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House Price Crash Forum


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About KingBingo

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  1. Yeah, I work in finance. I personally think its absurd the amount of people that work in finance. All these bright people should be working in engineering, or medical research, or farming, or anything else that was vaguely useful to society. However, the important point, one that is I think too often over looked on this board, is that we have to deal with the way the world actually is, and not how we would like it to be. So while I would much prefer a nominal HPC a return to the gold standard, an end to big government, a greatly reduced financial sector, we also have to consider that inste
  2. Well I have made no attempt to hide it either, I did start a post about it and even mentioned it in various other posts. But to be fair its not like I am a over-leveraged BTL LL desperately clutching at straws. I am a long time HPC'er who came to the conclusion that the house market could stay rigged, and politicians and central bankers could remain corrupt longer than I was prepared to wait. So for full disclosure, I came to this view earlier this year and started looking around. I exchanged contracts last week. However, I did protect myself by skipping the starter homes like flats and 2-
  3. Which is why I showed that the growth in the housing stock is less than the growth in population. If anything the divisor decreases. Really?? look at the growth of broad money since 1960, more or less doubles every 7 years. Are you really going to say that its different this time. We have had these kind of economic fook ups before since 1960, and every time the state responds with more and more money. Now is this the end of the road....maybe, but I don't think we are necessarily there yet, maybe not even within my lifetime, this paper money thing could run for ages yet. Well they spo
  4. I knew you would say that! I know it must seem like a fair point, but I genuinely bough because of my views, I did not buy and then come to my views. I did not buy thinking I could single handedly turn the whole of HPC into the greater fool. (which seems a wildly ambitious undertaking even for someone of my stature) I would suggest that's pretty easy to prove in my case, I have been on this board engaging in the economic what not's for yonks now. I've been through every case for a crash that has been produced on this site since well before I even signed up my account years ago so I could p
  5. Much the same at first guess. However, the US like say Spain and Ireland also had construction booms. We did not. Which is why I showed only 1.8m dewellings being built over those 13 years. It a proof of something I has thought for a while. That the money supply got houses up, but dracionian planning restriction are helping keep them there....along with many other policies, a huge one being money printing, i.e. Even more money growth.
  6. I did a little looking at the growth of the board money supply in the UK economy, and compared it to UK house prices. Principally comparing 1997 to 2010. My main sources are here: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-kingdom/broad-money and here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php and here: http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/housebuildingq42010 When you start to look at the power of monetisation it starts to look convincing that we are not going to see the nominal falls people are waiting for. In nominal terms a house
  7. Yes, but our currency is still priced as if we are ice-cream in a bowl, easy scope to see the pound tumble, and the OP's point is a good one. At least for London and the surrounding area, there would likely be a disconnect for the rest of the country. They could just unwind QE if they really had to in order contract the money supply. But they won't do that, or put up interest rates as they would just argue (and the BBC would pull out the stops to help them) that its all external factors and we haver to live with paying more for Gas and imported toiletries. They might levy some windfall t
  8. I don't think the people at the BBC buy any other paper ever, do you? Its basically their entire research department.
  9. Yes, I have not taken leave of my sense altogether. Even though I expect a 85% chance rates will remain near zero for the 10 years of my fix. I have insurance for that, and a wife that can work. Yes, and that might be true for another 10/20 years, I cannot wait forever.
  10. They can do that now......and don't 'get it'. A mate of mine tries explain that exact concept to vendors every day. He points out that if they offer less for the house they are buying they can afford to sell for less. To a boomer they fail to understand. They just listen smiling then say "but I need to sell for X to get the new house".
  11. I doubt investor want a particular yield and if its unachievable they sit empty for ever ( well a few probably do). Nor do I feel LL desire a certain yield, then refuse to take a penny more, they just charge the maximum they think they can get away with. No there would likely be few rentible houses and few renters. Can't say if rents go up or down from that. Maybe prices half because all mortgages are banned, and all sales are cash sales, if so the young become even more dependant on LL's until they get to 40 and have saved up the £130k required.
  12. No its not, rent is based on what renters are prepared to pay to home themselves given their alternatives. A decision to become a BTL LL should be based on yield.
  13. By the same token they are not going to be under any pressure to sell 'for less than its worth'......
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