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Pablo-silver or lead?

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  1. I'm 50 so not a boomer, it's been said many times before the over 60's have all the equity and the under 40's all the debt. Its the biggest (intergenerational) debt for equity swap ever. I have mant friends and aquaintences late 20's to 70+. Heres my take: Under say 27/28 hopefully they've missed the opportunity (too young) to load up with cheap debt to buy a very expensive box, with the cheap debt about to get expensive. 28 to 35 many have (some with parental assistance) fully loaded with debt to buy a box or really streached to go the next rung to a box with an extra room (so more debt). Many 35's to early 40's are f++ed, many have young families and are now £250 (to get a modest 3 bed family house) to £ 350k in debt (to get what we all percive to be a trophy decent sizes 3 to 4 bed detached). The sort of place for which the OP parents and those arround them was the norm!!! In 1964 my parents bought (FTB) a big (with big garden) 3 bed semi, they later traded up to a 4 bed detached (they never borrowed more that 3 times income (on below averge wages). I in 1983 bought FTB a 1 bed flat 3 x income (traded up to 4 bed detached without streching too much). My kids are 19 to 24, what chance have they got? I don'y know what my point is really, but I just think that this situation is extreemly negative in all sorts of ways. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  2. NOT JUST SPAIN! Written in 2006 Well over a million Britain’s now own holiday homes abroad. Our love affair with owning ‘a place in the sun’ has never been greater. As ever Spain, France, Italy and Portugal are proving popular. More recently as prices have been pushed up in these countries we’ve looked further a field. To places like Slovenia and Croatia in what was the old Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. You can’t beat the Dalmatian coast only don’t dig too deep in the back garden, as mass graves are commonplace and 20,000 bodies are still unaccounted for. They don’t put that in the sales presentation. Recently Latvia, Bulgaria and Romania are being pushed as the next hot, ‘Fly to Buy/Fly to Let’ leading edge locations. When buying abroad its important to recognise that the laws, processes, customs and practice, for the transfer of unencumbered title to land and property, are not the same as in the UK. We hear horror stories, where unsuspecting Brits having bought abroad, only to find themselves with no end of problems, having either been duped or failed to take appropriate precautions. Be it problems with the escritura (title deed) or building permits in Spain, Villas built on war expropriated land in Northern Cyprus or inheritance/tax issues in Monrovia. As mentioned earlier with countries like Romania and Bulgaria now being pushed as destinations to buy holiday homes, the term Caveat Emptor has never been more appropriate. If you’re not entirely happy with the reputation for honesty of Estate Agents at home here in the UK, wait till you meet some of the ex Transylvanian Donkey rustlers selling unsuspecting Brits holiday homes in Tulcea and Constanta on the Black Sea! Where next? Ski lodges in Nagorno-Karabakh, just 8 days yak ride from Baku international airport. Or Beach Villas on the Aral’s Sea health Spa, specialising in chemical body scrubs, with all the toxic pollution you can drink. “Prices start at 3 million Dram (£15,000), 10% discount if you buy off plan. Legal title guaranteed by The South Caucasus Development Corporation of Kazakhstan All deposits underwritten by the Bank of Chechnya, as advertised on Channel 4 by the regional goodwill ambassador Borat! Don’t miss this ground floor, investment opportunity of a lifetimeâ€â€¦â€¦â€¦.. I mean seriously they are now advertising apartments in Ulaan Baator Mongolia, to us Brits, as a fly to buy investment destination. The decedents of Genghis Khan must by laughing into their celebratory 'airag' (fermented mares milk) cocktails!!! Don’t let the next, up and coming, leading edge location that’s being pushed as a must have investment, turn from leading to bleeding edge for you! I can only think that on arrival in a hot country the caution we would normally exercise when about to spend (and in most cases borrow) a life changing amount of money, goes out of the window. Maybe it’s the heat, the warm sea, the swaying palms and unfamiliar, intoxicating, aromas of the exotic, which relaxes our guard. Alternatively it could just be that our natural caution is blunted by materialistic desire, brought on by greed, masking itself as a dream in which many temporarily part company with commonsense. There are many great investment opportunities out there, but to safely take advantage of them you need to exercise the same level of caution and due diligence, you would back home and then some! MAD DOGS & BRITS!!!
