knowledge involved in discretionary spending. The reason they are not doing well is because they are crap at what they do - you can find a much cheaper fare online very easily.
  11. Gordon will not have any choice. Once he is out of number 11, he will wash his hands of the economy. He is smart enough to know that no economy goes one way indefinitely, and is surely aware that the CPI is honed to produce the best result possible for him as chancellor. Should food prices inflate, which I believe they will, energy costs remain high, which they are, and Chinese exports become more expensive, not to mention the appearance of more aggressive wage claims as are being seen in the public sector, the Bank of England will have no choice; high inflation is inevitable for the foreseeable future. Higher interest rates are on the cards and I think that it is too early for anyone to predict a peak.
  12. I would have thought that the position for homeowners is quite simple - if the market crashes, trade up if you are not in negative equity, and if you want a bigger place, and think your job is secure enough. If you end up in negative equity, stay put and pay your mortgage. If you are not on the property ladder, but want to be, save for your deposit, and get in at the bottom of the market. Otherwise keep saving until you can afford something. Whatever you do, STR is a very dangerous strategy. Remember, unless you have a portfolio of properties, you would be gamling with your home. Your home is not really an investment, it is an expense!
  13. House prices in the US are dropping at 11% per month - even the BBC say this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6688479.stm The pace of decline over here may be just as rapid
  14. Personal insolvencies are still going through the roof, but corporate insolvencies are dropping off... http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=195116
  15. So did you buy your new place, or still just renting? Still in sunny Stratford?
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