tio Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 I couldn't find this link in a site search and I couldn't find a suitable thread title but still .. hpc pr0N Could U.K. House Prices Fall Again By Another 20%? Housing-Market / UK Housing Apr 13, 2012 - 09:15 AM By: Andrew_Butter http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34103.html Quote
thecrashingisles Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 One thing's for sure - if they fall 20% it won't stop there. Quote
KingBingo Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Again? They are up on 2007/08 round my way. Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Again? They are up on 2007/08 round my way. That would be asking prices, yes? Quote
FedupTeddiBear Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 That would be asking prices, yes? If KB lives anywhere near me, (E. Berks/ Hants) it's also sold prices. Quote
winkie Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Again? They are up on 2007/08 round my way. ...there will always be the 'special areas' the 'special houses', areas where people can afford to sit tight and still ask a large sum of money that would be worth moving for......always will be the money flushed buyers where money is no object who fall 'hook line and sinker'..... but becoming fewer and farther between. Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 If KB lives anywhere near me, (E. Berks/ Hants) it's also sold prices. How odd. I'm in Hants and prices are well down from the peak. Quote
winkie Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 More like 30-40%. Property will fall further, property falls with availability of funds, rising interest rates, high commodity costs and basic cost of living, low pay rises, higher unemployment and the ability of people to keep up with their rent payments.....all of that means rising house prices does not have much going for it, they will fall back down what the people can pay.....can't pay won't pay...simples. Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 How odd. I'm in Hants and prices are well down from the peak. Whenever people make these kind of statements either way they should provide data. http://imgur.com/4KZgM That's for all of Hampshire 1995 to Feb 2012. Slight dip in 2009 but then back up again to insane levels. Tried uploading these files as jpg / gif / png all failed. Is there any image hosting site HPC forum trusts that we can use to dump graphs to? Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Whenever people make these kind of statements either way they should provide data. http://imgur.com/4KZgM That's for all of Hampshire 1995 to Feb 2012. Slight dip in 2009 but then back up again to insane levels. Tried uploading these files as jpg / gif / png all failed. Is there any image hosting site HPC forum trusts that we can use to dump graphs to? I prefer to judge local prices on what they're actually doing, rather than looking at a graph! Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 I prefer to judge local prices on what they're actually doing, rather than looking at a graph! But this is sales from the land registry. Admittedly some repos and other anomalies might not be captured but it's close, no? Local prices don't confirm sales prices so something like rightmove is not as accurate. Don't you like data Bruce? Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Don't you like data Bruce? Not when the data is manipulated in an attempt to convince me that what I'm seeing with my own eyes is not true! Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Not when the data is manipulated in an attempt to convince me that what I'm seeing with my own eyes is not true! Do you really not believe the land registry? I'm not trusting of much of what we see in the media but why is the land registry not giving a clear picture? For example in West Hull it shows a 30% drop since 2008. Genuine question! Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Do you really not believe the land registry? I'm not trusting of much of what we see in the media but why is the land registry not giving a clear picture? For example in West Hull it shows a 30% drop since 2008. Genuine question! I believe the Land Registry for specific sales but not their general figures which do not, as you said, include repossessions and other transactions that they class as unrepresentative. I wonder what the real drop is for West Hull if you include the transactions they exclude. Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 I believe the Land Registry for specific sales but not their general figures which do not, as you said, include repossessions and other transactions that they class as unrepresentative. I wonder what the real drop is for West Hull if you include the transactions they exclude. Ok I can see that but repos would be more likely in a falling market. So if an area has fallen by 30% you can no doubt extrapolate further "hidden" falls. Such an extrapolation would have to be smaller in a market that has risen slightly. Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Ok I can see that but repos would be more likely in a falling market. So if an area has fallen by 30% you can no doubt extrapolate further "hidden" falls. Such an extrapolation would have to be smaller in a market that has risen slightly. If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation. Quote
winkie Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation. ..is property sold by auction shown on the land registry?....house down the road sold for 30% less than the house next door did six months previously, it had a bigger garden as well, brought down the whole average value of the street that did. Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation. Agree. Data transparency in the UK is poor. However surely if there were a massive detachment between auction prices and selling prices arbitrageurs would move in and close the gap. Yes credit is restricted but not to those already in "pwopertie". So what's the gap in percentage points in your opinion? Quote
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Agree. Data transparency in the UK is poor. However surely if there were a massive detachment between auction prices and selling prices arbitrageurs would move in and close the gap. Yes credit is restricted but not to those already in "pwopertie". So what's the gap in percentage points in your opinion? Well, I see prices down 20% in my area and people provide graphs to show they've gone up 5%, so I could hazard a guess at 25%. You don't need to exclude many low value repossessions in a low volume market to distort the figures massively. Quote
KingBingo Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 That would be asking prices, yes? Sold. SE London / Kent. Quote
bmf Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Well, I see prices down 20% in my area and people provide graphs to show they've gone up 5%, so I could hazard a guess at 25%. You don't need to exclude many low value repossessions in a low volume market to distort the figures massively. True - low volume makes avg price less indicative either up or down. Quote
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