  3. When we sold up in Florida (Property and business) in late 2005. Everyone said we were mad prices would keep going up because 800 people a day arrived to live in the state and that would keep up demand and prices!!!........ We soon discovered that in our move to Florida we had joined a huge multi ethnic migration. We were part of the diverse, ethnic melting pot that makes Central Florida so vibrant. It didn’t take long to realise there were essentially three components to this mass influx to Florida. The first is Hispanic, from Puerto Rico, Cuba, Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) and Central/South America. The second are from poor areas of the white trash south. Many people figure why starve in Lake Providence Louisiana, Coahoma Mississippi or Cotton Plant Arkansas, when for the price of a tank of gas you can pile all your worldly belongings on the back of a pick-up, move to Florida and rich pickings! Many of the ‘new’ Floridian ‘residents’ seem to us to lead transient existences, moving between $20 a night, roach pit motels and no questions asked Trailer Parks. Many in this underclass must wake up each morning without the price of a crack rock or cup of coffee to get them through the day. They lead ‘If I don’t rob I don’t get high’, existences, and sobering up to the reality of their marginalised, hand to mouth lives was to be avoided. These first two groups, are essentially economic migrants. They need work or a least to have economic activity to feed off of, and the US; especially high growth areas like Orlando seem to have the ability to absorb a huge amount, of cheap low skilled labour. The third group are from the North and Mid West US, consisting of fifth and sixth generation Americans. They are essentially white, pale face, liver spot speckled, golfing retiree’s, ‘El Gringo Yankee!’ They’re called Elma, Martha, and Wilmer. Their partners Doug, Bob and Hank sport baggy shorts with elasticised waists. Their loud short sleeve shirts are set off by high browed baseball hat, displaying various tribes, USS Enterprise, Cincinnati Bengal’s (is that a curry house) and Ram Dodge Trucks. They relocate from New York, Massachusetts, Illinois and other northern states. Where the winters chill can be hard on old bones. Having ‘snowbirded’ in Florida for a few winters they sell up, leave the northeastern cities and come to the Sunshine state to live the ‘Golden Girls’ life of active retirement. Hispanic influence and culture is so engrained in Florida, In fact it wasn’t until Article II, section 9 of the Florida Constitution was passed in 1988 that English became the official language of the State. Having said that there are still places in the state where 90% of the population speak Spanish as their first language. .....I predicted that prices would fall 50% and they have...... Pablo Silver or Lead?
  4. Understated well-off Brits = Old Money Current Sandbankistas = New Debt As they say, You can't buy class!!!
  5. Between 1989 and 1993/4 i.e. GC1 prices fell 40 to 50% (nominal) on Sandbanks, Branksome Park and Canford Cliffs etc. This time they're puffed up even higher at the peak as nearly all have been purchased using leverage based on business wealth based on leverage.........in a massively de-leveraging world.... It will be carnage! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  6. Between 1989 and 1993/4 i.e. GC1 prices fell 40 to 50% (nominal) on Sandbanks, Branksome Park and Canford Cliffs etc. This time they're puffed up even higher at the peak as nearly all have been purchased using leverage based on business wealth based on leverage.........in a massively de-leveraging world.... It will be carnage! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  7. When I lived in florida in 2004/5. I predicted to all who would listnen that property prices were unsustainably high and they woul fall 35%. To a man/woman they all said prices would not fall in Florida. One of the reasons put forward was that 800 people a day moved to florida and that would keep prices high. I pointed out that at least half of them were econmic migrants from The hispanic Caribbean and South Central/South America and a quater of them arrived from the poorer cotten and rust belt south and mid-west areas of the USA. You would see pick-ups loaded with kids and kitchen sinks driving down the I-4. The only thing missing in most cases, but not all was Granny in a rocker with a pump-action. They couldnt afford to buy and many move from trailer park to $20 buck motel looking for work. Now the economy is tit$$-up, crime will go through the roof. But at least the Good-Ole Florida Rednecks have the 'free-fire' castle doctrine laws brought in by Jeb Bush (George's smarter brother) with which to defend their little peice of swamp and scrub! oh and I was proved wrong prices have fallen 50%.
  8. Please feel free to correct me. In the last crash (1989 - 1993 ish) and on a nominal basis was not the average fall (for the UK) only circa 17 %? (It was only on the ground in the real world that you could buy hundreds of thousands of properties at circa 25 - 50% (not taking into account inflation) below their previous peaks). So this time just 8 to 12 months in and we appeard to be at -12.7% and by Xmas we will surely be at -17% yoy, surley it is genuinely going to be much worse this time, in terms of peak to bottom nominal falls?
  9. The last crash circa 1989 to 1994 saw the country split in half. London/SE, South West, East & West Midlands and East Anglia all fell the most as they had risen the most. Prices in Scotland and the North East & West of England continued to rise (for 18months or so and did not fall as much when the 'ripple' from London hit them) even as prises in the lower half of the UK fell. This had a smothing effect on the UK average price stats. This is why despite their being hundreds of thousands of properties in London/SE, South West, East & west Midlands and East Anglia for sale during 1991/92/93 at 25 to 50% lower than their peak, with few buyers' the stats show that on average UK prices only fell circa 17% in GC1. The reality in 1992 across most of the Uk was that you could buy pretty much any type of property at 30% (un-inflation adjusted) below its 1988/89 peak. The worst effected were studios (unselable) and frothy trophy properties i.e Sandbanks Poole etc. Pablo Silver of Lead?
  10. I think the way things are going in the media and on the ground (the sheeple are waking to the reality) that by Jan 2009, -25% from peak late 2007 to end 2009 will be the generaly accepted widom for bottom. However as in the last crash as sentiment turned, the depth and time frame for reaching the bottom kept shifting out and down. So -30 to 35% is distinctly possible, and by Jan 2009 -50% forcaste may be the current -35%!!! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  11. WaitingToUpSize Thanks for the explanation. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  12. Amidst all the gloom of the FTSE today, all three B&B shares were among the few that rose. What are the two B&B shares with figures 11.625% and 13% behind them. They seem to go up 5 pounds each day! To see them select the FTSE all share and scroll down to see 3 B&B's http://www.moneyextra.com/stocks/atoz_a/
  13. Not sure about expensive trophy houses in areas like Sandbanks (even second and third homes) being bought for cash! In my experiance the people who purchase these are very highly geered indeed, OPM and all that!
  14. From DORSET to Disney! Hurricanes, Huckster’s and Hillbillies Two years in Orlando! In January 2004 I along with my wife and twelve year old daughter joined the tens of thousands of other Brits heading for a ‘Place in the Sun’. After considering the, simpler, rural, laid back ideal ‘offered’ by the usual suspects, of France, Spain and Italy, we eventually settled on the Southern USA. Orlando Florida to be precise, in the shadow of Walt’s World, the home of the Big Eared Mouse’. We had unwittingly stepped onto a cultural reorientation and learning curve so steep as to make a shuttle launch look like a 50p fire cracker! The Story covers three years (2003-05) and comes full circle, including our experiences of :- Double dealing ‘Visa Consultants’. Written quote from our visa consultant. “Sorry I can’t explain why I consistently lied to you in my emails, and why your application was delayed 10 months, please send me a cheque for $7500, or I will report you to US immigration and have you deported!” Lying cheating ‘Real Estate’ professionals. Quote “This $350,000 villa won’t cost you a cent. Re-mortgage your UK home, put 20% down and self certify the loan. The holiday rentals from 35 to 40 weeks a year bookings will cover your costs and you’ll have free holidays for your family”. “In fact if you buy two I’ll furnish them free of charge, sign here”. Thousands of Brits a day arrive in Florida; they are lambs to the slaughter. Great Floridian Weather, hard frosts in the winter! Followed by 100% humidity and three Hurricanes in our first summer!!! We had Charley, Francis and Jeanne go right over the top of us (Ivan missed). Apart from the damage, there were stranded guests, grocery shortages, no fuel, 50 mile tail backs, curfews, water/power cuts, looters etc. Amongst all this we were running a property management company responsible for 35 villas all owned by fellow Brits and full of holiday makers. Poverty like the third world (In the richest country). Thousands of people holding down two to three jobs, being paid cash weekly (they can’t afford bank accounts), to pay the rent and feed the kids. Invalid, Octogenarian grocery packers at Wall Mart/Win-Dixie, carrying our heavy groceries to the truck, wearing badges saying “Don’t tip me, carry out is a free service”. If they didn’t work they couldn’t buy the medication they need to live! Trailer park, White Trash, Redneck Ghettos. Just outside the tourist corridors/areas many locals live in manufactured homes or trailer parks. Where conditions are reminiscent of the Grapes of Wrath meets the Hillbillies from Deliverance. My 13 year old daughter went to a junior high school with 1800 pupils (she had up until then been in UK prep schools with under 200 children, what a learning experience for her). She met a girl in her year whose mother was 12 when she was borne. That’s not all, she had a brother who was 2 years older! Expats The British expats fall into two categories. The first are there to rip off anyone they can and especially other newbie, wetback Brits. The second are hardworking honest people scrapping together a marginal living off the back of the tourist industry because financially they can’t return to the UK. Wildlife in suburbia. We had gators in the garden, turtles as big as dustbin lids in the garage, black widow spiders, and snakes in the house and swimming pool. If that wasn’t enough on trash days there would be up to 25, 6 foot wing span ‘Turkey Vultures’ sitting on the roof. Also racoons, armadillos and panthers. No wonder the locals carry guns! Add to this, reams of regulation, licensing and multi-tier government generated paper chases. A compensation culture where to sue is the first option and insurance the best defence. A gun culture where Jeb Bush the Governor supported a new ‘Castle Doctrine self defence law’! Described by critics as a, ‘Shoot first ask questions later!’ charter. That effectively makes Florida a ‘Free fire’ zone for vigilantes and will increase the number of ‘disputes’ between neighbours that end in shootings. You just have to drive down the road to witness prison chain gangs, poor black crop pickers toiling in the fields, bank robberies and car-jacking all in the shadow of the big eared mouse, Disney World!
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